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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    1957-8, 1972-3, and 1982-3 had the most wintry precipitation of the super Ninos in the SE US. Also, 1957-8 was cold vs the NN of 72-3 and 82-3. 65-6 was also cold.
  2. GaWx
    Click on 2nd chart on right at this link: https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/ It dropped to -1.04, which is equivalent to the NOAA being in the ~-1.75 to -2 range.
  3. GaWx
    Opinions on N half of ATL metro over next 4 days…should just about everyone expect 1-3”?
  4. GaWx
    Thanks. Actually at the current point in time, I have 2026 to be most similar to 2015: check this out 13MAY2015 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 20MAY2015 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.6
  5. GaWx
    I didn’t say 1982 was W based overall. I was specifically referring to the mid May snapshot, when it was actually W based. I said, “In mid May vs 2026”, 1982 was more W based than 2026: 1982: 1+2 was coolest in mid May 12MAY1982 -0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 19MAY1982 -0.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 2026: 1+2 is warmest in mid May 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 So, as of mid May, 1982 was more W based than 2026. Later (July and beyond), I agree that 1982 clearly transitioned to E based. But my post was referring only to the snapshot as of the current point in time, mid May.
  6. GaWx
    Darwin’s higher than normal SLP is finally starting to contribute to a -SOI. Until yesterday, it’s been mainly due to low Tahiti SLP.
  7. GaWx
    Looking at mid May relative 1+2, 1997 was +2.2 and rising (it hit +3.0 in early June and +4.0 in early Aug) vs 2026 being +1.3 and rising. Otherwise, 1997 and 2026 are very close in 3, 3.4, and 4. So, that’s why I have 1997 more E based than 2026 as of the mid May snapshot. It’s all because of 1+2, which has a 0.9C diff although it’s a more volatile area since smaller. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  8. GaWx
    In mid May vs 2026: -2023 was more E based -2015 was similar -1997 was more E based -1991 and 1982 were more W based https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  9. GaWx
    1. Per that table, 2023 had a record high IOD for the months of Aug and Sep. 2. Keep in mind that IOD levels have had a notable longtime rise though. So, that biases more recent years toward a higher +IOD. Even the warm neutral (as opposed to El Niño) 2019 had a very strong +IOD in autumn/2nd strongest only to 1997! And as I already said, the very weak El Niño of 2018 still was able to have a strong +IOD.
  10. GaWx
    I’m not @snowman19but I can tell you based on the link below that 2023 was similar to 1997 in having a very strong +IOD. 2018 was next and then 1994. 1972, 1982, 2006, and 2015 were next (still moderately strong). Keep in mind: -There’s been a decided longterm rise of the IOD in this table. So, it isn’t adjusted for long term trends. That’s why 2018 had such a strong +IOD despite El Niño being weak. -IOD tends to peak ~Oct-Nov and falls off in winter, especially when strongly positive in autumn. So when moderate to strong +IOD in SON, it about always has had a notably lower DJF vs SON. https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data
  11. GaWx
    Evidently based on pro mets I follow, having relatively cooler SST anomalies near Australia compared to warmer anomalies to the east of there will be crucial. For 2023, the models, which earlier had the nice E US trough/Aleutian low that we were salivating over, were then erroneously forecasting cooler near Australia, which is pretty typical of El Niño. This strong El Niño is great news for the really bad drought the SE has been enduring.
  12. GaWx
    Latest CFS RONI peaks at +2.65 to +2.70 in OND, which would be a record high beating 1982: Latest CFS ONI is +3.25-30 in OND, meaning keeping the differential near 0.6:
  13. GaWx
    I’ve got the solution. If you want to minimize the chance for a warmer than normal winter where you live, just move down south and your chances will fall substantially!
  14. GaWx
    Thanks, Chuck. Does it say anything about the May AO, That’s projected right now to be +AO.
  15. GaWx
    FWIW, it appears as of the current GEFS 14 day forecast that we’re probably headed for a net relatively small -NAO for May as a whole.
  16. GaWx
    BoM May RONI not surprisingly reduced from +1.1 to +0.5 but later months actually a bit warmer than prior run with Oct +3.0 vs +2.7 prior run and +2.7 record for a single month (1982) 5/9/26 run: May was at +1.1 5/16/26 run: May down to +0.5 but warmer later months
  17. GaWx
    Weekly relative SSTa update: Nino 3.4 slight rise to +0.5 (Nino threshhold): Cal wk midpt…...1+2……...3….…..3.4……..…4 01APR2026 0.8 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 08APR2026 1.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 15APR2026 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 22APR2026 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.5 29APR2026 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 06MAY2026 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.5 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.6
  18. GaWx
    Pretty solid -SOIs all due to very low Tahiti SLP as Darwin is also a bit BN: 16 May 2026 1008.21 1009.70 -23.11 -7.40 -0.93 15 May 2026 1009.15 1010.00 -18.21 -6.36 -0.50 14 May 2026 1009.81 1010.30 -15.45 -5.70 -0.07 13 May 2026 1010.40 1010.50 -12.47
  19. GaWx
    My educated guess is that the current/daily RONI equivalent is ~+0.5 although like the ONI it is always moving, of course.
  20. GaWx
    Lows in this area were in the mid 50s, significantly below the low 60s normal. Dewpoints are still way down in the low 40s.
  21. GaWx
    This evening it was warm (mid to low 80s), but dewpoints were only in the upper 30s, something sometimes hardly seen in an entire May in this area. So, that along with a decent breeze meant enjoyable walking vs what’s typical for mid May. It was 100% sunny.
  22. GaWx
    This tweet is a bit deceptive because whereas 2026 ONI is, indeed, warmer than ‘97 and ‘15, ‘26 RONI is actually slightly cooler than both at the moment. Stay tuned to see what lies ahead!
  23. GaWx
    Latest CDAS suggests resumption of warming started: this is an approximation of ONI but with a slight cold bias (this implies RONI daily equivalent of ~+0.5)
  24. GaWx
    Latest CFSv2 ens AAM prog: nothing notable
  25. GaWx
    Any rain is good. And even the clouds, alone, keeping down temps and thus evaporation is beneficial. But the more beneficial rains of the last few days been much more the case further S in S GA in a places like Alma, and Valdosta, as well as in N FL places like Gainesville and especially TLH. I got a very nice 1.2” on 5/2, but only ~0.25” since due to all of the rain periods since being only a couple of hundredths at a time.
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