DDweatherman

There’s gonna be a lot of posts in here tonight if the GFS or Euro do what the NAM is doing right now for Sunday.

It’s way way west

The recon data coming in, i still remember the bad data “claim” 48 hours out from Boxing Day, then 0z was just as west, and watches came out by 3am lol

Correct, tomorrow favors us in the NW, Sunday favors your folks bay and east.

the country or the model? Because the GGEM is that...

Unlike some here, I'm not losing sleep over this stuff. If its going to snow however, I'm going to look in the direction of what 20 years of studying this hobby has taught me to look for.... favorable teleconnections, a good source airmass, and precipitation/moisture streams being present. Having strong ENS support at "range" is a part of that, and right now we have it... so yes, many would argue it's our most favorable window of the season with support. Until its not.

All versions of the GFasS aren’t great.

Next folks. The pattern later next week is our best chance of the year; and probably with a simpler recipe to win. Overrunning type of setups.

It’s really all because of the GL energy. Without that or of course with a phase in, we’d be in biz.

A good edge session over the long range ensembles never hurt anyone I suppose. Don’t give ravens that rope.

Can't hate it. There's definitely reason to think this isn't dead looking at the 0z suite thus far.

That analysis is definitely spot on, but I will cough and it seems like we have these conversation sheets time we’re looking for positive trends, or now cast bust. The models tend to do a good job accounting for a lot of these things, maybe not at this range but especially closer in to game time…

As per a typical thing we need to avoid, sloppy phasing is at the top of the list. Need 0z to be cleaner like 12z was. Wouldn’t mind the 18z euro bridging the gap with something in the right direction, though it’s 6&18 runs never seem to

There was more of that kicker feature, but honestly didn’t flatten it THAT much. Small minutia differences though have big implication for this. Feels like a move towards the wrong direction.

Made that drive too many damn times, including about 3 in 2025. I’d argue all the way to Savannah. You almost feel a sense of relief once you get off SC’s loud ass highway in need of a resurfacing.

I-70 across Kansas or even Ohio is what comes to mind.

Was typing this then you sent it. Thank you. Let’s compare the major models we’re going to lend any kind of credibility to rather than the h84 12k NAM.

Holy shit this needs to be tagged/pinned for all to remember. Pedro Serrano would sacrifice ji instead of a live chicken.

It might be all we have left to give (or receive) in a few weeks. Ji might beat me to it though

There's a big difference between seeing a 1-3" of digital snow on those runs at different dates than hoping for a big coastal/significant event. That's not just semantics.

Desperate times call for desperate measures, no? Ji just declared winter over...again? We've been can kicking for how many weeks now? It would be fair to say its hard to be optimistic as this point since we've been in the Nina pattern of warm/wet to cold/dry as many years past have given us. Cold has been around this year, not almost no presence of a S/S. Trusting the GFS as poorly as it's performed this year (and even in past years when it had some successes) is a difficult proposition when its the only model showing what we need. That is more of a fact than an assumption or a statement out of left field.

Damn right haha. Randy has a suggestion box around here somewhere.

@WesternFringe & @ravensrule, I'm watching you boys and those weenie reactions on my last post. Let's watch and see how this one evolves before we start calling anyone a weenie. Ravens has 3" geared up for us all.

Euro looks like a step in the wrong direction. Tilt looks worse. Energy over the north central is interfering, and not ideal wave spacing. Respectfully, we're all in for disappointment waiting for the lousy GFS to lead and score a coup with one of these. Desperate times.

As you mentioned re the reading out in Reno, that is an extremely pumped ridge. Just need orientation and depth around the Mississippi and there could be something real.