DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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I saw what amped said above about ridging upstream, but to be fair it was very flat relatively on the initial image. Not a huge trend there. id more attribute it to the more rounded tpv but a more positive/neutral tilt if anything. That and there being very little phase activity to YANK or TUG this N/W
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Yeah, scraff declined to be the creator. Who’s next in line???
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It’s crazy how miniscule downstream impacts can take somewhere from 0 to 12 in this. Models aren’t done moving
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That euro run sucked for a lot of the forum, but wasn’t far from something a lot different.
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Euro has big time totals on a sharp cutoff to much less. Something different about that run. I really expect a different solution on 18 or 0z runs, maybe vastly different than this mornings
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Me too, I don’t understand how the output ends up being that
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Why waste our time sharing what looks better when the outcome keeps ending up worse. Such bullshit how it ends up looking at the frames leading in
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Doesn’t sound awful to me
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Well, if @Scraff is here to start it now, he can. If not we’ll have to run euro through this thread
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Let’s start it now, who wants the honors? Try and turn this bitch around
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This is honestly what we’re likely gonna need to happen to salvage this thing
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Thanks for dropping in and you’re right, this storm hasn’t shown its full hand yet. Something will pop up we’re not looking at 1 for 1 on the current model progs. I love Mike Ross from suits too
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Okay now we’re exaggerating a little bit. There were a few “scare runs” south and nyc wasn’t in the goods until late in the game.
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Those types of runs during big dog tracking and then rejoicing during the first flakes when radar looks sick or when the big rates start are my 3 favorites
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Anyone remember the original PSUhoffman storm? So much fun when the changeover brought insane rates and thundersnow out the ass
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This is accurate. Westminster didn’t get 6” to my knowledge.
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Models so a great job at identifying threats at long leads, that’s their key area of improvement. Close in we still have our struggles with difficult set ups
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Believe it or not, I kinda think so too. Like PSU said, I could see a miller b type solution popping up this aftn/tonight. Really unusual h5 evolution
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But you’re in Richmond, so you might have been lying.
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It’s a 3 day weekend squid, we might as well keep looking and see if we can develop an alternative path to victory. I’ll be here with ya
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Whoever gets .5” QPF could definitely score 8-10 in this one. If you’re in .25” you might get better than 10-1 but subsidence plays a factor on the edges and worse snow growth as well.
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Yeah and our victory path to 6”+ may come via the SS wave itself.
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I think we just need to start looking at the confluence and maybe seeing if the s/s wave can climb a bit more with strong WAA precip. In that event, separation of the streams isn’t the focus
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I try to spend some split time in there for obs during the storms and a little bit during tracking. This is just a much busier forum and a more consolidated geography. Yes, the climo for me is not all that dissimilar to state college (normally at least) compared to say Arlington or Annapolis. But this is where my online weather love kicked off 15+ years ago.
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This is where we have a chance to still score a warning level event. Ratios will be good and whoever is in the juice will have little to no problem producing dendrites thanks to solid fgen from a good vort & moisture transport from a s/s gulf interaction.
