GaWx

I remain on “hope the Euro Weeklies for Jan fail miserably mode” because not only did today’s hold onto the mild pattern (though consistent blowtorch still well W of the E US thanks probably to refreshing CAD at times), they warmed that final week of the run (1/19-25) vs yesterday: H5 yesterday’s run for 1/19-25: H5 today’s run for 1/19-25: 2m yesterday’s run for 1/19-25: 2m today’s run for 1/19-25: Edit: Lakes to NE still average near normal temps almost every week of the run.

NG bulls want the opposite of this EPS HDD trajectory (see left graph): the cold part through 12/15 was dialed in to prices many days ago:

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/ Then click on 2nd map on right.

WCS: Pretty steady for now but still within a longer term (6 month) rise:

Today’s GEFS PNA forecast is the most negative for this Dec that I can recall: This implies the realistic chance for a sub -1 Dec PNA. Whereas that’s bad news for those wanting E US cold in the 2nd half of Dec in the MidAtlantic/OH Valley south, it isn’t necessarily bad news for January prospects. That’s because in the vast majority of cases for -ENSO, the PNA in January rose sharply from Dec: PNA Dec/Jan for -ENSO for strongly -PNA in Dec - 1955-6: -2.1/-1.3 (rose 0.8) - 1961-2: -1.2/-0.1 (rose 1.1) - 1964-5: -1.7/-0.2 (rose 1.5) - 1971-2: -1.5/-1.4 (rose 0.1) - 1984-5: -1.6/+1.6 (rose 3.2) - 1996-7: -1.2/+0.6 (rose 1.8) - 2008-9: -1.4/+0.6 (rose 2.0) - 2010-1: -1.8/+1.3 (rose 3.1) - 2012-3: -1.0/+0.6 (rose 1.6) - 2013-4: -0.9/+1.0 (rose 1.9) - 2021-2: -1.6/+1.0 (rose 2.6) So, average PNA rise Dec to Jan for these was a whopping 1.8! Dec temperature anomalies: coldest N Rockies to N Plains/mild much of SE 1/3: Jan temp. anomalies: coldest shifts 1,000 miles SE and warmth gone https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Natural gas is down still another 3% on the day, which brings the total drop since the peak of 8 days ago to a very steep 25% on an anticipated much warmer E US pattern (though maybe not to a torch in the means as I stated in my prior post) starting mid to late next week and continuing for the foreseeable future! At least that’s some good news for future heating bills. @Stormchaserchuck1

The Euro Weeklies suggest the most intense and persistent torching will actually be concentrated well to the W and SW of the E coast. So, whereas a big warmup vs the current very cold pattern is coming on all models, that big warmup in the E US appears to take it to only moderately warmer than normal instead of downright torchy when averaged out.

And there’s even a chance at still another with the Arctic plunge coming in Sunday!

Once we get to Dec 17th, the SE will have had virtually every day colder than normal for 3 weeks. In addition, much of NC will have had 3 snows even though mainly minor. In the past few decades, only 2010 will have been clearly colder for that same period and 2002/2000 close, but none of those had 3 different snows in the RDU/GSO area. 1989 was the last time it was this cold and with 3 snows during this early period.

For the SE US early next week, this is going to be quite the intense cold snap but also quick! Enjoy it while you can as that will probably be the last opportunity for very intense cold for quite awhile. It’s entirely possible it will end up the coldest of the season though there’s no way to know obviously.

Anthony, Thanks. Indeed, I realize that. The difference is that the one I posted is the official RMM that will go into the records together with all since 6/1/1974, the others that are already in the record book for folks like me to analyze. The ones you posted won’t. I’m not sure why they differ, but I prefer the Australian RMM. The ones you posted will be later essentially be forgotten by history.

Indeed, in Dec it is for the E US close to the worst, if not THE worst along with phase 6 as the image below shows. However, this is only a VERY weak phase 5 (not too far from the center of the circle) and thus isn’t nearly as bad on average as phase 5 is outside of the circle (it’s probably close to neutral):

Check this out. The official Australian RMM MJO for Dec 9th has already been released: after the Dec 3-7 phase 8 went surprisingly (to me) to Dec 8th’s very weak phase 6, Dec 9th comes in at very weak phase 5! Holy smokes! I still think it may retreat back to phase 8 later, but that remains to be seen:

