Typhoon Tip

Beginning to wonder if the term 'heat wave' is the right nomenclature for that western Pac thermal anomaly. Heat wave implies a beginning, and then an end. There is no "wave" if whatever is occurring does not ascend and then descend, or vice versa. This thing? ascended gradually over the last 10 years and has been transfixed - if perhaps wobbling around .. Perhaps it the waved nature extends over multi-decade. Then we'd have to get into the philosophy of whether time range disqualifies a wave phenomenon and ugh... Anyway, it's not behaving like a wave. In fact, it smacks like a 30 years from now ...the mean will be adjusted up because of it's presence, and the "anomaly" will disappear in the arithmetic means once the moving climate calcs are reapplied. It's just the new order, in other words. Not saying that's the case ... but it's not acting like a "wave" nonetheless. As an after thought, it seems as GW's gone up, this thing's emerged almost in lock step with the last 20 years of the GW acceleration. Gets easier to assume there's a connection there but just supposition for now I guess.

I dunno. The EPS synoptic evolution over the mid latitude continent is subtly cooler than the GEFs ... Heat's really sensitive to minor perturbations. Just the nature of atmospheric physics. Could go either way.

GEFs, GEPS and EPS means all with a three run warming trend Monday and Tuesday. GEFs in particular are sending mid upper 90s Tuesday by 18z. Wednesday is the hold out on a heat wave officially. Marginal due to front or convection... From this range, timing any summer front can be even more difficult at D5 as convection processing muddles what's happening in the physical processing of the models. Fair confidence in a pattern change - if perhaps temporarily - by mid week, though, so we're clearing the slate with a reprieve heat/dews for 2 or 3 days after Wednesday most likely. Beyond which skill pretty much does not exist. Fwiw, the GEFs signals heat return, while the Euro cluster does not. The operational GFS was the warmest model I saw for the Mon-Wed period, making low 90, upper 90s, and around 90.

The features overall lack stronger forcing behind why they are there. This creates more error, because the physics are less detectable in the grids --> therefore the processing shows increased variance. Blah blah ... no one gets what that means, but it results in having difficulty being consistent with the timing of the front. They are also confusing ( apparently ..) the front with the potential cool pooling associated with convection. This latter factor is even more incoherent and thus difficult in a weak mechanical field, because the convection triggers are in a space that is not well enough sampled. The ambient instability is there... so false triggers can and often do take over and corrupt the results. If there was a huge jet skirting by to the N, with a powerful front arrival, the models would nail down the timing, as well as distinguish what is the front and what is just outflow.

Was there the 30-year moving update and all that ?

I've sensed that bold amid the general denial ambit as it's been fairly obvious over the years, no doubt. I was not as aware of an organized "propaganda technique" (haha) as you say. I tend to ignore what is patently wrong out of box, so I'm not as privy to the general character of the on-going debate. Interestingly, I did however complain a longish while back that it was wasting time consummately re-engaging to explain and introduce CC objectively; yet the other side end-arounds that objectivity. That can only be explained by lack of learning capacity, or, an agenda. That's when it gets egregious dealing with deniers. Really fast! I've taken to ignoring outright. Everyone else should. Stop responding. Period. Let them have their cricket filled space. It would no longer be wasting anyone's time and eventually ..they stop trying - which try or not. Who cares at that point. The only problem with that is ... with 8 billion+ resource expensive human beings on this world, if even 1/100th of that total were to fail to acknowledge and abide by an eco-friendly, world-saving effort, we're all still fucked. That's called an untenable scenario. As an aside, we're already committed our future to technology to pick up the slack where hardheadedness fails, because the population being so large means the lower numbers of polluters still en masse put the system over thresholds. In short ...we'll have to innovate our way out of this mess. That's by no means license to profligate, either. It's a combined effort. But back on the tactical evasiveness, and strategic continuation of not-having-to-change-ways-of-life. It's a milquetoast manipulation tactic using some sort of politeness, and yeah it's beyond eye-rolling. It's also really a kind of gaslighting thing, too. ... The goal and design to bide the time. There's a transparency there; yet an apparent lack of self-awareness. They don't realize we know what they are up to. By engaging with them, it substantiates their effort and keeps them thinking their winning in their mind. That's why they need to be unilaterally ignored. It won't happen, of course. Just sayn' Not getting my attention though. When you're standing on the railroad tracks of certain destiny, and the iron is whirring beneath your feet, there's no time to argue the the real color of the shoes. Continuing the metaphor, it only seems one side of this discussion thinks changing shoes will stop the vibration. I bothered above because I was really describing the rate of change as the real detrimental impactor, for the broader audience. I sense an honest lack of that specific understanding in the general society - yeah... like we're actually going to frontier that in here. haha.

