GaWx

Lowest hourly SLP at reporting land-based station I found was 29.37” (994.6 mb) at Toms River, NJ, at 9AM and 10AM. Next lowest Atlantic City 29.39” (995.3 mb) at 11AM.

Thanks. If that makes it to TS status and avoids getting to H status, I think that would tie an Atlantic Basin record for most named storms in a row from start of season not making it to H status.

Looking at El Niño seasons that at some point maxed out at +2.0C for a trimonthly in Nino 3.4 (using Eric Webb’s tables for pre-1950 and the latest version of NOAA RONI for 1950+), this is what followed in ASO as well as the subsequent fall/winter: 1877-8: ASO +0.1 followed by cold neutral 1888-9: ASO -1.1 followed by strong La Niña 1965-6: ASO 0.0 followed by cold neutral 1972-3: ASO -1.3 followed by strong La Niña 1982-3: ASO -0.6 followed by moderate La Niña 1991-2: ASO +0.1 followed by weak El Niño 1997-8: ASO -1.2 followed by strong La Niña 2015-6: ASO -0.9 followed by moderate La Niña Tally for these 8 strongest El Niños on record: 5 La Niña (3 strong, 2 moderate) (62.5%) 2 cold neutral (25%) 1 weak El Niño (12.5%) So, this suggests the best chance is clearly for La Niña although it also suggests to not dismiss the possibility of something else, mainly cold neutral, especially IF this were to peak later than model consensus has been suggesting (say, in Jan instead of Nov). Of the 3 of these that didn’t go to La Niña, 1877-8 peaked between NDJ and DJF while 1991-2 peaked in DJF. OTOH, 1965-6 peaked early (OND) and still didn’t go all the way to La Niña the following year as it stopped at cold neutral. Note that the 3 that were neutral in ASO never made it to La Niña. ____________________ Sources of data: 1. Webb’s tables (used for pre-1950): https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html 2. NOAA RONI (1950+): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

Thanks. Glad it wasn’t that bad there then. Between Fri and Sun, the delays at LGA were shortest on Sat due largely to the normal fewer scheduled flights that day allowing for them to handle the use of just one runway. But today’s avg delay is still getting longer with the arrival delay averaging 2 hrs, 19 min, at last report though that’s still not as bad as the ~2 hrs, 45 min of late Fri. The departure delays are averaging just over an hour: Due to WEATHER / WIND, there is a Traffic Management Program in effect for traffic arriving La Guardia Airport, New York, NY (LGA). This is causing some arriving flights to be delayed an average of 2 hours and 19 minutes. To see if you may be affected, select your departure airport and check "Delays by Destination". Delays by Destination: Due to WEATHER / WIND, departure traffic destined to La Guardia Airport, New York, NY (LGA) is currently experiencing delays averaging 2 hours and 19 minutes. General Departure Delays: Due to WX:Wind, traffic is experiencing Gate Hold and Taxi delays between 1 hour and 1 minute and 1 hour and 15 minutes in length and increasing.

Is the long length of it noteworthy in relation to others? Isn’t this going to end up as a 48++ hour event in many locations?

The new LGA update shows much longer delays than earlier with the quite strong winds along with lingering light rain/fog: LAGUARDIA ARPT LGT RAIN 61 59 93 NE30G47 29.54R FOG Due to WEATHER / WIND and WEATHER / WIND, there is a Traffic Management Program in effect for traffic arriving La Guardia Airport, New York, NY (LGA). This is causing some arriving flights to be delayed an average of 1 hour and 43 minutes. To see if you may be affected, select your departure airport and check "Delays by Destination". Delays by Destination: Due to WEATHER / WIND, departure traffic destined to La Guardia Airport, New York, NY (LGA) is currently experiencing delays averaging 1 hour and 43 minutes. General Departure Delays: Due to WX:Wind, traffic is experiencing Gate Hold and Taxi delays between 1 hour and 1 minute and 1 hour and 15 minutes in length and increasing.

