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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    Oops. So, that’s why most others’ maxes are significantly warmer than mine. I inadvertently in my mind entered a different max temps contest than most. One other entrant @RodneyShas similarly lower maxes to mine. I wonder if he also thought it was just for June. And I saw people before me putting “June” on their entry, which further made me think the maxes also were for just June. If there’s any way you can remove my maxes picks, please do so. Otherwise, it’s ok. Maybe I’ll get lucky.
  2. GaWx
    Does 30C remain a “magic number” with a warming globe? Or does the “magic #” keep warming as the globe warms? What is the science behind a 30C “magic #”?
  3. GaWx
    The first CFS ens AAM run in 5.5 days was just released at the site I follow and it’s a doozy overall with a mean way up at ~+2.8 in just 12 days (July 7th), which is the earliest in the forecast period being that high of any run I’ve ever saved going back to late 2023! (See 2nd image below.) The prior highest mean for day 12 was ~+2.25 on the 5/21/26 12Z run, which verified at ~+1.8 (not bad). If it were to actually verify at +2.8, that would be only a little lower than the ~+3.2 record for that date set in 2015 per this chart from an earlier Tweet I just read: Regarding the full run, this is the highest mean of any I’ve saved/seen with it +2.8+ from day 12 through day 33 (July 28th), the end of the run: I’ll reiterate though that these tend to run too high, especially late in the runs, when this strong. For example, the 5/25 0Z run (see below) had a mean for today of ~+3 vs the actual of ~0, which is the dip that @bluewave alluded to. Thus, caution is still advised. But with it being way up at +2.8 as early as fcast day 12, it may actually verify pretty closely like the 5/21/26 12Z run at day 12 did (+1.8 vs +2.25 wasn’t too far off):
  4. GaWx
    I’d be quite surprised if KATL has a high on 7/4 of 103 and 104 on 7/5 as this (6Z) gfs run shows because of recent good rains there and the tendency for the GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro to be too hot for summer highs in much of the SE outside of RDU. An important variable on how hot it will get will be the amount of rainfall there between now and then. Regardless, heat indices look to be awful either way.
  5. GaWx
    The lagging for the last 2 days has been terrible at AmericanWx!
  6. GaWx
    Every El Niño is different of course. But based on past very strong El Ninos, the firehose of ST moisture for much of the SE doesn’t usually fully turn on until Nov or after the main part of the ATL tropical season is over.
  7. GaWx
    Does/will CC lead to more net harm or more net benefit? That depends on whom you ask as there are many different perspectives as well as biases. For example, AGW alarmists see only the bad effects and believe the worst case scenarios. OTOH, AGW deniers like Joe Bastardi don’t even acknowledge AGW! I don’t think it’s black and white. For example, I as a near coastal resident put more emphasis on past and progged sea rises as well as increased TC related rainfall/peak wind potential than many far from the coast since I see the direct effects close-up. The frequency of significant to major coastal flooding events nearby has increased greatly. This is both with tropical cyclones and without them including King tides on sunny days. Charleston, SC, is a great example of this. I see soooo many coastal flood advisories for there nowadays, including a large # on sunny days! It wasn’t anything like that in the past. However, I also acknowledge that a portion of this there and at places like Louisiana and even Manhattan is caused by sinking land. As a near coastal resident, I also have been seeing up close higher avg SSTs and accompanying higher dewpoints/heat indices making summers worse.
  8. GaWx
    Is anyone else intermittently seeing “bad gateway” error code 502 messages and sometimes having trouble with long delays in reading and posting with it saying the problem is with the host, AmericanWx BB? It’s the worst I can recall here! I’m not seeing this with any other sites.
  9. GaWx
    The code 502 errors are really bad today with big slowdowns here! OHC climbing back and may soon reach April 20th highs for 2026:
  10. GaWx
    Thanks for doing this. Are you also asking for max July temps like you did for June?
