Jump to content

GaWx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    19,152

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by GaWx

  1. GaWx
    What in the heck is going on with the recent NOAA weekly releases for Nino 3.4? The week centered on July 22nd was only barely below +1.75 per the cyclonicwx.com OISST graph! 01JUL2026 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 08JUL2026 2.6 1.6 1.3 0.5 15JUL2026 2.8 1.6 1.4 0.4 22JUL2026 3.0 1.8 1.4 0.3
  2. GaWx
    The Arctic N of 80N since late May has been the coldest per the DMI graphs since 1958! Keep in mind that variances in summer are quite small and thus this is all it has taken to easily be the coldest. IF this were to continue through late August and especially Sept, it’s going to get my attention more as that’s generally when anomalies have started to be warm in most recent years after a near neutral summer:
  3. GaWx
    Joe Bastardi’s current primary analogs for this winter are 1957-8 and 1965-6. He showed on Saturday that the avg temperature of those 2 in DJF is close to what recent CFS means have had. But his basis of using those 2 is that they’re both 2 very strong El Niños with a -PDO. What the? Whereas I hope we get something like what the CFS has been showing, I can’t figure out why he’s counting them as -PDO analogs: -1957-8 had +1 to +2.4 PDO every month from June through Feb! -1965-6 PDO was neutral in July and then +0.7 to +1.4 Aug-Dec. Then it fell only to borderline -PDO in Jan/Feb (-0.3, -0.2). https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat
  4. GaWx
    It’s interesting that both the Arctic and the Antarctic have been cold the last 2 months relative to the past. The Arctic N of 80N since late May has been the coldest per the DMI graphs since 1958! Keep in mind that variances in summer are quite small and thus this is all it has taken to easily be the coldest. IF this were to continue through late August and especially Sept, it’s going to get my attention more as that’s generally when anomalies have started to be warm in most recent years after a near neutral summer:
  5. GaWx
    From an Evansville, IN, pro-met These were the observations at Evansville, IN for 4-5-6pm on July 26, 2026. The dew point readings were 80-80 and 81. The 81 deg. F dewpoint tied the record for highest dew point in history at this location. It happened on 4 previous occasions.
  6. GaWx
    I just got measurable rain for the 1st time in ~10 days with a quick popup shower moving quickly ESE (a somewhat unusual direction). It gave me no more than 0.1”.
  7. GaWx
    OISST relative in 3.4 rose a lot yesterday (~0.1C): What will tomorrow’s official weekly release show though? They’ve been lower than what these OISST graphs were suggesting. This graph suggests it will be +1.7C for the prior calendar week avg. However, they had it at only +1.4C last Monday despite this chart suggesting +1.6C. So, they’ve been low vs the graph. In reality, the graph suggests it warmed a little more than 0.1C since the prior week. So, we’ll see.
  8. GaWx
    “Snowy” in ATL can be ~3”+ as the average SN/IP is ~2”. Thus snowy in ATL can easily be from just one storm. More often than not, “snowy” in any particular location in the SE US away from the mountains is mainly from just one major storm along with possibly one+ minor hits. Another thing about a place like ATL or even RDU vs Marquette: a much larger % of the wintry precip is sleet or ZR when averaged out over the decades. I roughly estimate 1” of sleet is equivalent to 2.5” of snow on average. So, for example, ATL got ~4” of sleet in 2/1979 and 1/1988. They had the water equivalent, impact, and staying power of ~10” of snow. In addition, ZR doesn’t even measure as S/IP as we know. So, the 2” ATL avg tends to understate to an extent its avg wintry precip vs, say, a straight 2” avg snow.
  9. GaWx
    History strongly supports a +PDO by no later than Nov as 94% of the 36 mod+ Ninos since the 1850s had a +PDO in Nov or earlier as only 2 didn’t have a NOAA +PDO by Nov: 1994/5 & 2023/4.
  10. GaWx
    It’s endless summer here with a very uncomfy 94 high at KSAV. I haven’t had significant rains at my place since way back on July 14th! However, Mon into the evening is looking promising. If that weren’t to deliver, it would be sprinklers time again.
  11. GaWx
    This image shows well that ‘97 was much more E based on July 19th:
  12. GaWx
    Chris put out this yesterday. I hate his confrontational juvenile behavior, which is totally unnecessary. Ignoring that and acknowledging that 1936 was made much worse due to very dry soils/drought, does he have a valid point about a possible double standard in the treatment of 1936 and 2026 European heatwaves? After all, they were both regional and 1936 covered a much larger area I believe: This is the 2nd part: The recent European heatwave was also regional. But for whatever reason, that is supposedly “incontrovertible proof” of catastrophic, rapid global climate change. I really want to know how any person can have this level of mental retardation. *Also, I’ve been reading some things regarding the magnitude of the Obs Time Bias possibly being exaggerated. I’ll probably post some of this later to get your thoughts.
  13. GaWx
    Out of 36 mod+ Ninos since 1850s, only 2 didn’t have NOAA +PDO by Nov: 1994/5 & 2023/4!
  14. GaWx
    Through July 24th, it’s the wettest on record since way back in 1941!
  15. GaWx
    To compare to the prior Nino, July was similarly strongly -PDO and it hit most neg ~Oct 1st. Then it rose to a more moderate -PDO:
  16. GaWx
    WCS PDO is still dropping and is now down to -1.81, lowest since early Oct:
  17. GaWx
    Thanks, Don. It will be interesting to see if 2026 beats 1998’s 100 days! As you said, the record of the daily SOs goes back only to 1991. I wonder if there’s any way to find dailies pre-1991. Based on the monthlies, I’d say that 1982-3 would have a 50% or higher chance of having a streak exceeding 100 days if the dailies could be found. Why? These monthlies, especially Nov-Mar: 1982 8 -22.2 1 1982 9 -20.0 1 1982 10 -20.5 1 1982 11 -30.0 1 1982 12 -22.6 1 1983 1 -31.4 1 1983 2 -35.7 1 1983 3 -25.7 1 Another good candidate per the monthlies is 1905, especially Mar-June: 1905 2 -18.5 3 1905 3 -27.7 1 1905 4 -38.2 1 1905 5 -34.3 1 1905 6 -27.7 1 1905 7 -19.8 1 One last good possibility is 1896, especially May-Aug: 1896 5 -38.8 3 1896 6 -27.0 1 1896 7 -19.1 1 1896 8 -21.0 1 1896 9 -18.2 1 1896 10 -19.2 1
  18. GaWx
    Yep, extent is doing worse than area as compared to recent years.
  19. GaWx
    -SOI has reached 74 straight days! That will continue supporting robust warming of Nino 3.4.
  20. GaWx

