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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    Besides the MEI, I feel that the SOI (which may be part of the MEI…Is it?) remains a good measure of the phase and strength of ENSO because it is a calculation based on SLP differences between two points thousands of miles apart and thus doesn’t seem to be influenced by CC. In essence a relative SOI is likely not needed. Of course, because it is so volatile and subject to day to day randomness, it’s best looked at in 30+ day averages. Then again, if, say avg. Australian SLPs have been affected by CV differently from how Tahiti SLPs have been affected by CC, then even SOIs would need an adjustment. Other opinions?
  2. GaWx
    The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical tropical cyclone nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.
  3. GaWx
    Yeah, next week looks drier over the upper SE (but not down here in the lower SE) than it has been recently overall. However, the good news is that the current Euro Weeklies don’t have the SE (including your area) in an overall dry pattern when looking out to the 2nd and 3rd week in June: 2nd week in June: NN to slightly AN 3rd week in June: wetter than normal:
  4. GaWx
    You have the PDO only down to -1.18 now? Do you mean current daily? How did you calculate that? I ask because that seems not nearly negative enough if you’re talking current daily.
  5. GaWx
    The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.
  6. GaWx
    Also, keep in mind that a -1.40 WCS daily PDO is generally equivalent to a sub-2 NOAA daily PDO. This differential has been the case since I started following WCS daily PDOs years ago.
  7. GaWx
    Check out this 19 day sub -5 SOI streak along with today’s -33.46 being 2nd most negative (barely missing 1st) so far this year. Note that Darwin’s higher than avg SLP for May has the last 10 days finally joined Tahiti’s lows to contribute. Darwin SLPs look to remain on the high side at least over the next week or so per models: 2026 131 1012.47 1012.15 -9.25 2026 132 1011.99 1012.00 -11.78 2026 133 1010.40 1010.50 -12.47 2026 134 1009.81 1010.30 -15.45 2026 135 1009.15 1010.00 -18.21 2026 136 1008.21 1009.70 -23.11 2026 137 1007.49 1009.55 -27.48 2026 138 1009.98 1009.25 -6.11 2026 139 1011.63 1010.85 -5.73 2026 140 1012.01 1012.45 -15.07 2026 141 1010.85 1013.05 -28.55 2026 142 1012.15 1013.20 -19.74 2026 143 1011.70 1012.55 -18.21 2026 144 1010.19 1012.80 -31.69 2026 145 1011.06 1012.85 -25.41 2026 146 1013.30 1012.45 -5.19 2026 147 1013.80 1013.10 -6.34 2026 148 1012.81 1014.30 -23.11 2026 149 1011.31 1014.15 -33.46
  8. GaWx
    It’s already positive (~+1.7)as per the latest CFSv2 initialization posted above. That was well predicted on that insane 0Z 5/25 run as one can see.
  9. GaWx
    Not surprisingly being that the crazy high 0Z 5/25/26 run was likely the strongest CFSv2 ensemble mean +AAM prog since at least 2023, it has come way down since. As I’ve said a number of times, it’s the CFSv2 long range and thus while worth following and posting, s/b taken with a huge grain. 0Z 5/25/26 run: mean peak ~+3.5 late June! 12Z 5/28/26 run: mean peak way down to only ~+1 in late June: like night and day!
  10. GaWx
    Holy cow!! I just got home fortunately. Before that: Roads flooded, visibility near 0, driving no faster than 30 mph on the highway, flashers blinking….but made it! But something I’ve never seen before happened: water started dripping from between the top of the windshield and the roof! Fortunately I had a small towel to dry most of it up pretty quickly once I got home. After examining from the outside, I could see a portion of the rubber molding around the top of the windshield is sticking up a little. The great news: I got ~1” of rain, my heaviest since May 2nd! The recently redug ditches nearby handled the heavy rain quite well, keeping my street from flooding. I had complained to the city about it flooding in all heavy rains. Sometimes it pays to make phone calls. The radar showed what almost looked like a mini circulation.
  11. GaWx
    Many areas improved as expected. But they did extend the exceptional to more of the SAV area as NorthHills predicted. However, if the forecasts verify well, even this area will improve some there on next week’s map.
  12. GaWx
    Same here once again: This evening has been the ultimate tease with my having to travel ~8 miles west, where I drove into heavy rain from a band of thunderstorms. A little NW of there, there actually was a FF warning! Pt. Wentworth, Pooler, and Bloomingdale, all in NW Chatham county, got very heavy rain with 3-4” in some cases (all in <2 hours)! Even KSAV finally got some rain. I was hopeful that the band would soon push to my house. But as I drove back home, I noticed that the rain stopped, the roads were dry, and the sky no longer was threatening. Then when I got home, I saw that no rain had fallen. And now it looks like the atmosphere has stabilized with radar looking unimpressive. So, unless things change later, this may end up still another dry day at my place. But even if so, I remain hopeful for tomorrow and especially the weekend.
