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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    The SOI has been negative for 37 days in a row.
  2. GaWx
    The area near the Azores is now Invest 99L.
  3. GaWx
    Something may be forming near the Azores: From 8AM TWO: Eastern Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next couple of days while the system moves slowly over the eastern portion of the Subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
  4. GaWx
    The AAM is now up to +3.7 and has a good chance to be off the chart tomorrow!
  5. GaWx
    The mean global AAM based on this is not much above 0…+0.5 at most, not at all jibing with the Sep 17th +3.3. I don’t get it.
  6. GaWx
    Indeed, the weighted avg of your graph, which looks like it is only ~+1.25 to 1.5, doesn’t at all jibe with the image below, which shows it ~+3.3:
  7. GaWx
    12Z UKMET: again says no Gulf TC
  8. GaWx
    It still does have a system / vorticity breaking off of the CAG 130'ish hours into the 6Z run, it just fails to develop a fully fledged TC and bring that into the GOM. That could just as easily come back on the 12z today. Again, chaotic. Though, yes, it also breaks off vorticity and develops a hurricane late in the run. Meh, these simulations will remain complete choas until something actually resolves. If anything can be taken from these runs at this point, it's to say we should have a warbling surface trough gyre establish itself by this weekend over central America and we just need to watch for any pieces of energy and vorticity that may break off on either side of the landmass (EPAC or WCARIB) for potential development over the next few weeks. The MJO is heading toward favorable phases for TCG at this time of year, which Joe Bastardi has been appropriately emphasizing in his call for activity:
  9. GaWx
    Despite the Euro having something in the Gulf late, ironically the crazy GFS has no Gulf TC on its 6Z for the 1st run since way back at 18Z of 9/14! It just has one moving just N of Cuba (not in Gulf) at 384.
  10. GaWx
    The off again, on again UKMET is now off again with a Gulf TC fwiw.
  11. GaWx
    5th CFSv2 AAM run in a row with an extreme/historic level of 4+ being progged starting Sep 19th! It looks like it’s going to actually happen, folks! My inner weenie is genuinely excited:
  12. GaWx
    Per Eric Webb’s table, 1925-6 trimonthlies peaked at +1.3.
  13. GaWx
    The E US heat of Sept 2026 is somewhat similar to the intense E US heat of another El Niño Sept, that of record breaking 1925.
  14. GaWx
    This chart agrees with your data that the minimum has passed due to increases during the last week: 2026 is now back to ~175K sq km above the 2013-24 avg for Sept 15th, which is the best in relation to that avg in about a month. It’s now per this chart >800K higher than it was on 9/15/2020! 2020 didn’t reach yesterday’s level til ~Oct 5th! The cold Arctic N of 80N during summer very likely helped:
  15. GaWx
    Thanks. I agree 100% with the above analysis as of Sept 13th MTD suggesting Sept of 2026 at GSO would (assuming the model projection is in the ballpark of reality of course) obliterate 2019’s 76.4F! Update: Sept 1-15 is at 80.0, which is consistent with the graph. But FYI regarding GSO’s warmest Septembers on record: 1921 at 78.2 and 1925 at 77.9 were warmer than 3rd place’s 2019 at 76.4. Even so: if I look at projections for these projections for the 2nd half of September and assuming they’re in the ballpark of reality, GSO would even be flirting with 1921’s 78.2! The projection I ran was 78.1, which would obliterate 2019’s 76.4. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah
  16. GaWx
    After having a central Gulf TD late on yesterday’s 12Z per the quoted post and then not on the 0Z, today’s 12Z UKMET at the identical time (18Z on 9/21) has a TD form albeit in the E Gulf rather than C Gulf and with it moving very slowly WNW just like yesterday’s run had: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 26.8N 84.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.09.2026 132 26.6N 84.0W 1008 21 1200UTC 22.09.2026 144 27.0N 84.7W 1008 20 0000UTC 23.09.2026 156 27.1N 84.7W 1008 25 1200UTC 23.09.2026 168 27.2N 85.4W 1006 31
  17. GaWx
    9/15 12Z CFSv2 consistent with 0Z run having AAM on Sep 19th go to a historical extreme level (+4+):
  18. GaWx
    Chuck, I’m thinking that the reason the 2m anomalies aren’t as impressive as the H5 anomalies is probably that there’s a lot of Atlantic origin moist and cooler air in the 2m mix as opposed to drier and hotter land based air. Opinions?
  19. GaWx
    What’s this on the 12Z UKMET? For the first time, it has a TC (TD) in the C Gulf late in the run with it moving slowly WNW and strengthening: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 25.0N 90.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.09.2026 156 25.0N 90.4W 1008 23 1200UTC 22.09.2026 168 25.5N 91.7W 1005 31
  20. GaWx
    Check out this insanity: the latest 3 day mean CFSv2 has not just the most negative H5 anomalies of DJFM in March but even the absolutes are the most negative! And it’s been that way on a good # of 3 day means! Dec: highest H5 absolutes and anomalies of DJFM: March: lowest H5 absolutes and anomalies of DJFM as they steadily cool from Dec to March! The absolutes for March are 5-15 dm lower than that for Dec over most of the E US! Does this look reasonable? The 2m absolutes aren’t the coldest though although they’re not far off in some portions. I couldn’t find a Nino with the coldest absolutes of the winter in March though I found many with a solidly cold March. The only winters on record with the coldest absolutes of NDJFM being March in the E US overall are 1890, 1932, and 1960 (all non-Nino). I guess we’re due fwiw.
  21. GaWx
    Compare these to Sep ‘26 warmest JAMSTEC peak period (OND) SSTa longitude of 120-125W, which is between Euro’s 110W and CANSIPS’ 145W. It will be interesting to see which verifies the closest. Do you have a prediction for the warmest longitude at the progged OND peak? Between these 3 model progs, Euro 110W, JAMSTEC 120-125W, and CANSIPS 145W, which do you think will end up the closest?
  22. GaWx
    Latest (0Z of Sep 15th) CFSv2 AAM forecast, which is already at a very high >+3, is like yesterday progging an off the charts extreme/historic? +4+ starting by Sep 19th (earliest in the forecast I’ve ever seen) and lasting at least through Sep 24th:
  23. GaWx
    JAMSTEC Sept ‘26 Nino 3.4 forecast (this is NOT relative): mean is stronger than recent CFSv2 (though CFSv2 updates more recent since their updates are much more frequent) and mean cools more slowly, too, especially into Jan:
  24. GaWx
    ^How well did Jamstec’s May forecast for JJA verify in the CONUS? May ‘26 Jamstec forecast for summer ‘26: Actual for summer ‘26: Jamstec forecast excellent in E US; overall CONUS pattern excellent with warmest in SW US and coolest Midwest although it wasn’t quite warm enough in sone of the SW US:
  25. GaWx
    Here’s my analysis of the new Jamstec forecast for winter: hint SE cold lovers will enjoy this as it is progging the coldest winter in the SE/Mid-South since 2014-5!
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