In general, this set up is so fragile that microscopic differences upstream involving the phasing and tilting of the trough could have substantial surface differences, even in the final 24 hours.
I think for our areas, it looks like the IVT is key but I do expect a wider swath on the western edge with all of the energy moving through. It is a classic pass.
I honestly don’t even like it that much at the surface given how good the damn h5 is. I guess we just need to see the sw dig south a bit more. OR that clipper piece could phase in…
I think you missed my post because it was at the end of a page, but you made the changes and improvements sound overstated this run. Then you did post an h57 trend that was noise differences
I agree sir, well said. The trend is towards bigger totals, and the h5 continues to improve. Phasing is getting cleaner. Somewhere is getting a historic number at this point.
I’m disappointed in you, you showed the “trend” and it was almost identical at h57 vs 12z at 63. I mean maybe an asshair better, surface was improved I’d say.