GaWx

Anthony, I wouldn’t say that because the DJF AO was the most negative since 2020-1 with ~-1 averaged out.

Hey Don, Phoenix had a high of 100 today, the 8th day in a row of 100+! Before 2026, there had been only one March day of 100+ and that was right at 100 on March 26th! Holy cow!

Despite what JB is thinking (cold mid to late April), the EWs still don’t show anything of the sort.

Per JB, the reason the 2023-4 El Niño was so mild in much of the U.S. is that there weren’t the typical cold SST anomalies around Australia that often exist during El Niño as it instead was warm there. He’s expecting colder anomalies around Australia this time. Remember how the model consensus had at H5 the beautiful E US and Aleutian troughs? Opinions?

JB in recent days finally gave up on a cold E US overall 3/15-4/15. So, he’s admitting defeat regarding his forecast for an overall chilly March in the E US. He got the first week of this period right, regardless, which included a cold St. Patrick’s Day. But he’s given up on an overall cold Holy Week/Easter. However, he’s now saying, “I think there’s going to be a lot of cold air develop in April across the United States.” He’s basing this partially on the prospect of MJO in phases 2-3, which he said tend to be cold in April. (I haven’t done my own research on that.) He’s also basing it on the prospects for a -NAO and -EPO as well as a “crash” of the SOI after the TCs are done. So, he’s expecting “quite the trough” mid to late April in the E US.

Thanks, Don! This tells me that Yellowknife won’t be as cold this month as it was in March of 1964. Unlike 2026, that month was post El Nino, opposite of 2026. That month was also quite cold further N, N of 80N (<-30C): Compare that to the current March so far, which is ~-20C or >10C warmer!!

In addition to Fairbanks, cities such as Anchorage and Yellowknife, NW Territories as well as the area in between and surrounding have a chance to have their all time record coldest Marches. That’s ~2,000 miles long and ~400 miles wide area or ~800K square miles, which is ~18% of the combined square miles in Canada and Alaska or ~25% of the size of the lower 48! Does anyone have a link to monthly records for Canadian cities and more specifically Yellowknife? Anyone have a link to maps showing historic temperature anomalies by month for Canada like we have for the US? Yellowknife in March of 2026: Mean temp March 1-23: -26C Normal for entire month: -16C March 2026 so far: https://www.predictwind.com/weather/canada/northwest-territories/yellowknife/march Normals in C: https://weatherspark.com/y/2362/Average-Weather-in-Yellowknife-Northwest-Territories-Canada-Year-Round

Thanks, Don. Now it makes sense if the words “ranking of” are added before # of days of 80+. @chubbs

Hey Chuck, Looking at Mar 1-23 actuals and the NWS forecast for the next 7 days, Fairbanks has a decent shot at its coldest March on record with records going back to 1906! The current coldest mean is -6.6F (1959). The MTD mean through 3/23 is ~-13! So, even with the next week forecasted to average near +8F, the MTD may not get up to -6.6F! https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afg

Hey Charlie, I looked and looked at this and still can’t see how this doesn’t have errors. What am I missing? Am I having a brain fart? Is this the # of days within March 1-22, 2026, with highs of 80+? I came back and looked again to see if my brain had been missing something. I still don’t see how a good portion of the #s on the map aren’t off. Is this mislabeled?

Phoenix though very slightly cooler still hit 100 today!

Thanks for posting these. I’ve seen similar charts showing lowered global wx related disaster costs in more recent years. Does anyone know the main reasons? Despite these drops (assuming these charts are accurate and not deceptive/being presented in proper context, which may very well be the case), are they projected to continue dropping as we continue to warm? That’s key to know.

It, of course, still remains to be seen whether there will actually be a super Nino. The last one was in reality 2015-6 as 2023-4 peaked at only borderline moderate/strong per RONI, which is now the official way of measuring. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI. Most model progs are only of ONI.

I’m roughly projecting that March 2026 at Phoenix will end up 12-13 F above normal. The current warmest of any month of the year is only 10-11 F AN. Side note: the NAO for this month is likely going to end up the most positive of any month since 1950! Does a +NAO in March favor a warm SW US?

After the very pleasant chill/low dew points of the prior few days, the last 2 days were back to summer with highs of 87 at KSAV.

I agree about the longevity of the current SW heat being very notable. Related to that, Phoenix has had a high today of at least 102 meaning 5 days in a row of 102+ after not having a single high >100 on record! But regarding longevity, doesn’t that bring the very long lasting 1930s dust bowl heat into the conversation?

