GaWx

I just counted the # of days in Jans 1975-89 by MJO phase: there are stark differences vs Jans 2011-25 as was suspected:# of days per phase Jans 1975-89 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase1: 39 (8%)2: 67 (14%)3: 67 (14%)4: 57 (12%)5: 46 (10%)6: 51 (11%)7: 63 (14%)8: 75 (16%)Compare to this that I posted yesterday:# of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase1: 17 (only 4%)2: 26 (only 6%)3: 67 (14%)4: 51 (11%)5: 57 (12%)6: 101 (a whopping 22%)7: 104 (a whopping 22%)8: 42 (9%)So, what changed the most in Jan when comparing 1975-89 to 2011-25?# of 8-1-2 Jan days dropped sharply# of 6-7 Jan days rose sharplyJan 1975-898-1-2: 39%6-7: 25%Jan 2011-258-1-2: 18%6-7: 44%So for Jans when comparing 2011-25 to 1975-89, the # of 8-1-2 days dropped way down from 181 to only 85 (drop of 96 days) while the # of 6-7 days rose sharply from 114 to 205 (rise of 91 days)! Phase 8 went from having the largest # of days of any phase Jan 1975-89 to having only 40% of the largest # of days of any phase Jan 2011-25! A quite possible explanation is the PDO cycle in conjunction with the strong W Pac warm pool. So, if the mean PDO would go positive, maybe Jan MJO dist. will revert back to 1975-89. Then again, the strong warm pool may be mainly due to CC?? If so, would it be easily reversible with a PDO change? A lot of this would seemingly be hard to answer. @donsutherland1@bluewave@40/70 Benchmark@snowman19

I’m not disputing Eric, but it seems somewhat counterintuitive that the cold E US is still favored in Feb even with a +AO/+NAO. Wx history is so fascinating!

Only +1.50 as per the OND peak: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

Keep in mind that should this be right, the RONI adjustment down from ONI would likely mean that RONI would still be just approaching +1 in Sept.

Don’t forget that we have a bonus of 0.35C or so to play with with the all important RONI currently being 0.35 colder. So, IF this were to reach +1.30 in Sept, the RONI equiv. would be only about +0.95 leaving just over 1C room to spare before reaching super territory on that basis.

The new NMME has an even stronger El Niño for later this year by ~0.2C. The end of the run, Sept of 2026, peaks at ~+1.3C (moderate) and still was warming. So, it was more than likely headed to a strong. It has it centered on 115W:

But they did go colder than the model guidance and they were emphatic about their forecast. They had BN in the E US for the first half of Jan and it’s going to end up solidly AN much of the area. As @donsutherland1alluded to, their business is helped by more clicks. So, from a business standpoint, it may make sense at least in the short term to go cold in winter even if the guidance doesn’t suggest that. But credibility as being objective/accurate will be at risk. Swinging for the fences on the cold often isn’t normally going to work. And they’ll probably never in winter swing for the fences to the warm side, of course. Thus, their forecast misses will almost have to be too cold more often than the other way around. Other social media based wx services are in a similar position.

They’re struggling and need to keep the clicks going.

The comparison of the Euro Weekly temp. anom. maps of a week ago and today for Jan 12-18 is fascinating: Dec 31st run for 1/12-18: La Niñaish sort of look Today’s (Jan 7th) run for 1/12-18: nearly opposite with El Ninoish sort of look!

Per Eric Webb just now, the anticipation is still strong: “This is just insane to see. Absolute monster westerly wind burst in the tropical West Pacific”

Today’s GEFS and EPS MJO forecasts both have a 2+ amplitude (strong) phase 6/7 starting in week 2: -GEFS has 2+ amp phase 6 for Jan 17-21 with a peak at ~2.6 on 1/21 (often strong GEFS forecasted MJOs verify a bit weaker in this region fwiw) -EPS has ~2+ amp phase 6-7 (mainly 7) for Jan 16-21 with a peak at ~2.2 in phase 7 on 1/19 (sometimes EPS forecasted MJOs verify a bit stronger in this region fwiw) - These tell me that the chance for Jan to end up with 20+ days on or inside circle is decreasing. - The frequency of MJO amps of 2+ in DJF has increased substantially on a multi-decadal basis (climate change suspected): # of days MJO 2+ amplitude per DJF 70s-80s: 11 90s-00s: 17.5 10s-20s: 23 So far, 2025-6 has had 4 days of 2+ amp (Dec 1-4) These Jans had a 2+ amp phase 6 or 7: -2024 -2021-18 -2016-3 -2011-8 -2006 -2004 -2002 -1997 -1993-2 -1990-89 -1986 -1979 -1976 Note how much less common phase 6-7 periods with 2+ amp were in Jan during 1975-2001 (only 30% of the Jans) vs 2002-2025 (67%)! —————— Here’s another MJO stat. tidbit: # of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase 1: 17 (only 4%) 2: 26 (only 6%) 3: 67 (14%) 4: 51 (11%) 5: 57 (12%) 6: 101 (a whopping 22%) 7: 104 (a whopping 22%) 8: 42 (9%) So, since 2011, each of Jan phase 6 and 7 days has been more than twice as common as phase 8 days and a whopping FOUR TO FIVE times as frequent as each of Jan phase 1-2 days! @bluewave

