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DDweatherman

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  1. DDweatherman
    Benchmark. 40/70 lat/lon. Textbook for NESIS/KU events.
  2. DDweatherman
    @mitchnick just in the spirit of your post I weenied you too. That said, like I always say…we want every piece of guidance to go in our favor. The LOW itself doesn’t necessarily have to trend that far west for big improvements at surface. We just need clean phasing and early negative tilting/a little sharper trough.
  3. DDweatherman
    If I get 5” out of this, I’ll consider it a nice win. Was expecting very little and high bust potential 36-48 hours ago…regardless of what the gfs was saying. That said, whoever gets into the IVT is going to have fun, and I hope I can enjoy a bit of that. This is going to be a dynamic system. At least my thermals will be “good” relative to many areas.
  4. DDweatherman
    Excellent. I “felt like” 0z was kind of a blip. @Ampedi believe said it well, the h5 didn’t really lead to believing a 50-75 east shift was warranted. Let’s correct back west. let’s add another 1.5” at 12z
  5. DDweatherman
    Absolutely. It’s one of the most complex setups you’ll see. The one thing I like is how potent this is. Hope we nudge west today, and see a path to how we could.
  6. DDweatherman
    Yep, elevation dependent boom scenarios, subsidence zones, you name it. This one has it all. Winners and losers are guaranteed. Just hope the losers hit their respective bars
  7. DDweatherman
    They don’t mean much except to indicate latest trends perhaps. Might see the 12z Nam come back west some here in a bit.
  8. DDweatherman
    There’s a 4-8” zone west of a 2-5” zone for sure. Then another 4-8” zone on 95 with boom potential especially east.
  9. DDweatherman
    I think there’s gonna be some winners west of the bay. Certainly losers, probably out by me somewhere (but perhaps a big IVT winner). that is a nice improvement on the uk ens. Our HQ out in Neptune/Asbury NJ is going to get destroyed in this one…they have already have an above climo season leading in
  10. DDweatherman
    I mean, sure…but a 980 low off ocmd is better than most miller B situations. This thing matures extremely quickly. Should be good enough to not give us a complete screw job here
  11. DDweatherman
    Agreed. I do think there’s going to be a big winner on the west side with the norlun. They’re notorious for big totals where they park, and not going to see much more of an intense storm associated with one than this one.
  12. DDweatherman
    Notoriously the overzealous RAP haha. One of the worst pieces of guidance of course. What do the 9z srefs show?
  13. DDweatherman
    What I’m trying to figure out is how intense bands will be at the outer edges, and where subsidence might also play with the influence of a low that intense bombing off the coast. having lobes of intense s/w energy in the flow should help make the precip field fairly expansive regardless.
  14. DDweatherman
    Yeah I’m glad 6z came back west as well. I saw an h5 of 6z UK, looked extremely amped but never saw a surface map.
  15. DDweatherman
    Bar IMBY is 3”, and IVT might have a lot to say about that. I do think the gfs is likely most accurate with early stage qpf that might get 1-2” down early on then root for the IVT. In that zone, someone is going to get dumped.
  16. DDweatherman
    In general, this set up is so fragile that microscopic differences upstream involving the phasing and tilting of the trough could have substantial surface differences, even in the final 24 hours.
  17. DDweatherman
    I think for our areas, it looks like the IVT is key but I do expect a wider swath on the western edge with all of the energy moving through. It is a classic pass.
  18. DDweatherman
    The euro did move back west from 0z, I didn’t look at frames but allsnow up in NYC said 50+ miles.
  19. DDweatherman
    Tom’s river NJ, or maybe Plymouth MA?
  20. DDweatherman
    I honestly don’t even like it that much at the surface given how good the damn h5 is. I guess we just need to see the sw dig south a bit more. OR that clipper piece could phase in…
  21. DDweatherman
    Oh my goodness that looks mint.
  22. DDweatherman
    There’s a shit ton of energy in the flow this run, hope it feeds into things.
  23. DDweatherman
    Yeah tell me about it, I know he follows this stuff extremely closely lol.
  24. DDweatherman
    They think ulcerative colitis, we knew he had an ulcer but middle of the night last night he spiked a big time fever.
  25. DDweatherman
    That is a nice look. Best we’ve seen yet from the hrrr. Way outside of range, but again a piece of guidance we want to in our camp like the rest.
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