GaWx

Similar to 24 hours ago, the smoke here has returned though not to as much as yesterday. This should once again clear up this afternoon with the sea breeze.

The SOI has dropped back down to -11. It may drop further temporarily. However, the models are not suggesting a further sustained drop to the 3 day long -30ish level of April 9-11 in the immediate future. So far, the SOI hasn’t been overly impressively negative for an oncoming very strong Nino vs history.

Even if the KW were to verify as strongest in history (however long the recorded history of KWs is), why the “Very very massive yikes”? That wording implies to me that that’s worrisome. Why would that be something to get worried about? Are we in trouble? To me this is just more of his being over the top and not professional.

“Very very massive yikes” Oh no! What are we going to do? Will we survive? Webb is so over the top. Yikes about what?

The low level smoke has cleared up in the area thanks to a SE sea breeze. A temp of 79 F with a very dry 37 F dew point despite a steady SE sea breeze at KSAV is surrealistic. I took advantage of it with an enjoyable evening walk.

Today’s Euro Weeklies for 4/27-5/3 reversed to a somewhat wetter signal but not all of the way to what it had 2 days ago and the prior 8 days: Yesterday’s run: Today’s run: ATL back to >1”

Smoke is visible in this area due to the S GA fires.

Unfortunately, after nine days straight of a widespread wetter than normal signal in the SE US for the week April 27-May 3, today’s Euro Weeklies run was much drier in most of the SE: Yesterday’s run: 9th wet run in a row Today’s run: drier signal much of the SE

You’re saying how this being U.S. only limits how broadly you can interpret it. But at the same time, many of your recent posts ITT have been U.S. only! You wouldn’t even consider the intense cold in Canada in March. You’re not being consistent.

Ray and Chris, If Nino 3.4 is at +2C vs 1991-2020 and surrounding tropics are also at +2C vs 1991-2020, there’s no warm El Niño tongue to do its forcing. Thus, it’s essentially neutral rather than super El Niño and officially is neutral for RONI. So, RONI is a better measure for strength of El Niño and La Niña for that matter. Do y’all agree? @bluewave

This illustrates how much warmer the surrounding tropical areas were during 2023-4, which means a RONI significantly cooler than ONI due to the lowered contrast: Look at the much larger contrast in 1982-3:

Indeed, the CFSv2 gets Nino 3 to just above +3.0 in Nov and Dec for non-relative anomalies:

Today’s EWs continue to look good overall (certainly much better than how it’s been in the SE for most weeks in recent months) during the two weeks 4/27-5/10: 4/27-5/3: 5/4-10:

Related to what you’re saying: As JB has emphasized, the models in 2023 that had the beautiful E US trough/Aleutian low that some of us here were repeatedly posting and very excited about were also forecasting the typical BN SSTs around Australia. Had it actually been relatively cold around Australia, JB believes that the E US would have had a cold winter. But alas, it turned out warm around Australia, atypical of El Niño. Is 2026 going to end up colder around Australia like JB expects?

Today’s Euro Weeklies have ~2” of rainfall in the NW burbs of ATL and >2” in NW GA/N AL 4/27-5/3!

Hey Mitch, It’s probably to get extra clicks and likes. And then some are typically a bit over the top normally.

Thanks, snowman. Here’s the RONI version of the CFSv2, which has a peak of ~+2.25 in OND…that’s near the RONI peak of 1972-3 and 1991-2, only slightly cooler than 1997-8 and 2015-6, and a bit cooler than 1982-3: This +2.25 is a significant increase over its +2.0 OND forecast RONI peak in the run from one week ago, which is likely largely tied to its warmer April starting point:

There was also a low of 43 at KSAV, their coldest low since way back on March 19th, while KSVN had 47. The forecasted lows had been only down to the low 50s. This was the largest morning low colder than forecast bust in quite a long time in this area. Dewpoints of 37 along with light winds gave it that opportunity.

It is no surprise to those of us following and posting the dailies that the RONI equivalent for last week rose 0.4 to +0.1, the largest weekly gain since the week centered on 5/31/23, which warmed 0.5. Other regions also warmed with a warming of 0.4 in both Nino 3 and Nino 4 while 1+2 warmed by 0.2: 08APR2026 1.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 15APR2026 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 How does the +0.1 compare to 2015, 1997, and 1982 in mid April? - 2015: +1.0 but it had a head start - 1997: +0.3 - 1982: +0.3 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Today’s Euro Weeklies run is the wettest yet for the SE as a whole for Apr 27-May 3rd with ~1.25-1.75” over much of the area! And as an added bonus, the subsequent week (May 4-10) has a bit of a wetter signal than prior runs had:

Thanks, snowman. Keep in mind that Paul is comparing to 1997, when global temps were significantly cooler.

Impressive -NAO on the way:

I don’t know whether or not this was posted and figured this is as good place as any to post it. There’s a major GFS upgrade (v17) coming in Oct, which includes among many other things upgrades to its MJO forecasting:The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is proposing to upgrade the NWS operational Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) from v16 to v17 in October 2026. This upgrade will transition the system to a fully coupled Earth-system modeling framework for global weather prediction, improved model forecast performance, and expanded, enhanced products that cover all components of the Earth system. The NWS is seeking comments on the proposed changes to GFSv17 through May 15, 2026. GFSv17 introduces a coupled Earth-system model with components of the atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice, and waves. - An increased horizontal resolution from C768 (13 km) to C1152 (9 km)using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamic core. - Introduction of fractional grids along oceanic coastlines. - Improved atmospheric and land surface parameterization schemes https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/pns26-29_Science_for_GFSv17.pdf

Record tied today at KSAV at 93, 2nd 93 in a row and 3rd 90+ in a row.

Today’s Euro Weeklies almost as wet as yesterday’s for 4/27-5/3 in SE. This is ~1.1-1.7” for the SE averaged out. Fingers crossed. I’d like to stop irrigating for awhile. Plus we have restrictions.