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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    The hires NAM has temps falling from 52 at 5 am to 37 at 7 am. I'm suspicious that the cold will hang back, which will prevent all but a token flake or two. Anything that does fall will be unlikely to stick due to our usual March factors that shall not be named. Still, a little white rain will be a welcome sight before spring comes out in full force
  2. olafminesaw
    Some indications of a snowflake or two Saturday morning/midday for the western/northern Piedmont. The wind chill would make Saturday afternoon frigid by January standards.
  3. olafminesaw
    Looking forward to next winter ready? CPC to probs to dash your hopes and dreams (ok, I realize this is meaningless)
  4. olafminesaw
    I found this video go be super helpful in understanding the situation. Covers everything but the ideological side of things
  5. olafminesaw
    I've seen a ton of different takes on what the true motive behind the invasion of Ukraine is. My current impression is it has mostly to do with distrust and resentment of the West as well as a desire to be taken seriously as a nation (which also looks back at the USSR's former "glory" and even beyond). What's your take on what motivates Putin's actions?
  6. olafminesaw
    Rather impressive soundings last night and this morning
  7. olafminesaw
    Wedge in all her Glory
  8. olafminesaw
    Yikes! They also reported 26 and zr two hours later and an hour after that 33 and heavy rain.The corresponding sounding at 0z.
  9. olafminesaw
    I think we can officially declare winter over after Sunday. No signs of cold before the 10th, at which point we enter really rare territory for snow
  10. olafminesaw
    Too progressive and leaves the energy behind. Too much ridging out West. Need more amplitude with the wave and for everything to slow down enough to get separation from the wave before it
  11. olafminesaw
    Right, it's tough to get good sampling of the sun being 27 million degrees and all
  12. olafminesaw
    Still some hope for flakes, but the warm/whiff scenario is looking way more likely with the overnight runs.
  13. olafminesaw
    Yeah I'd favor DC here. Odds of being jackpot zone Whiff/too warm 25% NC/Southern VA 20% DC 40% NYC 15%
  14. olafminesaw
    North of the OP, but not terrible either
  15. olafminesaw
    I wouldn't call it cold chasing moisture necessarily (and all the issues that come along with that). It's just that the storm is too far north. A really good run though, with the way things had been trending.
  16. olafminesaw
    GEFS looks decent, but I think this is a 10-20% type proposition
  17. olafminesaw
    It's the real deal guys...
  18. olafminesaw
    Gusts of over 50 mph tonight on the HRRR. In the mid 40s in my point and click
  19. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile in the Pacific, the bomb cyclone bringing our pattern change is forecasted by the GFS to drop 63 mb, from 994 to 931 in just 30 hours. Wild stuff
  20. olafminesaw
    Keep in mind that's a seven day mean, so lots of possibilities for deeper cold within that window. Of course, getting the cold and moisture to link up is the key (not counting on it) but the orientation of the cold is pretty ideal. Boone has lots of reason for optimism, and Climo makes any wintery precip a long shot for the Piedmont
  21. olafminesaw
  22. olafminesaw
    Nice radiation cooling this morning and a very heavy frost. Down to 21 at the airport, which is nearly a50 degree drop from 36 hours earlier
  23. olafminesaw
    RGEM is quite wet but questionable thermals. Which is odd because I thought it had a cold bias
  24. olafminesaw
    My only hesitation is all those areas without decent elevation are going to have temp (34-36 degrees outside of the heaviest rates) sun angle, soil temp issues (in descending order of importance here). Banding will need to develop to get the job done. The shift to mid-day instead of early morning hurts us here. In fact the 12z RGEM pulls decent banding through Raleigh in the evening, where timing had actually improved.
  25. olafminesaw
    Right now, a blend of the RGEM, GFS, and Euro, which favors the mountains, foothills and up into central VA I think between Martinsville and Lynchburg will do quite well
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