The March ‘26 NAO is easily headed to a record high for March (back to 1950). The current record is +1.85 (1989). Based on actual dailies March 1-22 and GEFS progs for March 23-31, I believe that the range of possibilities is +2.4 to +3.4. Remember to multiply the dailies by 2 to estimate the monthlies. The highest of any month is Nov of 1992’s +2.63. That is likely to be exceeded (75% chance as of now). Monthly NAO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Thanks, Anthony. I hope they really timber! But the “timber” of the AO and NAO means are still just to neutral. The means were timbering to actual negatives starting around now that were shown 8 days ago per the images below vs today’s bringing them down to just neutral and not til early April: they’re verifying now WAY more + than those timbering progs to negative. Thus they get an easy F grade:

I just realized Chris Martz is a meteorologist, which you must know. I had assumed he wasn’t. Now I’m more surprised he made those errors about 1879! A pro met doing that? Shouldn’t he have known better? He’s not an AGW denier, however, per the following link. Instead he seems to be in the category of non-alarmist AGW believer. His beef doesn’t seem to be with AGW, itself, but instead it seems to be with AGW alarmists. @donsutherland1is my assessment correct in your opinion? Quoted from link below: do you think he’s being sincere here? Is it possible he’s possibly making a fact based case? The magnitude of warming and the rate at which it occurs make all the difference in whether global warming is cause for alarm that requires economic decarbonization and/or large-scale interventions like SRM, or is largely unimportant in terms of environment and public health. Just how much warming will occur is dependent on “equilibrium climate sensitivity” (ECS), which is the amount of warming that results from doubling atmospheric CO2 levels plus any feedbacks that amplify or dampen the slight increase in temperature caused directly by CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs). • If ECS is ≥3°C, then the climate system is highly sensitive to GHGs, and climate warming is therefore a concern. • If ECS is <3°C, then the climate system is largely insensitive to GHGs, and warming impacts are exaggerated. This seems to be the likely case given that we have not seen increases in most types of extreme events, climate models overestimate warming (U.S. DOE CWG, 2025)[30] and the state of human welfare has never been better than it is today by nearly every measurable metric. https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Martz-Written-Testimony.pdf

So, would he have seen your corrections regarding the current heatwave? If so, does that mean he no longer could be ignorant of the facts about it? Could he instead be outrightly lying and intentionally trying to deceive?

Thank you, Don. I corrected my mentions of SE winds to the correct SW winds. I agree with you on all of this. Have you by chance replied to Chris Martz? I can’t tell because I’m not a registered X user. In case you haven’t seen these followup tweets, here are two he did: and he then posted this saying his posting of “facts” “makes people angry”:

Thanks, Don. Fantastic post! I’ll just add that, as I assume you realize, that LA and SD did actually both hit 99 on 3/29/1879 and that those remain their hottest on record in all of March. The 100 of 3/29/1879 remained at least tied for the hottest in all of March in Yuma til it hit 102 in 2004. And the current heatwave obliterated these as you know with 109 for the hottest (3/20/2026). So, I agree that the tweeter is taking what was largely a localized historic heat event for S CA and making it seem as if it were in a much larger region and more historic in the SW US overall than the current one. Aside: Meteorology related Q: I wonder why this official map shows onshore (SW) winds in LA and a temp. of 97 at 1:35PM PST on 3/29/1879? The 97 is consistent with the 99 high, but the SW winds aren’t. Anyone know? My guess is that the winds had been offshore til just before 1:35PM and that the 99 high occurred a little before 1:35PM. If so, the temps were just starting to fall with the SW winds. Note that SD, also shown with SW winds then, had already fallen way down to 79 then. Thus, I’m guessing their winds shifted sooner: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1879/18790329.pdf *Edited for correction: I meant SW winds, not SE winds. Brain fart!

Today was the 3rd day in a row of Phoenix hitting 105, which not only obliterates another daily record but also again ties with the hottest on record in April. The day prior to the 105 string was 102. Prior to this string, the hottest on record in all of March was only 100, set on March 26th in 1988. More 100+ days are quite possible next week! Crazy!

Interesting because 2015 and 1997 had similar strong 7/8 in March to 23. OTOH, the strong to super Ninos of 1982 and 1991 didn’t while the weak 2014 did: 2014 had strong 7/8 but ended up very weak Nino: