GaWx

Similar to yesterday meaning Wednesday’s run (mean dipped to only +7) remains the weakest: Wed. run:

I don’t think this is true. Now if they had a cold bias, that would be true.

I of course don’t post every day’s runs. But because I posted yesterday’s significantly colder week 4, I felt obligated to post today’s significantly warmer week 4 so as to not appear one-sided. Chuck’s guess that that was a top 15 percentile jump is as reasonable an educated guess as any. So, it was a “pretty big jump” as he said though nothing at all extreme, especially considering that’s still out at week 4. Consider how much colder it got for early next week on all models since that was during only week 2! So, considering all of this and the inherent unpredictability out a month, sig. jumps that far out on any long range ensemble are pretty common and shouldn’t ever be surprising.

I think Josh said he was in the right eyewall. But I don’t think he was in the eye itself.

If we get that early SSWE, any E US cold affects would probably be stronger in Jan than in Dec based on typical lag time.

Today’s Euro Weeklies run for Dec 1-7 has backed off significantly from yesterday’s run, which was the coldest run yet. It looks like the run from 2 days ago. Also, the subsequent two weeks are warmer than yesterday. All 3 weeks are now near normal in most of the E US. Dec 1-7: Today Yesterday:

Looks like a Dec/Jan winter the way it appears now. That would be hard to beat.

Here are the progs for Nov 11th lows from the latest ICON/CMC/Euro/GFS/UKMET1. GA-SAV: 29/31/34/34/35-NE ATL (Chamblee): 25/23/29/34/322. SC-GSP: 23/21/29/27/29-CAE: 28/32/33/32/343. NC-CLT: 25/30/31/29/32-RDU: 28/34/32/32/35—————————Average for each model for the 6 cities:ICON: 26.3CMC: 28.5Euro: 31.3GFS: 31.3UKMET: 32.6Any guesses for:1. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do best?2. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do worst?———————My guesses: 1. Best: Euro/GFS (tie) 2. Worst: ICON Edit: I’m guessing that the average low for these 6 cities will be 30.5F.

The fall foliage here is headed to a significantly earlier peak than average. This is the earliest I can recall in many years! Recent years have peaked in the last week of Nov or Dec. Anyone else have a fall leaf report?

Hey Anthony, Looks great! It isn’t quite as good as yesterday’s, which was the best run yet as it had the mean drop to 7 at the low point, but I still love this!

Euro Weeklies Dec 1-7: today’s run is coldest run yet

WeatherBell is good for models (although their CFS maps have major issues).

From elsewhere: The number of deaths caused by Melissa on Jamaica is now 35 and still rising with an unknown number of people missing. Unfortunately, as expected, this makes Melissa one of the deadliest hurricanes in Jamaica in the recorded database (1851 - now) and the deadliest since Gilbert (using the current death toll). Here are the other most destructive hurricanes in Jamaica since 1851.Hurricane / Year / Death tollCharlie / 1951 / 1521912 Jamaica hurricane / 1912 / 1001903 Jamaica hurricane / 1903 / 65Gilbert / 1988 / 45Tropical Depression One / 1979 / 41Melissa / 2025 / 35 That’s from Kevin, a Storm2K poster

Here’s my current NWS forecast low for Nov 11th:MONDAY NIGHT CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30.- If this verifies, it would be the earliest freeze at KSAV since the 11/7 32 low of 2010-If it gets down to the predicted 30, that would be the coldest so early in the season since way back in 1976! https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=chs

Here’s my current NWS forecast low for Nov 11th:MONDAY NIGHT CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30.- If this verifies, it would be the earliest freeze at KSAV since the 11/7 32 low of 2010-If it gets down to the predicted 30, that would be the coldest so early in the season since way back in 1976! https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=chs

Hey Don, Thanks for clarifying. The 1+2 anomalies are found at this ERSST monthlies link that has the four Nino anomalies (warning: these are all based on 1991-2020 anomalies rather than being based on moving base periods): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

Hey Don, I’m still confused about 1951-2 and 1952-3. 1. 1951-2 had cooling rather than warming from Nov through Feb (coming out of El Niño) and with none of the monthlies near that -0.5 threshold: Nov 1951: +1.19 Dec 1951: +0.74 Jan 1952: +0.49 Feb 1952: +0.37 2. 1952-3 had sharp warming in Jan but these were nowhere near the -0.5 threshold that you were going by: Nov 1952: -0.14 Dec 1952: +0.03 Jan 1953: +0.56 Feb 1953: +0.61 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Thanks, Don. Did you mean to include 1951-2 and 1952-3 or are those typos?

Paul Roundy talks about the Euro showing the El Niño returning next spring. However, I’d advise caution due to a warm bias that I’ve noticed with the Euro based on many years of Nino 3.4 SST anomaly data: ECMWF clearly moving toward El Niño solutions this spring. Huge Maritime Continent westerly wind event developing, which will move warm water volume from the eastern Indian Ocean to the West Pacific. In the meantime, Pacific trade wind surge will maintain La Niña conditions for a couple more months.

Eric Webb expects a rapid -IOD collapse starting soon, which models are showing the effects of as I showed on their Dec IO SST anomaly maps. He’s expecting El Niño to get started very early, which he said elsewhere could conceivably save Feb from being a mild month (we’ll see): A more rapid shift towards El Niño is probably the one wild card we could play that would have the potential to significantly alter the outcome of the latter part of this winter/February in our favor (though even then it wouldn't be a guarantee that things would shift favorably even in that scenario).

Wow! This would likely be the earliest major SSW since Nov of 1968 should it occur!

Wow! By a good margin today’s run has the weakest SPV and highest % of members with a major very early season SSW in late Nov or early Dec: would likely be the earliest major SSW since Nov of 1968! Before this, the weakest SPV was on this run from 2 days ago:

That much colder Jan vs the prior run is likely imho due to the increased support by a decent portion of the 100 ensemble members for a major SSW in late Nov or early Dec when considering the typical timing of the lagged cold. If this early SSWE were to actually occur, I’d expect Jan to verify even colder than this. But if it doesn’t, it could very well verify warmer like the prior run you showed.

New Euro 2m by month shows a semi-front loaded winter though Jan is actually the coldest meaning it may be better described as a mid-loaded; this perhaps is largely related to the decent % of members having a major SSW in either late Nov or early Dec and the typical lagged E US cold well afterward for those members. That lagged cold would tend to be most concentrated in the first half of Jan. Thus, if that major SSW were to occur, I’d expect a colder Dec and especially Jan than what these are showing. If it doesn’t, I’d expect a warmer Dec and especially Jan vs this. **Climo is 1993-2016** Dec: similar to prior run Jan: much colder than prior run likely related to increased threat of early major SSW Feb: slightly warmer than prior run

I agree. There’d be nothing bad about “front-loaded”. A “front-loaded” near normal DJF averaged out with colder than normal Dec-Jan 15th/warmer than normal Jan 16th-Feb would be much better than a “no-loaded” warmer than normal DJF. And Febs have been mild for awhile when averaged out (though with variations year to year) regardless…so mild Feb kind of expected in La Niña.