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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    Thanks, Anthony, for posting that. I don’t disagree with this post done by Luzerne County. What I mean by that is IF there were to happen to be an actual H5 similar to that, it could favor a snowstorm then. But, and this is very important: this is as it says just the control run for EW hour 912 (0Z on 12/9/26) rather than the EW mean for hour 912. So, this is like an op Euro at hour 912, which of course has no forecasting skill and will change notably from run to run the vast majority of the time. For that matter, I’d say this about hour 312 or even earlier of the op Euro or op anything. I know you know this, but you may not realize this is just the near worthless way out in the extended control run. They clearly want clicks and thus was a bad post by Luzerne County imho. A more informative post by Luzerne County, even though it is still way way out there, would have shown the EW means for the week covering that period, Dec 7-13: H5: 2m temps: Precip: Not the worst pattern by any means but far from great. @mitchnick
  2. GaWx
    1. There may be an increased chance at an overall significant DJF averaged -AO after a Nov SSW during El Niño. I found only 4 Nino Novs with a SSW (>15 dip of 10 hPa/60N winds to <10): 1968: dropped ~37 to ~-8 on ~Nov 27th; DJF AO -2.3 (3rd lowest of all winters since 1950) 1976: dropped ~26 to ~+4 on ~Nov 15th; DJF AO -2.6 (2nd lowest of all winters since 1950) 1979: dropped ~24 to ~+6 on ~Nov 23rd; DJF AO -0.6 (31st lowest of all winters since 1950) 2009: dropped ~17 to ~+6 on ~Nov 15th; DJF AO -3.4 (lowest of all winters since 1950) So, avg DJF AO for these 4 winters was way down at -2.2 —————— 2. At least one major SSW followed during each of these 4 winters.
  3. GaWx
    Per @Stormchaserchuck1the lag this early is typically 30-45 days. That would imply that any colder air coming down related to this SSW if it’s going to occur would likely not occur til early to mid Dec. However, there could always be colder periods not related to this SSW coming down earlier, of course.
  4. GaWx
    Latest OISST anomalies per cyclonicwx: RONI: hardly any net change since Oct 1 (ONI graph similar): reduce this a few tenths to estimate NOAA’s weeklies. This shows no signs of heading to +3.5 as of this time, especially if one considers that NOAA’s weeklies have been coming in a few tenths cooler Nino 1+2 non-relative: only a very slight net rise since Oct 1 Nino 3 non-relative: ~0.35C rise since Oct 1 Nino 4 non-relative very little net change since Oct 1 because recent rise followed a fall
  5. GaWx
    Speaking of JB, these are his analogs for NDJFM per yesterday’s free to all “Saturday Summary”:
  6. GaWx
    CANSIPS, like seasonal models in general, is highly deficient. I have the impression that it is one of the more deficient ones in general. But even the better seasonal models (like the Euro supposedly is, for example) have their deficiencies. In a way, I’m glad because if they weren’t deficient the seasonal models would be in agreement and would be pretty much right all of the time (assuming accurate initializations), and then there’d be far less of a need to have these intense forecasting discussions. Thus, there’d be far fewer than 233 pages ITT, for example.
  7. GaWx
    What’s odd is the comparison of the record high 10 hPa/60N-90N temps in Oct/Nov on NCEP (top) and NASA (bottom). NCEP looks like it has artifacts caused by algorithmic errors with two nearly vertical peaks that don’t look natural. Thus I’ve decided that the NASA graph is correct, and record high temps are being forecasted at 10 hPa/60-90N after all with 217K ~Nov 8th. NCEP Oct/Nov 2 near vertical peaks for old record high temps (black) don’t look natural/look like artifacts and thus this makes it appear nowhere near record high temps are being forecasted (green): NASA Oct/Nov old record high temps don’t have artifacts and thus new early Nov record high temps are being forecasted (red), which makes sense due to this being the first on record early Nov SSW causing record shattering low 10 hPa/60N winds:
  8. GaWx
    Record shattering low 10 hPa winds 1st 1/2 of Nov:
  9. GaWx
    Now that the multi-run CFS’ have warmed considerably in the E US for Feb vs how they were a couple of weeks ago, the above Nov Cansips run for Feb is notably colder by ~2F than the latest 3 day CFS for Feb, which is below (even after considering the ~1F colder climo being used by this TT CFS):
  10. GaWx
    I ended up with 4.3” of rainfall this month, which is slightly above normal. But I’ve gotten none since Oct 11th, which was from a feeder band with thunderstorms that woke me ~7AM from the influence of Isaias’ remnants and which was just ahead of a cold front. I got a total of 1.6” from Isaias Oct 9-11th. The wx especially early this week and last week with comfy dewpoints and sunshine was great for outdoor activities. Due to the combo of persistent breezy NE winds most of this week and the full moon early this week, there was coastal flooding near times of high tide Oct 25th-29th despite sunny wx (“King Tides”).
