Typhoon Tip

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i get it that it’s just a random 18z run during col season but still … is the gfs modeling on earth with that?

mm I dunno. felt warm down here to me. was outside much of the day and it was 78 to 80 then driving between places. y'all up in alpine country are probably just getting what you deserve for living there. heh

expanded hc is fuckung things up kelvin waves are less identifiable and in fact are weaker in weaker hc circulation manifold … not propagating as efficiently. we appear trapped in an “unscheduled” standing wave problem as a result. we’ve persisted in neg uvm anomaly over our hemisphere for several weeks. without the canonical progression of kelvin wave to then reverse the uvm field this season is likely toast for those original predictions.

the previous several top years were rarely more than a few short decimals warmer than the previous record warm summers. this one bucked that by surpassing the previous by 2.5 whole degrees. sometimes the value of the differential is more important than the achievement

yeah i'd argue the gfs's pattern's likely okay in principle ... but ( what's new - ) it's equally likely to be some 20 or even 30% too amplified. this really all but needs to be a built into model evals as a presumptive approach - one that folks need to lens everything through, first, during the ensuing winter too. it might save us from wading through countless X repostings and/or analysis over phantoms. there are times when an advance lead amplitude are ...something like "more buy-able" but it's rarer. you know, you wonder what this modern evolution of the technology would look like in the 10 days prior to a 1993 march redux lol

models really dried this thing up today, huh. either that or they busted.

i'm thinking you will tomorrow. i'm not sure i buy it that you won't later on as we've observed some redic warmth clear to the beginning of novie some autumns of the past 7 years. we had snow near the end of october in 2020 and it was 78 to 83 between nov 4 and 8 .. yeah, not sure at your elevation with alpine right next door.

I take the question one step further ... I noticed that curve at Svalbard started that ascent really back in 2022, each year since accelerating relative to the previous year. The difference between 2021 and 2022 appears to be a factor of 2 > than just about any differential along the previous 120 years of that record keeping. Then, 2022-2023, which contains the global heat surging phenomenon, the rise was again ~ 1.5 X as long as 2021-2022, make it almost 4X more than the average deltas. It seems that which caused the global surge may have been underway prior to it actually showing up pervasively elsewhere ( spring of 2023 ). I wonder if other similar latitude station sites around the hemisphere also presaged the temperature surge, where they started lift off before the mid latitudes and the rest of us observed the explosive rise. One other aspect that puzzles me still ... why did the air over land, AND the ocean SSTs, rise together like that. It wasn't just the atmosphere that warmed all a once in the 'big burst'. everything cooked all at once. Otherwise, agreed ... the termination of the N branch of the g-stream up there may be mucking with matters.

temps in the 70s is summery to me 60s/40s is autumn maybe it's 'hybrid' seasonality but i'm just old enough with my pipe and rocking chair here to recall so many years where if were 70+ in autumn, it was resolute to being unusually warm weather. looking ahead ...the chances for 90 are fleeting - probably climatology, either way. 80s may be a stretch, too, unless the pattern breaks. while that is the way it looks as of today ... the cooler appeal has attenuated also. it's really looking ( to me ) like we're just in the process of correcting for models being too amplified out in time, in either direction. probably a rare 'normal' stretch + decimal CC footprint.

does 3 invest count as a flurry of activity

for me this study more reinforces what's already been known - or convincingly posited. https://phys.org/news/2024-08-reveals-crucial-role-atlantic-arctic.html the 'thermo-haline cycle' was a topic of either formulation or speculation dating back to the 1990s. t .. be that as it may, the warming surface waters then mixing with freshwater means less densification. lighter water doesn't sink as much - the downward 'chimney's that transport into deep depths have lesser amount of mass, such that there is less pull n of surface water to replace what is no longer falling. in the simplest sense, this cuts the circuitry ... slowing the amoc.

