DDweatherman

Stop saying that. The CMC and Euro don’t look like the UK. Even the icon isn’t nearly as far south as the UK lol. The euro is maybe the closest global to the GFS as of 12z gfs/6z euro.

We definitely liked your posts a lot more when you lived in MoCo. Glad you’re enjoying the retired mountain life though. Get some rest for the MECS later in the week. I don’t favor the UK on this one, mainly because it’s a big discrepancy from the GFS and even the Euro and CMC.

What’s funny is if the euro came out before all the models each suite, we probably would barely mention models like the ICON and UK. People who say the Euro “follows” the uk only say it because it comes out after. I’d hardly say the 6z euro is in the Uk camp.

A Randy screenshot over a 2 minute span of that model is worth saving if this gives us a MECS. We can all laugh over beers.

That’s what to watch for. Though, without much in the way of HP and a strong system moving across the country, don’t discount the last 18-24 hr shift like 1/30/2010 did for the area.

For the most part, I’d agree. However, 1” QPF or more in areas in our lowest PWAT month is anomalously juiced. Not to mention, we really should maximize snow growth here, which is more the reason this could overperform totals wise. We’ve heard it from several of our met colleagues certain spots will be 10-12”+ if they are under bands for several hours.

It’s 25/11 in my neck of the woods here at peak heating for January, pretty chilly. However, not crazy dry.

It’s a little faster, and maybe the slightest bit of de-amping of the vort again that we saw the other day as it gets east. Euro was actually wetter at 6z but GFS is a bit drier.

Absolutely. It’s like @psuhoffman said, just stay at the .3” or above qpf line and roll the dice. It’s rare we are snowing in the low 20’s with a strong system driving in from the W/SW optimizing flow with good fronto nearby.

Definitely agree. something of note for areas near mby and the northern crew along the M/D. The precip max areas have held or even moved slightly north (6z euro/eps a bit north, 12z gfs about the same as 6z). The gradient may start to appear tighter as we get closer in, and look to the higher res models to help define that cutoff. In truth, a sharper cutoff is likely more indicative of where a deathband could set up overlapping the fronto&divergence. We’ve seen this movie several times. Those yellows on radar will also probably be putting out 15:1+ ratio growth and no mixing risk up this way.

Mobile, so hard to post. Seems like it would be snow to me. Isothermal at worst, and as said above a touch colder than last run. Run is very similar otherwise.

Good run for everyone, touch colder than 6z overall.

If we’re looking for clues in some regards to nowcasting, watch out in the Midwest states, particularly the battleground areas and fringes (Iowa, Indy suburbs, S IL, etc.)

I can recall further back (PD2, 2006) but just going with the main notables of recent memory.

Well the euro is north of those two models as of now…

If the storm is faster, don’t be surprised to also see it drier. We might be able to get a good idea from the finer resolution models how sharp the northern gradient will be. Euro is expanding it north as of 6z whereas icon tightened.

Also a little faster, noticed some of the overnight runs were quicker with the low and start time again after slowing down quite a bit.

Fortunate to have good memory I suppose which helps, but can recall all the 2009-2010 storms, the 2011 commutageddon event, 2014, 2016, and some other <10” events in between. The st pattys snow was a nice one in our surge of overperforming winters 2014&2015.

Couple of options, 1 being he doesn’t care about the Nam much. 2: dc is a snow town again, so he doesn’t need to worry about models.

Definitely got wetter and brought the big time qpf more north. Tightening up the gradient which we’ve seen in a number of big ones. It and gfs aren’t far off now. Today whatever moves they make will probably be in the same direction. Our north crew would take 50 miles and the dc contingent would get smashed still.

Another thing i noticed is the confluence the NE is definitely a bit lessened on 18z euro h75 vs 12z. low also a bit stronger. I’d sort of expect a bit more north based on those 2 changes.

I hate to say; Randy’s pbp on the SV maps threw me off. This came north a bit on 18z euro I think. Heavier qpf definitely came north a bit.

More people are going to start rooting for it to be wrong if it moves any more that way.

As many of you know, this ends up being an IMBY sport near game time. It’s hard for everyone to win, especially to win at a similar level. that being said, this has the chance to be a high % pleaser to some extent for many in the sub forum.

Meanwhile in Indiana the same place has between 5 and 22 inches across those runs…