GaWx

Per JB this morning for the N Hem this June: “In the Northern Hemisphere, we have had the average number of named storms. But now look at the ACE statistic. We are less than 1/3. Never have we had an average ACE of only 2/storm in June The average in June is 6.5. It's boggling what is going on in the WPAC, where we are at 10% of average with over 10% of their ace done.” —————- and for the Atlantic basin specifically, he said this: “The Atlantic naming were a complete joke. Isla Lobos where the so called center of Barry crossed had a half inch of rain and a gust to 22. Tampico had gusts to 31 and over 2 inches of rain and the center crossed close to them Andrea was a stratocu swirl But in a way I am glad they got named. the .6 between the 2 of them have established the all time record for weakest back to back storms at only .3 per storm”

Up to 0.64 ACE for season to date Storm Active Winds Pressure ACE Tropical Storm ANDREA 18z Jun 21 to 12z Jun 25 35kt 1014mb 0.24 Tropical Storm BARRY 00z Jun 27 to 00z Jun 30 40kt 1006mb 0.4 Season Total 18z Jun 21 to 00z Jun 30 40kt 1006mb 0.64

I guess 2025 may be the year of the ham sandwich! Technically though this may be more like a Rueben due to it being a threat to land. Regardless, congrats@BarryStantonGBP, for having a storm named after you!

@snowman19can’t stand cold/snowy weenie posts. He’s made it clear that that’s the main reason he posts like he does. What kind of winter he actually prefers may be irrelevant. I’m not a fan of weenie posts of ANY kind. Thus I try my best to avoid posting like that. It’s not easy though due to human nature.

Not a dream. It would likely put a relative lid on instability in MDR if it’s warmer to the N keeping it less active there than otherwise would be. We’ll see if temp pattern persists and how active MDR ends up.

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/ Click on 2nd thumbnail from top.

All across the MDR SSTs are ~1C cooler than to the N! This if it persists should keep a relative lid on TCs in the tropics themselves this year.

The PDO continues to plunge: The NOAA PDO is likely pushing -3.5!

A dry gust front (outflow boundary) that showed up well on radar moved SW into this area at midnight. Then at ~12:45AM, a small area of thunderstorms well to the E of the main area moved SW into this area producing only a few rumbles of thunder and light rain, which continues. Oddly enough, after blinking off and on ~20 times, my power finally went out ~1AM despite my not noticing a big gust of wind or any nearby CTG lightning. Edit: Power came back on just before 1:55AM.

It was Solar/NAO. What I found is that the only 6 sub -0.25 DJF NAOs since 1979-80 were all within ~two years of a cycle minimum and that every cycle minimum since the mid 1980s has had either 1 or 2 -NAO winters. 1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, 2020-1 Will we get two -NAO winters within the very late 2020s to early 2030s?

Upgraded back up to ham sandwich: Special Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL830 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Special outlook issued to update AL90 formation chances1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):Satellite images indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized in association with a small gale-force low-pressure system located about 900 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. This system will likely become a short-lived tropical storm later today before more hostile environmental conditions end its opportunity for development by this evening. The low is forecast to move northeastward at around 15 to 20 mph while remaining over the open central Atlantic. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The BLT is still hanging in there in the new TWO with still a 40% chance thanks to new thunderstorms: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped on the north side of a gale-force low-pressure system located about 700 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable, and further resurgence of the thunderstorm activity could still result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm. By later today, the low is expected to encounter more hostile environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development. The system is forecast to move northeastward at around 15 to 20 mph while remaining over the open central Atlantic. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. *Edit 8:10AM: chance raised back to 50% for a TD or TS at 8AM

Down to 40%. So, it has diminished from a ham sandwich to a BLT.

The ham sandwich still has a chance to become a TD through the day but I've got to tell you that it is a real ham: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): Satellite images indicate that disorganized showers and thunderstorms are displaced to the east of an area of low pressure located about 600 miles east of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are still marginally favorable for further development, and an increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression today. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development. The system is forecast to move northeastward around 10 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Hagen —————- Though sheared, the LLC is pretty tight and may allow this to be upgraded to a TD or even TS Andrea later today.

The ham sandwich may get named: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization overnight with an area of the low pressure located about 500 miles east of Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived wind data also indicates the system has a well-defined surface circulation with maximum sustained winds of 30-35 mph. While environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, only a small increase in organization and persistence of the current shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm, as soon as later today. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of development, the system is forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

This, which has been designated as the first “ham sandwich” storm since 2023, is liable to be declared a TD shortly with a TS not out of the question.

MTD June NOAA PDO is likely at ~~-2.3 and full June could easily be down to ~-2.5.

The highs in the area were 93-95. But that tells only some of the story as the dewpoints/RH made it feel like ~100-102. I had to go into a house whose AC is broken. It was 91 inside and this was at 8PM. I was soaking wet within 5 minutes!

Check out Nino 1+2 warming up substantially again:

Check out Nino 1+2 warming up substantially again:

This means that the NOAA daily PDO is likely back down to the -2.5 to -3 range.

Regarding wondering if it was going into a big El Niño, what year are you referring to?

We had another popup heavy shower just now. Likely <0.25”. I ended up with only ~0.15”.

An area of pop up thunderstorms, some heavy, is moving in to this area from the SW this evening. Edit: the overnight total turned out to be an impressive ~1.3”. MTD through AM of 6/18: a wet ~6.65”.

Latest 20-60W/10-20N OHC, while much cooler than 2023-4, is still near the very warm 2013-24 avg: But Gulf is warmer than 2023 and not too much cooler than 2024: