DDweatherman

Tornado warning for a tor OTG near Cape Coral headed towards Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda & the airport.

47 IKE for Ian, so what Milton is at now.

Yeah I’m seeing this ”At landfall in southern Louisiana and Mississippi, Katrina had weakened to SS3 status (52 m s–1), but the marine- equivalent wind field in the storm core expanded (Fig. 1c) resulting in a respective IKETS of 122 TJ.” From an AOML article.

47 with likely 60-75 at LF, that’s going to cause some serious issues on the surge front (no surprise). 42 is around what Rita had if I’m not mistaken.

It may be. I’m probably wrong, but I swore with Ivan there was a MDT risk associated with that one.

It’s possible, more likely because the shear is coinciding with the Ewrc. The storm aligning with the shear vector should reduce overall impact, especially at this juncture since the storm hasn’t reached the stronger shear in the C/N gulf.

The twitter link above also shows the measured 184mph surface wind reading from the drop.

In my opinion the winds are higher than nhc has them at, considering the sonde’s and recon data posted above. Those support 180-185mph on the max sustained winds.

Sadly that isn’t going to do much to help Sarasota. If the IKE is 60-70 here, this will bring a record breaking surge to whoever is SE of the center.

damn, raw ADT’s up to 7.7 and 896mb. Sat imagery is top notch at the moment.

It's hard to definitively say there will be any "hard" hook, and even if so, I think we're about 12 hours from really knowing the LF point within 25 miles. I do think I'm weighing my forecast on the COC being pulled north of progs by the asymmetry of the storm nearing landfall.

Agreed on this, and the fact that if this does hit right on the edge of the southside TB or Sarasota, out in front the flow will still throw a substantial amount of water up into TB itself.

The right hook has happened a few times. I am concerned if this bombs big time in the morning through afternoon, it may get a bit more poleward again and go back over Pinellas. My personal cone was Clearwater to Sarasota.

Early on September 10, the eyewall became less defined, the convection near the eye became eroded, and northeasterly outflow became slightly restricted.[10] As a result, Isabel weakened slightly to a Category 3 hurricane. The hurricane turned more to the west due to the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High.[1] Later on September 10, Isabel restrengthened to a Category 4 hurricane after convection deepened near the increasingly organizing eyewall.[11] The hurricane continued to intensify, and Isabel reached its peak intensity of 165 mph (266 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 915 mbar (hPa; 27.02 inHg) on September 11, a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale.[1] Due to an eyewall replacement cycle, Isabel weakened slightly, though it retained Category 5 status for 24 hours.[12] As Isabel underwent another eyewall replacement cycle, outflow degraded in appearance and convection around the eye weakened,[13] and early on September 13, Isabel weakened to a strong Category 4 hurricane. A weakness in the ridge to its north allowed the hurricane to turn to the west-northwest.[1] After completing the replacement cycle, the hurricane's large 40 miles (64 km) wide eye became better defined,[14] and late on September 13, Isabel re-attained Category 5 status.[1] During this time, Isabel attained annular characteristics, becoming highly symmetrical in shape and sporting a wide eye.[1] Hurricane Isabel also displayed a "pinwheel" eye, a rare feature that is found in some annular tropical cyclones.[15] A NOAA Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance Aircraft flying into the hurricane launched a dropsonde which measured an instantaneous wind speed of 233 mph (375 km/h), the strongest instantaneous wind speed recorded in an Atlantic hurricane.[16] Cloud tops warmed again shortly thereafter,[17] and Isabel weakened to a strong Category 4 hurricane early on September 14. Later that day, it re-organized, and for the third time, Isabel attained Category 5 status while located 400 miles (640 km) north of San Juan, Puerto Rico.[1]

Maybe Isabel? Maria?

Will be interesting to see if the HAFS runs tonight re bomb this post EWRC like the earlier today runs showed, including the 884mb frame. easy to discount that number for actual intensity, but they weren’t far off on the insane strength in this cycle.

We can’t speculate too much, but given satellite we didn’t miss peak by much. Maybe low-mid 890’s and some possibility of 190-195mph winds given that pressure and how compact the core is.

Let’s not get this twisted. The water depending on how far north the center gets and angle of approach is still pushing a lot of water NE into the bay. The difference is once the center crosses shore, if it’s south of the bay, it’ll be a blowout tide. Not before a pretty substantial surge, but one that wouldn’t continue to pile the water

It would probably be 897-898/185mph

There’s reason to believe it was even lower at peak given the recon left before the “best” satellite images. we’re blessed here to have them in at the peak times.

Absolutely. Insane imagery

The last 12-24 hours before LF intensity is going to have some realistically large impact wind wise, but surge wise shouldn’t change much if a cat 4 exists 100 miles off the coast.

Katrina weakened a lot and still brought a catastrophic surge in, but it was cat 3 at LF. How much surge energy/IKE would carry into LF if this goes from a 5 to a 1. If the HAFS is right and its sub 900 24 hours from LF, I have to imagine it doesn’t really matter what LF intensity is.

The other models which had this before, including the GFS, abated some of that dry air quite a bit on todays 12z.

Way stronger than other guidance at peak, while the other models have it 940-950mb at LF (cat 3-ish we’d assume).