you're looking at this from a discrete thermometer aspect - no comment... but i'm talking about the geopotential medium and the synoptic layouts as it goes out in time. those two aspects are obviously indirectly connected. that cool shot brian's noting of mid month brings multiple inches of ccb cement across nw nf over the top of a high latitude coastal bomb it's a gfs thing it does at the end of august every year. contrasting, in april, it too often attempts to reset the pattern back to february in early may. it may in fact be mores so a transition season problem. the models not really useful beyond 8 or 9 days - not enough so to take it seriously, anyway - but these bias really underscore why that is

i can remember aug's in the 1980s down to just 40 f in acton between the 15th and the end of the month

you laugh but i've thought the gfs as suspect along similar for long while. have written tl;dr op eds aplenty in the past. in brief, its individual runs act as though the physical make up cleanses warmth out. either that, ...or in the aggregated sense it ends up with cool surplus. if one bothers to look above the latitude of the perceivable westerlies jet by d7 ...certainly by d10 and beyond, it consummately ends up with the largest region on the polar side when compared to the euro and ggem - a trait that is more or less observable in the gefs comparison, too. obviously okay to be the coolest look but when it always owns that or seems to, that becomes bias. i've never bothered to verify it

euro buckin for a coastal

i almost wonder if only the nooks and dales of central and northern alpine regions see frost in september, while the majority of us have trouble getting below 40 F heavy car top dewy mornings later in the month. our first convincing 'frost' this year may come from one of those anomalous synoptic october cold balls that drops into the lakes and sets up a minoring snow again.

summer's over in 3 days anyway ... may as well rip the band aide off the denial wound and let it scab over. haha i know i know for me, like probably everyone else ...the older i get the more i'm losing interest in winter - in fact, i'm probably already done if it were not for the singular intellectual curiosity over natural events; winter (in theory...) can still offer those opportunities, so it was thought. i got to say tho, the last decade's begun to shake my faith. tell you the truth (whether you asked or not heh) i don't give a ratz ass anymore about snow this or that. and if there is going to be a dearth of interesting events to offer that distraction then fuggit. i'd rather we just go 60 every day and really shock the shit out of all these CC down player types

absolute best satellite picture in possibly many, many years

my window units have set dormant - still in the sills ... cuz i'm procrastinating - since the end of july, a time when my new mini split/compressor tech came on-line. it's awesome. runs nearly silent and chills the main living area or where ever in mere moments, even when it's like 89/74 outside, using very low electric power.

wow... top 1 hour, if not day, out there. picturesque island cumulus set before an abyss of cobalt blue are not enough to prevent solar penetrating warmth immediately upon exposure. 74/53. no wind amid an ambience of probably the purest air this planet can create ...

just at a coarse look the featuring nearing 10N/30W looks like a 'zygote' entity to me. in fact it's already got a llv inflow into the western aspects, which interests me because no model really does much with it [ edit, actually the gfs's 6z appears to]. models seem to be focused further west along the itcz where presently there's only vague markers from what i can see.

yeah... at least if this over the top high pressure is going to cheat summer (suggestive in the fact that the hydrostatic heights are still above 564 dm!) merely enabling cool weather enthusiasts into thinking they're winning in that tick-for-tat back and forth pointless pass-time, i'm certainly glad that it is at least sunny up here along along rt 2.

i love how a broad band speed, and ping test, demonstrates zero lag and/or connectivity issues, respectively, to any site in the www, yet when attempting to connect to tropical tidbits i'm getting this You are currently offline, or your network connection is having trouble, and we are unable to show you the page you requested. it's a free site so it is what it is but there are other aspects about tt that are operationally weird. when doing cross guidance analysis, the site defaults to latest releases, no matter what, which throws off the interval comparison between them when in case usage. pivotal for example doesn't do this and is thus a superior product. and it also doesn't put a comm problem that is clearly his, back in your lap

they had that at 11:30 am tho or something way earlier than everywhere else, the closest of which at the time was 84