GaWx

Oops, I forgot to break down by months. I think Dec/Feb will have the best chance to have the warmest/coldest anomalies amomg DJF, which is consistent with strong Nino analogs and model consensus for the E US. In the SE when we’ve had 1-2 big winter storms, they’ve tended to be mainly between the 2nd half of Jan and March. A major exception was the SE major winter storm of early Dec of 1896! So, of course, one never knows. @Newman

I agree he’s a major blowhard and not a nice person, and he’s been dead wrong on several things (including claiming “Heat Dome” is a recent term used primarily by alarmists and first claiming this disaster was caused by an earthquake). However, I don’t think it’s a waste of time to post his stuff as especially Don and I have done the last few months. Because he’s been widely read/quoted in recent months, he often shows data to support his posts (whether misleading or not), and is smart/well spoken/pretty clear communicator, I think his posts should be addressed here whether in disagreement or not. A person like him who many here including myself have strongly disagreed with at least some of the time is the perfect person to bring into the forum to make for robust discussion and the debating of differing viewpoints. To avoid people with very different views tends to make forums like this and others closer to an echo chamber. The most interesting forums aren’t afraid to consider major differences of opinion and debate them. Also, it’s good to be open-minded as I feel I am on most topics. On this topic, I’m very open-minded.

Hello Newman, For this winter, I’m thinking (none of this should be surprising based on super Nino analogs/models): -above normal precip (up to 3” above) within a couple hundred miles of the NE coast with highest anomalies near the coast and closer to normal well inland -above to MA normal precip SE with the largest anomalies in the deep SE/FL, where 4-8” will be common -anomalies tending to get colder as one goes further SE -New England/NE US likely to average 3-5F warmer than normal with warmest in N New England -Mid-Atlantic will likely average ~1-3F warmer than normal with closest to normal near coast -SE likely averaging near normal to slightly colder than normal with coldest anomalies deep SE/FL -Regarding wintry precip overall, the SE tends to do best anomalywise in moderate or stronger El Niño winters. But even so, much of the SE, especially deep, is unforecastable since it takes only 1-2 winter storms (often just 1) to make it a very wintry winter there. But that chance tends to be best with El Niño winters vs other winters averaged out. Strong+ Nino winters have tended to have the best chance though moderate may be close.

Indeed, it has become more E based despite a flat Nino 3.4 recently since Nino 3 has warmed some while Nino 4 has cooled some netting out to an essentially flat period for Nino 3.4.

Thanks, Charlie. Interesting. The contradiction of viewpoints/supporting data and info as well as the complexities involved in this terrible disaster are why I said that most of what Martz put in that post is at least worthy of discussion/debate. I think that the odds of CC being at least a little involved are high. I feel that the main debate is whether CC was a major factor or just a minor factor. I agree that it’s too early to conclude anything and there likely will be continued disagreements in upcoming releases. We may never know the exact answer.

Nino 1+2 is very warm, but Adam’s post: -is ignoring the effect of GW on skewing Nino 1+2 upward in 2026 vs 1997. The highest relative weekly in 1997 was +4.1 (set twice). Relative values for Nino 1+2 are currently 0.5 or more cooler than the non-relatives. NOAA and other orgs have recently been using relative values as official because of the skewing caused by GW. -He’s looking at yesterday’s daily rather than at a weekly average, which is what the historical data is based on. -These OISST charts have recently been warmer than the released NOAA weeklies as has been noted in many posts since July. -Let’s see what this Monday shows for relative Nino 1+2 averaged over this week. I doubt it will reach +4.1, but we’ll see. I’m guessing high 3s.

I’m not aware of a relative PDO. Like the SOI and IOD, I don’t think relative is needed for these 3 indices because all 3 are based on differences between different areas that I assume largely cancel out any effect from GW. I do see why there are now two NOAA PDOs: yours is based on ERSST version 5 whereas mine is based on ERSST version 6, the newest version. How about that for adding to confusion? With 6 being the newest ERSST, I assume that it is the most official for NOAA PDO now.

