GaWx

Anthony, Thanks for posting the DT update. 1. We don’t even know what the QBO is doing anymore thanks to you know who. But, based on where it was early in 2026, there was very little chance that it would NOT be W based this winter. *Edited due to typo* 2. I think that the usefulness of Judah’s SAI is questionable.

I look at @LibertyBellas being the Superman of efficiency, which I can appreciate. However, if someone who wrote one of the 100 posts whom LB replied to wants to reply back, wouldn’t that be a mess? I mean one of my posts (about baseball 8th-9th inning comeback chances) was in another massive reply. I was going to reply back, but never did because of the mess. I guess I could have copied and pasted just the reply to me, but I was too lazy. I don’t think a single person in that position has ever replied back! So, I’ve figured out why LB does this. To minimize replies back. And that’s part of being a Superman of efficiency. Right LB?

It’s finally over regarding this supercell! 642 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 ...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL LEXINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SALUDA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM EDT... THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, AND NO LONGER APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THEREFORE, THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

It’s finally over regarding this supercell! 642 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 ...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL LEXINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SALUDA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM EDT... THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, AND NO LONGER APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THEREFORE, THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

I don’t know whether this supercell is still producing a tornado but here’s the next tornado warning: TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 620 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... SOUTHEASTERN SALUDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTHEASTERN AIKEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 645 PM EDT. * AT 620 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF BATESBURG-LEESVILLE, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... BATESBURG-LEESVILLE AROUND 625 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HIBERNIA, KNEECE, SAMARIA FIRE STATION, FREDONIA, AND CAMP KINARD. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 IN SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 38.

This after >3.5 hours is about to cross I-20! TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 555 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTH CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 630 PM EDT. * AT 555 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR AIKEN STATE PARK, OR 15 MILES EAST OF AIKEN, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN LEXINGTON AND NORTH CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... NEW HOLLAND AND STEEDMAN. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 IN SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 36. ———— Edit: I don’t know whether this supercell is still producing a tornado but here the next tornado warning: TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 620 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... SOUTHEASTERN SALUDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTHEASTERN AIKEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 645 PM EDT. * AT 620 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF BATESBURG-LEESVILLE, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... BATESBURG-LEESVILLE AROUND 625 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HIBERNIA, KNEECE, SAMARIA FIRE STATION, FREDONIA, AND CAMP KINARD. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 IN SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 38.

This at the 3.5 hour point is about to cross I-20! TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 555 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTH CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 630 PM EDT. * AT 555 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR AIKEN STATE PARK, OR 15 MILES EAST OF AIKEN, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN LEXINGTON AND NORTH CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... NEW HOLLAND AND STEEDMAN. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 IN SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 36.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 527 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL BARNWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... EAST CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 600 PM EDT. * AT 526 PM EDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER WILLISTON, OR 11 MILES NORTH OF BARNWELL, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... WILLISTON AROUND 530 PM EDT. AIKEN STATE PARK AROUND 535 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE AIKEN GOPHER TORTOISE HERITAGE PRESERVE, WINDSOR, AND ELKO. **Over THREE hours and this supercell is still going! *Mucho kudos to chasers tracking this so well to allow NWS/public to be aware!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 527 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL BARNWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... EAST CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 600 PM EDT. * AT 526 PM EDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER WILLISTON, OR 11 MILES NORTH OF BARNWELL, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... WILLISTON AROUND 530 PM EDT. AIKEN STATE PARK AROUND 535 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE AIKEN GOPHER TORTOISE HERITAGE PRESERVE, WINDSOR, AND ELKO. ***Edit 5:43PM: This supercell has been going >THREE hours since a tornado pic was first released!! *Mucho kudos to chasers tracking this so well to allow NWS/public to be aware!

Still going and going with this released just 5 minutes ago: ETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 509 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN BARNWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 545 PM EDT. * AT 509 PM EDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER BARNWELL, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... WILLISTON AROUND 515 PM EDT.

Still going and going with this released just 5 minutes ago: ETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 509 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN BARNWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 545 PM EDT. * AT 509 PM EDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER BARNWELL, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... WILLISTON AROUND 515 PM EDT.

The tornado is now being spotted in Barnwell: TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 451 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BARNWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 515 PM EDT. * AT 450 PM EDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BARNWELL, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... BARNWELL AROUND 455 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE BARNWELL COUNTY AIRPORT.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 430 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BARNWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 500 PM EDT. * AT 428 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER APPLETON, OR NEAR ALLENDALE, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN BARNWELL COUNTY, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... KLINE. *Edit 5PM supercell has traveled 50 miles since tornado first spotted

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 430 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BARNWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 500 PM EDT. * AT 428 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER APPLETON, OR NEAR ALLENDALE, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN BARNWELL COUNTY, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... KLINE. *Edit 5PM storm has traveled 50 miles since tornado first spotted

0419 PM TORNADO 5 SSW APPLETON 32.97N 81.40W 10/10/2026 ALLENDALE SC STORM CHASER LIVE STREAM SHOWED ACTIVE TORNADO ON THE GROUND, CAUSING TREES TO BE SHREDDED AND DEBRIS TO BE LOFTED. ROOF AND SIDING WERE ALSO RIPPED OFF MANUFACTURED HOME, AND POWER LINES WERE SNAPPED.