Man. Big heat Friday on this NAM run

You should let them get really really big and then throw rocks at them

Heh...that might be the day after tomorrow given this 18z NAM solution... jesus

" It really starts to materialize around 200+ hrs and runs out to the end of the run. More for muse then for now -"

Y'all cool weather thumpers may not wanna look at this Euro ... unless you want a dose of rat poison in your d-drip. I don't think I've seen the mean jet displaced this far N in any summer before... It really starts to materialize around 200+ hrs and runs out to the end of the run. More for muse then for now -

The I.Q. of god?

Perfect candidate for QC application, huh -

Not everyone - in fact ...few do - knows why

I expounded upon this exact concern. I think the original poll/question creation evinces a very superficial understanding - not just in the author, who may or may not have that limited awareness... (likely it's just poorly written). But I do find that elsewhere in society. A very linear and limited understanding in the general civilization, so much so that it doesn't lend to much 'intuitive' feel for crisis and thus they seldom come across as having that - let alone a more scienced perspective. It's incumbent upon the scientific community to learn a means to communicate the secondary ...nth degree causal feed-back depths that occur in complex systems in nature. This better sort of PR tact in bringing the perils of CC to the public eye was badly performed in the early days of this... The scientific tact was an attack on ways of life, ways of life multi-generation established and wholly dependent upon fossil fuels, both indirect and directly ... It just set the opposition table; not the understanding. It's been easy for Big OIl's counter-campaign, really, because of it. Now, denial itself is multi-generational.

"They also found that the more global warming a model simulated, the higher the likelihood was of abrupt shifts happening. At 1.5°C above average preindustrial temperatures, the target limit set by the Paris climate agreement, the researchers found that 6 out of 10 studied climate subsystems showed large-scale abrupt shifts across multiple models." https://phys.org/news/2025-07-abrupt-climate-shifts-global-temperatures.html

nailed the temperature on Christmas morning with that

The present satellite loop over the panhandle of TX looks and behaves remarkably similar to a TUTT

uh... not sure I was being skeptical of either solution. I was just noting the differences - although I'm not sure the +AO connotes a cooler regime in New England, should a more GEFesque solution pervade, but I'll stop shy of really digging into that. Both models (academically) suck giant donkey balls at that range so the whole bringing it up was just for muse. The teleconnection spread is neutral in scalar field values, neutral during a time of year when the correlations are not that great to begin with. Which means, between that kind of vagueness, and these operational runs being diametrical in their implications, and the fact that they suck at that range anyway... it all means flip a coin. anyone into the petty squabble between warm and cool is not taking any trophies for the time being. Brian's probably right. Go CC footprint and throw a few fronts through it. Probably AN but not hugely so. There may be a heat wave in Aug

This is fun ... check out the N Hemisphere rendering at 360 hours by the the GFS ( oper) left vs the ECMWF right. It's like +2 SD AO vs -2 SD AO Yet both try to make it cold here

It depends. In simple terms, the peril is not measured in merely "cooling" or "warming" It is a result of d(cooling)/dt or d(warming)/dt ( those mean 'rate of change' with respect to change in time ) #1, The vitality of the natural order of this planet cannot be realized if either a 2-4C cooling, or warming of that same magnitude, were to take place at a rate of change that exceeds species adaptation capacity. d(cooling)/dt > than d(adaptation)/dt = adaptation failure. Here's an example of this in geological history: https://phys.org/news/2025-07-fossils-earth-famous-extinction-climate.html Biological science has already defined a current mass extinction is under way. Goes by Holocene, even Anthropocene extinction event - the latter, because while others are cleverly denying, science has already mathematically proven that human activity, ranging from profligate resource sequestration ... annexing habitats that probably even morally shouldn't belong to us, and Climate change, ALL, are causing species to disappear at orders of magnitude greater than the previous archeologically defined rates that were associated with stable Earth-states. #2, Humans are perhaps the most adaptable organism known to this world. Our capacity for innovation is why. The fact that we live and thrive everywhere on the planet, regardless of specific ecologically defined region, evinces that. We do so, because we can. We invent the means. However, if #1 fails ... it is not abundantly clear that innovation will be able to "invent our way out of this crisis" - so to speak. Maybe we will. Maybe we won't. But that is an evolutionary gamble. That's the whole crisis. Not just whether the temperature is rising or falling. The question of cooling or warming is less useful without that deeper frame of understanding ( just op ed'ing here for the general reader - ) Humans are at the moment still wholly dependent upon the vast known, and unknown, eukaryotic and prokaryotic biota. Not just for their (external to our) biological existence, but their robust existence. They recycle the air we breath ( and use to destroy them ) with oxygen for the combustion in our cells, and the combustion that powers civility. They replenish nutrients into the soil and seas, which eventually/ultimately supplement the foods we need. All of it. Humans cannot do what they do, not at that scales required in order to stop what comes next if critical temperature sensitive species, of either kingdom, catastrophically fail because they could not adapt in time. Perhaps there's a bit of a race implied there. A gamble really is the best word. A really, really fucking stupid gamble. Because it's betting some eases of living pay back against extinction. Those that deny or argue against CC ... really don't understand that. They don't because they don't understand the premise farther above - one that is proven to really already have begun. It is thus far more logical to cease and desist activity that will cause stressing the pan-dimensional health of 'Gaia' (for lack of better word) beyond the point of adaptation. Until such time as compensating technological recourse' exist and are proven successful at mediating the health of an entire planet (Kardashev 1 civilization - We're not there yet) by alternate means, it is entirely academic what needs to be done.

