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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    The amazing runs keep coming! The 12Z 8/2/26 CFSv2 has the strongest AAM for forecast days ~12-23 that I’ve seen/saved! The mean hits 3 on day 12, 3.5 on day 16, and 4 on day 17 or 18! There are 3 of 4 members at 4+ on day 19 or 20 through day 22! Afterward, it isn’t quite as impressive as the last run and the far right isn’t as impressive as the last 2 although it’s still very impressive:@snowman19
  2. GaWx
    It appears per radar that I’m about to get clobbered with heavy rain. Rain started ~5:50PM.
  3. GaWx
    12Z UKMET has no TC but it does have this vigorous TW on Thu evening moving NW and then NNW from there bringing convection into the NFL/GA/SC coast on Fri 8/7. I may have to watch this. Hopefully it ends up nothing more than this or a low end TS at the very worst:
  4. GaWx
    The latest WCS daily PDO has fallen to -2.19, which is the lowest since way back on 8/29/25! This plunge was not predicted AFAIK:
  5. GaWx
    This isn’t about measuring GW. This is about using the most appropriate 30 year period to determine what normals are. Due to GW, normals have increased a couple of degrees over the last few decades as you know. Thus, 1951-80 has been outdated for decades to use to determine normals, which are always changing.
  6. GaWx
    The longer range model consensus is suggesting the possibility of a very long MJO phase 6 streak later this month, the 2nd this year possibly reaching 14+ days, and with a likely max magnitude of 2+. Longest MJO ph. 6: # days; max mag 7/28-8/18/1984: 22; 2.5; 7/15-8/4/1996: 21; 2.0; 10/13-31/2022: 19; 2.2 6/13-30/1984: 18; 2.0; 1/5-21/2026: 17; 2.7 11/16-12/1/1998: 16; 2.5 10/6-20/1988: 15; 3.0 7/19-8/1/2018: 14; 2.5 2/25-3/10/1997: 14; 3.6
  7. GaWx
    Today’s SOI rose to ~-8, the highest in a month, from ~-22 yesterday due to a sharp increase in pressure at Tahiti. However, Tahiti has most likely about peaked and it will be falling back noticeably within the next few days. Meanwhile, Darwin’s pressure looks to be higher tomorrow than today. Thus, I’m expecting another -SOI tomorrow, which would make it 85 straight -SOI days vs the record back to 1991 of 100 (set in 1998). Darwin should peak tomorrow followed by a drop for 2-3 days. But with Tahiti’s concurrent fall during that period, I’m thinking the -SOI streak will likely continue for at least the next few days and likely make it to at least 90 days.
  8. GaWx
    I was wrong as the Darwin 1015+ mb streak is still going! It’s now up to 24 days and tomorrow looks to also be 1015+. That would make it 25 straight days vs the prior longest of 20 days from July of 2015.
  9. GaWx
    I strongly disagree. 1951-80 has not been relevant base climo for anomalies for a very long time. Normals are supposed to reflect the most up to date available climo. We’re obviously in a notably warmer climate than that of 1951-80. That earlier colder climate is no longer relevant for determining normals.
  10. GaWx
    I fully realize that the 30 year climo period available during 1997-8, just like at the time for any winter, always has to end prior to that winter for obvious reasons. There’s no choice. But once one gets further into the future, a more appropriate 30 year period to use as a basis for the analysis of anomalies for any winter is imho the 30 years most centered on that winter. Otherwise, in a warming climate using a 30 year period that’s prior to that winter is always going to bias that winter to look warmer than it really was vs the best centered 30 year climo. So, I strongly disagree with you on this and I’ll leave it at that. I don’t expect for you to agree with my thinking here. That’s fine as there’s nothing wrong with that. These are solid debates, which I enjoy, rather than them being arguments/throwing cheap shots.
  11. GaWx
    I assume you’re referring to the NE US. Regarding the US as a whole, nothing is even close to a certainty, especially this far out. Even the NE is far from certain though cold there is admittedly quite unlikely. And the SE actually had a downright cold super-Nino winter: 1957-8.
