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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    I mean, sure…but a 980 low off ocmd is better than most miller B situations. This thing matures extremely quickly. Should be good enough to not give us a complete screw job here
  2. DDweatherman
    Agreed. I do think there’s going to be a big winner on the west side with the norlun. They’re notorious for big totals where they park, and not going to see much more of an intense storm associated with one than this one.
  3. DDweatherman
    Notoriously the overzealous RAP haha. One of the worst pieces of guidance of course. What do the 9z srefs show?
  4. DDweatherman
    What I’m trying to figure out is how intense bands will be at the outer edges, and where subsidence might also play with the influence of a low that intense bombing off the coast. having lobes of intense s/w energy in the flow should help make the precip field fairly expansive regardless.
  5. DDweatherman
    Yeah I’m glad 6z came back west as well. I saw an h5 of 6z UK, looked extremely amped but never saw a surface map.
  6. DDweatherman
    Bar IMBY is 3”, and IVT might have a lot to say about that. I do think the gfs is likely most accurate with early stage qpf that might get 1-2” down early on then root for the IVT. In that zone, someone is going to get dumped.
  7. DDweatherman
    In general, this set up is so fragile that microscopic differences upstream involving the phasing and tilting of the trough could have substantial surface differences, even in the final 24 hours.
  8. DDweatherman
    I think for our areas, it looks like the IVT is key but I do expect a wider swath on the western edge with all of the energy moving through. It is a classic pass.
  9. DDweatherman
    The euro did move back west from 0z, I didn’t look at frames but allsnow up in NYC said 50+ miles.
  10. DDweatherman
    Tom’s river NJ, or maybe Plymouth MA?
  11. DDweatherman
    I honestly don’t even like it that much at the surface given how good the damn h5 is. I guess we just need to see the sw dig south a bit more. OR that clipper piece could phase in…
  12. DDweatherman
    Oh my goodness that looks mint.
  13. DDweatherman
    There’s a shit ton of energy in the flow this run, hope it feeds into things.
  14. DDweatherman
    Yeah tell me about it, I know he follows this stuff extremely closely lol.
  15. DDweatherman
    They think ulcerative colitis, we knew he had an ulcer but middle of the night last night he spiked a big time fever.
  16. DDweatherman
    That is a nice look. Best we’ve seen yet from the hrrr. Way outside of range, but again a piece of guidance we want to in our camp like the rest.
  17. DDweatherman
    TSSN is in the hospital right now, lots of pain.
  18. DDweatherman
    I’m in. He can afford it but I’ll pitch in.
  19. DDweatherman
    The mean output is going to be ridiculous with that look…
  20. DDweatherman
    Man, keep this thing coming. That’s such a nice mean.
  21. DDweatherman
    If you’re not staying in the woodlands or near galleria, Houston is shit.
  22. DDweatherman
    I think you missed my post because it was at the end of a page, but you made the changes and improvements sound overstated this run. Then you did post an h57 trend that was noise differences
  23. DDweatherman
    Good thing it’s getting both closer and stronger. Cleaner phasing and more amping helps the norlun/inverted trough axis for sure.
  24. DDweatherman
    I agree sir, well said. The trend is towards bigger totals, and the h5 continues to improve. Phasing is getting cleaner. Somewhere is getting a historic number at this point.
  25. DDweatherman
    Coastal NJ and NYC up to LI and CT might be backing into a HECS here.
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