GaWx

Just after the least active GEFS run in awhile (the 0Z with only 1 member (3%) having a TC) and despite the 6Z GFS being still another run without a TC from the central MDR wave, the 6Z GEFS with 5 TCs from 31 members (16%) is the most active GEFS to this point. All 5 members landfall in the CONUS (4 E coast, 1 FL Keys and panhandle) with 3 of these 5 landfalling twice. And this is with a still very active EPAC.

1. Whereas most models have EPAC activity, some with two TCs, the GFS has been about the strongest with these. Regardless, I don’t know that that’s wrong and don’t know whether or not that’s relevant to its lack of an Atlantic TC. 2. Whereas the 6Z GFS is still another without an Atlantic TC from the central MDR wave and just after the least active GEFS run in awhile (0Z GEFS had only 1 member (3%) with a TC), the 6Z GEFS with 5 TCs from 31 members (16%) is the most active GEFS to this point. All 5 members landfall in the CONUS (4 E coast, 1 FL Keys and panhandle) with 3 of these 5 landfalling twice. And this more active GEFS is with still a very active EPAC.

For E Atlantic AEW, here are 0Z runs: -CMC high end TS FL panhandle late 8/5 -Euro forms into a TD just NE of Bahamas, becomes a cat 1 H, recurves 250 miles SE of NC OB, and approaches SE Newfoundland at 240. EPS not out yet -ICON, UK, GFS: no TC -GEFS: only one member with a TC (vs ~3 on 12Z/18Z) Edit: 0Z Euro ensemble: maybe not quite as active as prior 2 runs but still active and once again supports its operational with about all of the TCs hitting or nearby US E coast; good number of landfalls upper SC or NC with a few in the NE US

Chuck, Your maps make sense because the correlation of a +PNA to cold in the SE is stronger than it is in the NE and also stronger in the SE to that from -EPO. Per your maps: -the correlation to BN temps of a +PNA is 0.3-0.5 in the SE vs 0.0-0.25 in the NE. So, in SE, +PNA is more crucial to cold than -EPO with the combo typically being the coldest. -the correlation to BN temps of a -EPO is only 0.1-0.3 in the SE vs 0.3-0.4 in the NE. So, in the NE and especially New England, a -EPO is much more crucial to cold than +PNA. -the correlation to BN temps in the Midwest and Plains is 0.25-0.5 for -EPO vs a mainly negative correlation for +PNA. -of course it gets more complex when considering what combo of PNA and EPO exists

The 7/26 OISSTa drop of 0.17 is the largest since at least early May. RONI is likely now finally back into Niña

12Z EPS: active with almost all of its TCs near or off E coast vs GOM. So, supports Euro op, which has H just off NC.

0Z EPS back to being similar to the very active 0Z run of 24 hours ago, especially LA through FL through E seaboard.

Rain finally lightened up considerably ~40 minutes ago. The street out front flooded and even the sidewalks flooded on both sides as water went well over the curbs. I’m guessing that was ~3” rain within one hour. Keep in mind I had 5” during the 7 days before this giving me ~11.25” for July to date! I’ve had lots of storms this month but this complex of storms appears to have taken the cake. Besides the rain (along with decent winds near the start), the CTG lightning frequency was among the worst I can recall at least in several years. The radar detected 800+ strokes within 15 minutes over the area! Many vehicles got stuck in flooding.

Not in my immediate area but now there’s this (by the way I got 2”+ of rain within 30 minutes)! Now ~10.5” for month! Edit: 800+ lightning strokes detected in the area within 15 minutes!!THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 730 PM EDT. * AT 658 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WINDSOR FOREST, MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... COFFEE BLUFF, WINDSOR FOREST, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, MONTGOMERY, VERNONBURG, WHITE BLUFF AND FORT MCALLISTER ——————- 709 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024 ...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR BRYAN AND CHATHAM COUNTIES... AT 709 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WINDSOR FOREST, MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A WELL DEFINED FUNNEL CLOUD AND COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AT ANY TIME. Edit ———————0630 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 NNW SAVANNAH 32.08N 81.10W 07/26/2024 CHATHAM GA PUBLIC AN INDIVIDUAL ON REPORTED A VIDEO ON SOCIAL MEDIA OF A FUNNEL CLOUD FROM ELECTRIC MOON SKYDECK AT THE JW MARRIOTT HOTEL. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

There’s a deluge here from a thunderstorm: edit: had some wind with this earlier but now the CTG is very close with numerous strokes, worst I’ve seen in a long time! Lost my Comcast connection. Power went out but came back.CHATHAM GA-JASPER SC- 638 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024 ..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT THIS EVENING * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, CHATHAM AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, JASPER. * WHEN...UNTIL 930 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WATER OVER ROADWAYS. OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 636 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF JASPER COUNTY, SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

12Z EPS: still has members with a TC (~10) but that’s only ~1/2 as many as 0Z had. About 8 of these 10 hit the CONUS from LA around to NC Aug 4-8.

The 12Z Euro has no closed surface low. It looks somewhat like the 12Z CMC with just a wave that reaches the W GOM at 240 hours. More importantly, let’s see how the 12Z EPS looks.

