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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    I don’t hate what the Nam is doing through 27 vs 6z
  2. DDweatherman
    We take small wins here remember hopium is our favorite drug
  3. DDweatherman
    Need a return to Nam’ing this morning to keep momentum going. Cam’s could be very helpful in this one.
  4. DDweatherman
    I’d take even the Nam or 3k showing it vs relying on the LR HRRR
  5. DDweatherman
    I’ve been watching that, it’s a wildcard as it’s been close on a few runs. no bullshit my phone just autocorrected when I typed east to WEST. #itshappening
  6. DDweatherman
    Check again EJ
  7. DDweatherman
    No bullshit, you’ve been in since the beginning. You get a share of the name if this SOB trends and verifies boom scenarios in the sub.
  8. DDweatherman
    Benchmark. 40/70 lat/lon. Textbook for NESIS/KU events.
  9. DDweatherman
    @mitchnick just in the spirit of your post I weenied you too. That said, like I always say…we want every piece of guidance to go in our favor. The LOW itself doesn’t necessarily have to trend that far west for big improvements at surface. We just need clean phasing and early negative tilting/a little sharper trough.
  10. DDweatherman
    If I get 5” out of this, I’ll consider it a nice win. Was expecting very little and high bust potential 36-48 hours ago…regardless of what the gfs was saying. That said, whoever gets into the IVT is going to have fun, and I hope I can enjoy a bit of that. This is going to be a dynamic system. At least my thermals will be “good” relative to many areas.
  11. DDweatherman
    Excellent. I “felt like” 0z was kind of a blip. @Ampedi believe said it well, the h5 didn’t really lead to believing a 50-75 east shift was warranted. Let’s correct back west. let’s add another 1.5” at 12z
  12. DDweatherman
    Absolutely. It’s one of the most complex setups you’ll see. The one thing I like is how potent this is. Hope we nudge west today, and see a path to how we could.
  13. DDweatherman
    Yep, elevation dependent boom scenarios, subsidence zones, you name it. This one has it all. Winners and losers are guaranteed. Just hope the losers hit their respective bars
  14. DDweatherman
    They don’t mean much except to indicate latest trends perhaps. Might see the 12z Nam come back west some here in a bit.
  15. DDweatherman
    There’s a 4-8” zone west of a 2-5” zone for sure. Then another 4-8” zone on 95 with boom potential especially east.
  16. DDweatherman
    I think there’s gonna be some winners west of the bay. Certainly losers, probably out by me somewhere (but perhaps a big IVT winner). that is a nice improvement on the uk ens. Our HQ out in Neptune/Asbury NJ is going to get destroyed in this one…they have already have an above climo season leading in
  17. DDweatherman
    I mean, sure…but a 980 low off ocmd is better than most miller B situations. This thing matures extremely quickly. Should be good enough to not give us a complete screw job here
  18. DDweatherman
    Agreed. I do think there’s going to be a big winner on the west side with the norlun. They’re notorious for big totals where they park, and not going to see much more of an intense storm associated with one than this one.
  19. DDweatherman
    Notoriously the overzealous RAP haha. One of the worst pieces of guidance of course. What do the 9z srefs show?
  20. DDweatherman
    What I’m trying to figure out is how intense bands will be at the outer edges, and where subsidence might also play with the influence of a low that intense bombing off the coast. having lobes of intense s/w energy in the flow should help make the precip field fairly expansive regardless.
  21. DDweatherman
    Yeah I’m glad 6z came back west as well. I saw an h5 of 6z UK, looked extremely amped but never saw a surface map.
  22. DDweatherman
    Bar IMBY is 3”, and IVT might have a lot to say about that. I do think the gfs is likely most accurate with early stage qpf that might get 1-2” down early on then root for the IVT. In that zone, someone is going to get dumped.
  23. DDweatherman
    In general, this set up is so fragile that microscopic differences upstream involving the phasing and tilting of the trough could have substantial surface differences, even in the final 24 hours.
  24. DDweatherman
    I think for our areas, it looks like the IVT is key but I do expect a wider swath on the western edge with all of the energy moving through. It is a classic pass.
  25. DDweatherman
    The euro did move back west from 0z, I didn’t look at frames but allsnow up in NYC said 50+ miles.
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