Kevin Reilly

Media Pa 13 miles southwest of PHL partly cloudy high mid-level clouds 27 dewpoint now 17 was 14 around 8 pm. wind East 4 mph

Media PA southeastern PA we have 28 degrees and dewpoint of 14 degrees but with a dreaded southeast wind at 2 mph so temps will hold steady and slowly rise soon.

The January Thaw has begun and the Weenie jumpers will persist.

I mean this could suggest some dynamic uplifting with thunderstorms turning from rain to snow quickly with gusty winds and snow and sleet bursting graupel maybe something I remember seeing in the middle 80's 1985 or 1986 one of those years.

The Earth must be shifting?

I am assuming Mount Mitchell? or probably northern North Carolina either way a sad state we are in when it comes to snow around these neck of the woods.

Welcome to North Carolina!

How many years now have we seen this firehose off the Pacific???? This is one of the largest contributing factors why cold in the lower 48 is scoured out time and time again. The end result is a very fast progressive flat flow for the most part across the United States that then promotes ridging off the Atlantic Seaboard or from the Gulf of Mexico. We keep dumping warmth into the largest ocean of the world and the end results are warming winters that feature less snow for some areas especially namely ours.

You forgot one scattered power outages too.

The next phrase is, "Winter is over see ya next year" Coming into the winter season here were my two worries: #1 La Nina #2 Tremendous Ocean warmth Pacific, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic #3 Southeast Ridge So, all of the above these factors are wrecking our winters in regard to sustained cold and snow in the Middle Atlantic. I am sure all these factors above are all obvious to everyone. If you want to roll in global warming and warm ocean temps not locking in 50/50 lows that can be included.

This does make the most sense if there is a block to our north in Eastern Canada. Your statement makes the most sense to me, "Possible that both camps are not wrong. Could turn out to be an inland/cutter low with a transfer to a coastal.

We can blame the toasty waters of the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast Coast the Warm Fence is up from basically Cape Hatteras all points south. Warmth in the Southwestern Atlantic promotes ridging welcome to La Nina and a new climate.

Chestnuts roasting on an OPEN FIRE Jack Frost Nipping at your Nose!

I bet we get more clarity come Saturday to Monday as the current storm that is coming tonight clears out of the way and the models see the new pattern. We have to see where the baroclinic zone sets up.

snow globe effect very fast northern Jet under the block and the southern jet screaming out to sea not to connect with a phased storm which can change. We need at least 4 days to work on that solution.

18z GFS certainly did make a move towards the 12z CMC solution. 12z GFS and CMC were off oh about 850 miles now they are off by about 145 miles LOL. There is significant potential Dec. 23rd from what I can see. It's becoming clear to me looking over the models over the last week until today is that the storm coming Wednesday to late Friday is the pattern changer then we look to get hit good the weekend of Christmas December 23rd.

One word sleet.

Yes, true true then there is December 23rd, 2009, when we got 23" of snow in Media with a water temperature at ACY at 53 degrees.

Hmm that's quite a jump to the east of the low along the coast and then gets shoved off the coast. If that storm is intensifying at all I would think it could drag down some cold air from the north and switch rain to snow along and just north and west of the Delaware River Wilmington towards Trenton.

But this is the new normal around here gnashing of teeth. You can thank the Nina and warm Atlantic. When the Atlantic is warm it is a dam if you do dam if you don't teeter totter that we ride between storm intensity, track, and lower and upper-level wind flow off ever warming ocean to our east and southeast.

Yep, there was 23" in Media Delaware County storm total just 13 miles southwest of Philadelphia International Airport. What was amazing to me was the very heavy snow with winds out of the west blowing 35-50 mph.

What happened to that cad signature the gfs modeled 24 hours ago? There is no antecedent cold air mass. The storm only produces snow as the storm manufactures it's own cold air as it deepens and also pulls down more cold air down from the NNE. There is no cold high to the north just a block. Places Mason Dixon Line NE have rain to snow as the storm slowly pulls away.

I would be worried about marginal cold air prior to the system and pretty toasty Atlantic Waters and the winds in off the ocean. I do not see how this system is a purely wintery affair the only way is if the whole set up is further east.

What's that 40-70 miles with 5.5 days left that's doable.

So, we are in the game, and we still have time Ralph! Actually, its pretty early in the game only 2 minutes into the 1st quarter. (Football analogy there)