  13. GaWx
    The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week: Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:
  14. GaWx
    The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week: Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:
  15. GaWx
    Another day, another ~trace of rain since midnight. Only ~0.30” of rain here in 3.5 weeks! I kid you not. This area and nearby has been about the driest in the entire SE over that period (since May 3rd). Even KSAV has had only 0.25” May 3rd-26th! That’s the driest there for that period since 2011. But alas, I’m still looking forward to a much wetter pattern locally. In addition to chances Wed/Thu, Fri-Tue is looking to be quite wet. So, I remain optimistic. Edit: Downtown CHS has also been very dry for the same period with a mere 0.17”! Like for here, the sea breeze has been keeping most of the shower activity inland for this week so far.
  16. GaWx
    What a sloppy Tweet by Leon Simons! He said: “The Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) forecast mean is now touching 3.5°C!” No, it isn’t. ONI is, not RONI. He then posted the latest ONI, which peaks at ~+3.5C in OND, instead of RONI. RONI actually peaks at ~+2.77C in OND as per this image:
  17. GaWx
    Per Cocorahs reports, Henderson and surrounding counties have been hit with very heavy rains in the aggregate during the 96 hours ending at 7AM today! 5/22-3: 5/23-4: 5/24-5: 5/25-6:
  18. GaWx
    Watch the NE Gulf and vicinity for a possible TS next week per some model runs.
  19. GaWx
    1. 2023 never got close to a +3 as far as I know. 2. Prior to today’s 0Z run, the highest CFSv2 progged peak mean I can recall seeing is this that I saved from 12/11/2023, which had 2 getting to +3 amp and the other 2 to +2 amp with a peak mean of ~+2.45: 3. However, this run turned out to be way off as just 6 days later it had this, a progged peak of only ~+1.45 and actual peak was only in the low +1s from other runs I saved: 4. Today’s 0Z by a good margin had the highest progged mean that I’m aware of any run I’ve seen because otherwise I would have saved them: insane progged peak probably (since can’t see green member peak) ~+3.5!! 5. But the newest run (12Z) came back to Earth quite a bit from the insane +3.5 although it’s still progging a potent peak at +2.3, which is still the 3rd highest progged peak I’ve saved: 6. Keep in mind that the first time I had seen these charts wasn’t til 2023. Thus I have no idea what it peaked at in prior strong El Niños. 7. Keep in mind that while I like to follow this guidance, it is the CFSv2. So, although well worth following, always take with a grain, especially out 2 weeks+! @Stormchaserchuck1 @snowman19
  20. GaWx
    The Euro out by 1AM 365 days/yr? I sure could get behind that! I agree about the importance of knowing history to avoid repeating it. In addition to that, however, I’m worried that the influence of the almighty $ may be interfering with objectivity/logic like is often the case.
  21. GaWx
    Today’s Euro rainfall for 5/25-31: still very impressive with even heavier for parts of AL/GA/SC (dark green area, which has ~3.5-4”+, is larger) although not quite as wet for E NC/Triangle/Triad as yesterday’s even though still quite wet. This would be what the drought doc ordered/dream come true. This is one of the most widespread very heavy Euro weekly rainfall maps outside of a tropical cyclone that I’ve ever seen! Many tropical cyclones don’t produce this much over such a large area! For this reason, although I’ve once again gotten nothing measurable and have had only 0.3” for the last 3+ weeks (its been like there’s a force-field here), I’m still excited about the prospects:
  22. GaWx
    There’s a lot of bipartisan chatter again about making DST year-round like they tried in 1974. That was a failure due to morning darkness leading to school children being killed. So, they prematurely terminated the experiment: https://washingtonian.com/2022/03/15/the-us-tried-permanent-daylight-saving-time-in-the-70s-people-hated-it/# The reason I’m posting about it here is because that would unfortunately mean all wx models coming out an hour later than they would during standard time in winter. Can you say 2AM 0Z Euro in winter? That would be absolutely horrible. The president, once again, calls for year-round daylight saving time Joe Gatling, a golfer and a gardener, favors year-round Daylight Saving Time. “This would give me more opportunities … in golf [and] gardening]that is a little bit longer, so I’ll go for it,” said Gatling. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/president-once-again-calls-round-213659665.html
  23. GaWx
    This 72 hour map shows how well much of N ATL metro did as well as much of E GA (not my area), NW 1/2 of SC, part of NC foothills/mtns and E Carolinas, portions of E TN, and some of N AL. It also shows the shaft for the immediate RDU corridor although their best 24 hour period was just prior to this as posted earlier:
  24. GaWx
    More on the BoM warm bias: We remember how bad it was in 2023. But also: only 2 weeks ago, it had ~+1.15C for May (see image below) vs the latest’s only ~+0.55C in the image I posted in the previous post! It’s been doing this for 2 months and that’s the kind of thing it kept doing in 2023. We’re still likely headed for a super-Nino, but very likely not as warm as the RONI based ~+3.0C 3 month average super-super Nino the BoM is showing. It could easily be 0.5C too warm based on April/May and based on it being ~0.75C too warm based on forecasts from around this point in 2023:
  25. GaWx
    The latest weekly BoM, which just extended to Nov for the first time, is forecasting a +2.9C RONI in SON. The record back to 1950 is +2.5C (1982). However, caution on the ultimate strength is advised due to warm bias as it’s been significantly too warm in April and May:
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