GaWx

I’ll compare 2026 to others. Here’s 2026 with its first strong -SOI period not til days 98-102: 2026 98 1010.27 1010.30 -17.45 2026 99 1009.30 1011.45 -32.74 2026 100 1009.19 1011.45 -33.53 2026 101 1009.56 1011.00 -27.62 2026 102 1010.69 1010.75 -17.67 1) 1994: already had strong -SOI days 75-90: 1994 75 1009.95 1009.25 -16.33 1994 76 1011.21 1009.00 -9.08 1994 77 1010.30 1008.65 -11.78 1994 78 1009.25 1009.30 -19.92 1994 79 1009.33 1009.25 -19.32 1994 80 1010.65 1008.60 -9.86 1994 81 1011.61 1009.45 -9.32 1994 82 1012.00 1010.25 -11.30 1994 83 1010.73 1009.80 -15.23 1994 84 1009.74 1010.30 -22.37 1994 85 1011.13 1011.00 -19.08 1994 86 1012.49 1011.90 -16.86 1994 87 1012.66 1011.95 -16.27 1994 88 1012.31 1012.15 -18.90 1994 89 1012.79 1011.85 -15.19 1994 90 1012.12 1011.85 -18.36 2) 1997: already had strong -SOI days 81-90: 1997 81 1011.33 1011.55 -20.69 1997 82 1009.53 1010.25 -23.08 1997 83 1009.46 1010.35 -23.92 1997 84 1009.17 1010.95 -28.17 1997 85 1009.38 1011.65 -30.50 1997 86 1008.01 1011.85 -38.04 1997 87 1007.55 1011.15 -36.91 1997 88 1010.10 1010.60 -22.07 1997 89 1011.92 1011.00 -15.24 1997 90 1011.97 1010.55 -12.85 3) 2002: already had strong -SOI days 72-80 2002 72 1010.71 1012.50 -28.24 2002 73 1010.25 1011.40 -25.18 2002 74 1011.11 1011.10 -19.62 2002 75 1010.70 1010.90 -20.63 2002 76 1009.60 1010.35 -23.27 2002 77 1010.04 1010.55 -22.13 2002 78 1012.20 1010.55 -11.78 2002 79 1013.25 1010.20 -5.07 2002 80 1010.45 1008.90 -12.26 4) 2004: already had strong -SOI days 87-97 2004 87 1010.56 1010.65 -20.11 2004 88 1009.84 1011.25 -26.42 2004 89 1009.20 1011.25 -29.49 2004 90 1008.64 1011.75 -34.56 2004 91 1007.47 1011.75 -40.16 2004 92 1006.10 1012.30 -61.94 2004 93 1005.85 1012.25 -63.38 2004 94 1006.74 1011.55 -51.92 2004 95 1005.93 1011.20 -55.23 2004 96 1007.71 1011.00 -40.96 2004 97 1008.59 1010.60 -31.73 5) 2014: already had strong -SOI days 73-80 2014 73 1010.53 1009.55 -14.98 2014 74 1009.38 1010.70 -25.99 2014 75 1008.55 1009.75 -25.42 2014 76 1009.09 1010.40 -25.94 2014 77 1009.21 1009.75 -22.26 2014 78 1007.89 1010.20 -30.73 2014 79 1007.49 1009.30 -28.34 2014 80 1009.69 1008.25 -12.78 6) 2015: already had strong -SOI days 67-79: 2015 67 1007.50 1008.10 -22.55 2015 68 1008.11 1008.65 -22.26 2015 69 1008.73 1008.20 -17.14 2015 70 1009.33 1008.65 -16.42 2015 71 1009.24 1008.45 -15.89 2015 72 1009.91 1007.55 -8.38 2015 73 1010.42 1007.65 -6.42 2015 74 1010.41 1008.90 -12.45 2015 75 1006.90 1010.15 -35.23 2015 76 1005.66 1009.05 -35.90 2015 77 1008.13 1008.65 -22.16 2015 78 1010.35 1009.55 -15.84 2015 79 1008.79 1011.20 -31.21 7) Even the non-Nino 2012, which psyched out the Euro, had an earlier strong negative period: 2012 90 1011.39 1009.80 -12.06 2012 91 1009.90 1010.70 -23.50 2012 92 1010.45 1011.70 -26.25 2012 93 1012.60 1012.20 -14.35 2012 94 1012.53 1013.55 -24.59 2012 95 1011.19 1013.45 -33.53 2012 96 1010.10 1012.15 -32.01 2012 97 1009.94 1011.85 -31.01 2012 98 1009.98 1011.60 -28.91 2012 99 1010.16 1011.65 -27.98 2012 100 1011.50 1011.45 -16.87 OTOH, 2026’s strong -SOI is ahead of 2006, 2009, 2018, and 2023.