The big ups and downs of the WCS daily PDO continue with nearly a 1.00 drop the last 10 days to -1.43:

Since May 23rd, I count only 5 days in either the MC or the IO and that rarity in those regions looks to continue at least through Oct 11th. That would most likely mean as of Oct 11th only 5 of the prior 142 days (3.5%) in MC/IO, easily a record low % for that long of a period since records started 6/1/1974:

Suffolk power outages have increased to the highest I’ve seen there for this storm at 3.2% or 20.6K: https://poweroutage.us/area/county/830 —————— Also: due to visibility Due to WEATHER / LOW VISIBILITY, there is a Traffic Management Program in effect for traffic arriving La Guardia Airport, New York, NY (LGA). This is causing some arriving flights to be delayed an average of 51 minutes. To see if you may be affected, select your departure airport and check "Delays by Destination". Delays by Destination: Due to WEATHER / LOW VISIBILITY, departure traffic destined to La Guardia Airport, New York, NY (LGA) is currently experiencing delays averaging 51 minutes.

Oct 5-11 has been similarly cool/warm in the E/W 1/2 of the U.S. for 4 runs:

Thanks. But tomorrow is a busier day from the afternoon onward than Saturday I believe. Do you think he’s referring only to his airline when he said no cancellations?

Thanks. Does that mean tomorrow PM could return to big delays at LGA like yesterday? I’m asking because my nephew has a 4PM flight leaving from there.

LaGuardia for now is doing much better than 24 hours ago, when avg delays were nearly 3 hrs, as the avg delay now is <15 minutes. JFK avg delay is 50 minutes.

Thanks. Ulster’s now at 17k out of ~100k customers vs Suffolk being at 10k with >6 times the # of customers! Ulster has almost half the outages in the entire state. https://poweroutage.us/area/county/833

Kind of odd: Ulster Cty now has highest # and % of outages in NY with 11k/11%. Is this accurate? Neighboring counties are much lower. Suffolk is at 9k/1.4%. https://poweroutage.us/area/county/833

Radar suggests several mainly dry hours coming in NYC.

KSAV low of 51 is coldest this early in season since 1999.

That 51 at KSAV is the earliest that cold since 1999!

Delays are currently much shorter on avg vs last evening at LaGuardia, when they were nearing 3 hrs…maybe then will turn out to be the worst of it?? LaGuardia Airport (LGA) is currently reporting normal operations with general departure and arrival delays of 15 minutes or less, according to the FAA Airspace System Status. Arrival Delays: Airborne delays are 15 minutes or less. Departure Delays: Gate hold and taxi delays are lasting 15 minutes or less. Weather/Status: Previous weather-related ground delays from earlier in the weekend have cleared, and current FAA status shows normal conditions.

Suffolk is still by far leading the outages in the area with 10K although that’s still not too bad on a % basis (1.6%). Nassau has 5.5K/1.2%. Total in NY state: 23K NJ: 31K with highest # in Ocean Cty at 8K (2.5%) although highest % in NW NJ’s Warren Cty (5.4%) CT: 14K with highest % of 4% in E CT

Suffolk outages have increased from ~3K (0.5%) to ~5K (0.8%) within the last hour.

Due to WEATHER / WIND, there is a Traffic Management Program in effect for traffic arriving La Guardia Airport, New York, NY (LGA). This is causing some arriving flights to be delayed an average of 2 hours and 42 minutes.

Power outages are highest in Suffolk as a %, but even there that’s only at 0.5%.

Thank you! I had a brain malfunction! I edited my original post to point to the error and correction of dates. I apologize for my mistake. The new map for Oct 5-11 has a slightly stronger cold signal than yesterday’s: H5: @mitchnick

I’m not saying the Euro is necessarily going to be right. But I’m passing this along because it’s objectively determined and easily available to the wx community. So fwiw: The new Euro ensemble (12Z) maintains the 90-100% chance that the 0Z and 6Z had for a tropical storm to form from this: The run from just 24 hrs earlier for the same period had only just over 70% for the chance: