GaWx

He said, The stats here are from a friend of my buddy Paulie, known as GaWX I think JB’s saying that his buddy is named Paulie and that I’m Paulie’s friend. But I don’t know anyone named Paulie. Maybe there’s a poster here or elsewhere who’s real name is Paulie.

Thanks for letting me know as I hadn’t yet seen that. I very much appreciate that he gave me credit, but I’m confused. Who’s Paulie? Anyone know?

No, the overall heat from the sun does not decrease when sunspots increase; the total solar energy output actually increases slightly during periods of high sunspot activity. This happens because sunspots, though cooler and darker, are surrounded by brighter, hotter areas called faculae (or plages). The increased brightness from the faculae outweighs the slight dimming from the sunspots themselves, resulting in a net increase in the sun's total energy output. From an inquiry of AI via Google of the following: Does overall heat from sun decrease when sunspots increase? ———— So it’s a net increase. Solar flux increases.

The jury is out on whether or not CC is bringing down/will bring down average lifespans. Why? -If we assume CC significantly increases food supply via larger crops, that (would) markedly reduces deaths related to malnutrition. That is (would be) huge! -Cold has historically been a bigger killer than heat although that eventually might even out way down the road. -Sea level rises are gradual. Thus a lot of the death potential from it can easily be mitigated by moving to higher ground. -When considering all of the above, CC may actually (continue to) result in increased average life spans with increased deaths from heat/flooding/more intense hurricanes notwithstanding.

That’s interesting, Chris! Regardless, this NYC snowfall rule before/after an SSW is tangential to the significant correlation of major SSW to several weeks of cold following a lag period in the E US as a whole.

Hey Chris, But I wasn’t talking about snow. I’ve been talking only about temperatures in the E US as a whole. I didn't mention snowfall/wintry precip in that post because the correlation is to cold. Wintry precip is too hit and miss depending on one’s area as you know. By the way, however, all 3 of the early season SSWs since 1987 actually had major winter storms in a good portion of the E US following a lag period: Examples: -2002: Early Jan major snow SE US to Richmond including biggest ATL snow since 3/1993 -1998-9: Late Dec-first half Jan gave Baltimore 7” snow and a good portion of VA into the SE 2 major icestorms -1988: 10-12” snow DC-Baltimore to SE US early Jan

-2001: agreed -1998: had a 3 week long cold period last week of Dec to midpoint of Jan (example NYC had 7 F BN 12/23-1/14) -1987: cold last few days of Dec through midpoint of Jan (example NYC had a 11 F BN 12/28-1/15) So, I don’t agree with your statement because two out of three early major SSWs since the late 1980s had the cold for a 2.5-3 week period after a lag, which included a cold first half of Jan.

If a major SSW actually occurs late Nov or early Dec, that rather strong correlation to cold in the E US following a lag period would, alone, suggest a good bit better than average chance at a cold last half of Dec and first half of January in the E US.

Michael Lowry didn’t mention it, but the UKMET did even worse with Melissa than the GFS with it having her very weak on many runs early on, which then caused the model to keep it much further SW than the consensus including several runs of a weak TC into Nicaragua that I posted here. UKMET is such a hit or miss model. It absolutely shined for Imelda and both landfalls for Ian. What did its progs for Imelda and Ian have in common? It was the furthest to the RIGHT. What did its progs have in common for its big busts for Melissa, Laura, and some others? It was the furthest to the LEFT.

The mean gets down to a mere +10, which compares to +14-15 on the prior run and +18 on several runs before that! I estimate 35-40 % of members with a very early season major SSW (10 mb wind reversal), by far the highest yet! Here’s a 3 run animation showing the weaker SPV trend: The last times late Nov/early Dec was this weak were 2009-10, 2000-1, and 1996-7 with 2016-7 almost as weak. The last time there was an actual major SSW (reversal) in late Nov or early Dec was way back on 12/7/1987! The last time there was one at any point in Nov or Dec was on 12/29/2001. Before that there was 12/16/1998, the aforementioned 12/7/1987, the legendary 12/31/1984, 12/3/1981, 11/24/1968, 12/7/1965, and 11/30/1958. So, it having been a whopping 24 years since the last Nov or Dec major SSW means we’re extremely overdue. Prior to the current 24 year drought, the longest on record between early season majors was 13 years followed by 11 years. The current average return period is 8 years. Regarding these 8 early major SSWs, how many were after allowing for a lag period followed by a notable long cold period in a good portion of the E US? -12/29/2001: no notable cold -12/16/1998: cold 1-3 weeks later -12/7/1987: cold 3-6 weeks later including intense cold 4-5 weeks later -12/31/1984: cold 2-6 weeks later including extreme cold 3 weeks later -12/3/1981: cold 1-7 weeks later including extreme cold 5 weeks later -11/24/1968: cold 2-7 weeks later -12/7/1965: cold 5-9 weeks later including extreme cold 7 weeks later -11/30/1958: cold 1-6 weeks later So, 7 of the 8 early season major SSWs were followed by cold domination starting mainly 1-3 weeks later and lasting for 2-6 weeks with a one week period of intense cold in 1/2 the cases.

