GaWx

The 12Z Euro still has the E coast storm next week. So, currently the 12Z run non-AI main global models with it are the CMC (its first time) and the Euro (3rd time in a row at 0Z/12Z as 6Z/18Z have yet to have it, which I could tell because 144 hours was far out enough to tell). Also, the 12Z Euro AIFS still has it, too.

My stance has and still is: -whereas CC/AGW has its clearly detrimental effects and thus I’m not happy about it (plus I selfishly prefer cold over warmth way down here in the deep SE), its effects aren’t all bad and are naturally largely being ignored by the extreme doomsayers. I‘m referring mainly to the increased greening of the globe that has occurred due to increased CO2 and also the reduced number of deaths from cold, which has killed many more than heat per organizations that compile the stats even though the balance could change if it gets hot enough, of course -there very could be some negative feedback loops that aren’t being modeled well as regards how much warmer it will ultimately get, which if true would mean that the worst case scenarios aren’t realistic

Full rundown of 12Z main global non-AI for the possible E coast storm next week excluding the not yet released Euro: The 12Z UKMET, after 3 full runs in a row with an E coast “tropical cyclone”, has no TC and not even an E coast storm as the non-tropical low forms well offshore (300 miles) and then moves out NE from there to just NW of Bermuda. 12z Icon is much further offshore than its 0Z with little E coast effect. 12Z GFS is a bit closer (similar to the 0Z) but like for the 0Z the low still is far enough out to have little effect on the E coast as it then moves out. OTOH, the 12Z CMC is its first run with effects on the E coast with it getting caught 300 miles SE of the Carolinas and then then coming back WSW to Jacksonville on 10/23. That’s now an extreme outlier pending what the 12Z Euro shows.

Full rundown of 12Z main global non-AI for the possible E coast storm next week excluding the not yet released Euro: The 12Z UKMET, after 3 full runs in a row with an E coast “tropical cyclone”, has no TC and not even an E coast storm as the non-tropical low forms well offshore (300 miles) and then moves out NE from there to just NW of Bermuda. 12z Icon is much further offshore than its 0Z with little E coast effect. 12Z GFS is a bit closer (similar to the 0Z) but like for the 0Z the low still is far enough out to have little effect on the E coast as it then moves out. OTOH, the 12Z CMC is its first run with effects on the E coast with it getting caught 300 miles SE of the Carolinas and then then coming back WSW to Jacksonville on 10/23. That’s now an extreme outlier pending that the 12Z Euro shows.

No CMC has had any storm close enough to the E coast to have much, if any, effect on the E coast. The Euro has had 2 with it (12Z yest and 0Z today) with interestingly all of the shorter runs in between (6Z/18Z), which go out far enough to tell, having no E coast storm. OTOH, the UKMET’s last 3 full runs have had it and the newest (6Z) suggests it would also have it based on the last map (hour 66). The first Icon with it any effect was yesterday’s 12Z with the 18Z at least a close call. The 0Z was by far the most ominous with it coming back W at the end. It also had it but then the 6Z had it further offshore though it’s hard to tell if it would have come back close enough to have much effect in the NE. I’m guessing no. It appears based on hour 162 that the 12Z Icon won’t have much effect on even the OB. Edit: confirmed

Or it could be both depending on one’s location, of course. The NC Outer Banks could have large effects with most of the rest of the SE being beautiful.

And we can add the 0Z Euro, too, with a full-blown very intense storm (12Z Euro also had it)!

It’s also on the 0Z UKMET, the 3rd run in a row with this one a little stronger with a min of 1003 mb/max of 52 knots/60 mph. It forms off of S SC and then moves N into NC OB area followed by a move E offshore and then a S drift as it weakens: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 32.4N 76.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 18.10.2026 72 32.4N 76.0W 1010 42 1200UTC 18.10.2026 84 34.0N 75.1W 1008 48 0000UTC 19.10.2026 96 32.5N 75.9W 1003 52 1200UTC 19.10.2026 108 34.2N 75.2W 1005 45 0000UTC 20.10.2026 120 36.2N 75.6W 1004 40 1200UTC 20.10.2026 132 36.6N 74.7W 1006 35 0000UTC 21.10.2026 144 36.4N 73.1W 1007 33 1200UTC 21.10.2026 156 35.0N 72.7W 1009 34 0000UTC 22.10.2026 168 32.7N 73.4W 1012 35

I’m assuming this is tropical on the 0Z Icon: holy cow!

John, thanks. Are you referring to the late Sept of ‘26 nor’easter? If so, I was just counting ones in October though I realize it was within a week of Oct and thus very likely largely connected to the very strong Nino. But I didn’t check Sept for any of those 9 analogs. So, if we count that one, does that reduce the chance for a 2nd E coast storm later this month? I never found two really notable E coast storms for any of the 9 analog years in Oct, itself. I suspect that may be more than just randomness. Maybe one strong E coast storm late Sept/Oct is enough to sort of calm down the atmosphere and prevent a 2nd one? What do you think? If so and if we count the late Sep nor’easter, maybe that would reduce the chance for another for the rest of Oct?

