Typhoon Tip

Ha! I know you guys don't normally look at the FOUS ( it's an old habit of mine ...) but my god at the QPF at Logan comparing prior runs. since 12z yesterday's NAM ...every model cycle had been stubbornly putting out 2 intervals of QPF/liq equiv, and the numbers are always .5"-ish followed by .3"-ish ... totaling ~ .8". It just was not changing for that location. 12z just now? .27" + 1.04" + .22" hahaha my goodness

The last two run cycles of the operational GFS are carrying two of them, actually. 16th is being separated by the 18th by a general fast flow/higher volatility continent. These impulses are riding along where the ambient thickness gradient is getting rather steep down stream of the -EPO forcing.... That latter one for the 18.5th has kind of a sneaky NJ model look to it out of nowhere. Both these perturbations are below index coherency. I call those "sub-index" features... It just means events that take place because the synoptic restoring/forcing happens across domain spaces that are smaller so are 'hidden' in that sense. Teleconnectors are less useful by scale, and/or often lost entirely within the noise of ensemble distribution too. But if that trough sharpens a little more on the 18th one, that could easily become another fast movin' bigger player... That system between the 20th and 22nd is dubious but is also a new introduction along said gradient, too.

Probably this needs now-cast ... The 06z Euro doesn't really drop the mic on this for me at all. Seems as though some are acting like it should? Yes, it could certainly be right, but there's just as much plausibility for this to bump back NW on the next cycle(s) - all thse SE "giga" movements in the models don't appear to be coherently driven by large scale forcing. That tends to thinking that behavior is an artifact of model noise... Stakes are high-ish. Even a half back correction and 4-6" comes back to Rt 2 with 6-10" to the Pike ...etc.. Or should the ICON's overnight rendition prevail, that obviously implicates more. I consider the Euro as the southern goal post and the ICON the northern. You know, it would be wonderfully entertaining if the 06z ICON solution verified in lieu of the Euro ... It's sort of an underdog model. I like mixing things up a bit and rattling preconceptions. It's fun to bear witness. Lol I will say, that ICON's track and intensity have varied the least of all guidance between 18z yesterday, 0z last night and 06z this morning. It has moved around a little, but less than the other guidance. It's QPF distribution was mod/major, moderate, back to major respectively ...so some additional variability run-to-run with that ... But by and large its general cyclonic manifold has demoed the better continuity. The Euro moving S some 100 mi in < 3 days before go-time is atypical model performance ... If that verifies that would be just as interesting. And if so ... I'd suggest that attenuation phenomenon caught up with this... Perhaps at imperceptible scales, a weakening in the total scaffolding of the circulation within which this system transmits ...becomes less supportive, that could induce a southerly track correction in the finality. It's just that "imperceptible" ( or maybe "sneaky" is a better word) makes that less reliable. Anyway, we find ourselves in a situation where worse continuity is being rewarded with more confidence? That's also interesting -

We may also be dealing with a slight amount of that attenuation bullshit that always happens as we get right on top of these damn things. Still … Looking at the 18 Z model runs that probably should matter the most … diffs I see aren’t very germane

Rain south of the GW Bridge

There used to be an NHL hockey team called the Hartford Whalers. They are now the Carolina hurricanes… Maybe he should’ve said the “GFS hurricanes” heh

My theory is that the preference for shorter posts really began when these kinds of Internet social media became portably accessible … that’s just too hard to dink around with editing sentences and shit on one of these little interfaces especially when the algorithms that they employ they’re supposed to help you? Don’t they actually fight you

The funny thing is we still have 3 or 4 model cycles before this goes into now-cast ‘panic’ … that’s when the battle royalle between Librium and Xanax to determine what is the more effective management tool really gets going…

JD part of that’s my phone…

Right – I might be wrong, but I don’t see them as significant enough to worry or much “consternation”. I keep reading post like icon way south and I go look at it and it barely bounced. I mean it’s still a big blue inky dark mass of heavy snow for 4 to 6 hours between White Plains, New York and Bedford Massachusetts - doesn’t seem to change run to run to run to run to run. Bit of “over application of interpretation” It’s OK I get it though on the south. I mean whoever gets snow and doesn’t get snow might actually be a really tough and tight gradient to call down there because it could be 10 miles differentiating 9 inches from an inch of mix …everybody’s gonna flash freeze as soon as the wind backs that isn’t already frozen.

