GaWx

The average 3.4 SSTa adjusted for GW has leaned significantly toward La Niña the last 20 years with an avg anomaly of -0.3C.

1. Yes 2. I went from the beautiful Estes Park to Rock Cut (where I walked a bit) and then turned around. On the way back at Forest Canyon, I walked the entire paved path and checked out all of the amazing views. I also stopped at most of the pullovers on each side going and coming back. On the way down, I walked a short dirt path to a beautiful meadow with a tiny stream surrounded by wildflowers. Very peaceful with nobody nearby! (I can’t post because pics are way too large for the attachment limits here.) I spent a total of ~3 hours inside the park. 2. Thanks! Next time I may try Old Fall River Road. How does it compare to TRR safety wise? Even though I loved driving TRR and was very careful, I admit slight feelings of danger on the many parts with a steep drop right off the edge! @mayjawintastawm

I’ve been enjoying seeing and experiencing some monsoon convection since I arrived in CO. Saw some good ones on the way to and inside the awesome Rocky Mtn State Park. Trail Ridge Road is so spectacular that it’s almost beyond words. It went from 80s in Boulder to as cold as 53 at 11,500-12,000 feet up! It was cold enough there for a light jacket, especially when considering the steady winds up there.

The Arctic sea ice area has fallen back to near the 2013-24 mean: Perhaps this is partially related to the temps at 80+N finally rising to NN recently:

The latest few CFSv2 4 day means have reduced the Feb cold in the SE substantially: Compare that to how cold it was on the 4 day mean just 2.5 days prior:

If Lala were to get a new name, maybe it will be Tinky Winky, Dipsy, or Po.

Joe Bastardi brings something up that I think merits further study. The contrast in temps between the tropics and Arctic has dropped significantly since 1999 because the Arctic has warmed ~2C while the tropics have warmed significantly less. GW has been most concentrated in the Arctic. “A reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient lowers zonal available potential energy (ZAPE) and surface baroclinicity. Baroclinic instability is the primary energy source for extratropical cyclones (the large-scale mid-latitude storms that form along the jet stream and frontal zones). With less available energy to draw from: Models (including coordinated experiments focused on Arctic sea-ice loss and amplification) generally show fewer individual cyclones each season across the northern mid-latitudes and Arctic. The remaining storms tend to be, on average, somewhat weaker, slower-moving, and longer-lived.” Individual events can still be intense or produce more extreme rainfall because of thermodynamic changes. Because of the distortion of warming, it leads to some things opposite of what is portrayed in the general sense. Your point is that this differential warming can produce effects that run counter to the simple ‘warmer world = more of everything extreme’ narrative, especially for baroclinic storm frequency and intensity. The thought experiment cleanly highlights how the pattern of warming, not just global-mean temperature, controls the dynamical response.”

Flying today for the first time in over a decade! Especially because I haven’t flown in so long, flying is still fascinating to me and I’m always at a window looking out! On way to CO, 1st stop is in Detroit, my first time in Michigan. The views of W Lake Erie, my first time seeing Erie, were awesome. Noting the fair wx cumulus over land areas due to heating in the early afternoon while mainly clear over the cooler lake: @roardog@michsnowfreak

Latest 10 day/40 run CFSv2 mean for Feb:

I just started getting decent thunderstorm rains ~7PM. This month so far has been quite beneficial for the lawns and may allow me to keep the sprinklers off the rest of the month! Edit: My total today was ~0.1”.

Thanks, Mitch. It has risen >1 in just 14 days!