It's interesting for me ... ...just eyeballing the data over at climatereanalyzer.org's interface ... I've noticed this in the past and this above is reminding me. There seems to be a vague, albeit non-zero, positive correlation coefficient among the various years of the aggregate graph. Namely, a downward trend 'tendency' shared among them, around the last week of Junes through the first week's of Julys. Then, most years resume an upward result that arcs over an apex during the last week of July and first week ( ~) of August. The latter is understandable and intuitive. But why there'd be this subtle tendency to offset seasonal rise around July 1 ... it may be just sample size related, true. I mean there's only 20 or so years out of the last 2,000,000 presented. Ha. Perhaps it is about as interesting as it is subtle, then. It might interesting to see the deeper historical sample size. Oh ... just as an after thought - maybe even obvious? The southern polar contribution in the solar "step latitudes" where the sun briefly dips below the horizon ( not from Earth's rotation, but because of the geometry of it's revolution around the sun), might be related to that. In that 10 or so day period ... there's say, a 'shock' proficiency of energy loss in that ring latitude. The sun then reappearing during the day, however feeble, is enough to add decimals back, and that no longer offsets the total and the previous dynamic resumes.. Heh, as another after-observation ... there's a tendency at the other end, last week of Dec's, to see a trend up. That may be the mirror effect in the other direction.

There's a pretty interesting finding wrt our neighborhood super giant ... https://phys.org/news/2025-07-hidden-neighbor-astronomers-companion-star.html

Probably this was temperature nadir this week. With evaporating moisture adding back to anomalous dry DPs that arrived recently ... more WV is like a thermal battery at this time of year. As the days shorten later in August, this can be offset by dew deposition but it's too early in the season for that. There'll be dew tonight but it won't ring out the WV in time prior to sun up etc... Heat wave later in the week? Heights certainly correlate, but as usual the 2-m products are at the bottom of the potential range. Except for Friday.. woof. The front my be too aggressive for CNE but not a pistol to head forecast either. The geopotential height medium appears subtly to hesitate the receding after Thur-Fri period... This may be the beginning of a trend to retard the frontal suppression - we'll have to see. It's the time of year for that sort of correction. But out there in the extended, the EPS is very bullish on a deep -2.5 type SD anomalous SPV up there over eastern Canada ... The GEFs is more seasonally compliant on that... while the operational runs of everything are as usual, deeper than their respective ens means. So there's some relative moving error potential on that.

There's blocking at higher latitudes over the western Aleutian arch and also up over the western Beaufort Sea, but that's far away. It is unclear in summer wave scaling if that would be much of an exertion on the circulation mode over eastern N/A's mid latitudes ... Meanwhile, the NAO is rising positive - though telecon correlation in summer gets rather vague. Right now the EPO and PNA are flatlining neutral, making any signal utterly not there either way. I sense these operational runs - which are exhibiting typical summer bad continuity out in time - are about as useful as shitty toilet paper. Just go back two runs in the GFS and it's different hemisphere. As we've noted many times in the past ... these deep vortices/SPV's in the late mid ranges tend to de-amplify in time. True in winter or summer. I don't know, it seems to me we've been down this end summer in the middle of summer routine before, and routinely these haven't occurred. The onus is on one of those to actually verify.