  12. GaWx
    Chris, The following is a better way to look at how 1997-8 did: using the more appropriate/well centered climo base of 1981-2010 instead of 1961-90, which is earlier than 1997-8. Using the earlier, colder 1961-90 makes 1997-8 anomalies ~1F warmer than they actually were in many areas as you know vs the available best centered climo of 1981-2010: still mild in NE but not as mild and SE NN:
  13. GaWx
    I assume you’re referring specifically to the NE US as the first 3 winters weren’t warm in the SE. They were pretty close to normal there.
  14. GaWx
    Amazingly, the very next CFSv2 run of AAM (0Z on 8/2/26) is even more extreme overall than the posted prior run making it the most extreme I’ve ever seen although this one never quite gets all 4 at 4+ simultaneously (so the first week and last few days are only parts not more extreme): this one already has two at 4+ at day 20! @snowman19
  15. GaWx
    I know that the right sides of these are typically overdone and that’s nearly certainly the case here, of course. But the last 2 weeks of the 12Z 8/1/26 CFSv2 AAM prog is one for the books with the earliest 4+ amp. in a run from a member that I’ve ever seen (day 20) as well as the first run I’ve seen with more than two members at 4+ at the same time! This one has ALL 4 members at 4+ on the far right allowing them to actually have room to put the 4 member color key on the far right instead of on the far left like it always has been: @snowman19
  16. GaWx
    CFS is at warmest yet! Nov peak +3.75 vs record +2.69! Also, still has a record crazy rapid plunge Dec-Mar! OND peak +3.5 vs record +2.52!
  17. GaWx
    Yeah, Don, I just looked at the following, which is as of Aug 1. It tells me that whereas Aug 1st is NN for NA, SA is MBN. Projecting from Aug 1 to EOY gets NA to ~2012-25 avg but SA is headed for MBN when projected. July added only ~4 mill ha in Americas vs avg of ~8 due to wet SA thus putting Aug 1st even further behind than Jul 1st:
  18. GaWx
    They are overall although not the BN Arctic interestingly enough.
  19. GaWx
    Opinions about this, which shows lowest cumulative YTD burnt area as of July 1st in Americas since at least 2012?@donsutherland1@WolfStock1
  20. GaWx
    I never said this summer wasn’t hot and never said 1987 was as hot. But 1987 was still hot and not normal for Nino. That’s why I pointed it out as another hot summer exception for Nino. That’s all. Edit: I agree with your original idea that 2026 hot summer to date is atypical of pre-super-Nino. Then I brought up ‘91 being hot because it was the other exception to pre-super Nino hot summers. Then you correctly said that ‘91 was still just weak during summer. Then I brought up 1987 because it was mod to strong Nino in summer and hot.
  21. GaWx
    3. I never said 1987 summer was as warm as 2026 summer to date. But it was still warm in the E US, which is not normal for Nino. @bluewave
  22. GaWx
    Chris, 1. Just “A little warmer in the East” relative to the rest of CONUS”? For summer, which has relatively lower variance, this is not just “a little”. 2. This discussion started based on you posting cool Nino summer US maps. Why are you bringing up “Pacific to the Atlantic”? Red herring again.
  23. GaWx
    Over
  24. GaWx
    Here’s 1980-89 summer mean vs 1971-2000 climo: 1980s were NN Here’s 1987 summer vs same climo: notably warmer than the NN 1980s mean E 1/2 US and it did that during Nino: that was not Ninoish at all; comparing it to other hot summers like 1980, 1983, or 1988 is a red herring as they weren’t Nino
  25. GaWx
    The maps I was basing my post on were from weathermodels.com and were using 1991-2020 for base climo. But since I posted that, the WxBell Aug 1st version came out. It uses 1981-2010 for climo. WB had the warmest anomalies centered in Nov near 180 for the April-June 1st runs and significantly further E (near 160W) for the July 1st run. WB (using 1981-2010 base) has its Aug 1st Nov warmest centered near 150W, which is C based/basinwide and not E based like weathermodels.com’s (1991-2020 base) 130W. So, the WB 1981-2010 base version also moved E, but not nearly as far as the weathermodels 1991-2020 base version, which has it all the way E to 130W (pretty E based): WB 7/1/26 SSTa run for Nov (1981-2010 base) centered ~160W WB 8/1/26 SSTa run for Nov (1981-2010 base) centered ~150W
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