what “ghost poster” highlighted any blizzard on the 20th … I guess that must just be sarcasm but there’s been suggestion of ‘period of interest’ in the ens means. Ex, it took time for this 13th thing to emerge out of this positive PNA too. So long as we maintain that steep temperature gradient from north to south at Continental scale, the entire period is going to be volatile as baseline …so the background potential is going to be elevated. but I will enter that I don’t think we’re gonna have a protracted winter into March unless we see some index variations that are favorable for that pretty soon start to show up on the coherency horizon. … This is not 1956 climate and I know it’s hard for people to get their head around this, but warming and seasonal change is a spring loaded affair in this era of history. We have the benefit of a very strong and deep negative EPO but that ends around the 20th… And the PNA is modestly positive at that time but does tend to collapse negative afterwards. If we do not have a fresh insert of cold air, it will get warm pretty quickly ahead of schedule and probably faster than people think.

No, I think the people are focusing on details that are a little bit below expectation for what the guides are capable of doing - because they need to get the snow into their backyard very small movement seem very much bigger than they really are. If we step back and look at it from a bigger, synoptic overview? Theres a decent short duration impactor that’s higher confidence - the changes are not significant to warrant whether that’s going to be the case or not

Looking at the icon, and the GFS solutions over the past 36 hours I don’t really see their variations from run to run as being significant enough to warrant much consideration

Oh, I’m just confirming what other people are intimating. I don’t really have an opinion on that icon model fact I wasn’t really impressed with it last year. I heard it stated that it’s supposedly doing better this year, but I almost feel like people are making that narrative up to satisfy needing it to verify Whenever it has a deep blue black snow shield

Without even looking at snow products it’s probably 16

Yeah Icon implicated a dangerous storm for several hrs Tue afternoon over everywhere east of ORH

Little bit of paranoid nerviness going on ... It might have done some folks some good to have lived through the 1980s. They might be a little more iron hulled to these sort of minutia model hip checks. lol 'magine going 3 days of duck and cover ticker warning messages about cryo dystopia bombs only to wake up to 9 F with sun dimly visible on the morning of the "apocalypse"

There's hints there of concentric bands ...that's weaker frontogenic band paralleling that extends roughly MTW to N. Adams up there. Probably a solid band of moderate pivoting in position out there for a 3 or so hours. Greenfield may end up in a gravity well.

Not to be an ass but I really wasn't sure why folks were assessing that. I just read "yeah and not much wind" ...I was looking at a 982 mb low ESE of of LI going really?

yeah all these run cycles are doing are putting out wobble versions ... All solutions within a narrowing goal post range are really still valid, but as long as the run in hand doesn't go out side the posts it just 'giga' motions. I think it's interesting that the global models are in agreement and it is the mesos this time that are having trouble getting on board. The 6-14" Jan 7 event was the other way around.

I'm actually surprised HFD isn't inside the 12" line from what I saw of that run... But, the other school is that Tolland is also safely left out of the party/cool kids which makes a great deal of intuitive sense so yeah...

That la-la range of the Euro ends in an exotic mise en science

That N arc of this cyclone is maturing while the circulation is leaving the Bite water area which puts ~ E CT-SE NH deep into it IN TIME for a change... Not sure you can move a sub 980 mb low across the lower Islands without a wind burst into the eastern 1/3 of SNE. 2-M temps crash from 32 to 25 for places like Lowell down to Holden and Worcester while there's heavy fall rates that are highly correlated when crossing up the 850 -- 700mb flow directions creating all kind of positive shear inducing lift. At that time there's a coherent 300 mb entrance region fanning out at between 66 and 78 hours - no wonder a massive QPF loaded CCB head is passing through. This Euro run is just a text book for heavy snow from HFD-BED. I'm seeing very similar structures/arguments in the recent GFS runs too. Also, not sure there's enough time for wind momentum transfer but there is an astro high tide(s) Monday and Tuesday .. I think that 1pm one on Tuesday might be vulnerable.

I didn't think so but shit if the Euro isn't trying for a 16" in just 4 or 5 hours here. wow. It's got an absolute PWAT loaded CCB clearly channeling from ~ Marblehead to Framingham, with strong winds now too.