Chris, 1. The writeup you linked us to specifies what we already knew: the U.S. now incorporates RONI for its official ENSO updates vs the Euro still not doing so. So, to approximate RONI based on the current difference, ~0.5C should be subtracted from the Euro progs since they are still predicting a straight ONI. 2. The following shows that although the Euro’s too warm ASO ONI prog was highest for April progs in 2017 (+1.4), it was also significantly too warm in 2025 (+0.8), 2022 (+0.7), 2021 (+0.6), 2020 (+0.8), 2014 (+1.2), and 2012 (+0.6). Moreover, misses to the cold side were much less frequent and smaller. So, based on averaging out the misses, a notable warm bias is evident although it isn’t as large when El Niño actually verifies. None of this means ONI will definitely verify colder than the April Euro prog, but rather to not be surprised if it verifies several tenths colder based on a bias corrected ONI prog:

Today from JB: any comments? Is he making sense saying that in the cold season it’s harder to get record cold further N?? That doesn’t sound right. What am I missing? Aren’t SDs/variances larger at higher latitudes? See what I bolded below. OTOH, due to GW, if he had said it’s harder to get record cold than record heat, I’d agree. So, in that regard, much of AK/Canada having its coldest March on record in this 2-3F warmer world certainly is quite remarkable. From JB: Comment on the March Hype Wave “Yes it was a heat wave and for the US in March it was unprecedented in times of reliable records But countering it was Canada and especially Alaska which was brutally cold This winter (2025-26) was the coldest on record in Fairbanks, surpassing the previous record set in 1965-66. Now think about this as far as the greater deviation The colder it gets, the harder it is to get colder in the cold season. If you have an extremely cold place, and Fairbanks is a longstanding site. So this is remarkable. The deviation from normal both high and low in NAMER was about the same. But at lower temperatures its easier to get it that much warmer than it is at colder temps. So the cold in Canada was more impressive than the warmth in the US as far as competing against the averages, if one is considering the fact that in cold areas in their cold season, its harder to get it that cold over a 30 day period” However, later he says this, which I agree with since variances in summer are not as large as March: “Now lets look at the March map again off the PSL site. you have got areas 12 above normal in the time of the year when its much easier to get that warm, then when you are at the hottest time of the year, pulling this off like 1934,1936 is much harder to do.” ——————— PHX was 6.5 warmer than any other Mar on record whereas Fairbanks was only 2.4 colder than any other Mar on record. But, 2.4 colder in a warmer world might be about as impressive. Opinions?

My water bills are looking to be outrageously high, but I have no choice if I want to keep the grass healthy.

UKMET has been one of the better models in recent years. It’s going ~+2.05 for Sep ONI and would likely rise a few more tenths from there. Then take off ~0.5 to convert to RONI. So, ~+1.5-1.6 C RONI in Sept and rising per UKMET. Euro ONI is just over +2.2 in Sept and rising, but it has tended to verify too warm although not as much warm bias verified on average in actual El Niños. This all suggests to me a mid to high grade strong RONI peak as of now. I’ll continue to update.

