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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    Winter storns in the South outside of the mountains are for the most part somewhat freaky events. Thus, due to the low frequency, our snowiest or iciest winters are often from mainly just one major (or series of) winter storms at most. Examples: late Jan of 1940, Feb of 1952, mid Feb of 1958, 12/31/1963, 2/9-10/1973, 3/1-2/1980, 3/24/1983, late Jan of 1987, 1/7-8/1988, mid Jan of 1992, the ice storm of late Jan 2005, and Dec of 2018. All of these were during El Niño and these were enough to make them wintry. So, El Nino’s on average produce for wintry precip despite often being Mei Lu from just one storm on the right track (usually Gulf to off SE Coast) at the right time (when cold enough air to the N/NW being tapped into enough).
  2. GaWx
    Today’s OISST update (for June 3rd) doesn’t have the dramatic 0.09C rise of each of the last 2 days, but it still rose 0.04C to +1.229C.The implied RONI equivalent is ~+0.7C: *Corrected for typos*
  3. GaWx
    With the typical mean +PNA, even Canadian air that’s mild for them and the N US can come down rapidly enough to be BN once it gets to the south. Example: 20 F in MSP, which is AN for there in winter, can come down fast enough to limit modification and still bring BN 30F to the south. Some of the coldest winters in the SE were when it was mild in Canada. Canadian air with a straight shot down here is always cold for us. The coldest anomalies in a +PNA are often in the SE with New England to the Lakes often NN.
  4. GaWx
    Good news here. Not surprisingly, the “exceptional” that covered most of SE GA has improved one level to “extreme”. Reason to celebrate as it’s “only” extreme now.
  5. GaWx
    Hey yoda, Thanks. Would you please post this in this newly created 2026 C and E Pacific tropical thread? TIA.
  6. GaWx
    Please post 2026 C and E Pacific discussion/activity in here. Thank you.
  7. GaWx
    Tropical ATL predictions so far ITT: ineedsnow 11/4/2 me 8/4/1 ACE 52 LongBeachSurfFreak 12/5/2 Jconsor 13/6/2 ACE 90 Any others? Please get your entries in by Sunday evening. The winning prize is fantastic, a kudos!
  8. GaWx
    The model progs are suggesting a shot at a 1017 mb Darwin SLP on June 7th. If that occurs, it would easily become the new highest Darwin SLP that early in the year based on records back to 1992. The current record highest that early in the year is 4/22/2023’s 1016.2 mb. If it reaches 1017, it would become the earliest 1017 on record by ~15 days!
  9. GaWx
    Here we go folks. June 2nd was the 2nd day in a row of a steep warming in 3.4 (another 0.09) (RONI up to ~+0.7C). That makes it a two day warming total of 0.18C! It hasn’t warmed at this rate since way back in mid-April. A notable but delayed warming after the start of a long and strong -SOI period is common and was in addition to model hints why I said on Monday before this two day rise to expect after the prior 15 day pause next week’s weekly 3.4 update to be a few ticks warmer:
  10. GaWx
    This morning was a refreshing low of 60 at KSAV and 64 at KSVN. Dewpoints are in the very nice/rare for June mid 40s. So, needless to say, I intend to walk at one of the parks this evening as I did yesterday.
  11. GaWx
    I also have 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers since 1980: 1982, 1987, 1994, 2006, 2015, 2018 I’m counting the barely positive QBOs of 1997 and 2004 as neutral QBO. Otherwise there’d be 8. The only one of the 6 that wasn’t warm in the E US was 2018, which was NN to slightly AN in the E US. So, it appears to be a pretty good correlation although the sample size is pretty small. Aside: Today’s SOI was the most negative so far this year at -34.80.
  12. GaWx
    Lower anomalies in 3/1+2 than 3.4/4. The bigger/smaller the differential, the stronger/weaker the Modoki.
