Typhoon Tip

No... if your responding to my comments ...my gripe is focused on the general erosion of usefulness of the "information" ... and Internet. Like i said, the correspondence between Princeton and this other guy may be entirely useful/necessary, but ... why are we here, yet again. I also noted, that the "standards" of review and release is also eroded, as being indirectly part of that. It almost seems the internet needs to be partitioned ... gates where one enters vetted, vs the rest of it as caveat emptor. It's kinda sorta like that? but ...by and large, it is not.. and it almost is creating a secondary cultural movement toward breakdown in trust in anything ( I might add... different rant heh) . Dark and deceptive...

It's annoying... just how eroded the trustworthiness of the Internet has become. You know, it more than merely seems, the early Internet days were awesome... So much so that people didn't dare douching it down with their agenda - that level of brazen corruption was probably as much requiring time to evolve, as it might have been predictable to occur, too. And here we are. You could trust a information you read circa 1998 on the web, much more so than now...It's like the corrupters have put us back to dark pre-Internet days. By submerging the Internet in falsity ...it defeats the purpose almost entirely. And it's in here, too... You come in here, ...someone puts up an excerpt and/or linkage to some interesting paper, and UP! immediately... we got to wade through counter-point rangles that are less like science and more like "I hate GW and therefore need to dig up anything," in order to abase. Meanwhile, only obfuscating fact and truth that much more...because the real sufferer is that the counter-point! It may in fact be entirely valid. ..either way. And that, right there, is the particularly egregious annoyance: The general populate/consumer/user doesn't have the time. Science is supposed to purpose truth; the Internet invents a new science, to prove there is actually science . Vet the vetters? give us a f'n break with the Internet. Waste of goddamn time! It may be that the back-and-forth between the Princeton scientists and this mathematician is entirely useful, but the aforementioned gripe ... it's probably indirectly related to sloppy publication practices/immorality of the same ilk. Meanwhile, real truth gets bought and sold, both figuratively and literally, behind the scenes... It's like the whole specter of informatica becomes a plied distraction while those transactions conveying cogency are being carried out between sources, ...and we aren't really part of this latter consortium. Oh, we'll get the truth...when our crops fail... the ocean overtakes Washington D.C., Boston, Miami... the Philippines ... Or not... we'll never know, we'll we!?

Any debate of modern industrial-based societies of the world that ultimately roots to Environmental concerns has a fascinating stigma associated with it: The heat of the vitriol is ultimately driven by the intangible nature of the threat, not really the threat its self. To make sense of that paradox think about these statements: Tell someone a train is coming, they bide time; that same someone actually sees the train? Hell yeah! They'll step off the track with no argument and with the greatest expediency imaginable. That is the problem with GW, it has no visible train. The "specter" of Global Warming and all the intrinsic catastrophic train cars of consequence... they are only now just beginning to measure. Prior? There really were no, or very few ... certainly not enough actual corporeal forms to shut up those that need to have their mouths closed. All you (the proverbial you..) offer them instead of their present way of life (or chance to find one..) is to abstain from their ability to have that life. Think about that... not going to end well for those attempting to warn of anything that blocks that goal, not when they can't see the train. And so... the problem with this is there needs to be a new PR campaign that is revolutionary - if Nature isn't kind and gentle enough to do so in smaller doses... Which (ironically) it is, if we choose to look and heed to the signals... but that's also consistent throughout humanity's history. From Pompeii ignored rumbling, to the ancients warning the future through fictional works like Noah ... the disaster has to happen before people see the virtue of the warning.

The Finite­ Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core model.... lovingly referred to as the "FV3-GFS" ... is simply not interested in a warm up through D15 in the 00z run ...for how little that's worth. In fact, it blue bombs us D9 and threatens a dynamical arctic powder poof three days later, while the EPS and GFS are stringing endless 1" transparent QPFers west of NE. 06z was less winter optimistic but we still definitively colder overall. Interesting... granted, this is experimental

... funny. It's like we gotta have gerrymandered sub-forum regions based upon ethos...

I'm secretly coveting a hope that it's stays bad ...right through until next May... It would assist in helping to drive points home to a collection of minds that are apparently homeless. But that aside, I was just saying to Will in the other thread that there's some chance the pattern look of mid Dec is false -

Got to be honest... the American side of that is not looking good for winter enthusiasts... In fact, .... bad may be apropos. Not sure, though, if this isn't just some artifact of a 'lost signal' more so than a legitimate one? What I mean is, in the absence of coherent physical presence/pattern drive in these guidance tools, they sort of flat line and tend to zonal ... which tends to precede ridging as a beta function result. .... Hyperbole ... but, before December deliberately attacks Holiday dough eyed innocence with metaphysical forces because said forces derive pleasure from watching people's misery ... the EPO (American) is still sagging a bit negative. That's a bit quixotic in my mind (adds variability that could offset). As an index, particularly in nominal warm ENSO, anything of Pacific origin might intuitively bias +PNA ... These indexes sometimes have to 'emerge' in time in that regard, not showing candycane looks like we'd rather be drugged with.. In the meantime ...the D9 /10 operational Euro has a deep syrup dump over the western/central Canadian shield with ... I think I saw -32 C at 850? yikes... It's quasi agreeing with the GEFs -EPO in having a ridge axis poking up NW of the Alaskan sector, and that does precede said loading. So at least before D13 ...that looks doesn't really extrapolate and might just be a stability clue when including the underlying hemispheric canvas of parameters - dicey... So...taken fwiw, there may be conflicting signals there.