Getting heavy rain from a thunderstorm now. Due to a combo of potential heavy rain today with very heavy rains earlier this week and last weekend (5” IMBY), a flood watch was already in effect for today/tonight. It did lighten up pretty quickly, however. *Edit: ended up with only ~0.25” due to it lasting only a short time

It’s a “lovely” 84.9 here with plenty of humidity. By the way that’s inside my house, not outside. (My AC isn’t working). Actually, that’s better than the 87-88 of late yesterday. But the day is still young. Regardless, clouds and nearby storms are helping though the humidity is off the charts.

Don, Check the 0Z 7/23 WB CFS run below. It has the same pattern of extreme cold anomaly over S Lake Michigan (-8C/-14.4F) much warmer (normal) over N Lake Michigan, and back to very cold in S Canada (-4C/-7.2F):

Hope it’s like 2010 trackwise but the prospects for that aren’t good. Plus we’ve already had a bad hit from Beryl. Besides danger to lives the last thing U.S. needs is huge amount of damage leading to insurers no longer being able to take risk of providing coverage. Could lead to a catastrophe with lack of insurance coverage. Destruction from Ian in 2022 was a sad/terrible thing to see.

Wow, almost opposite of now! Now has strong cold below top warm layer. June of 1954 had strong warmth below cold layer.

Thanks for posting this. He keeps posting specific next to impossible extreme cold Weather Bell CFS runs. Note that I said WeatherBell CFS runs rather than just CFS runs. The WB generated CFS maps are being run on seriously flawed algorithms. For one thing many have been showing SST anomalies consistent with a +PDO, including a 4000 mile long by 1000 mile wide of solid BN SSTa stretching from just E of Japan to just N of Hawaii! Other companies’ CFS runs always have the near opposite (strong -PDO)! Notice on this 2m temp map what keeps showing up on about all of these very cold runs: whereas S Lake Michigan is near the coldest in the US the same runs practically ALWAYS have a small area of near normal in N Lake Michigan or just 250 miles to the NNE! And then they often go back to extreme cold just to the N in S Canada! They’re severely flawed.

Today’s SOI is at +2. The models suggest that the SOI will peak in the +15 to +20 range on Fri (7/26). However, it then looks to fall back considerably as a strong low passes S of Tahiti early next week with a progged drop to ~-20 7/29-30. This all translates to July SOI as a whole coming in ~-3 to -4. That will continue the string of neutral months since Mar. There has yet to be a Ninaish SOI (say +5+). We’ll see whether or not August is the first one. The prior transitions from Nino to Niña were similarly slow in 2016, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1983, 1970, and 1954. All of those peaked only weak or low end moderate La Niña on an ONI basis except the strong of 2007. But the transitions in 2010, 1998, 1988, 1973, and 1964 already had solidly +SOI by May or June. Of those faster transitions, all ended up with a strong ONI based La Nina peak except the weak peak of 1964. So what this all tells me is that due to them tending to be a leading indicator, recent months of SOIs are favoring a weak to low end moderate Niña peak later this year at most vs high end moderate to strong (ONI basis): https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Thanks. I need to clarify something. The outside unit’s fan is working fine (on continuously), but I listened more closely since my prior post. The compressor, itself, is actually staying on for only 15-20 seconds at a time and then it shuts off for 1.5 minutes. That cycle keeps repeating. When compressor is on, I feel hot air blowing. When off, the air blowing out is not hot. Also, neither pipe connected to it feels cold. Edit: I googled central AC compressor turns on and off and found this great YouTube video: it suggests it could be the “filter drier”, which I had never heard of before:

What a time for the A.C. (only ~11.5 years old) to suddenly stop working. Dewpoints here are in the high 70s. It had never given me any problems whatsoever up through earlier today. The inside unit’s blower is moving air but the air coming out through the vents isn’t cool. The outdoor unit is also running. There’s no icing evident. The filter had been replaced just 3 weeks ago and is hardly dirty. The brand is Trane.

That winter had only a moderate -PDO, the weakest -PDO since 2019-20. Also, it was during a quiet solar flux/sunspot period. In addition, it was easily the most -NAO winter since 2010-1.

I measured 1.75” over ~1.5 hours (~4:45-6:15 PM) (~5” last 4 days) (~~8” this month) though Doppler radar estimates are 2-4” over much of the area 3-6:15 PM today, which started in downtown. That lead to a flash flood warning. The flooding was made worse due to heavy rains just 2-3 days ago. Even though I got a little more on Saturday (~2”), today’s 1.75” lead to more standing water in the yard. It has finally decreased to light rain. This heavy rain was over a not very wide portion of the county from downtown SW to Georgetown. The heavy band was inland but parallel to the coastline. The beach/islands and the well inland airport got much less to almost nothing.

It’s a repeat of Saturday evening here (which gave me just over 2”) including nearby CTG lightning:FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 445 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2024 GAC051-222245- /O.NEW.KCHS.FA.Y.0048.240722T2045Z-240722T2245Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHATHAM GA- 445 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2024 ..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT THIS EVENING * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. * WHERE...A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, CHATHAM. * WHEN...UNTIL 645 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 444 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN BETWEEN DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AND CHATHAM CITY. - ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING. ———————— Just like on Saturday evening:PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 517 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2024 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0510 PM FLOOD SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W 07/22/2024 CHATHAM GA 911 CALL CENTER EMERGENCY RESPONDERS AND TRAFFIC MAPS ARE REPORTING SEVERAL FLOODED ROADWAYS ACROSS THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERAL VEHICLES ARE FLOODED.

Thunderstorms popping up in the area along the seabreeze front. Thundering here now. This could be a doozy.