  11. GaWx
    Despite the historical earliest SSW and accompanying historically weak early Nov 10 hPa/60N winds, the 60-90N 10 hPa avg temp. is only going to rise ~5C and stay well below the record warmest for early Nov. So, it’s a mixed bag of sorts.
  12. GaWx
    1. Even with this rapid recovery, which is not at all uncommon for an early SSW as climo rises well into Dec, Nov as a whole would still ~tie for the lowest avg 10 hPa/60N wind (back to 1948). 2. I’ve got RONI monthly/trimonthly peaking ~+3.0C/~+2.8C now.
  13. GaWx
    Whereas the progged drop in the 10 hPa 60N winds is quite impressive, the progged overall temp. rise of the 60-90N region at 10 hPa (~5-6C and only to ~-57C vs early Nov record of -43C and others in Jan/Feb rising 15-20C) is not because it is mainly on the Russian side with less on our side of the pole:
  14. GaWx
    Comparing Oct 1st with Oct 29th, neither 3.4 nor 1+2 have changed much: But Nino 3 has had a steady rise: Nino 4 ended up ~same but that’s because after a 1st half drop it had a sharp rise last 5 days:
  15. GaWx
    After a mild DJ, Cosgrove has a frigid Feb: With the rapid decline of the El Nino and evidence for high-latitude ridging and cross-polar flow, I went in a colder direction for February to the right of the Continental Divide. The southern branch jet stream looks depressed into the Deep South and up off of the Eastern Seaboard, which would seem to favor more cold air and frozen precipitation. While I do not think that we will have a 2009 or 2015 type outcome, I lean toward a colder look than what official and major vendor sources are showing for February.
  16. GaWx
    Cosgrove’s just released Nov forecast disagrees just slightly : I think that CWG will verify much more closely based on the Euro Weeklies.
  17. GaWx
    Recent 10 day mean CFS runs have warmed for Feb: 10 days ago: Today:
  18. GaWx
    ^The 12Z UKMET has no TC or even any surface low in this area.
  19. GaWx
    I understand that. But why did Paul Roundy, whom many of us including myself greatly respect, today post that the 70 hPa signal is still E when it already switched to W (~+3) in Sept per the first source below? Does he use a source that has different values from these two? https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat The above link had it already at ~+3 in Sept. at 70 hPa and then this has it ~+8 at 70 hPa as of 10/28/26: —————————— Paul Roundy @PaulRoundy1 Message Present 70 hPa QBO signal is still easterly. It will likely be changing over the next few months.
  20. GaWx
    It changed in Sept from E (white) to W (gray) at 70 hPa and should by now already be well within the gray (say likely +5+) per this (I’m hoping this updates soon to confirm this): Edit: confirmed as it went from -10 in Aug to +3 in Sept. at 70 hPa: https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat Oct should be out in early Nov and will likely be higher than +3.
  21. GaWx
    Cosgrove for NE US: after a mild DJ is going for frigid Feb and cold Mar.
  22. GaWx
    Thank goodness the models will be coming out an hour earlier starting next week!
  23. GaWx
    Based on your graph, the 0Z 10/30 Euro is calling for the avg of Nov 1-15 to be ~-1 m/s. That’s ~16 lower than the next lowest for any Nino since 1950 (2009), which was near +15, and ~26 lower than the avg for El Niño since 1950: 26: projected -1 per 0Z 10/30 Euro op 09: +15 04: +16 58: +17 06: +18 Avg Nino +25 *Edit: 0Z 10/30 Euro ens mean ~0
  24. GaWx
    Well, well, well, the 0Z UKMET at hour 96 suddenly has a (TS or STS) form off the FL E coast as it does have somewhat of a warm core per 850/700/500 mb temps being warmer near the center than surrounding areas and it has mid-70s dewpoints surrounding the center. It forms just off of SC portion of the FL E coast and then moves mainly NNE to Wilmington, NC: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.0N 79.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 03.11.2026 96 28.0N 79.6W 1007 44 1200UTC 03.11.2026 108 28.3N 78.9W 1004 43 0000UTC 04.11.2026 120 29.0N 78.3W 1003 36 1200UTC 04.11.2026 132 30.7N 79.2W 1001 33 0000UTC 05.11.2026 144 32.1N 78.9W 1001 31 1200UTC 05.11.2026 156 35.1N 77.8W 1001 35 0000UTC 06.11.2026 168 39.5N 76.3W 1000 32
  25. GaWx
    Today’s 10 day averaged CFS RONI run for Nov has dropped a little to between +2.75 and +2.70. It also suggests that near future 10 day means for Nov will probably drop a little lower since all 8 of the blue lines, the most recent runs, are lower than today’s mean of the 40 lines whereas the red lines are more balanced. It also suggests a similar small drop for Nino 4 and Nino 3 for the same reason. However, unlike the other 3 regions, Nino 1+2’s blue lines are balanced suggesting little near future change upcoming for its Nov forecast mean thus implying probably a slightly even more E based Nino:
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