Why not ? fire it up ... There may be some sort of left-over hesitation due to a kind of 'unspoken' sensitivity where NNE is a different region, but you just gotta think of the whole region as one identity. So you start a thread - title it something like, "northern regions' snow storm" ...and probably, the southerns won't post a whole helluva lot - that's just the way it goes. This isn't an analytic hobby - oh there's some of that from time to time but by and large, this pass-time is a support group. Ha. true though ...

How does "Blue Hill" mean "the Boston area"?

The NAM was interesting at 850 mb in its handling of the thermal layout. Initially there is warm bulge arcing up toward New York State, cutting SE over SNE... As the primary low slams into a hemispheric instructed stall over the southern lakes, the ensuing charts indicate pallid attempt at a secondary. I don't necessarily argue the weakness or strength of the secondary, however, I am noticing that right around hour(s) 36+ the warm bulge abruptly erodes back, hmm... with holes also "punched" through it. That behavior in the kindergarten water color activity hour is indicative what you know (...just pointing it out..), and in the past ...turned out sneaky portentous in hindsight. 1 ... the fragile nature of the warm bulge. It's not deep. And above it, the growth region of the sounding across N PA and NYS to SNE/CNE is likely cold enough - height falls associated with secondary might be in question (underdone) by just that crucial amount. For operational Mets ... that's headache hour. 2 ... hygroscopic cooling in the 850 mb layer (saturation to wet bulb) is ending up right around 0C. Therein is a problem with that entire evolution from ..really the backside of today thru 70 hours. This system today isn't helping like a system escaping traditionally would. It's got very little backside CAA going on... such that the critical sub 700 mb thickness intervals are tepid. It makes the secondary interesting (for me), in that we've seen dynamics in the past do wonders N of NYC latitudes from roughly mid Novie's onward. Climate arguments aside (have to look at each situation uniquely), that 850 mb thermal modulation described above, ..that tells me that radar at the time will be "fuzzy" regardless of what it is doing in the obs. Here's the thing ... in years past I could always count on marginal columns in autumn and spring tend cooler when observing that erode back 850 mb thermal dynamic. That's how you get 'blue bombs,' particularly when impetus to warm above the boundary layer is terminating. The lift at mid levels then QPF into column left naked to the N. At this time range, models (some more so than others...like he GGEM) always tended to cold rain, correcting toward isothermal blue like ... < 30 hours from the event. I don't know about present era modeling though, wrt to that specific study - if they are improved in accuracy for marginal looks that "could" modulate isothermal. The other aspect is that there is a sneaky Maritime rise in surface high pressure, as the isobars subtly bulge backward toward the WSW, N of Maine. That retrograde look is really the -NAO exertion overall. It may not supply 'cold' per se, but... it sort of backs us into wondering if the primary latitude is handled perfectly ... I've also seen primary's as recently as within the last five years of modeling ...correct S when there is -NAO-like train-wreck mechanics in eastern Canada. Euro is notorious for that ... or used to be, probably a vestige of it's "too far SW" olden day bias it used to have. So, ... meh... if this thing ends up correcting (or not) and/or surprises blue ...wouldn't be shocked.

I'll tell ya ... that polar wave passing from the eastern Lakes through NE ..72-96 hours is what really kicks the NAO pattern into motion. It really nukes and gets exotically deep at all levels and that flow around the top side S of Greenland starts piling up the heights in response. That said, it's probably more a feed-back cuz the hemisphere is trying to be blocking - this system encourages that along.

Anecdotal/symbolic content follows, but ... First it gets warm, then it gets cold - boom! That's the adage way things go. Holistically, a warm up near or shy of 'Giggedy, then turning colder sets stage, because the colder incursion thereafter tends to" overcompensates" ... and the ensuing correction nest(s) the event(s). If you think about it ... that intuitive model is really just backing into the H. Archembault statistical method and conclusions therein, whereby it is shown that index modulation/inflections are when/where larger scaled precipitation anomalies take place. It's really one in the same conception-wise. Anyway, ...I still see a very interesting winter signal for the last week of November onwards, as I'm sure others probably do as well.. Hard to say if a preceding warm up... magnitude and transience notwithstanding, would related to that in sort of a 'sloshing' hemisphere, but, I like the look of the PNA spiking months end with an EPO that is also going the other direction. Meanwhile, the AO/NAO are both tanked! Having said all that...it's tough really buy-in when the operational model runs are outside the wheel-house of even seeing it. They may (more likely not...) show events and dailies that fit that complexion until such time as something is legit and latched onto - ... there's also 'tweener' systems that can happen, which today's ...really was of that ilk.

