GaWx

At my location, the last 10 days have had an enormous contrast between the first 5 days and the last 5: 7/9-13: 6.35” total/rain every day with lots of street flooding and some flooding on my property/lots of standing water 7/14-18: only light amounts a couple of days totaling ~0.10”

Interesting dichotomy between the warm neutral subsurface and the cold neutral surface:

Agreed. But if it turns back down by the end of this month, the record NOAA PDO low of October 2024’s -3.80 would be in danger. For MTD, it’s likely in that vicinity now. That table goes way back to 1854.

Indeed, it’s not surprisingly bounced 0.50 from the extreme low of -3.45 of 7/8/25. This -2.95 WCS PDO translates to ~-3.75 NOAA PDO. NOAA’s dip on 7/8/25 was likely sub -4!

For the first time in weeks, the latest Euro Weeklies actually has a week forecasted to be slightly above the 2005-2024 average in the ATL basin. It’s for Aug 11-17. It has that week at 110% of 2005-24 avg: Just two runs ago it had that week at only 60% of 2005-24 avg: The highlighted areas have the highest chance (5%+) for a TC to be within 300 km:

Maybe this will help some: https://stormtrack.org/threads/highest-500-mb-height-in-history.8224/#:~:text=The source for 1994 onward,22 had no 600 line.

It should be lowered to 0%. I consider this to be a big fail for the ICON, which of course is good news in this case.

I’m surprised it’s still at 30%. That seems high to me: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Northern Gulf Coast (AL93): Satellite, surface, and radar data indicate that the broad low pressure area over northern Gulf is located just south of the coast of Mississippi. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and located mainly to the west and southwest of the center. Some development could occur before the system moves westward into Louisiana later today or tonight, although the chances of the system developing into a tropical depression are low. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Beven

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93): Recent satellite wind data, in combination with surface and radar observations, indicate the broad area of low pressure located over the far northern portion of the Gulf remains quite disorganized. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced well west of the broad center. While some additional development of this system remains possible over the next 12-24 hours, its current structure suggests its chances of developing into a tropical depression before it reaches the Louisiana coast later today are decreasing. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93): Surface and radar observations indicate that a westward-moving broad area of low pressure continues to be located near the coast of the western part of the Florida Panhandle. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and located south to southwest of the center. This system is forecast to continue moving westward across the northern portion of the Gulf tonight, and is expected to reach the Louisiana coast by Thursday. If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or so before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida tonight and continuing for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Papin

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93): Surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure continues to move westward across the Florida Panhandle and is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity mainly south of its center. This system is forecast to continue moving westward, and could emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to north-central portion of the Gulf, reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thursday. If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could still form over the next couple of days before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through through today. Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast beginning late today and continuing through Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

A pretty fast moving small shower has moved NW from offshore to here on the NE side of Invest 93L. There may be more to come within the next couple of hours. Edit: more quick showers came through hre in the early AM of 7/16, but I got nothing more than a few hundredths of an inch.

Today had a very tropical feel and look here thanks to the deep onshore flow to the north of Invest 93L coming in from several hundreds of miles offshore. How deep? It was at least to way up at 200 mb, which is near 40,000 feet! And this is expected to continue for much of the rest of this week. It is fairly rare that this far north experiences that deep of a tropical flow for that long of an uninterrupted period. This deep tropical flow: -gave us a constant pleasant ESE 10-15 mph breeze with gusts to over 20 -wind coming off the ocean kept the highs in the BN upper 80s but also kept dewpoints in the mid 70s -the skies much of the day had a tropical paradise look of towering cumulus coming off of the ocean mixed with deep blue -isolated showers came off of the ocean moving at a brisk pace and tended to diminish as they went more inland (I had no rainfall today)

It’s had its really good moments for sure.

Perhaps the strong ICON runs from yesterday and the day before were because they were latching into the further SSW mid level circ.

12Z ICON is coming in even a little weaker than the 6Z and possibly slightly further north. It has essentially no LLC of significance.

Yesterday (7/14) was the first day in 6 without measurable rainfall at my location.

I recently did an analysis that showed that mid July season to date ACE has little predictive value for remainder of season ACE. Any correlation of season to date ACE for around this time of the season to ACE remaining in the season is minimal. So, it currently being lower than the normal low average ACE to date implies neither low, near average, nor high ACE to come the rest of the season. I’d say the same thing if ACE were currently high like it was in 2024. In other words, it essentially doesn’t tell us much of anything one way or the other.

6Z models, including formerly bullish ICON, rather unimpressive though UKMET at 1009 mb is a bit stronger than 0Z’s 1013 though nothing like the 18Z’s 1004 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93): Satellite and radar data indicate that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low pressure located just offshore of the east coast of Florida remains disorganized. This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week. Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci

0Z Euro: pulled back slightly from the somewhat more bullish 18Z but still fairly similar to it

^Followup on UKMET: -12Z had no TC/lowest SLP 1010 mb -18Z had a TC/lowest SLP 1004 mb -0Z is back to no TC/lowest SLP 1013 mb

The 18Z UKMET, which shows a 1004 TC at hour 66 at the tip of the SE LA boot (see below), is 6 mb stronger than the 12Z UKMET’s 1010 mb at hour 72. The 12Z run was too weak to be classified as a TC.

As thread starter, you can edit the title as often as you wish. Just go to the first post here, click on the “…” and then choose “edit”.

Recon is scheduled for tomorrow I believe.