    TS Bertha

    GaWx replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters

    Parts of Houston metro received significantly more rainfall from Bertha than models had with up to ~5” vs mist progs of ~0.75”. Here’s the final advisory: BULLETIN Remnants Of Bertha Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 ...BERTHA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 96.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES Remnants Of Bertha Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Surface observations over eastern Texas indicate that Bertha no longer has a well-defined circulation, and has opened up into a trough. Therefore, the system has dissipated, and this will be the last advisory. Bertha's remnants will likely continue to produce some locally heavy rainfall over portions of eastern and southern Texas, where isolated flash flooding is possible overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 30.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
  21. GaWx
    Most Senators were alive during the 1974 year-round DST disaster that was thus quickly reversed. And can you imagine not getting the Euro til 2AM during the crucial winter season?
  22. GaWx
    The current -SOI streak has now surpassed the 72 day streak of 1997 and is now at 74 days. Only 1998’s 100 days has been longer as far back as daily records go at Long-Paddock: https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt
  23. GaWx
    Chris, June-July 1991 also didn’t get the memo (Also, May of 1991 was very warm): In addition, June-July of 1877 wasn’t cool.
  24. GaWx
    Thanks, Don! This is the first time I can recall becoming aware of this observation time bias potentially causing overcounting of high max temps due to double counting of these highs as a result of observers getting 24 hour max prior to 1940s during late afternoon, near the time of most very hot highs, as opposed to mainly doing it near sunrise 1940s+. Do you have a source with more details on this? How widespread was this practice of getting 24 hour max late in afternoon? Do you by chance know how often this would result in double counting hot highs?
  25. GaWx

    TS Bertha

    GaWx replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters

    12Z UKMET: 1005 mb Galveston hour 33 -Has TS force winds C and W LA coast but nowhere in TX. -Rainfall for GLV-HOU only ~0.5-75”. Max is ~4” and is near Matagorda Bay. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.8N 88.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 22.07.2026 0 29.8N 88.4W 1000 40 0000UTC 23.07.2026 12 29.3N 90.7W 1003 33 1200UTC 23.07.2026 24 29.0N 92.4W 1001 43 0000UTC 24.07.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING
×
×
  • Create New...