GaWx

My lowest so far is ~lower 40s.

This has the ens 10 mb mean zonal wind as low as only +14 to +15 in late Nov (prior runs’ lowest were +18) and is at least tied for the highest % of members of any run so far this season with a very early season major SSW (reversal) at 25%+.

This is just one place that flooded from extreme rains coming off the nearby ridges, the well inland Mandeville to the E of Santa Cruz (which also flooded) and 20 miles E of the worst devastation from surge and winds:

Unfortunately you were right about Jamaica as it’s now up to 28 and probably still climbing as they find more bodies:

New CFS forecast for Indian Ocean Nov: still -IOD (W IO less E IO) Dec: rising quickly toward neutral, which would be consistent with climo since -IOD typically is already peaking or has already peaked @snowman19

Hey Mitch, I’d love to see it! But a huge grain of salt is advised. One year ago the CANSIPS was forecasting a Modoki Nino for now, about which I posted last year and got excited. Obviously, that failed miserably and I’ve learned from it. One year ago, CANSIPS forecasted this for Oct of 2025: Compare that to the new CANSIPS for Oct of 2026: the entire globe looks so similar that it almost looks like a copy and paste although it’s slightly warmer in Nino regions. Hopefully this new CANSIPS for next Oct won’t also verify way off! @Carvers Gap@donsutherland1@Daniel Boone

Here’s a WxBell CFS control Jan map (originally posted today by an unknown person, who added his own comments) that was reposted today at another BB by someone who got this in his FB feed (i.e., this is NOT a WxBell post..it is someone else posting a WxBell map with his own commentary): Here was my response: This is a control run (18Z of yesterday) of the WxBell CFS being forecasted out 2 months. Even calling this map less than worthless is being kind. Keep in mind that these are in C, not F. So, it gives the majority of the middle 1/3 of the US a record obliterating cold Jan. To show how silly this run is, it has Chicago at an obliterating alltime record breaking cold Jan of 14C/25F BN, which is -1F! The coldest Jan (and any month for that matter) on record back to 1873 is +10.1F (1977). So, this CFS control run is forecasting Chicago to have a Jan that is 11F colder than any month they’ve had during the last 153 years! Now here’s the very next CFS control run, the 0Z 11/2 run: Instead of mid-America having a record obliterating cold Jan, it has much warmer than normal in much of the same area! It has Chicago only 3 F AN because the WxBell CFS maps always show a funky cold spot centered on Lake Michigan (funky WxBell CFS algos is another issue for another time that I’ve posted about before). So, it has Chicago at an AN +27F vs -1F on the prior run or 28F warmer lmao! @donsutherland1

Thanks, Chris. I forgot that your analysis of Dec NYC area snow is just for La Niña winters.

Since this 10/28/25 post, I got another 0.05” to give me a total of 2.80” of rainfall in October. That’s only modestly below normal. This area ended up 2F BN, coolest Oct since 2022 and second coolest Oct since 2011.

We’ll see. Latest MJO forecasts: 1. GEFS, which has been doing much better than EPS as is often the case in this part of the diagram (10/20-3 GEFS runs had today in moderate 5/6 while EPS was a fail with inside circle): slowly headed to strong 6 in direction of strong 7 2. EPS: headed to moderate 7:

One year ago today the daily WCS PDO was ~-2.25. On 10/31/25, it was -1.29:

Credit to Chris and Don for bringing this strong correlation to the board’s attention: Whether Dec snow at NYC is 3”+ has been a good indicator of how Jan+ has done since 1980-1: -a whopping 23 of 28 (82%) Dec’s with <3” had <22” Jan+ -but only 4 of 17 (24%) Dec’s with 3”+ had <22” Jan+ So, watch Dec NYC snow closely! Correlation didn’t work before 1980. Anyone know why? @donsutherland1@bluewave

Thanks. I had just seen that at https://cyclonicwx.com/climatology/ But that looks suspiciously too high as NHC has only 34.7: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2025&basin=atl

Followup: This was the 11/30/24 CANSIPS fcast for last winter, similar in much of the N Hem including even colder/coldest 1981-2010 anomalies in N Hem again centered over W Lakes: What verified? It did well in most of the Conus but winter verified to be NN vs 81-00 in W Lakes/upper MW. The coldest was to the W in W Dakotas/SE MT, where Cansips was much too warm. So, is it possible that the CANSIPS has a cold bias in the W Great Lakes? @donsutherland1@mitchnick@SnowGoose69 *Edit: corrected for 2 typos

The new CANSIPS for DJF is the 9th in a row with the coldest winter anomalies (vs colder 1981-2010 than 1991-2020) in the N Hem centered over the W. Great Lakes: Any thoughts?