That’s the coldest March for Canada, overall, since 2002, which is below:

I’ve been sprinkling the yards recently. The drought in this area and especially to the SW is about the most severe in the entire SE with widespread D3 (extreme) here to D4 (exceptional) in SC GA to NC FL. See map below. Although it’s unpredictable, the good news is that a strong El Niño appears to be on the way. If that verifies, much of the SE should see wet relief by November based on history and long range models:

Yeah, that’s what I have. I find it amazing that there were none for the 68 winters between 1888-9 and 1957-8. I wonder whether or not this is random, especially considering there were 7 over the subsequent 68 winters 1957-8 through 2024-5!

Add to those using a peak of 2+ RONI for 1950+: 1888-9, 1957-8, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1991-2

Nov: NMME is warmer than its prior run and much more E based than Cansips Modoki: Nov SSTa NMME latest run: Nov SSTa NMME prior run: Nov SSTa Cansips

The 4/23 ONI fcasts: BoM much too warm and Euro/CFS/UK somewhat too warm. Actual JAS +1.37 1. BoM: +2.17 for JAS or 0.80 too warm 2. Euro: +1.57 for JAS or 0.20 too warm 3. CFSv2: +1.56 for JAS or 0.19 too warm 4. UKMET: +1.58 for JAS or 0.21 too warm OTOH, the avg of all 17 dynamicals was +1.33, which was almost perfect. ONI history: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt 4/23 ONI forecasts: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2023-April-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

This tweet is deceptive. I’m surprised the smart pro met. Ethan said this. Of course the SSTs are significantly warmer than 29 years ago due to GW. But you know that the measure of Nino strength isn’t SST but rather SSTa. Relative SSTa: 02APR1997 1.1 -0.3 0.1 1.1 01APR2026 0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 So, per relative anomalies, not only is 2026 not warmer than 1997, it is 0.5 cooler in 1+2, 0.3 cooler in 3.4, and 0.8 cooler in 4! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt @mitchnick

Also, there was 2/9-10/1973 and 3/24/1983 in large parts of the SE. Regardless of snow or not, the relatively predictable thing about strong El Niños is their tendency to be wet Nov-Mar in most of the SE.

Webb exhibits at times a tone that borders on being over the top to get attention. “Hilariously strong”?

I fully get that 1877-8 is as strong as any El Niño on record based on Nino 3.4 as Eric Webb’s and other tables show. But it’s the H5 maps that were shocking to see since I had never seen any H5 maps before the late 1940s. Now after reading what you posted above, I realize this 1877-8 H5 is no more than the equivalent of a wild educated guess as all it is based on is surface data as that’s all the only data they have.

Being that the current OISST dailies suggest that RONI is likely ~-0.3 to -0.4, it is a very tall order to get the full April averaged RONI to rise all of the way to +0.6, which is what this BoM run has. We’ll see what the very strong WWB/TC triplets are able to do. The rate of April warming would probably have to be well beyond record highs to get April RONI up to +0.6. The daily RONIs may have to approach +1.5 by April 30th!! I don’t see that being realistic at all.

Makes perfect sense to me.From JB:April 5, 2026The forecast numbers have been taken way down.The Canadian model has been thrown out.The European indicates a powerful El Niño and a negative AMO "look".The closest analog is 2015.The impact forecast is a roll of the dice.Impacts will likely be below normal and scattered.There is always the threat of one (un)lucky punch.Early season Gulf or SE system a concernThe Western Pacific will take up the Global slack.Eastern Pacific Mexican higher impact season possibleThe forecast numbers for the 2026 seasonTotal storms: 9-13Hurricanes: 3-5Major Hurricanes: 1-2Landfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2Impact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3ACE Index: 85-105The closest analog is 2015

In 2023, the same BoM model also had it getting to +2.4 at the same time (Sept) as per snowman’s post at the bottom of this post. Here was that 4/8/23 run: But “it” back then was ONI, which like now was then ~0.5 higher than RONI. So, it implicitly was predicting RONI only at +1.9. Thus, the current BoM prog on an apples to apples basis is progging 0.5 warmer than what it had 3 years ago. But also keep in mind that the ‘23 BoM turned out to be significantly too warm for the ONI. In Sept, ONI verified to be only +1.64 meaning a large bust of +0.76! RONI was only +1.15. If this BoM run were to bust as badly to the top warm side, the Sept RONI would be at +1.64.

