GaWx

The model consensus is still forecasting the MJO to be in or near phase 3 for Feb 22-23. Phase 3 has been the coldest MJO phase (based on Baltimore as a representative city) by a good margin when averaged out day by day during the 20 La Niña Februaries since 1975. It has averaged 4 F colder than the avg anomaly for all 566 Feb Niña days since 1975. Keep in mind that Feb Niña has averaged ~2 AN, which is intuitive. Regardless, the GEFS progged strong -PNA presents its own challenge.

Even if Weathernext2 is also off by one color, it would still be 6” at DC. I’d think 6” would be bordering on a “major” hit there considering that I saw a stat that only 0.7 5”+ snowstorms hit DC each year at this link meaning many years don’t even get a 5” storm: https://downloads.regulations.gov/FWS-R5-ES-2016-0030-0073/attachment_18.pdf#:~:text=For four days a year on average%2C,events that occur about twice a decade.

Is the SV color scale off on AI Weathernext2, too? How would we know?

Keep in mind that phase 3 has on average been the coldest phase during the 20 La Niña Februaries since 1975. Note that the upcoming snowstorm threat period of Feb 22-23 centered on the Mid Atlantic is forecasted to be in or very near phase 3 fwiw all the while fighting the making it a challenge progged strong -PNA.

6Z SV AI Weathernext2: 8” DC

You set up a good example of what I was referring to in my last post. If someone from Lincoln County, which has gone well over climo this winter with 11”, had moved to NYC for more snow this winter, he/she despite getting double that as of now (21.2” vs 11”) might end up mad if that were to be about it for the winter (that’s very doubtful though as this next storm could give them a lot but that’s beside my point). Why not be happy they got 10” more to enjoy as a result of moving? That’s why moving north often doesn’t work like one expected.

Today’s Euro Weeklies are cooler but only in the shorter term (week of 2/23-3/1), which covers the latter portion of the expected storm that’s being heavily discussed: Yesterday’s 2/23-3/1: Today’s 2/23-3/1 has a colder signal:

They seem to because they actually do as they have much snowier climo, of course, and thus get much more on average. Some there, just as seems to be the case in most subforums, are almost always mad. If they don’t reach climo they’re mad, which keeps them from enjoying what they do get. Thus in their own minds, they almost always “need” more. Some southerners move north for more snow. But then many of them feel the need to get much more in order to be as content. When despite getting more snow than in the S they don’t reach climo, they’re often no happier than they were in the south and sometimes madder! Why can’t they just enjoy the higher amounts vs what they got before? It might be better if they didn’t know climo.

Great point except that isn’t usually at least til Mar or April for even the strongest oncoming ones. And lots of times it isn’t till summer or even early fall, especially for the weak ones. In summary, it’s too early for a predominant -SOI even assuming El Niño is on the way in 2026. March is typically the very earliest. —— Edit: @LakeEffectOH is your avatar pic Mrs. Slocombe from “Are You Being Served?”

Interestingly, the MJO forecasts of the major models are centered on phase 3 for Feb 22-23, the period of this snow threat. Based on Baltimore’s daily temperatures, phase 3 has by a good margin been the coldest MJO phase there during the 20 La Niña Februaries with it on average being 4F colder than the overall Feb Nina avg. Second coldest is phase 8, which has averaged 2F colder than the overall Feb Niña avg. In Feb of 1996, Baltimore got 8.2” during phase 3. In addition, forecasts have both a -EPO and a -WPO for Feb 22-23, two other favorable indices for cold. OTOH, the models have a moderate to strong -PNA for then, a potential negative factor for cold. So, MJO phase 3, -EPO, and -WPO would be favorable. But would a -PNA hurt?

Thanks for posting that. Will it get the dip right this time? It busted with those runs having it very weak around 2/10-15. So far this month the weakest has been down only to 19 m/s.

AI Weathernext2 (from Google DeepMind), which has done pretty well overall this winter, gives DC ~10” per the 6Z on SV though this is likely overdone since it is 10:1:

Thanks Chuck. Based on this OHC anomaly chart already showing ~+0.9C, I think your idea of a fast transition is quite believable as of now. However, keep in mind that this isn’t adjusted downward for relative (as in the RONI idea) purposes:

This WB 6Z Euro AI op run based on 10:1 has 19” at DC! Of course the 10:1 is way overdone because it has temps 33-35 for the first half of the storm. And the WB Euro AIFS has issues as many of us know with too high snowfall in general. However, the WB 0Z CMC and 6Z GFS do have a big hit per Kuchera of 9”! That’s probably a more realistic scenario for the upside potential imho. If DC were to get 9”, it would be their biggest since the 10.3” of 1/12-14/2019!