On ground nearly 2 hours and still being shown on that live stream! Highly unusual to say the least, especially in the SE!

Live coverage of Screven Cty, GA, and now Allendale Cty, SC, tornado!

The 1st pic of this tornado was posted way back at 2:33PM, 100 minutes ago! This is going to go down into history for that reason alone. Damage is 200 yards wide! 0327 PM TORNADO 2 NW NEWINGTON 32.61N 81.52W 10/10/2026 SCREVEN GA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER POLES DOWNED NEAR OLD SAVANNAH HWY AND HWY 21 LIKELY DUE TO TORNADO. DAMAGE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 200 YARDS WIDE. Live coverage of Screven Cty, GA, and now Allendale Cty, SC, tornado! 0419 PM TORNADO 5 SSW APPLETON 32.97N 81.40W 10/10/2026 ALLENDALE SC STORM CHASER LIVE STREAM SHOWED ACTIVE TORNADO ON THE GROUND, CAUSING TREES TO BE SHREDDED AND DEBRIS TO BE LOFTED. ROOF AND SIDING WERE ALSO RIPPED OFF MANUFACTURED HOME, AND POWER LINES WERE SNAPPED.

The 1st pic of this tornado was posted way back at 2:33PM, 100 minutes ago! This is going to go down into history for that reason alone. Damage 200 yards wide! 0327 PM TORNADO 2 NW NEWINGTON 32.61N 81.52W 10/10/2026 SCREVEN GA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER POLES DOWNED NEAR OLD SAVANNAH HWY AND HWY 21 LIKELY DUE TO TORNADO. DAMAGE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 200 YARDS WIDE.

Very serious, longtracked (been going 1 hour+!!) violent tornado moving N at 25 toward Allendale Cty of SC: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 340 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... SCREVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT. * AT 340 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUNTERS, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BURTONS FERRY LANDING AND MILBURY.

Very serious, longtracked (been going 1 hour+!!) violent tornado moving N at 25 toward Allendale Cty of SC: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 340 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... SCREVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT. * AT 340 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUNTERS, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BURTONS FERRY LANDING AND MILBURY.

The dewpoints here are way up in the high 70s, something very rare this late into fall. That with the 86 temp gives a heat index way up at 99-100 on Oct 10th! It feels awful! The shift from E to SE winds allowed this: CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS SAVANNAH ARPT PTSUNNY 87 77 72 S17G28 29.95F HX 99 HUNTER AFB MOSUNNY 86 79 79 SE17 29.92F HX 99TC 30 Wind gusts have picked back up with the increasing sunshine and winds at 5K feet being 30 knots (cumulus clouds are hauling) from the S along with strong SW winds at H5+ are setting up a potential for severe thunderstorms in this general area later this afternoon/eve.

*I’ve received 0.75” so far from Isaias’ influence.* I just went outside and it felt like a midsummer steam bath! Then I saw that dewpoints are way up in the high 70s, something very rare this late into fall. That with the 86 temp gives a heat index way up at 99-100 on Oct 10th! The shift from E to SE winds allowed this: CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS SAVANNAH ARPT PTSUNNY 87 77 72 S17G28 29.95F HX 99 HUNTER AFB MOSUNNY 86 79 79 SE17 29.92F HX 99 Wind gusts have picked back up with the increasing sunshine and winds at 5K feet being 30 knots (cumulus clouds are hauling) from the S along with strong SW winds at H5+ thus setting up a potential for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon/eve. The severe risk is only “slight”, but I don’t even recall that here anytime recently:

Fantastic forecast, Ray, that was spot on other than being slightly too slow!

I’m glad the expected last minute weakening verified well saving from a MH landfall, but realize getting cat 1-2 H effects is of course still a big impactful event (I know first hand). Interestingly per Dr. Knabb, that same strong shear that caused the dramatic weakening just before landfall actually caused the worst of the thunderstorms/wind gusts (solid cat 2 gusts) to be in your area in the NW eyewall (where Stephanie Abrams great coverage was). It’s almost as if the NW eyewall weakening lagged behind. She said she had never seen so much lightning in an eyewall, which typically has limited lightning due to the upper atmosphere being too warm for as much ice in the clouds vs typically much more lightning in outer bands as Dr. Knabb explained. I thought TWC coverage was excellent between her, Cantore showing storm surge and sudden shift to warming S winds off Gulf in E eyewall, and Dr. Knabb.