Thanks. Do you have a link to the source for the map Chris posted?

Chris, I’m curious. How is it possible to come up with even approximate geopotential hts for way back in 1877-8?

I ended up getting the better part of 1/2” of much needed rain from thunderstorms late this afternoon. That was the best rain in quite awhile!

I became aware of coral reef bleaching with the terrible event that affected the reef near the FL Keys in the summer of 2023, when there was a marine heatwave. I clearly remember that the heating of the waters there was made worse by a lack of rainfall/clouds. I think winds were mainly pretty light. Even not so shallow waters near the coral warmed into the low to mid 90s! This was like the SW US heatwave. There were these unique conditions that when superimposed on overall already warmer than avg waters due to GW favored heating the waters to record high levels. I posted about this many times in the warming oceans thread of this CC section. This extreme warmth lasted for many weeks, which was much too long for the coral to avoid bleaching, when the stressed coral expels the beneficial algae that it feeds on. The good news is that scientists supposedly moved portions of most, if not just about every, species to safety into much better conditions allowing them to thrive and prevent extinction. https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/confronting-floridas-coral-collapse-153304/ Good news was that 2024 and 2025 FL Keys waters weren’t nearly as warm since the conditions favoring the marine heatwave weren’t present. I also read that there are some coral species in other parts of the world where normal SSTs are warmer that tolerate much warmer temperatures, which will help as the oceans continue to warm since some of these species could be placed elsewhere to help combat the bleaching problem. Ultimately though, the hope of course is for oceans to stop warming. https://eos.org/articles/some-corals-are-more-heat-resistant-than-thought

To get the strongest Nino in 140 years, the ONI would probably need to get up to ~3.0 to allow RONI to exceed the 2.5 RONI peak of 1982-3 and thus become the strongest since 1887-8. Keep in mind the Euro longterm warm bias that could possibly be causing its April prog to be too warm.

Happy Easter to the forum members! Hopefully it’s a joyous one. We have the successful rescue in Iran of a downed U.S. airman to help celebrate it. Also, Happy Passover! One more warm humid day before a several day cooldown with highs in the upper 60s or low 70s. But before that, I’m hoping for some good rainfall amounts later today and this evening as it is extremely dry here.

Thanks, Charlie. 1. Isn’t the range of science based predictions of the amount of GW in the very longterm in a pretty wide range as opposed to a narrow range? My understanding is that he’s near the lower end of that range. 2. In addition to the warming effect of increased CO2, there are other factors that could come into play. Spencer believes that there are negative feedback factors that will ultimately limit the amount of GW compared to most model projections. That’s supposedly why he’s near the lower end of the range. 3. He said it MAY even be beneficial not that it would definitely be beneficial. There’s the potential benefit of larger global crop sizes due to a greener planet resulting from a combo of longer growing seasons where they’re currently grown, an increase in the amount of crops grown in higher latitudes, and the increased CO2 photosynthesis effect. Also, cold has killed a good bit more than heat from what I’ve read. However, I do realize that eventually deaths from heat will rise enough to potentially start killing more than cold though that would likely still be a long ways off if that were to happen. Could these good things outweigh the bad things and make it net beneficial? I’m not saying that but it could be debated. Personally, I’m worried about rising sea levels. 4. A greener Earth could be one of the negative feedbacks that Spencer has cited since greener means cooler highs such as has occurred in the Midwest. In addition, drought frequency in the Midwest has dropped since the 1990s.