That says August. The August forecast isn’t new. The Sept 1st forecast is the new one we’re waiting for. The monthly Euro forecasts are normally released on the 5th of the month.

The NOAA August PDO came in at -1.11 vs July’s -1.35. This is the 2nd month in a row for which the NOAA monthly actually came in less negative than what the WCS dailies suggested (see image below). That is even more the case with August, for which the WCS averaged slightly lower than -1.5. This -1.11 compares to the significantly stronger -PDO of Aug of 2023 of -2.02: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

Thanks for your reply, John. I’m asking anyone but tagged Don only because he’s been about the most involved with me in the discussion about the Nepal disaster and thus wanted to make sure he sees this. Martz appears to be correct in saying that there aren’t going to be many days that go >0C based on my just now seeing what’s down below that I’m quoting from the link below. If ~+1C really is the warmest at 5,364 m or 17.6K feet, is there going to be significant melting way up that high? https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-highest-and-lowest-temperatures-ever-recorded-at-Mt-Everest-base-camp “Highest and lowest recorded temperatures at Everest Base Camp (EBC) depend on which camp and which dataset, but reliable observations come from automatic weather stations (AWS) installed at the South Base Camp (Nepal side, ~5,364 m) and other nearby high-altitude stations. Summary of best-available values (observations and published AWS records, through May 2024): Highest recorded air temperature South (Nepal) Base Camp AWS: about −1.0 °C to +1.0 °C on the warmest days in late spring/early summer (typically May). Many published station summaries and expedition logs report peak values near 0 °C; a commonly cited peak is ~+0.5 °C. Slightly warmer spot measurements in sunlight or lower-elevation tent sites can exceed +1 °C briefly, but sustained, instrumented air-temperature peaks at the official South Base Camp are around 0 °C to +1 °C.”

Yes, the cocky Chris Martz was wrong with his initial thought that this disaster was earthquake induced. But I think most of this from him yesterday is at least worthy of discussion/debate. Opinions? Climate alarmists refuse to let go of their narrative about Nepal despite the load of evidence against their claims. The avalanche (and by extension, flood) in Nepal last week was triggered by the collapse of bedrock beneath the Yala Glacier, not the glacier partially collapsing itself. Global warming doesn’t cause bedrock to buckle. It was likely geological in origin caused by seismic activity in recent years and months causing fractures in the rock. The Himalaya are highly active due to plate tectonics moving India into the Asian continent. And the “melting permafrost” argument doesn’t hold much water either because temperatures have generally been below freezing, even during summer, where the glacier sits ~17,000 feet (5,200 meters) up. You aren’t going to see a lot of days get above 0°C (32°F). Not every environmental disaster that happens needs to be blamed on humans. Nature itself is more than capable of causing these types of events. It’s time to get rid of the mentality that mankind is the cause of every bad thing that happens. @donsutherland1

The next Euro forecast going into winter won’t be released until Saturday.

The summer of 2026 ended up with the 2nd strongest summer -SOI back to 1876! Here are the 16 strongest -SOI summers. Note that while 1882 is way out of place with it being cold neutral, the rest are El Niños (with all but 1914 being moderate or stronger for their respective (later) peaks): 1896 (-22) strong 2026 (-21) progged super 1982 (-19) super 1882 (-18) cold neutral 1905 (-18) moderate 1997 (-17) super 1941 (-17) moderate 1940 (-16) strong 1987 (-16) moderate 2015 (-14) super 1965 (-14) super 1994 (-14) moderate 1914 (-14) weak 1977 (-14) moderate 1888 (-13) super 1972 (-12) super

This is the first time I recall seeing the white shading, which is warmer than a +5C anomaly, on the TAO surface maps. It is within the E section, in a narrow corridor just S of the equator and E of 110W.

Is there any chance that Edouard could be retired due to heavy rains, which caused Allison to be retired?

