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Kevin Reilly

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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly

  1. Kevin Reilly
    Umm I think 1995-96 was a La Niña year?
  2. Kevin Reilly
    Again, like the other night I don't remember any of this in the forecast today? Once again, our state of weather and forecasting is in chaos after our 60-degree days so Wiggum Rule maybe the storm on Friday pulls a rabbit out of the hat?? I mean some of the models have a good storm track then the lack of cold air???
  3. Kevin Reilly
    Just take note of the ocean water temps Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, Carribean or any other body of water in the world? Why too do you think you are seeing the extreme events around the Buffalo area all you had to do is look at the temps of the water in the Great Lakes.
  4. Kevin Reilly
    zero cold high up north this in the not-so-distant past would be 1-2 feet of snow for most locations. What is this telling you then? (Again, don't mean to beat a dead horse but warm warm warm off the ocean and other places to our south southwest, and southeast. It's a dam shame because with a cold high up north this is a MECS or even blizzard for a few locations. I will say that 981mb is getting close to a storm that can produce its own cold air?
  5. Kevin Reilly
    Let me guess keep climbing the ladder to get as high up as you can to see some mangled darting snowflakes in the rain at 35 degrees or am I being too optimistic?
  6. Kevin Reilly
    Last night I was going to bet on snow? Well tonight as I look at a screaming jet off the pacific and crazy ocean warmth sitting in the Gulf and off the southeast coast I’d think we will be seeing more in the way of tornado outbreaks. It wouldn’t shock me to see 70s in February with 50-65 mph winds heavy rain severe thunderstorms along with tornadoes Mid Atlantic like we saw in February 2017. I think it was that year?
  7. Kevin Reilly
    Yep, this should be great for elevations above 1,000 feet... Oh Dam Media Delaware County is only at 350 feet. I will start building a tower up into the sky or ask Puss in Boots to steal a few magic beans from Jack and Jill!
  8. Kevin Reilly
    Yes, 1996!! I will go back in my time machine Marty McFly! Where are You!!! I need your Delorian!
  9. Kevin Reilly
    The fetch off the Atlantic is just too long over warmer waters this warmth will barrel inland far!
  10. Kevin Reilly
    I am not getting excited about that it's not even close to snow really for the I-95 crew but a week away the winds are coming right out of the east and in some cases east-southeast may want to gander at the water temps this thing needs to be further east and northeast.
  11. Kevin Reilly
    I mean I have been saying for days and months how warm the oceans are this is the result! Dumping warm air into the oceans... water takes longer to cool down then the land so maybe we have a shot in February or March?
  12. Kevin Reilly
    Gotta be all rain as you know the water temps in Sea Isle to Delaware Bay is running 47-49 or so.
  13. Kevin Reilly
    I am sure you will have another chance to be knocked in the nuts I am not believing but hey 81 hours out! It's like waiting to see if you football team will make it to the playoff with a win and needing 4 other teams to lose to get in. I think I am also pulling my $20.00 bet as it is too rich for my blood in the warm progressive pattern.
  14. Kevin Reilly
    Umm we just had a down pour with small hail and a rumble of thunder was this supposed to happen tonight??? Looks like to me we have a little chaos in our pattern I like that as a start to something different coming this time next week. Hmmm or possibly sooner come Sunday / Monday??
  15. Kevin Reilly
    Hmmm my first initial thought was to keep it conservative like $20.00 lol. I am sure if we did this especially this year we would fail knowing the track record.
  16. Kevin Reilly
    I will put $ on Euro/eps/gefs
  17. Kevin Reilly
    Didn't someone say they wanted to move to North Carolina not too long-ago LOL! Come on now we know better we all know where this will be in 4-5 days.
  18. Kevin Reilly
    Sounds like the models are in chaos to me which is better than nailing down a Cutter to Hudson bay all solutions are on the table LOL but that is the reality. Wiggum rule though could it be?
  19. Kevin Reilly
    All about wind flow off the warm Atlantic or Gulf death to snow chances around here. near 60 degrees at Cape Hatteras and still in the mid and some places upper 70's in the Gulf. The oceans Pacific, Gulf, and Atlantic right now are wrecking our snow chances and the wind flow off of those warm bodies of water. We need a plunge of arctic air to create the monster storm I suppose.
  20. Kevin Reilly
    Yep, what we have been battling for a bit a progressive pattern understatement really. Nothing can lock in whether it is the cold precipitation holding on and waiting for the cold to crash in.
  21. Kevin Reilly
    So, a 33% Chance. So, you are telling me we have a chance!!
  22. Kevin Reilly
    I would think that warmer SST's in the oceans would cause a warmer air mass overall and also a much more progressive pattern not locking in cold to produce your "normal" wintertime snowfall.
  23. Kevin Reilly
    Here are some pictures from Niagra Falls NY. The first picture was exactly 7 days ago. The second is from today.
  24. Kevin Reilly
    Here are some pictures from Niagra Falls NY. The first picture was exactly 7 days ago. The second is from today.
  25. Kevin Reilly
    Your best shot is most likely Niagra Falls / Buffalo area all you need is a good wind flow over a warm lake and presto you have 70+" an event November to December just bring a good survival kit.
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