Based on 100% of the 9 very strong Nino analogs back to 1877-8 having a near E coast (SE and/or NE) storm of some kind in October, I’m leaning to cyclogenesis next week close enough to affect parts of the E coast. This could be a nor’easter, a TC, or hybrid. These include -early Oct 2015 highly unusual complex setup associated with a combo of well offshore Joaquin and a SE US ET upper low/stationary front resulting in devastating SC flooding rain -late Oct 1991 “Perfect Storm” hybrid in NE -late Oct 1982 strong nor’easter centered on mid-Atlantic that lead to a very rare Oct combo of a long duration of continuous rain, strong winds, and cold (40s) -early Oct 1972 very strong nor’easter that was worst Hatteras to NYC (both ~4”+ rain) -early Oct 1957 strong nor’easter hit Hatteras/lower mid-Atlantic hardest ————— Edit: @Typhoon TipI think was pointing out that the late Sep ‘26 nor’easter may have been close enough to Oct to count as the ‘26 version. I’m waiting for him to clarify. But if so, I do wonder if that reduces the chance for one next week since I found only one in Oct for each of the 9 years. Hmmm. Any thoughts anyone?

The 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro AIFS, and Icon all have a storm of some sort have a storm off the E coast next week. I’m noting this because there’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one: -1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71” of rain. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS: -1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12: -1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62” of rain: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf -1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” on rain at CHS: -1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras): https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf -1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” of rain Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall the unusual combo of continuous rain, wind, and cold: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf -1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69” of rain): 1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4” of rain): https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf 2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html —————— So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

There’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one: -1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71” of rain. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS: -1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12: -1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62” of rain: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf -1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” on rain at CHS: -1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras): https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf -1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” of rain Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall the unusual combo of continuous rain, wind, and cold: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf 1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69” of rain): 1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4” of rain): https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf 2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

It is, indeed, looking dry in the SE the next ~2 weeks. The Euro Weeklies have been showing this for a number of runs. However, those same EW for 6 straight runs have also been showing the likely El Niño induced polar opposite (wetter than normal) for every one of the subsequent 4 weeks ending the Sun of Thanksgiving Week (as far out as they currently go): Dry 10/19-25: Mainly slightly wet 10/26-11/1: Slightly wet 11/2-8: Wet 11/9-15: Slightly wet 11/16-22:

Thanks, Anthony. One thing I’ll say is that there’s nothing unusual about having a W QBO during a very strong El Niño as: -1957, 1982, and 2015 had it -1965, 1972, 1991, and 1997 didn’t

GEFS also sees this: The most similar El Niño Octobers to this forecast of a solid -NAO in late Oct after a mainly +NAO in early to mid Oct are 1976 and 1963 with 2002 the next most similar. @Stormchaserchuck1

Thanks. I didn’t include 72 and 97 because they were during a different part of the QBO cycle. 72: at the end of a negative phase (far different) 97: start of a new negative phase ( not nearly as far off as 72 but still off enough to already go <0 in Jan and I’m expecting +8 through Feb. All of the other 5 analogs were +QBO through Feb.)

It’s not a matter of “if” because it’s a certainty. Also that favors E US warmth in December as @snowman19has emphasized. Dec of 2015, 2006, 1987, 1982, and 1957 were all mild in the E US (other than 1957 being NN in the SE).

Thanks! I just got on my PC and can see the updating table. For whatever reason, when I do it on my phone, it requires a download of the data. I don’t get why they can’t have it more accessible like for the PSL link. Anyway, this NOAA 30 mb update for Mar 26+ is following the general pattern of the ATMOS Hub values along with the sometimes slightly faster transition to positive phase in addition to sig. higher amp on both ends as I mentioned. So this essentially confirms what ATMOS Hub showed us. Therefore due to the easier access to the ATMOS Hub data on my cell, I’m probably going to use ATMOS Hub at least as often as NOAA’s now harder to see on cellphone data. Plus I like ATMOS’ excellent graphic showing the entire atmosphere and how it progresses with the QBO cycle possibly even during mid month thus giving us a little bit of heads up that the monthly tables don’t show: CPC vs ATMOS (rounded) Mar -17 vs -31 Apr -9 vs -7 May -2 vs +6 June +4 vs +8 July +9 vs +13 Aug +11 vs +12 Sep +13 vs +18

Thanks 1. It being the driest time of year means it isn’t all that unusual. 2. Oct is typically too early for the Nino STJ moisture as that usually doesn’t get going til close to Nov or often not til Nov, itself. That’s what the Euro Weeklies are suggesting.

Where was the second one? How strong was the one that hit Fayetteville?

EF2 from feederband, which was just ahead of a cold front, from remnants of Isaias in Duplin County, NC yesterday (10/11/26)!

Surveys done for 4 GA/SC Saturday 10/10/26 tornadoes produced by a super-cell thunderstorm: 3 EF-1 and 1 EF-0 -Fortunately no deaths or injuries -2 of 4 caused structural and/or automobile damage -All 4 caused notable tree damage https://www.weather.gov/chs/Tornadoes-October2026

EF2 from feederband, which was just ahead of a cold front, from remnants of Isaias in Duplin County, NC yesterday (10/11/26)!

Surveys done for 4 GA/SC Saturday 10/10/26 tornadoes directly related to the influence of post-tropical Isaias: 3 EF-1 and 1 EF-0 -Fortunately no deaths or injuries -2 of 4 caused structural and/or automobile damage -All 4 caused notable tree damage https://www.weather.gov/chs/Tornadoes-October2026