To add to the above, here are Nino 3 and Nino 4 (note that these aren’t relative, but that’s ok since my point is to show the slopes): Nino 3: still a slow rise through Aug instead of nearly flat like 3.4: Nino 4: had been falling through Aug 17th though a bumpy net slow rise since:

The new relative OISST (not ERSST) has just been released and the change from July jibes well for Nino 3.4 with the slope of the graphs we’ve been following (though as I’ve also been saying the weeklies/last 2 months are notably cooler than what the cyclonicwx graphs have been suggesting). 2026 7 2.84 1.73 0.34 1.38 2026 8 3.35 2.52 0.11 1.78 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_mthsst9120.txt This 1.78 is a new record high (back to 1981) for August Nino 3.4 as it barely beats the 1.74 of 1997. Here are the warmest Augusts since 1981: 2026 1.78 1997 1.74 2015 1.30 1987 1.24 1982 1.19 1991 0.82 2002 0.80 1994 0.72 2004 0.71 2023 0.63 Note that Nino 3 rose twice as much and Nino 4 fell 0.23! Also, Nino 1+2 rose the 2nd most at 0.51. All of this indicates that this Nino has been becoming increasingly E based and that the W portion of Nino 3.4 is what is holding it back vs what model projections had been. Also, note that Nino 3.4 rose only 0.4C from the July avg to the Aug avg. I say “only” because several models were suggesting (as I’ve posted about several times) a record rapid rise for 3.4 of ~1C. It remains to be seen what the rise was per ERSST, but it’s clear that August didn’t warm nearly as much in 3.4 as model consensus had suggested, which has caused some at least near-term cooling of progs in some models’ recent runs. Here’s the latest OISST relative 3.4 chart through Sept 1st: STILL no sign of resumption of warming with it practically flat the last 31 days! The CDAS (not relative) agrees with the continuing flatness:

OHC monthly rose to a new record high that last month had set (note these aren’t adjusted for GW in a “relative” sense, but they’re still very impressive): 2025 11 -0.02 -0.33 -0.46 2025 12 0.26 0.01 -0.03 2026 1 0.64 0.45 0.49 2026 2 1.08 1.02 1.15 2026 3 1.38 1.39 1.36 2026 4 1.85 2.07 2.24 2026 5 1.67 1.97 1.99 2026 6 1.79 2.14 2.26 2026 7 2.03 2.50 2.96 2026 8 2.19 2.75 3.20 The following image is for the same longitudes as that for the 3rd column and it jibes fairly well: Prior to 2026, this had been the record high for the last 2 columns: 1997 10 1.35 2.05 2.56

This slowness of decay seems to happen fairly often in this region per my memory.

Have you ever been there? I was hiking on mainly level trails in the Maroon Bells valley at 11.5-11.7K. I do t do anything high risk, which would include skiing or snowboarding if I were to ever be there in winter. However, I will note that a good portion of the scenic loop (just beyond the lake) was quite rocky with a few areas of relative steepness. And I’m not at all an experienced hiker with trails like this. Thus I needed to walk very slowly in this portion and watch every single step I took to make sure I didn’t slip, slide on lose rock, or lose my balance. Thank goodness I had a ski pole that I would stick into the ground to use as a stabilizing hiking stick. Otherwise I could have easily fallen and been injured. A couple of times I played it extra safe by sitting down on my behind and sliding lol.

0Z UKMET has Edouard’s little sis like the 12Z run sort of had with its 1010 non-TC low, but is notably stronger with it as it has it as a TD: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 28.8N 95.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.09.2026 156 29.5N 96.9W 1003 29 0000UTC 09.09.2026 168 31.1N 99.1W 1007 21

Even when it is using the cooler 1981-2010 instead of the warmer 1991-2020 for climo?

Thanks, Don. Wow, this isn’t even close to the cold JB showed though it was unlabeled. Is he by chance using normals from the Eocene epoch?

Fortunately, I stuck to relatively safe lower elevations near the lake.

I ended up with an impressive ~8.85” of rain in August.