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DDweatherman

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  1. DDweatherman
    6z RRFS map
  2. DDweatherman
  3. DDweatherman
    Basically, Euro folds to the GFS then the GFS folds to what the Euro or the warmer models were. Lost 1-2 inches in most places from 0z-6z gfs; 6” line moved NW. Lost 5” IMBY.
  4. DDweatherman
    The 6z suite quite frankly was a disaster for the sub forum. RRFS was its worst run yet. GFS was warmer, drier, and NW. Don’t want to give off panic, but I don’t like these trends after the best euro run yet.
  5. DDweatherman
    The 6z RRFS and ICON were not very good runs for the region.
  6. DDweatherman
    Why not just do it Sunday at 2pm? I do think that nowcast does bode well for us, less ML warm tongues out there.
  7. DDweatherman
    The model war will definitely continue into the final day, willing to bet.
  8. DDweatherman
    Even if these models are right, it’s such a bad idea to use them in their extended range. The HRRR is wrong often at hour 6 much less post hr 18.
  9. DDweatherman
    Down to 18 degrees here!
  10. DDweatherman
    That’s 18z again, but regardless they’re very close.
  11. DDweatherman
    Let’s get crushed by the GFS and let it be the beacon of consistency/improvement we like/need.
  12. DDweatherman
    Let’s be honest, most of the models you don’t like (I also hate what I saw) are the lowest of the JV suite.
  13. DDweatherman
    Yes, I saw it was 12-14 over us at 12z
  14. DDweatherman
    Just when we thought the models were picking up the impression of the high pressure and the damming.
  15. DDweatherman
    We made great progress at 12z and I liked the nams through 36. Let’s see what the jv models have vs the middle school model set.
  16. DDweatherman
    It always starts that way and losses to end that way too…. But let’s hope it’s doing NAM things…could be post truncation and outside the best range. We were hoping it was good 2 hours ago. Most of these mesos do in fact suck, and AND they’re at range.
  17. DDweatherman
    The NAM kinda does truncate at hour 36 I believe? Could make sense.
  18. DDweatherman
    I see that, we’d have some good growth, dendrite central. Can still see the NW crew pulling off 13-15:1 ratios.
  19. DDweatherman
    The euro was definitely an improvement. Another 25 miles south and it’s probably 15” all snow up these parts and 10” down to 20 miles N/W of the fall line.
  20. DDweatherman
    Yep, and it is a bit colder. I appreciated 12z for what we’re looking for here.
  21. DDweatherman
    Not a met but fortunately that high of a nose 750-800mb can allow refreezing of droplets in time for sleet to be the ptype. Lower noses around 900mb don’t allow that.
  22. DDweatherman
    Randy’s right, looks like we’re not bleeding in the wrong direction for Euro. 12z suite stopped that for the most part, and several models going back in the right direction.
  23. DDweatherman
    Love seeing it trend south with the big totals west of the apps as well.
  24. DDweatherman
    100%. Glad it made the other positive changes, moved snow totals south and did get wetter.
  25. DDweatherman
    Part of the reason I’m rather bullish on this getting a little colder and not giving a ton of credibility to the NAM runs thermals. For one, an incredibly anomalous airmass. Two, the wave and the LP aren’t that intense to flood the ML’s with a crazy warm nose. I think the cold will fight back here.
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