GaWx

12Z UKMET fairly similar to 0Z run but SE of that track: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 27.0N 83.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.07.2026 96 27.0N 83.0W 1012 27 0000UTC 20.07.2026 108 27.2N 82.5W 1010 23 1200UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.3N 81.3W 1012 29 0000UTC 21.07.2026 132 30.0N 79.1W 1008 31 1200UTC 21.07.2026 144 31.8N 77.6W 1004 39 0000UTC 22.07.2026 156 33.8N 75.5W 1001 41 1200UTC 22.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

Further to my CFSv2 post above, here’s how the CFSv2 did in the E US with their mid-July forecasts for the subsequent JFM: For ‘26 (Nina) too warm For ‘25 (Nina): close NE; too warm SE For ‘24 (Nino): too cold, especially NE For ‘23 (Nina): much too cold, esp. NE For ‘22 (Nina): overall a bit too warm For ‘21 (Nina): a bit too cold For ‘20 (warm neutral): much too cold (similar miss to ‘23) For ‘19 (Nino): close NE but too cold SE For ‘18 (Niña): close For ‘17 (Niña): much too cold (similar miss to ‘20 and ‘23) For ‘16 (Nino): close NE but too cold SE For ‘15 (Nino): much too warm NE, too warm SE For ‘14 (cold neutral): a bit too warm (good forecast but not cold enough) For ‘13 (cold neutral): close For ‘12 (Niña): much too cold (similar to ‘17, ‘20, ‘23) The all important tally for the 15 JFMs of ‘12-‘26 to give us idea of summer CFS bias: 1) NE -Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): 24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12 -Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14 -Close 5 yrs/33%: 25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13 Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) too cold…so not a strong cold bias averaged out where one can take a CFS fcast and assume it will be too cold since only 40% too cold…thus, that wouldn’t be wise 2) SE -Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12 -Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14 -Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13 Overall, averages a cold bias in the SE, especially since 4 much too cold and none much too warm. OTOH, not a strong cold bias averaged out since only slightly more than 50% too cold; so wouldn’t be wise at all to assume CFS will verify as too cold @mitchnick

After researching this carefully, the following CFSv2 forecast map that JB posted for 2027 actually may not be the coldest population weighted CFSv2 JFM forecast overall for the U.S. on the site predicted in summer, which goes back to the progs for JFM of 2012: Regarding the following forecast, which was made in the summer of ‘13 for JFM of 2014, the U.S. overall may be colder than the above map on a population as opposed to geographically weighted basis because the most heavily populated NE to upper Midwest is significantly colder despite the warmer S: JB was specifically referring to pop. weighted this far out as he said: “ Population Weighted, CFSV2 with Coldest JFM in hits archive I went back thru all CFSV2 forecasts since 2012 on its site. This is the coldest JFM it has ever shown from this far out“ Now, regarding a JFM prog made at anytime of year, which JB wasn’t talking about, this one made in early Jan for 2013 appears to be the coldest of any I found on either a pop or geo wted basis: Interestingly, the aforementioned recent forecast for JFM 2027 is not that much colder than the following one also made in summer for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold): The above summer of ‘15 prog for JFM ‘16 ended up failing miserably for most of the country as this is what actually happened: This miserable failure, itself, doesn’t exactly bode well for those like me hoping the cold on the JB posted CFS for JFM ‘27 will verify well since we’re again going into a super-Nino.

I just noticed that the 0Z UKMET has a NE Gulf TD from this on Sunday and a TS offshore the SE US on Tue: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.8N 83.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.07.2026 108 27.8N 83.1W 1011 33 0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.5N 83.2W 1007 26 1200UTC 20.07.2026 132 29.2N 82.1W 1008 27 0000UTC 21.07.2026 144 30.2N 81.2W 1007 32 1200UTC 21.07.2026 156 32.2N 79.1W 1002 40 0000UTC 22.07.2026 168 34.7N 75.5W 1000 47

This could be the best case scenario from a helping reduce the SE drought perspective. A not too strong TC that provides beneficial rains (hopefully not flooding obviously).

I’ve exceeded 2” over the last hour, heaviest hourly rate of the summer so far, but it’s lightened up quite a bit although it hasn’t stopped. Drainage projects areas have both held up well so far and the street isn’t as bad as it had been before the nearby ditch was redug.Follow-up for SAV area flooding:455 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 800 PM EDT. * AT 455 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... POOLER, RICHMOND HILL, WINDSOR FOREST, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, COFFEE BLUFF, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, I-16/I-95 INTERCHANGE, HUTCHINSON ISLAND AND MONTGOMERY ————— *Edit: I ended up with ~2.15”.

There’s a possibility of exceeding 1018 mb in Darwin on Thursday (7/16), which would be only the 2nd day on record back to 1991 per the SOI daily pressure records. That record high is 1018.35 mb. Even that could be challenged. This is courtesy of a 1040 S Australian polar high. Another strong polar high is progged to do similar next week in this typical El Niño pattern that brings Darwin pressure up.

Some just popped thunderstorms in my area at 4PM moving slowly W. CTG lightning strike very close! 4:47PM update: I just had another close CTG strike. We are getting hit hard with very heavy rain in much of the SAV area. I’ve already had ~1.5” and it is still pouring. This will really test my recent drainage projects! As a result:CHATHAM GA- 422 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026 ..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. * WHERE...CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * WHEN...UNTIL 545 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 417 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, AREAS OF CHATHAM COUNTY, INCLUDING THE CITY OF SAVANNAH, IS EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO A FEW ROADS TO DEVELOP DEEP PONDING OF WATER OR ROADWAY FLOODING. - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... POOLER, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, WINDSOR FOREST, I-16/I-95 INTERCHANGE, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, HUTCHINSON ISLAND, SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, COFFEE BLUFF AND GODLEY STATION.