  13. GaWx
    I’d say no based on past strong+ El Niño anomalies. Nino 4 has been at a minimum +0.5C. The idea is that 3.4 and 4 anomalies are lower than 3 and 1+2 as opposed to needing to be ~0.
  14. GaWx
    There was just some very light rain today (a T). It was windy from the E as cooler, drier air was coming in. With temps down to the mid 70s, the steady breeze, and dewpoints in the mid 50s, it easily felt good enough to walk at the park for the first time in nearly 2 weeks despite a few rain drops.
  15. GaWx
    OISST rose on June 1st a whopping ~0.09C, which is the largest gain in one day since way back on April 13th! Is this just the start of an overall big warming? Based on the recent SOI and models, I think it is:
  16. GaWx
    Latest CFS run’s peak: +3.0 (record is 1982’s +2.5). Whereas this could easily be overdone based on the past, getting at least a 1982 like record peak of +2.5 is likely at this point. This has June at +1.0. With today near +0.6, there’s going to need to be pretty rapid warming within the next couple of weeks to keep up with this. Based on the recent/current strong -SOI, this is quite doable as of now:
  17. GaWx
    Nino 3.4 was unchanged at +0.5 in yesterday’s release. The other 3 regions warmed 0.1. I’m expecting 3.4 to be a few ticks warmer in the next weekly release as a typical delayed reaction to the start of the SOI drop a couple of weeks ago. 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7
  18. GaWx
    Thanks, Chris. Indeed, Cansips was much too cold in the E US this spring. And it has been too cold there at other times. But I’m curious. Does it actually have a well analyzed documented cold bias in the E US based on an amply sized sample based on a good number of years? I wouldn’t be surprised but it’s important to know, of course.
  19. GaWx
    Latest CFS DJF fits super Nino climo well unlike what Cansips is still showing, which may be related to it having Modoki: CFS DJF: looks like what one would expect with super-Nino: Cansips DJF: still looks off but may be due to it having Modoki
  20. GaWx
    Cansips is still going full Modoki unlike Euro and CFS. But I think it may have a Modoki bias based on at least one previous year. Latest Cansips DJF has warmest SST anomalies over W region 3.4/region 4: (**corrected** as I had region 3 typo) *Edited for typo
  21. GaWx
    Isn’t the primary key in winter assuming you're far enough north usually the storm tracks?
  22. GaWx
    I’ll give an extreme hypothetical case. Let’s say ONI were +3.3C and RONI were 0C because the tropical oceans were insanely warm. So, in other words, everything in and also around Nino 3.4 as well as the other tropical waters is insanely warm. Then wouldn’t that mean essentially no Nino SST pattern/no contrast vs surrounding waters existing to then lead to typical Nino atmospheric responses? That’s my understanding about the RONI idea.
  23. GaWx
    Actually, this post by Jeff B. is somewhat misleading imho as a monthly RONI peak of +2.7C wouldn’t be any stronger than 1982. Yes, an ONI monthly peak of +3.3C would by far be the strongest as he said. But RONI is more representative of the El Niño surge, itself, divorced from the CC contribution.
  24. GaWx
    But what’s mysterious is that there have been numerous chilly winter maps posted for this and past winters with many significantly colder than this and without objection. Yes, this is colder than the prior month’s run, which was my main point, but it’s still NN in the E US. The coldest is only 0.5C BN, which is NN. Granted it’s 1981-2010 climo, but that’s still NN. So, it’s not even a cold map there!
  25. GaWx
    Torch, cold, in between, or whatever winter runs have been an integral part of these annual threads for as long as I can remember. Without them, these ENSO titled threads would be much quieter. I’ve personally posted a good # of winter runs (often with caveats like “fwiw” due to model unreliability/biases) in every one of these threads whether mild, cold, or whatever without anyone including you ever having a problem with the posts. I don’t understand why you out of the blue made a big deal just after I posted the latest Cansips maps as a follow-up to raindance’s post. To me it was a perfect example of this:
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