Kevin Reilly

Totally the Key looks like the trough is pulling Ian north into the Gulf then as the trough lifts out Ian is only able to get so far north to say Venice Florida on the West Coast before Ian gets tugged NE or ENE through Florida and then leaving near Cape Canaveral to eventually turn north bound towards the Carolinas as the trough over us leaves Ian behind and able to come north bound up the Coast. Looks like the models are opening the door to this possibility and it will be very interesting to see if the 0z and 12z suites continue to advertise this situation. Hey, the NAO is going from Negative to positive moving upwards on October 1st which often does indicate a storm moving up the East Coast. I suppose time will tell.

I think it will be south of Tampa think this comes so far north then gets the boot ene not too different then Charley did in July 2004. I am thinking somewhere between Venice and Englewood 120 mph.

I think it will be south of Tampa think this comes so far north then gets the boot ene not too different then Charley did in July 2004. I am thinking somewhere between Fort Meyers and Sarasota.

I have a friend that lives in Cape Coral west of Fort Myers Beach surge will be a huge problem prolonged SSW flow right into the coast and in the East and Northeast quadrant. Don't forget about the tornado threat too. This is going to be pretty bad if this evolves the way that it is modeled. Gotta hope for dry air and wind shear to weaken this down.

Charley did this in 2004 Punta Gorda to Orlando to Daytona then off into the Atlantic did so fairly quickly this will be anything but quick though. Looks like it runs into the ridge then a slow bounce off to the ENE or NE in time.

Blocking hitting a brick wall from High Pressure Building SW from the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic recipe for flooding and surge disaster Fort Myers North to the Coastal Bend of Florida.

Actually, I would think there would be a lot of overrunning rains tropical air being forced up and over the cooler drier air coming down from the northeast especially if the trailing cold front is still down there. Flooding is a huge threat.

Probably shear WSW and dry air intruding SE

Yep Opal 1995 made landfall in western Florida Panhandle was a category 4 storm about 200 miles prior to landfall and made it onshore with 95 mph winds barely shear and Dry air did it in.

It would seem to me that the models are really honking on a tremendous amount of shear and dry air located into the Southeastern states upon arrival of Ian to the Florida West Coast or up in the Panhandle. There has been dry air up here in the Middle Atlantic and the dry air behind these troughs up here is very stout. I mean it was 43 degrees here in Southeastern Pa with dewpoints running in the lower to middle 30's that type fo dry air means business, and I don't see any reason that the dry air would charge southeast towards Ian behind a trough leaving the Mid Atlantic next week.

Blocking area of high pressure with lots of dry air to the north I am sure.

We shall see but the pattern lately has had a lot of dry air in the eastern states, but I think it's a bit early to determine that right now. Now with the set up I would think there would be a SSW flow of a fairly most airm mass. Looks like it could be a similar set up with Fiona to the east moving NNE into Nova Scotia except this is further west then move up the Piedmont into the Norhtern Mid Atlantic. I see some models are out in Ohio Valley think that may be too far west.

I have seen a lot of talk about the Tonga Volcanic Eruption that apparently spewed and unprecedented amount of water vapor into the atmosphere this may or may not be having an impact as well. Think they need more research on this. Yes, I know it is supposed to be a La Ninia as well too.

I’ve looking over the weather patterns over the eastern Pacific lower 48 Gulf Caribbean and Atlantic all of the upper level lows in southern Atlantic Carribean moisture flows coming from Central America into Eastern Gulf and now the 11th named storm churning up the Baja to Southern California all comes to me to be an east Based El Niño set up??? Thoughts maybe I’m off base.

Well, for me it means that this remnant tropical system which I have in my lifetime, (or maybe I just don't remember the last tropical system to affect them??) never seen before going up into Southern California is going to happen. There will be significant flooding for sure. They need to batten down the hatches for winds out of the Southeast and heavy rain.

Here in Media Delaware County picked up 4.05" not bad all of this fell 5:50 AM to 11:35 AM

Zip nothing here in Media Delaware County yet.

Anyone see the 18z Gfs sends a tropical system into Southern California inches and inches of rain

National Weather Service says hold on the instruments were broken that is why it was 84.7 degrees saw that article last week Philadelphia Inquire.

Yes, that was quite the evolution of a storm up here come in from the west head east then turn around and head west again. Also, at 240 looks like we have a tropical system ready to move to the NW towards the United States East Coast?

Katrina did the same thing over the everglades moved southwest then resumed a west then northwest turn.

I appreciate your dedication to getting the data together while I am sure it is enjoyable it does take a lot of time. I am happy to hear what goes on your neck of the woods compared to here about 35 miles to your SE in Media.

Where was the Volcano eruption? Are we talking the one in the southwest Pacific back in early June?

18z gfs has a 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm on August 30th for here if not zip until maybe September 15th.

This isn't really surprising that's been the pattern basically since early July strong WSW to ENE flow basically Southeastern States to Outer Banks out to sea that's been one flow and then well north another fast west to east flow across the Great Lakes into the Northern Mid Atlantic then moves ENE from there, that has been the biggest reason for the drought Mason Dixon Line Points NE to Southeastern New England. It is very dry up in these regions right now obviously unrelated to tropical system but to the pattern that will steer it. My two cents probably at this point it is a 50/50 whether it turns north and moves out sea or cuts across the Bahamas across south Florida and into the Gulf. In our pattern over the past 4-5 weeks, I would say moving West across south Florida into the Gulf would be my pick due to the ridge placements up north and the upper air lows that were passing south of Cuba recently.