Just a trace of rain here today. “Only” 93 today at KSAV, which is actually NN, after a 9 days straight of upper 90s-100.

Is Mr. Bastardi accurate in saying this is the coldest CFSv2 JFM for the U.S. ever forecasted on its site (back to 2012)? Opinions about this map? Keep in mind that this is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run: Precip anoms from same run:

Don’t the messenger: I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not. What do y’all think about this map, which is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run? Precip anoms from same run:

Baker, MT, only goes back to 1988!

Still watching Gulf early next week:

From elsewhere:Icon is the first Global that far out (this weekend) that shows low pressure forming in the Big Bend and hanging around the eastern panhandle. It gets to about 1007mb which isn’t particularly low. But it is at the surface. If it is close to being right, look for the other operational models to start going to that type of solution. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026071312&fh=3

We’re probably heading to a new warmest OHC of this Nino per this (often the far right portion of these graphs is later revised due to interpolation…so it isn’t certain yet):

Thanks, Adam. It appears that Zeke’s using ONI based climo comparisons. If he were to instead use RONI, it would still be the warmest on record but not by as much as the 0.8C that he refers to. So, it would be an easy record breaker even by RONI standards.

Yeah, the wording does sound kind of funny. Obviously, nobody can ever say what the hottest, coldest, etc. of all time/ever is in any location since that can’t possibly be known. But saying something is an “all-time record” in a location is, of course, totally different and is what the NWS is referring to. Now I’m going to get more technical: whereas one can’t possibly know the hottest or coldest ever in a location, they can know the hottest or coldest ever in a city (I’m saying “city” not “location”) if records have been kept since the city’s founding. Do you see the difference?

Nino 1+2 came in at +2.6 vs my guess of +2.7 to +2.8. Nino 3.4 rose only from +1.2 to +1.3 vs my guess of a rise to +1.4. The daily relative 3.4 OISST graph (see below) had suggested a rise of 0.2 rather than 0.1. Perhaps the rise was just under 0.15 and this rounded down to a rise of 0.1? But also, the image below of relative OISST for 3.4 suggests the relative 3.4 for last week (7/5-7/11 or the last 7 dots) was actually ~+1.5 (actually a little warmer than +1.5). So what’s going on? How come NOAA had it at only +1.3 being that they state it is OISST based? The +1.3 and this chart don’t jibe: 01JUL2026 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 08JUL2026 2.6 1.7 1.3 0.5

Chris, thanks. A rise in H5 hts in a warming world makes perfect sense, of course. Per your graph, the bulk of the rise in winter in the portion of the globe that you specified has been since the early 1990s and there’s been a rise of ~4 dm from ~530 to ~534 since then. In a warming world, we know that both the avg ridge and the avg trough H5 ht. will naturally be higher. But relative to each other, wouldn’t the differential remain ~same? I’ll make up some #s to illustrate my Q: -let’s say that in the early 1990s that the avg ridge for the entire globe year-round was 575 dm and the avg trough was 540 dm -let’s say that in the early 2020s that the avg ridge was 580 dm and the avg trough was 545 dm. The avg of each has to rise with a warming globe. -That would mean that the mean difference remained at 35 dm. So, relative to the avg trough/ridge, the avg ridge/trough wouldn’t be stronger/weaker assuming this hypothetical example were near reality

I’m educatedly guessing that the weekly relative Nino 3.4 will rise from last Monday’s +1.2 to +1.4 in today’s release. I’m guessing 1+2 will be in the +2.7 to +2.8 range. These weeklies are OISST based. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in these places in the NW US and I’m guessing there are others that I missed: 1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long): ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 2) N UT ..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY, UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002, 2021, AND 2022. 3) E ID: THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places: A. How much did CC likely contribute to these? B. How much did UHI likely contribute? Example: SLC now has 200K folks. But OTOH, check out Miles City pop: still small at only 8.4K in 2020 with only a 17% increase since 1930 with records starting in 1937. Thus, UHI factor seems close to nil. Yet, they set their new all time record by 4F! —————— 1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long): ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 —————— 2) N UT ..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY, UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002, 2021, AND 2022. Records at SLC go back to 1872! ——————— 3) E ID: THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

How often does something like this happen in the NW US in July during a strong El Niño? I assume hardly ever. Please correct me if I’m wrong. Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places: 1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long): ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 2) N UT ..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY, UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002, 2021, AND 2022. 3) E ID: THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

Chris, Keep in mind that the mild 2015-6 avg. in the E US was so heavily dominated by the warmest Dec on record in many locations. I assume you realize that Jan-Feb wasn’t mild in the E US outside of New England with Jan actually being chilly VA S and SW:

To his credit, Joe Bastardi made quite a good call on Arthur starting way back in late April when he projected MJO to go into phase 8 in early June and thus forecasted TCG in the Gulf based on climo of phase 8. He was about a week too early, which he admitted and he even admitted he got lucky. It actually formed when the MJO moved from 8 to 1. Regardless, I’m giving him credit, especially since I sometimes criticize him for being wrong. I’m mentioning this now because during the last couple of days, he’s been talking about the MJO returning to phase 8 for most of the 2nd half of July on the Euro (JMA agrees) although the GEFS holds it back and only barely reaches 8 before bringing it back into 7. So, based on the Euro, JB is sort of predicting Gulf tropical mischief potential again later this month based on July phase 8 climo being similar to June phase 8. On Friday he showed the Euro AI with a Gulf TS in the E Gulf on July 22nd. We’ll see.