GaWx

My point is that the correlation of strength of left side MJO in spring and later El Nino peak is low. It doesn’t tell us much. I’m thinking low end strong RONI best chance as of now.

Many strong left side MJO in April/May didn’t go superstrong:

On the way to perhaps a healthy ~+1.7c RONI Modoki similar to 1957-8. Nice!

Cansips SON fwiw Modoki ~+2 in 3.4 (ONI), implying RONI ~~+1.5, with a peak ~+1.7 RONI in winter:

Upon further review, Cansips is progging a W to C based ~+2 to +2.2 ONI from SON through JFM. I’d assume that would mean ~+1.5 to +1.7 W to C based RONI. Nothing bad about that if it were to verify. But I’m taking it w/grain due to La Niña temp pattern, which doesn’t make sense per history.

What Chuck said. It has a healthy strength Nino, probably nearing or exceeding +1.5 ONI. That doesn’t as you know at all jibe with the La Ninaish temperature anomaly pattern it has for the US and Canada. Like I said, I’ve found no +1.0+ Nino winter anything close to the Ninalike configuration Cansips has out of 32 of them! Really weird and why I expect its overall Ninaish US temp. configuration to badly bust if a decent El Niño were to verify.

I’m looking for it to bust badly assuming El Niño verifies.

The new Cansips has winter anomalies significantly colder in the NE than the SE: For all of the Ninos peaking at +1.5+, not a single one going back at least to 1895-6 had a colder NE than SE anomaly wise! Not even one! These are the winters: 2023-4, 2015-6, 2009-10, 2002-3, 1997-8, 1991-2, 1987-8, 1986-7, 1982-3, 1972-3, 1965-6, 1957-8, 1940-1, 1930-1, 1925-6, 1918-9, 1902-3, 1899-00, and 1896-7. That’s 19 winters, a nice sample size suggesting the CANSIPS E US winter temp. anomalies and a strong El Niño prog aren’t at all jibing with history. Here is the aggregate of those 19 winters: Edit: Even going all of the way down to peaks of +1.0 yields the same result, no winter colder in NE than SE. That adds 13 more for a total sample size of 32! Here’s the average of the 13 moderates:

Followup: -Fairbanks ended up with its coldest DJFM on record with it at -13.4, colder than the previous coldest of -13.0, set in 1965-6. This is ~11F BN! -Fairbanks had its coldest March on record by a large margin, -9.0F. The prior coldest was -6.6F, set in 1959! -Anchorage had its coldest March on record with +13.4F. The prior coldest was +14.0, set in 1959. Fairbanks and Barrow data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afg Anchorage data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afc Despite most of Alaska being quite cold relative to normal, the Arctic (80+N) had one of its warmest Marches on record: It turns out that Barrow, whose normals are ~11F colder than Fairbanks in DJFM, was warmer than Fairbanks for DJFM by ~4F averaged out as they averaged ~4F warmer than their normal! Barrow was warmer than Fairbanks in Dec, Jan, and March this winter.

1. The Euro did well with ONI in 2023, one of their best performances. But they also really did have a notable warm bias as was repeatedly shown with actual verifications vs progs over a near 20 year period, a large sample size. I spent lots of time researching and then showing this. A bias of any kind doesn’t at all mean that in a minority of cases verifications can’t be good. You know that. Keep in mind the very big too warm misses of 2012, 2014, and 2017 busts, for example. In all 3 cases a moderate El Niño was predicted repeatedly as I just posted. And the Euro has never been too cold by a significant degree. The one or two too cold misses were tiny in size. 2. The Euro when averaged out in only actual El Niño seasons had a smaller warm bias than for other seasons, which I’ve also pointed out. However, it still had a small warm bias even for those with some big too warm misses even during Nino seasons. 3. Furthermore, RONI of that season peaked at only high end moderate/low end strong as the Euro doesn’t predict RONI. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI. 4. Let’s see what actually happens. It could of course end up very strong/super even for RONI as I’m open too all possibilities. It’s way too early for high confidence in any strength. That’s my main point. But remember to subtract ~0.5C for the best RONI prog.

Thanks, Don. He also said “I may look at March days with maximum temperatures at or above the 90th percentile for better measure.” If he actually does this and posts it, would that be a better approach?

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From outspoken pro met. Chris Martz fwiw: Any comments?

This is my first time doing this: DCA: +3.3 NYC: +2.6 BOS: +2.2 ORD: +2.9 ATL: +3.3 IAH: +1.6 DEN: +5.0 PHX: +4.2 SEA: +1.1

The contrast sure is fascinating! Anchorage also is getting their coldest March on record. Because this thread is centered on Phoenix, I talked about the record cold Fairbanks in another thread, including in this post:

JB is going to bring his numbers way down per what he recently said. He said 2015 may be a good analog.

Are you talking RONI peak? Which PDO are you referring to, the monthly NOAA or the WCS graphed dailies, which average ~1 higher?

1. The Euro also repeatedly (April through August) predicted a moderate El Niño ONI in 2012 and ONI ended up peaking at only +0.4. 2. In March of 2017 Euro progged a +1.1 ONI in JAS vs -0.1 ONI that verified! In April of 2017 it progged +1.1 ASO vs -0.3 that verified!

The Euro is prone to being too warm with ONI, sometimes by a lot: 1) 2014: It in 3/2014 predicted a +1.3 ONI for JAS vs only +0.1 that verified It progged in 4/2014 +1.4 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified Euro progged in 5/2014 +1.5 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified 2) 2012: It progged in 4/2012 +1.0 for ASO vs only +0.4 that verified It progged in 5/2012 +1.0 for SON vs only +0.3 that verified It progged in 6/2012 +1.2 for OND vs only +0.1 that verified 3) 2017: In March of 2017 Euro progged a +1.1 ONI in JAS vs -0.1 ONI that verified! In April of 2017 it progged +1.1 ASO vs -0.3 that verified! ————— I’m not even talking about RONI, which as of now is ~0.5 cooler than ONI. ——————— Sources: Euro progs https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014-June-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table ONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

Atlanta, especially airport south through the S burbs, had a major snowstorm in Jan of 1992.

Impressive activity ITT so early with already page 12 while still in March! How does this compare to when prior ENSO titled annual threads reached page 12? All of these started in Feb: 2025-6: well into April 2024-5: May 2023-4: April 2022-3: can’t find 2021-2: September So, 2026-7 is the most active of these so early thanks in part to the anticipated amazingly strong WWB, which better happen this time or else…

I don’t have it going later than 3/17. I got that 3/1-17 from another source as I didn’t produce the map. Of course, the full March will be warmer. Example (looking at Phoenix): 3/1-17 was +9 but 3/1-31 should be ~+12. I know where to find the lower 48 map after the month is over. Where can one get the up to date month to date map?

Followup: Look how far-off the quoted 3/18 MJO progs are verifying! They had it in phase 7 3/24-29 headed to phase 8 vs the reality of them then already being in phase 8 headed toward phase 1: @EastonSN+

This record cold March at Fairbanks is even more amazing when you consider how much above normal it was in the Arctic (80+N) in March: You can see evidence of this stark contrast of cold anomalies to the warm anomalies to the north in the Arctic as well as to the south in the lower 48 on this for March 1-17:

We’ve talked about UHI being a nontrivial portion of Phoenix’s warming. I’ve brought it up, myself. But, note as you may already realize that the UHI affects the warming of lows more than the warming of highs (assuming I’m not mistaken).