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Kevin Reilly

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  1. Kevin Reilly
    Over the past 36-48 hours of runs concerning this system late week they are all over the place perfect evolution, to crushed sheared south, to now over amped. I will wait. Somehow, I think the solution is somewhere in between let's see the Euro. I do not trust the GFS especially way too volatile.
  2. Kevin Reilly
    Yea but at least it is trying to get something going even in separate pieces. It would not take much for the GFS to revert back to what it showed just 24 hours ago. It would appear to me that the GFS is having difficulty ironing out how strong of a PNA out west and also struggling with the strength of the block in the Northeast. We have seen this song and dance before time and time again. Chances are the 12z GFS is a step toward the Euro or a revert back to the what the GFS showed Friday morning.
  3. Kevin Reilly
    So, Dr. No did not follow the GFS. So, you are saying we have a chance! Clearly the PNA out west will tell us how this evolves and comes up the coast next weekend and the NAO holds the key to blocking and where the rain snow line goes. Us in the coastal plain should be a bit concerned of the warm Atlantic and Delaware Bay head waters which are solidly in the middle and upper 50's still. Gotta have the NE or NNE wind vector along the I-95 corridor to Chester, Bucks, and Motgomery county to lock in the colder air. Hopefully we do not see that annoying warm tongue come in and switch many over to sleet and I am expecting it. I guess for now just keep on keeping on and let's get the storm here.
  4. Kevin Reilly
    I would agree. GFS and CMC look sooo different. It will be interesting to see what Dr. No says. My gut tells me follow the GFS though. In all honesty though I will not give it up until Tuesday or so. Guess this is better than Sunny and 55 or Cloudy Drizzle and 52 at Midnight!
  5. Kevin Reilly
    0z GFS continues the shred and south. Maybe it becomes a southern slider or trends back north time will tell. I think we have seen this song and dance before in the past though. Now with that said the zonal look does have me worried under the block, but hey the cold will come and line things up for maybe December 18th to 24th period.
  6. Kevin Reilly
    Fixed!
  7. Kevin Reilly
    GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits Maybe the 0z run of the GFS last night is just a week too late?
  8. Kevin Reilly
    18z GFS is a complete dumpster fire with blocking with no cold air. Two lows get blocked off the Jersey shore which would be great if only there was cold air these are our new times. The warm oceans rule!
  9. Kevin Reilly
    Squall line through brief heavy rain gusty winds temp was 56 now down to 52.
  10. Kevin Reilly
    The sun has peaked out here a few times last hour otherwise cloudy 0.52" of rain today 56 degrees dewpoint 53 pressure 29.78 winds SW 25-35 typical weather associated with the La Nina Lakes Cutters. I am trying to be patient, but I have seen this song and dance before. My theory is to blame the warm Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico Waters. Let's see what happens between December 9th to 15th for further clues if winter will show up this year or not.
  11. Kevin Reilly
    suppose it's their December outlook? You know how they are they change every 3-model cycle runs.
  12. Kevin Reilly
  13. Kevin Reilly
    Accuweather already has spoken Warm Dry and Mild Maine to Florida west to the Ohio Valley all the way to Texas and all points in between sorry! LOL
  14. Kevin Reilly
    I Remember the GFS on Tuesday, November 22nd on its 12z run was showing a 4-8" snowstorm on December 8th coming up from the southwest moving northeast off the Virgina Capes.
  15. Kevin Reilly
    I am quite sure that As Paul (Chescowx) has the past data that would support this too for the fall line and beyond! I would say.... buckle up tool.
  16. Kevin Reilly
    I love seeing digital chances sometimes just as much as the real thing because we can see what can happen and then what probably will not happen. However, I love how our outlook is for after the first week of December.
  17. Kevin Reilly
    As captured in Media Delaware County: December +1.5F 1" monthly total January +1F 7" monthly total February -1.5F 11" monthly total March +2F 2" monthly total Year Total 21"
  18. Kevin Reilly
    Media Delaware County 39 dewpoint 20 breezy now light snow.... first flakes of the season have arrived.
  19. Kevin Reilly
    Chances are with that pattern any storm that comes along will pass very close by and will drag up the warm air from the south and this pattern screams cold rains and temps in the 40's unless the entire pattern propagates east off the coast.
  20. Kevin Reilly
    Very dark dank and dreary here in Media Delaware County we had a few waves of heavy rain, but everything has ended and lifted off to the NNE. Wind is now beginning to pick up out of the South. Winds on the order of 10-15 with a few gusts to 25mph. Total rain here is 1.25" as of 3:20 pm. We had 0.46" at 1:40 PM so that gives you an idea of the intensity of the heavy rain bands that moved though. No significant flooding that I saw outside of a small intersection that had 2 feet of water due to water runoff and leaves probably blocking the drain.
  21. Kevin Reilly
    Not only is it not a hurricane model it really should be a model that is retired. The NAM in some cases is a useless model. Perhaps it is good for showing dynamics within 24 hours of an event but that's about it.
  22. Kevin Reilly
    We shall see if the models trend to move NE and then exit off the East Coast with eyes up the coast to the Carolinas and beyond gotta think that is on the table as the trough moves out leaving Ian behind and high pressure builds off the East Coast.
  23. Kevin Reilly
    Totally the Key looks like the trough is pulling Ian north into the Gulf then as the trough lifts out Ian is only able to get so far north to say Venice Florida on the West Coast before Ian gets tugged NE or ENE through Florida and then leaving near Cape Canaveral to eventually turn north bound towards the Carolinas as the trough over us leaves Ian behind and able to come north bound up the Coast. Looks like the models are opening the door to this possibility and it will be very interesting to see if the 0z and 12z suites continue to advertise this situation. Hey, the NAO is going from Negative to positive moving upwards on October 1st which often does indicate a storm moving up the East Coast. I suppose time will tell.
  24. Kevin Reilly
    I think it will be south of Tampa think this comes so far north then gets the boot ene not too different then Charley did in July 2004. I am thinking somewhere between Venice and Englewood 120 mph.
  25. Kevin Reilly
    I think it will be south of Tampa think this comes so far north then gets the boot ene not too different then Charley did in July 2004. I am thinking somewhere between Fort Meyers and Sarasota.
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