Barney’s coming to town early next week: Hello, boys and girls! That’s me coming to an E US location near you!

Maybe you hit your limit on attachments. If so, you’ll need to go your attachments through your account and delete some of the already existing ones.

Speaking of Conus troughs: After having a few chilly runs in late Oct in the E US for the period around Veteran’s Day and then backing off to mild, the model consensus since Nov 1st has gotten much colder for then with the last few runs being the coldest yet! Check out this EPS progression for 0Z on Nov 9th from the 0Z 10/30 run through the 0Z 11/3 run: check out the big rise in Greenland heights along with the increased +PNA intensity: this shows that models out 10 days were clueless!

After having a few chilly runs in late Oct for the period around Veteran’s Day and then backing off to mild, the model consensus since Nov 1st has gotten much colder for then with the last few runs being the coldest yet!

Yes. So, even if there’s no more ACE, 2025 will end above the 1991-2020 average of 122.

Sep 17th through Nov 3rd highest ACE back to 1851 based on tracks on record and my ACE calculations/estimates: 1878: ~105-110 1894: ~100-110 2025: 94 1893: ~89 2017: 88 2024: 86 2016: 85 2005: 85 So, 2025 had the highest Sept 17th-Nov 3rd ACE since 1895 and the 3rd highest on record! Sept 17th-Nov 3rd ACE 2025-2010: 2025: 94 2024: 86 2023: 42 2022: 58 2021: 64 2020: 70 2019: 58 2018: 45 2017: 88 2016: 85 2015: 32 2014: 36 2013: 7 2012: 44 2011: 45 2010: 51 ————— Edit: As we move forward through the rest of the season and look at Sept. 17th+ ACE, these seasons would overtake 2025 if it has no more ACE: 1932, 2005, 2020, and 2024 with 1893, 1896, and 1961 coming very close.

New BoM RONI prog (I love that they prog RONI these days!) is slightly cooler than last week’s prog with NDJ low at -0.9 vs last week’s -0.8, possibly being aided by current very strong -IOD. Last week’s RONI progged low: -0.8 (NDJ)

Oct 30 mb QBO came in at -24.65 vs Sept’s -24.26: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

My lowest so far is ~lower 40s.

This has the ens 10 mb mean zonal wind as low as only +14 to +15 in late Nov (prior runs’ lowest were +18) and is at least tied for the highest % of members of any run so far this season with a very early season major SSW (reversal) at 25%+.

This is just one place that flooded from extreme rains coming off the nearby ridges, the well inland Mandeville to the E of Santa Cruz (which also flooded) and 20 miles E of the worst devastation from surge and winds:

Unfortunately you were right about Jamaica as it’s now up to 28 and probably still climbing as they find more bodies:

New CFS forecast for Indian Ocean Nov: still -IOD (W IO less E IO) Dec: rising quickly toward neutral, which would be consistent with climo since -IOD typically is already peaking or has already peaked @snowman19

Hey Mitch, I’d love to see it! But a huge grain of salt is advised. One year ago the CANSIPS was forecasting a Modoki Nino for now, about which I posted last year and got excited. Obviously, that failed miserably and I’ve learned from it. One year ago, CANSIPS forecasted this for Oct of 2025: Compare that to the new CANSIPS for Oct of 2026: the entire globe looks so similar that it almost looks like a copy and paste although it’s slightly warmer in Nino regions. Hopefully this new CANSIPS for next Oct won’t also verify way off! @Carvers Gap@donsutherland1@Daniel Boone

Here’s a WxBell CFS control Jan map (originally posted today by an unknown person, who added his own comments) that was reposted today at another BB by someone who got this in his FB feed (i.e., this is NOT a WxBell post..it is someone else posting a WxBell map with his own commentary): Here was my response: This is a control run (18Z of yesterday) of the WxBell CFS being forecasted out 2 months. Even calling this map less than worthless is being kind. Keep in mind that these are in C, not F. So, it gives the majority of the middle 1/3 of the US a record obliterating cold Jan. To show how silly this run is, it has Chicago at an obliterating alltime record breaking cold Jan of 14C/25F BN, which is -1F! The coldest Jan (and any month for that matter) on record back to 1873 is +10.1F (1977). So, this CFS control run is forecasting Chicago to have a Jan that is 11F colder than any month they’ve had during the last 153 years! Now here’s the very next CFS control run, the 0Z 11/2 run: Instead of mid-America having a record obliterating cold Jan, it has much warmer than normal in much of the same area! It has Chicago only 3 F AN because the WxBell CFS maps always show a funky cold spot centered on Lake Michigan (funky WxBell CFS algos is another issue for another time that I’ve posted about before). So, it has Chicago at an AN +27F vs -1F on the prior run or 28F warmer lmao! @donsutherland1