1. For Dec, I recently counted the # of days that had weak MJO (amp <1) as well as strong MJO (amp of 2+) days 1974-2024: Avg # days <1/>2 MJO amp per Dec 70s: 14/1 80s: 16/1 90s: 10/3 00s: 12/7 10s: 12/5 20s: 8/7 Note how weak far outnumbered strong in the 1975-1989! And then note how the strong was almost up to weak in 2020-24! —————— 2. Jan: Due to time constraints, I just counted strong amp days 1975-2025: Avg # >2 MJO amp days per Jan 70s: 11 80s: 3 90s: 6 00s: 9 10s: 9 20s: 9 -Keep in mind that Jan has on average the strongest amp of any month, which seems intuitive. -Note that the 70s had the strongest, which may be due to randomness since there were only 5 years. - If you were to ignore the 70s, you’d see a notable progression to a higher # of strong amp days in Jan from the 80s to the 00s+. ————— 3. Feb: Like for Jan, I just counted strong amp days 1975-2025: Avg # >2 MJO amp days per Feb 70s: 4 80s: 4 90s: 5 00s: 5 10s: 9 20s: 6 One can see a slow increase of strong amp days in Feb as we move forward in time if we ignore the 2020s. ———— 4. DJF all combined shows the increase of strong amp days better: # of >2 MJO amp days per DJF 70s-80s: 11 90s-00s: 17.5 10s-20s: 23 So, per each DJF, 2010-25 had on average twice the number of strong amp MJO days as 1974-1989! Source for daily MJO amp: https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

Today’s Euro Weeklies for 12/22-1/18 are even slightly uglier than yesterday’s ugly maps with a strong -PNA bringing warmer than normal for each week’s average for most of the US with the strongest warmth from the lower Midwest through the C/S Plains to the SW US, where it torches for part of the time in late Dec and early Jan. The E US is still clearly warmer than normal but like yesterday no torch dominates there. Hopefully, these maps fail miserably but I hate seeing them. But in case they were to not fail and before y’all jump off of a cliff, there is some good news for the first run with the new week (1/19-25): it transitions toward a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO. Maybe, this is a sign of better things to come by mid to late Jan? For 1/19-25: N America H5 Global H5: N America 2m temps: ahhhh with much colder than prior maps!

NG is down another 8% today and is now down a whopping 23% vs the high of one week ago! Here’s the ugly wx reason though it’s great news for future energy bills for the time being (actually NG marketers have lots of storage to draw from and thus the retail prices don’t vary nearly as sharply as one might think; also there are state price utility commission controls in some states): look on the left and that steep dive in EPS HDDs that flatline way below normal near 15/day for the purple 0Z run (today’s 12Z run wasn’t out yet on this…I think it came back slightly then to 16ish/day): @Stormchaserchuck1

As we all know, La Niña favors a weaker than average southern jet and we’re solidly into La Niña (per the MEI/RONI). So, this is totally expected based on ENSO. I wouldn’t be surprised if it averages weaker than normal the rest of the winter. That’s the best bet. But as is normal, there are usually short periods of increased S jet from time to time even in La Niña just like there are usually short periods of weak S jet in El Nino.

I meant unexpected with regard to the main model MJO projections we follow. None of them on any day’s run had it going into 6 though it likely will leave quickly.

There’s been an ~3 day lag time in getting the official MJO phase/amp. As it turns out, the initial phase 8 lasted only 5 days (12/3-7) as it went into phase 6 on 12/8 (per 1st image), which was totally unexpected. I’ll keep following this closely to see if it re-enters phase 8, which I think has a very good chance but we’ll see. Regarding this initial phase 8 (12/3-7), here are some E half of US anomalies: - Boston: -8 - NYC: -8 - Baltimore: -7 - RDU: -8 - Atlanta: -7 - Birmingham: -7 - Tulsa: -7 These are on the border of B and MB normal: Below are the average anomalies for NDJ, which I believe are in degrees F. These average anomalies were well exceeded even if these are in degrees C: Thus, this was a colder than average phase 8 in the E US based on these 7 cities. Source for daily temperatures: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate

Today’s Euro Weeklies, after the current cold domination ends, are similar in the big picture to yesterday with a stout -PNA and mildness dominating much of the E US, especially the further south you go, into mid Jan though Jan 12-18 is slightly cooler than yesterday. That last week’s PNA is less negative. The NE US is again near normal on most maps. Mid-Atlantic is mainly mild til the last week.

He’s been trolling AmericanWx for years. You may not be familiar with his posts.

Hey troll, I didn’t say these were anywhere near historic. The record lows for 12/15 at RDU/ATL are way down at 8/11. But these are ~18 BN.

The 12Z model consensus is coming in for Mon lows at ~20F for ATL and ~17-20F for RDU.

It was about a week in advance when the models suddenly got colder for the period starting a few days before Thanksgiving. We’re now about a week before the progged big warmup in the E US. Just saying although I’m not saying that will likely happen again. But it’s good to stay grounded due to the inaccuracy of models more than a week out.

It also got down to 29 at KSAV, which was a few degrees colder than the forecasted lower 30s. But it didn’t quite get down to the coldest yet this season, which is the incredible 28 of Nov 11th.