These CFS ens AAM forecasts are volatile especially for later in the forecast period. So fwiw, the latest forecast mean is the most bullish yet for a rising AAM starting in ~2 weeks and actually going modestly positive (El Nino-like) in ~3 weeks:

With El Niño favored for next fall/winter, I looked at E US temps during multiyear La Niña Febs that immediately precede El Niño: 1911: cool NE/mild elsewhere 1918: cool NE/mild SE 1972: cool 1976: warm 2009: mild NE/NN SE 2018: warm 2023: warm Feb: SE temps/RDU snow1911: 1 AN/0”1918: 3 AN/T and some ZR1972: 5 BN/1.4” SN/IP1976: 5 AN/T2009: 1 AN/T2018: 7 AN/0”2023: 9 AN/0”Average of these 7 Febs at RDU: 3 AN, 0.2” SN/IPOf the 7:-one was cold-two were NN-four were mild to warm So, these analogs favor the @snowman19mild Feb thinking in the SE. So, if we get another 2/2014 like I think both@40/70 Benchmarkand Eric Webb are more or less favoring (correct me if I’m wrong), I’d be thrilled since these analogs don’t favor it. In the NE, these analogs are mixed with 3 BN and 4 AN. Here’s the avg of the 7 Febs: check out how warm the SE, Midsouth, lower MidAtlantic, and OH valley are:

Chuck, But for the second straight year it will be a borderline weak/moderate Niña based on RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

From Eric Webb, he’s clearly on the 2013-4 and seems excited:

Today I estimated that a significant portion of the E US (at least the area from Chicago to much of the SE) will end up ~5-6 warmer than normal for the first half of Jan. With that, the chance of Jan overall coming in cold is low and warmer than normal overall has a better chance. So, the cold month string will be broken most likely. Plus Dec was mainly NN from the SE to the SL area meaning Dec’s cold didn’t even come close to covering the entire E US.

Here’s a link to the last video from Michael Clark, done on 12/30 in which he was highly confident and even smug: From this 12/30 video, he posted a forecast map for 12/31-1/15 showing most of the E US (Minneapolis to SL to ATL eastward) BN. Instead it is headed toward solidly AN. I project Chicago, ATL, and RDU will end up ~+5 to +6 for 12/31-1/15. He forecasted Chic at -3 to -4 and ATL/RDU at -1 to -2. BAM is headed toward a miss of -6 to -9 for 12/31-1/15 in a good portion of the E US! @donsutherland1

I think it’s BAMwx having been colder than the models and now being forced to backtrack.

Bamwx backtracking today for the medium range:

Thanks, snowman. Yeah, Eric Webb of course knows this and thus isn’t at all saying that a full blown Nino pattern will set in by Feb. But he is as I already posted excited about E US potential in Feb as he’s been saying in recent days that a 2014 type of Feb is becoming increasingly possible. We’ll see but at least he’s laying this out and not being shy. Any guess yet as to the strength of the upcoming El Niño assuming it actually does occur?

1. The good news is that this is very old news as regards the models. 2. In addition, for the SE this for the most part will likely not be nearly as warm as the late Dec torch nor as long. 3. This refers to today through Monday. But in reality the warmth ends with a transition by Sat night.

From Eric Webb this morning: The is one of the most impressive mid-winter collapses of La Nina I’ve ever seen. If you’re still in a Nina, you are definitely not supposed to see westerly wind bursts drive this deep into the Pacific, with or without an MJO event

Per WxBell’s version of the GEFS’ mean PNA, the trend of the last few days for both the length and strength of the midmonth +PNA has been a sharp increase: watch as the midmonth green line above 0 on each of these images gets longer and peaks higher: - 0Z 1/2 run: <1 day >0 (Jan 12th); max amp +0.1 (Jan 12th) - 0Z 1/3 run: 3 days>0 (Jan 11th-13th); max amp +0.5 (Jan 12th) - 0Z 1/4 run: 4.5 days>0 (Jan 10th-14th); max amp +0.7 (Jan 11th) -0Z 1/5 run: 6 days>0 (Jan 9th-15th); max amp +1.2 (Jan 13th) -18Z 1/5 run: 8 days>0 (Jan 9th-17th); max amp +1.7 (Jan 14th) Here are those 5 images in a GIF:

1. I just present what I see, whether something I want or not on whatever I’m presenting. 2. It’s the best we have for long range guidance. Nothing in the long range does great because that’s beyond the models’ abilities. 3. EW is a tool and nothing near a crystal ball. But it often gives a halfway decent idea of what’s to come. Look at what it showed last year on this day, which all verified pretty well:

After the +PNA leaning week of 1/12-18, which gives the SE NN/coldest anomalies of E US, today’s Euro Weeklies continue with the idea of a stronger than avg gradient N to S. The -PNA returns ~1/17 and the week of 1/19-25 has the SE with NN in NC to slightly AN GA and it has moderately BN in New England. The subsequent 3 weeks all warm due to a continued -PNA and warm to NN NE and modestly AN SE though one can see the CADdies in the SE are helped on certain days thus keeping them only barely AN in the means. The Weeklies now go through Feb 15th. So far, they’re showing no sign of a cold Feb anywhere. But hopefully that will drastically change! I sure hope it’s prog of a -PNA 1/17-2/15 is going to be dead wrong!