Here are before and after SSTs to see how much Melissa cooled the ocean on and near its track: 10/24/25: 10/30/25: So, it cooled only ~1C/2F around Jamaica/E Cuba (from slightly over 30C to near or slightly over 29C). Unfortunately, that wasn’t nearly enough to keep Melissa from exploding. Much of the area around the Bahamas also cooled some (perhaps ~0.5C/1F) but the full cooling may have to wait til the 10/31 SST map. Also, Melissa wasn’t as strong and was moving much more quickly through the Bahamas thus likely meaning less cooling influence. In contrast, note that most of the Gulf and far W Caribbean cooled hardly at all, if any, as they were too far west to be cooled by Melissa.

Thank you, snowman. Y’all may find this interesting. Eric Webb just posted this at another BB after I asked him the same Q: There's lots of co-variability between ENSO and the IOD, and there's a positive correlation between ENSO & IOD intensity. Oth, when you try to isolate the influence of the IOD alone here in the context of weak to moderate La Ninas, this is what happens: The Nov-Dec 500mb & SLP difference composite of +IOD & -IOD years with weak to moderate La Niña captures some of the things we're currently seeing like the very extended Pacific Jet/+EPO, +PNA, and even perhaps the -SAM/-AAO. The NAO is completely different this year though. Then he posted this: This is what happens if you take that difference composite through the winter. The big takeaway I glean from this is the transition from an early winter +PNA type pattern to a canonical Nina look w/ a +NAM/AO is much sharper in these winters with a bigger -IOD in the preceding fall. Also, the classic Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism (SFM) pattern is more prominent in Feb-Mar in the -IOD years, which would hasten the development of +PMM in the spring and be more favorable for El Niño development later next year. ———— So, Webb and you may be in agreement at least to an extent.

Very strange! When you go to https://www.americanwx.com/bb/ do you see what the first screenshot I posted shows with “General Forecasting and Discussion” showing and not “Weather Forecasting and Discussion”?

What are you saying this very strong Oct -IOD is going to cause in December in the E US? What’s your prediction?

Bump: I don’t think it’s my imagination. I’ll start from the main page: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/ This is what I see, which is a change from how it had been for years: ——————— What is different is seeing “General Forecasting and Discussion” instead of seeing the following below “Tropical HQ”. —————— So, now one has to click on “General Forecasting and Discussion” as an extra step before only after that being able to click on “Weather Forecasting and Discussion”, which then leads to seeing this thread. Are any others seeing this change?

It has risen from 3 to 19 in Jamaica.

Is it my imagination or does it really take an extra click to get to this thread now?

Today’s Euro Weeklies update: 1) 4th run in a row with a very weak SPV late Nov/early Dec with today’s having ~25% of members with a very early major SSW, the highest yet of any run! 2) After having warmed up significantly in the E US the last 3 runs for most of November/early Dec from the cold Nov 2-9 and then mainly NN Nov 10-Dec 7 of the Oct 26 run, today’s has cooled back down notably for much of Nov 10-Dec 7 and is downright cold for the new week (Dec 8-14) with a solid -AO for Nov 24-Dec 14. Keep in mind that the Euro often has trouble seeing cold too far out. So, seeing BN all the way out at weeks 5-6 in today’s run is noteworthy and will be followed closely for future trends. 500 mb week 6: 2m temps week 6:

Today’s Euro Weeklies update: 1) 4th run in a row with a very weak SPV late Nov/early Dec with today’s having ~25% of members with a very early major SSW, the highest yet of any run! 2) After having warmed up significantly in the E US the last 3 runs for most of November/early Dec from the cold Nov 2-9 and then mainly NN Nov 10-Dec 7 of the Oct 26 run, today’s has cooled back down notably for much of Nov 10-Dec 7 and is downright cold for the new week (Dec 8-14) with a solid -AO for Nov 24-Dec 14. Keep in mind that the Euro often has trouble seeing cold too far out. So, seeing BN all the way out at weeks 5-6 in today’s run is noteworthy and will be followed closely for future trends: ————— Week six H5: Week five 2m temps: Week six 2m temps:

Yeah, that is slightly lower than this site shows, which is at 32.72 as of 18Z today: https://cyclonicwx.com/climatology/ This site had it at 31.9 as of 12Z today. So, it appears that cyclonicwx is higher due to being updated sooner. Melissa looks to total out at ~33.5-34 as it transitions to ET. This will end up as the 3rd highest Atlantic storm ACE on record for so late in the season behind only the massive (~60) ACE of the Nov. 1932 Cuba H and Mitch of 1998’s 35.9.