DDweatherman

Historically we’re looking to target -5 to -8 at the growth level, no? And when that coincides with good mid level lift and VV, you can really max the ratios.

I’m watching the gradient and seeing where the fronto will align with it. I don’t know that we’ll get a north trend but the northwest edge can definitely perform even without it. We’re gonna go from 1 to 6” somewhere in 40 miles or so.

The NAM also closes it off and actually keeps our vort closed further eastward. NAM is a chump model but 3k iteration looks good for a lot of us and isn’t terribly different upstairs.

The only way I’d expect it to do that is if the low actually took a south of east vector across the valley. It is a potent s/w and there’s no HP. It’s true that the sampling is light in the area of the lobe in Canada, but no real sign of north movement yet. This is a set up where it can jump 50 miles north last minute, but no indication of that at the moment.

Needless to say 30-50 miles will mean a ton at game time for some folks. I’d bet the 1” to 6” gradient will be 40 miles or so on the NW/north edge.

Don’t generalize. I’m looking for one no doubt. But I’d take it looking exactly like 6z if we’re being honest. That alone is enough to think the UK is on something.

Also, it looks to phase the energy in more than kick it on the GFS. The s/w position at h51 isn’t all that different and really nor are the heights to cause as much ground truth difference. But downstream from this is where the effects are magnified and the big divergence is.

Wish I was in front of the computer to break out the other models and compare that feature.

I’m going to have an ex wife of my own if this tracking is right.

Stop saying that. The CMC and Euro don’t look like the UK. Even the icon isn’t nearly as far south as the UK lol. The euro is maybe the closest global to the GFS as of 12z gfs/6z euro.

We definitely liked your posts a lot more when you lived in MoCo. Glad you’re enjoying the retired mountain life though. Get some rest for the MECS later in the week. I don’t favor the UK on this one, mainly because it’s a big discrepancy from the GFS and even the Euro and CMC.

What’s funny is if the euro came out before all the models each suite, we probably would barely mention models like the ICON and UK. People who say the Euro “follows” the uk only say it because it comes out after. I’d hardly say the 6z euro is in the Uk camp.

A Randy screenshot over a 2 minute span of that model is worth saving if this gives us a MECS. We can all laugh over beers.

That’s what to watch for. Though, without much in the way of HP and a strong system moving across the country, don’t discount the last 18-24 hr shift like 1/30/2010 did for the area.

For the most part, I’d agree. However, 1” QPF or more in areas in our lowest PWAT month is anomalously juiced. Not to mention, we really should maximize snow growth here, which is more the reason this could overperform totals wise. We’ve heard it from several of our met colleagues certain spots will be 10-12”+ if they are under bands for several hours.

It’s 25/11 in my neck of the woods here at peak heating for January, pretty chilly. However, not crazy dry.

It’s a little faster, and maybe the slightest bit of de-amping of the vort again that we saw the other day as it gets east. Euro was actually wetter at 6z but GFS is a bit drier.

Absolutely. It’s like @psuhoffman said, just stay at the .3” or above qpf line and roll the dice. It’s rare we are snowing in the low 20’s with a strong system driving in from the W/SW optimizing flow with good fronto nearby.

Definitely agree. something of note for areas near mby and the northern crew along the M/D. The precip max areas have held or even moved slightly north (6z euro/eps a bit north, 12z gfs about the same as 6z). The gradient may start to appear tighter as we get closer in, and look to the higher res models to help define that cutoff. In truth, a sharper cutoff is likely more indicative of where a deathband could set up overlapping the fronto&divergence. We’ve seen this movie several times. Those yellows on radar will also probably be putting out 15:1+ ratio growth and no mixing risk up this way.

Mobile, so hard to post. Seems like it would be snow to me. Isothermal at worst, and as said above a touch colder than last run. Run is very similar otherwise.

Good run for everyone, touch colder than 6z overall.

If we’re looking for clues in some regards to nowcasting, watch out in the Midwest states, particularly the battleground areas and fringes (Iowa, Indy suburbs, S IL, etc.)

I can recall further back (PD2, 2006) but just going with the main notables of recent memory.

Well the euro is north of those two models as of now…

If the storm is faster, don’t be surprised to also see it drier. We might be able to get a good idea from the finer resolution models how sharp the northern gradient will be. Euro is expanding it north as of 6z whereas icon tightened.