Although today was AN mainly due to the low, it felt a good bit cooler, especially closer to the coast with a steady breeze off the cold ocean and most noticeably later in the afternoon. Looking forward to a chilly walk this evening.

The official record has the following for phase 8 in Dec and Feb this winter: Dec: 3-7, 15, 17-19. Was cold in E US overall. Feb: 1-7 (coldest phase 8 in Feb La Niña recorded MJO history (per Baltimore), which goes back to 1975) MJO phase each day: https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt Baltimore daily temperatures: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx

Actually, phase 7 has on average (using Baltimore as a representative) been the coldest phase in March (1.7 BN) following La Niña winters with phase 8 second coldest (0.7 BN). But regardless, those are just averages with wide variances and the MJO seeming to have less influence in March vs Feb. Also, the combo of the progged -PNA, +AO, and +NAO would strongly favor mild in early March.

I just completed my study of La Niña March temperatures by MJO phase at Baltimore (as a geographically centered rep. of the E coast). Before I show Mar, here’s a review of what I found for Feb Niña by phase: 1: +2.1 (near Niña Feb climo) 2: +4.4 (2nd warmest) 3: -1.5 (coldest) 4: +3.3 5: +3.1 6: +5.5 (warmest) 7: +2.2 (near Nina Feb climo) 8: +0.7 (2nd coldest) AVG: +2.5 Range: 7.0 ————— Now, here’s the just completed March Niña by phase: 1: +1.0 (near Niña Mar climo) 2: -0.1 3: +1.8 4: +0.3 5: +2.1 (2nd warmest) 6: +2.6 (warmest) 7: -1.7 (coldest) 8: -0.7 (2nd coldest) AVG: +0.7 Range: 4.3 ——————— So, how does March Niña compare to Feb Nina? -phase 6 warmest on avg for both -phase 7 coldest on avg for Mar vs phase 3 for Feb -avg anomaly for Mar (+0.7) not as warm as that for Feb (+2.5), which is intuitive for La Nina -Range of variation of averages by phase in Mar (4.3) not nearly as large as that of Feb (7.0), which is somewhat intuitive since temperature volatility tends to drop as we head into met. spring from the most volatile season, winter. This also may indicate that MJO, itself, as a factor may not have quite as much of an influence in March as it does in winter -It’s important to always keep in mind that these are just averages of a wide range for each individual case from MB to MA temp. anomalies. Thus, whereas averages are informative, they don’t tell us how any one case will actually turn out. —————— Sources: MJO phase for each day: https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt Baltimore daily temperatures: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx

Thanks, Chris. I’ve followed Florida orange production closely since the late 1990s. The 2 main negative factors since then have been Citrus Greening and increased major hurricane frequency during 2004-2024. The hurricane damage was made worse by many of the groves migrating further south to S FL vs C FL being the heart of it earlier. Ironically, they moved further south because of the many devastating freezes of the late 1970s-1980s! This leads me to say that you left off a major positive factor related to CC: sharp drop in major freeze damage events. During the late 1970s-1980s there were many major freezes including Jan 1977, Jan 1981, Jan 1982, Dec 1983, Jan 1985, and Dec of 1989 (30% losses from this one, alone!). Since Dec of 1989, there has been nothing even close to these devastating FL orange crop freezes thanks in large part to CC, which you didn’t even mention. As a side note, major Brazilian coffee freezes have also dropped in frequency and severity since the 1990s thanks in part to CC.

Even the short range of the Euro AI has bogus snow. Check this stupidity out: The bogus 18Z Euro AIFS ens member 7 on WB gave Valdosta, GA, a foot of snow for the 6 hours ending at 7PM last evening lmao:

I look (or more accurately laugh) at them mainly on WxBell. Are the Euro AI snow maps flawed on Pivotal and other places, too?

Chuck, Even the short range of the Euro AI has bogus snow. Check this stupidity out: The bogus 18Z Euro AIFS ens member 7 on WB gave Valdosta, GA, a foot of snow for the 6 hours ending at 7PM last evening lmao:

My forecast has low 80s for Thu/Fri highs…yippee!

I got ~0.75” of rainfall from showers mid to late this afternoon with some heavy for a short period. This is the most I’ve gotten in a day since at the very least Jan 18th. The new mini-drainage system that was set up in the back portion of MBY seemed to do pretty well although the real tests will probably not come til spring and especially summer.

Thanks, Don 1. I felt that at a minimum that the wording wasn’t the best, possibly due to haste. I may follow up with him on that to get better clarification. 2. He did mention the effect on crop sizes from the variable of climate/wx being hard to separate out. Doesn’t that include the variable of temperature?