DDweatherman

18 west to east moving canes across the gulf originating in the bay of Campeche I believe since 1885, and the only true track like the nhc projection was pre 1900.

I don’t really think it’s quite that north but the turn NNE would maximize surge in Tampa Bay. A look like that would put 10-15ft of surge into the bay.

Not surprised, especially given the ramp up in intensity overnight into this morning. A lot of the hurricane models have this presumably at cat 5 pressure in the central gulf before an ERC.

Yep, I saw this today. Where are you in this? South Tampa near Davis? TI, Madeira and SPB, Ana Maria, etc. are even worse.

It's clear that its a different setup. Look at whats up there, not a ton of influence one way or another from the mid latitudes.

I don't disagree given the vector/heading, but given the bigger picture and macro environment, I wouldn't expect it to head towards big bend.

Good points here. Also, with 18z models being a bit slower, makes you wonder the implication that has on the storm going a bit more N of prior runs. There's probably a limit to how far NW this can go.

If anything, I expected this to trend to the south of tampa, like many of the big W FL storms have (Irma, Ian). I wouldn't expect a curve or jump NW, but some of the 'cane models show that in this evenings suite.

Still a really formidable storm near the coast and in the past few years they haven’t weakened nearly as much as the early 2000’s storms approaching the coast. Plus if we have a cat 5 in the gulf that undergoes an ERC and hits as a larger 3, the surge will certainly be extreme if Milton tracks through or over TB.

I’m mobile, but assuming the storm grows a fair bit in the open GOM following the ERC as it heads ENE towards the coast?

The focus at this point is track, considering strength is likely to be a cat 3 or 4 approaching the west coast of FL.

This could be Tampa’s most damaging hurricane depending on track.

Both are pretty bad (meaning more surge) tracks for the Tampa Bay metro. This may pile up water out ahead of the storm more efficiently I’d think depending on where it actually comes ashore.

Yes, it really is.

My initial thought is probably Sarasota to Venice at c3.

The central and northern gulf, not as much given the accelerated pace once it got north of keys latitude. It was large, so maybe that helps a bit. Any mets care to chime in?

It’s hard to miss that much on a system @ 4-4.5 day leads that has a well defined COC which this has developed fairly quickly.

I’m mobile, can you post an image? Want to share with family; down in Sarasota atm.

Elaborate in what you’re saying here. If a 940 is 100 miles offshore and weakens but hits Clearwater, tampas taking 8-10 ft of surge.

I had the chance to tour some of the damage on Treasure Island and St. Pete beach…it’s much worse than I was expecting or most people would considering where Helene hit. So many houses lost everything, along with bars, restaurants, businesses, etc. Two main points from that for this one, 1. the debris is everywhere, piled feet upon feet high. Consider that stuff a floating weapon if this pushed similar surge in those towns. It would be a disaster. 2. Some people don’t understand what the outcome of a GFS like run would be for this area…it would be one of our most damaging hurricanes. Tampa has evaded direct surge impacts and a hit for most of recorded history. Others know if one came in over the bay or just north it would be the “one”. Not trying to be a hypester, but statistically and studies wise, weather folks have said this area in some ways can be worse than NOLA.

Scary that the GFS did very well with Helene and is already seeming to like a certain track/intensity near the Tampa/st Pete/Sarasota metro.

That’s route 40, not I-40.

Called earlier today that Valdosta would get in the NE eyewall and that looks to be tracking at the moment. Could certainly see gusts over 100 there and 80+ up into E GA.

I expect nhc to announce landfall in the next 15 minutes. Edge of eyewall coming ashore now.

Judging by how intense this is coming in, not sure how much of Perry will be left on the other side of this one.. eastern parts of Tallahassee are also going to see some 100-120+ gusts it appears if they’re clipped by that N/NW eyewall.