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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    DC would do better if you had slightly worse thermals honestly. You aren't getting the really hefty slug of QPF driven into the area near the warmer sector. Rates are a big part of the fun of course.
  2. DDweatherman
    Crazy to say seeing how far south it is, but the UK nudged a bit north if anything.
  3. DDweatherman
    Summary of the 12z suite ICON - slightly south of 6z, 6"+ S PA to NoVA GFS - carbon copy of 6z but wetter for jackpot zone, DC to M/D line GGEM - Slightly south of 0z, 6"+ S PA to PWC. RGEM - Slightly north of 6z, 6" line at the M/D and south
  4. DDweatherman
    Nice run and easy way to score, but you wonder if that makes sense given the other models amping the vort pretty hard.
  5. DDweatherman
    Hourly frames definitely seemed south of 0z, maybe by a fair bit? I'd bet it shows 4-5" up for PSU land and MBY without seeing the good maps.
  6. DDweatherman
    This looks south a fair bit of the last iteration if I'm being honest. I'm sure DC folk will like it. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
  7. DDweatherman
    That GFS run was a beauty, great h5 pass for ULL backside snows and a juicy WAA slug for most. Pretty decent thermals DC and north to.
  8. DDweatherman
    Foot for DC, Baltimore, PSU, Mappy, we all take that.
  9. DDweatherman
    The GFS does not look like the Euro, let's not mislead anyone. There's a reason PSU posted the image above.
  10. DDweatherman
    It does look very reasonable on the runs for this storm with regards to QPF and high level details.
  11. DDweatherman
    Good passage coming through there Yoda, I agree. Probably tack on 2-4 in a lot of spots.
  12. DDweatherman
    It's a pretty stacked vort through the levels. That's almost an ideal location too. Other models have shown something similar, euro is quicker with moving it through but does have a potent vort as well, just not quite as slow or amped and a bit south.
  13. DDweatherman
    With the potency of this one and the moisture advection, it's becoming pretty clear if someone can get in the core WAA slug and then get additional snow from the backside, there's going to be double digit totals and some 12" amounts to be found.
  14. DDweatherman
    Thats the EPS mitch, NAM didn't do much southing, more so tightened up the QPF distro gradient. Would be some nice high ratio snow post h84 for us as well.
  15. DDweatherman
    Plenty of good fronto around as the WAA slug moves in for us, there would be some really solid rates here.
  16. DDweatherman
    Going to be almost no virga today, already snowing lightly here under light returns.
  17. DDweatherman
    Taking some of the NAM "biases" into play and looking at thermals, that seems to be a really solid run for most DC and north. Plenty cold at the surface and heavy QPF. Vort is closed off at h5,h7,h85 on the way in and a great pass for the secondary slug to come in post 84 for extras.
  18. DDweatherman
    Through 15z Monday, heaviest QPF DC up to HGR and west, it's a very thumpy slug.
  19. DDweatherman
    It's a very potent shortwave and a decently intense surface low reflection moving in the right region to maximize SW flow into the cold sector of the storm. Not surprised to see what the precip frames look like. Pretty good run is cooking methinks.
  20. DDweatherman
    That's a really impressive vort coming across the country on the 12z NAM. You're going to want to be in the meat of this thing when it hits. Definitely a bit less press from the NE influence thus far through 57h.
  21. DDweatherman
    It was a big run, 6z Nam that is. Had put a lot of snow down by the end of the run with a fair bit more to come.
  22. DDweatherman
    Really, if you look west of the apps and see the swath of high totals along I-70, that’s where you’d expect (at worst) to see them on our side. This only really hurts the north crew if the precip then moved south of east which isn’t very typical. I usually am on the late north trend crew but definitely noticed the somewhat newly sampled lobe of energy up north of New England that seems to be playing in this one. Good or bad day ahead lol
  23. DDweatherman
    At least GFS made sense with regards to the stronger s/w and slower movement that the other models in the suite caught onto. The UK says f all that and is faster and weaker with the vort. Sheesh.
  24. DDweatherman
    Trough doesn't do much magic when its held back like that. If we would have gotten a better orientation with that QPF shield and where the SLP popped we would have had something really nice there. Euro AI kinda did that.
  25. DDweatherman
    I know what you meant though, it is held back at h5 a bit further W, doesn't allow the trough to tilt as well. However, precip swath is better and oriented more favorably for us.
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