CFSv2 10 day run mean is still not backing off of a cold Feb in a large portion of the US, especially corridor from SE US to C Plains where most areas are a whopping 5-7.5F BN though I’d prefer Alaska and NW Canada be AN: Compare this to the same for Feb of 2024 from about the same 10 day mean in Aug of 2023:

Per the following reliable and objective source, year 2026 as of week 32 has had the lowest area burnt in North America since 2012 by a good margin vs other years as of the same week (by a third). Also, globally it has been by a large margin the lowest for this point in the year since 2012 as I’ve been posting despite being near the warmest globally along with 2025 being 2nd lowest. My point in posting about 2026 for N.A. and 2026/5 globally is not to say CC is causing a decrease in wildfire activity because I’m not saying that. Instead, my point in posting this is to show that that there isn’t a proven simple relationship between CC and wildfire related activity and that different kinds of wildfire related data from various sources from various periods can be presented in various ways:

Our warmest since 1980: 16-7 (Niña) 22-3 (Nina) 19-20 (WN) 18-19 (Nino) 15-16 (Nino) 21-2 (Nina) 12-13 (CN) 11-12 (Nina)

Week 32 worldwide YTD cumulative burnt area by wildfires: 2026 is still by a good margin lowest of comparable weeks of 2012-26:

Naming a TC after a teletubby?

That’s where the great and long SOI monthly records can be useful. There’s a good -correlation between SOI and 3.4 SSTa. SOI goes way back to 1876.

For the first run in many days, the UKMET (12Z) has no Atlantic basin TC.

In the 1980s soon after obtaining my first job in my field of study, my first big purchase was for a washer/dryer. I was so excited. But I was even more excited with my 2nd buy, an even bigger one: what my friends called a “weather machine”. This “machine” was a combo of the following: a pretty high end short wave radio to get radio facsimile sounds, an Epson dot matrix B/W printer, and a radio facsimile decoder that was sent to me from England. This was a dream come true. The output wasn’t that good as weak or interfered signals were common, but this was the only way I could get my own feed of wx data!

Vigorous but respectful discussion/debate about the relevant subject makes for the best threads. Echo chambers are boring. It’s beneficial to respectfully debate alternative viewpoints. Intense debates relying on factual evidence, critical thinking, and sound reasoning instead of emotional appeals or personal attacks are the most desirable. Also, being open-minded to change one’s views is beneficial to these threads. Posters displaying intellectual humility, reading others’ posts thoroughly, and being willing to update their views when presented with better evidence is desirable for quality threads. @bluewave Edit: Many of the worst threads at this BB were in the Politics forum because little of the above was the case in most threads. Hardly anyone was open minded about anything and personal attacks were common. Trolling was common. It was absolutely awful due to hardly any intelligent debate. Fortunately, this thread is far better!

The relatively good news continues as regards the Arctic sea ice area:

Down to 20% now: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to decrease. Even though development is unlikely, gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

0Z UKMET: ends up N of PR as a TD moving WNW:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 17.1N 56.8WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 18.08.2026 108 17.1N 56.8W 1013 240000UTC 19.08.2026 120 18.4N 58.3W 1014 251200UTC 19.08.2026 132 19.2N 60.4W 1014 260000UTC 20.08.2026 144 20.0N 62.1W 1015 271200UTC 20.08.2026 156 20.6N 64.3W 1015 280000UTC 21.08.2026 168 21.4N 67.0W 1014 28

After an official airport high of an awful 97, I was on the road in the middle of a full-fledged severe thunderstorm in the SW SAV metro area along and near US-17 and GA 204 ~6-6:15PM. It was about the most ferocious storm I’ve experienced so far this summer with high winds, some of the worst CTG lightning I’ve seen this summer, and blinding torrential rain. It was a doozy with Ma Nature showing off her wild side. There were some fallen trees nearby per reports. When I got home it was raining heavily though nothing like what I saw earlier. My home also had a popup earlier. Total rainfall today was >1”, which was very nice to see! Edit: I ended up with ~1.05” on 8/13. This brings my MTD to an AN 4.55” through 8/15.

The Aug ‘23 Jamstec was actually slightly colder than the prior two months. But to be fair, Sep and moreso Oct were colder than the Aug run before Nov warmed back up to no BN. However, even the Oct 23 run, which a number of us including me were understandably salivating over, wasn’t nearly as cold as the current run (also note how much colder is the Arctic vs 23-4): Current run (Aug):