Yup! Funny... several days ago, at the time the model blend did look somewhat similar to the 500 mb evolution back in Dec 2005 - went out of my way to comment. But, I think a key difference between then and what verified over the last 18 hours of this thing ...is storm consolidation? Back then, it got tight and tightened... The vmax cut right smack over top the densest thickness packing of the sounding, about quintessentially 1 deg lat/lon SE of ISP, while not losing mechanical momentum while doing so. Contrasting, this one deviated off that more idealized model by riding somewhat more N of the gradient ... A ... and B, weakening while doing so. There's other parametric factors... The lead polar high was retreating more E and that prooobabbly didn't help? No...but, I feel the magnitude/anomaly of cold in place would have been sufficiently serving if the above attributes didn't help unravel this thing...which is what ultimately appears to have quasi-doomed the end game.

Same issue up here in Ayer, Bob - if it's any consolation. 7" at 4 am is now 3.5" of glop.

It's also not helping that the wave mechanics are weakening as this is moving by this morning, too... Radar is breaking apart ...almost smacks of just falling apart before this even has a chance to move away but it'll likely stray burst a slow death.

Overall.. giving myself a C ... C- on this gig. I was right about the cold QPF being underestimated, but, I didn't do well with the impact behavior in these latter innings. We penetrated liquid farther N than I thought we would - looks like it terminated that punch ~ ASH's latitude... FIT to just S of EEN... Brian, I suspect was safe up thatta way. Quick review...It looks as though the 700 mb center arrive more over CT-RI as opposed to along Long Island, which was more at what I had in mind two days ago. In fact, at the time, the GFS sliced the 500 mb vort max S of LI too - that appears to have corrected in verification N as well... I do believe that a vort translation 1.5 deg lat/lon SE of ISP .. probably shifts totality of transition this and thats ... SE concomitantly and we'da been safe in these interior eastern zones. As it were...nah so much. I awoke at 4:30ish for my nerd gawk ... and it was rattling at the sills with gossamer mist at the street lamps. The plow is what really woke me ...so I took the opportunity to sate my inner child. Anyway, the new fallen snow pack was in tact, and the flat top rail of the back deck had est 7" summit over top. Got up 8 am? 3.5 matte under mist at 35 F ..lovely.

"Backlash" is a tough one. Almost smacks as overrated? Statistically, there is a difference between snow "event" and snow "storm" ... A storm can be rain to start and then transition to cold paws as the storm moves underneath, then ending as a burst of aggregates with the deformation backside 'hook' ...which is technically backlash. That may be argued as a backlash event or storm I suppose. But fair and objectively ...that's more an event (would also be rarer) Most traditional/classic winter storm translations occur the greater snow mass in the front IB region...that than transitions into TROWAL antics...which then may terminate into a wrap around deformation axis(yes) that can in fact rip at trophy rates. However ... given that those western arcs are geometrically normal to the storm's translation vector ... means that other than cut-off rare bombs ...those wrapped axis' are overwith inside of a couple hours. I've actually seen steady moderate to heavy snow associated with early to midriff events.. go to light sky and light snow ... then low visibility for 45 minutes before the sun bursts out when that arc comes through. That 45 minutes was the hook - In any case... snowing in the backlash and a snow storms total mass actually in snow ... in most cases makes the backlash lesser important.

Amazing how quickly this transformed ... instant deep winter outside 4.5" mod snw.

We may end up in a local jackpot up here along rt 2

It's about a Jan 10 climo shot

Why are there so many "over performer" statements.

Ah nah. Return rate for Novie events > nominal is in the neighborhood 15 yrs but ... we just had one n of the pike in 2014 That said it's rare to get pan wide 6" 2-4" in coastal towns with oceanic ssts lingering 50 F is definitely NOT like any Novie used to do Probably top 5 percentile in those locales

25/24 hvy snw. 1/4. Mi Vis. Uniform tiny aggregates. 1.25"

funny you mention that... i was just looking at the radar and thinking how painfully slowly it was advancing. heh

seems like we repeat this a lot. Event after event after event... Clear indicators in the models... overthink kicks in, suddenly ..we know more than our own experience and we're down to Advisories clear to almost Glenn Falls NY with DPs of 10 F and 40 of units of UVM riding over top... Sometimes I wonder if we just invent reasons to doubt ... and sound intelligent while doing so, too. So the Euro comes in late second with a sleet bomb and ...well, whatever. I think it's a relative win still going with warning for general impact - Euro can hiccup too. But 5.5" of snow then .5" sleet then.1" of icing then drizzle at a balmy 33 F is a nightmare to a non acclimated public so ...it's better in the PR of the thing.