  11. GaWx
    Although US heat related deaths are rising and should continue to rise from GW, it’s true that far more people have died from cold than from heat (>10:1) and thus GW should in theory result in a net of fewer cold/heat related deaths there for a good while into the future. And this isn’t even taking into account any increases in food supply attributed to longer growing seasons and increased CO2 fertilization effect. So, CC clearly has some benefits regardless of the often emphasized harms that include rising sea levels, increased extreme flooding incidences, and more powerful tropical cyclone peaks/heavier rainfall from warmer temps holding more moisture and slower moving (on avg) TCs: Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Burden in the US From 2000 to 2020 The Yale University Institutional Review Board approved this case series Findings This case series of 54 223 429 deceased individuals found that both low and high temperatures were significantly associated with mortality burden, with low temperatures associated with more mean annual deaths (45 992) than high temperatures (3414). However, the burden from high temperatures increased by 53% from the 2000-2009 to 2010-2020 study periods. The annual mortality count attributable to low temperatures increased by 7% between the 2000-2009 and 2010-2020 study periods, from 44 278 to 47 551 annual deaths. However, the annual mortality count attributable to high temperatures increased by 53%, from 2670 to 4091 annual deaths. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2841063
  12. GaWx
    1. The Euro doesn’t peak before Dec, with a record RONI monthly of +3.1 in Dec vs current monthly record of +2.7 (1982): 2. But the CFS peaks earlier (in Nov) also way up at record levels for RONI of +3.2C. But then afterward, the CFS has by far the fastest cooling on record (I’m taking with a grain, especially because it’s the unreliable CFS) with it plunging to only +2.0 in Jan and +1.5 in Feb: 3. Due to a tendency for models to be a bit too warm with forecasts this far out, it wouldn’t surprise me if the actual RONI monthlies peak in the high +2s instead of low +3s. However, with the record warmest RONI month of only +2.7, a record warmest RONI is likely as of now.
  13. GaWx
    If this were to keep up, the WCS daily PDO would go positive at least for a short period starting by ~this weekend! It’s now up to -0.17 vs -1.40 on May 27th: The last times this was + were ~5 days in March-April of 2025!
  14. GaWx
    Is anyone else intermittently seeing “bad gateway” error code 502 messages and sometimes having trouble with long delays in reading and posting with it saying the problem is with the host, AmericanWx BB? I’m not seeing this with any other sites.
  15. GaWx
    The post above from Chris and the one below from Adam are in conflict with Chris’ suggesting more Nina-like (-AAM) and Adam’s stating +GLAAM off the charts! Why are these 2 saying opposites about upcoming AAM?
  16. GaWx
    Thanks, Chris. Related to the PDO, I saw this quote today: “Waters around Japan have been cooling quite a bit lately while warming north/northeast of Hawaii.”
  17. GaWx
    The fairly reliable S stream super-Nino fire hose pattern doesn’t typically start til after the end of the active part of the tropical season, i.e. not til November usually.
  18. GaWx
    The WCS daily PDO has increased from -1.4 on May 27th (per the WCS tweet being quoted) to -0.3 on June 22nd! Folks need to keep in mind that these can fluctuate a good bit from week to week. Regardless, this 1.1 rise is notable and it did occur during a significant strengthening of El Niño:
  19. GaWx
    Indeed, this latest CFS mean has about the strongest 3.4 yet whether relative or not: Relative now peaks at +3.0C in BOTH SON and OND for the first time that I’ve seen: Of the ones I’ve saved, the prior highest CFS was this one from June 1st. It was also +3.0C in OND but was only +2.9C in SON:
  20. GaWx
    The Apr-June of ‘26 MJO has been about the most left-sided of any Apr-June since records started in 1975: 2026: Closest years were: 2021: 1991:
  21. GaWx
    Interestingly, since that WCS tweet was made on 5/28/26 showing the then latest WCS PDO (5/27/26) down at -1.40, then near a 6 month low, the WCS PDO has risen nearly 1 in just 25 days while El Niño has gotten much stronger to -0.48:
  22. GaWx
    My progs were right this time: 1+2………3…….3.4…….4 29APR2026 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 06MAY2026 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 03JUN2026 2.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 17JUN2026 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  23. GaWx
    The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall: This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week:
  24. GaWx
    The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues to have as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall: This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week:
  25. GaWx
    Thanks, Ray. Based on model consensus and even after reducing the avg prog as a BC being that June model run avg has tended to verify too warm, especially Euro, I’m thinking RONI/ONI peaks will likely be at the higher end of your range or warmer. Models are leaning toward an OND peak.
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