GaWx

The “dynamic duo” of TS Jerry and the surprise, STS Karen, has added only 1.44 ACE the last 24 hours. Needless to say, they’ll both be back on the list in 2031. The season to date has climbed to only 95.24 with no large amount of ACE yet in site. I’m thinking just under 100 once these 2 storms are history.

From KCHS: the highest tide of the series is still progged to be today’s late morning tide TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING STRONG NE WINDS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW TIDAL DEPARTURES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ASTRONOMICAL TIDE VALUES ARE ALREADY ELEVATED OWING TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND PERIGEE, WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEPARTURES WILL RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO THE WEEKEND. CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HIT MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS (>8 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHEN LEVELS COULD PEAK IN THE 8.3-8.5 FT MLLW RANGE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY. FLOODING CAN OCCUR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE TIDE PEAKS. IT'S WORTH NOTING CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN REACHING MAJOR ON SATURDAY AS PURE ASTRONOMICAL VALUES START TO COME DOWN. WHILE THE MORNING TIDES ARE DOMINANT, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES. THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING (10 TO 10.5 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHEN LEVELS COULD PEAK IN THE 10.2 TO 10.4 FT MLLW RANGE. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON TIDE CYCLE, THEN THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DECREASE.

Karen’s genesis at ~44.4N is the furthest N on record for any TS or STS, beating the old record of 42N from 1952 by a notable amount! Karen had to make a statement! AL, 11, 2025101000, , BEST, 0, 444N, 334W, 40, 998, SS, 34, NEQ, 20, 50, 50, 30, 1012, 190, 20, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, TRANSITIONED, alB62025 to al112025,

Folks, As weird as this season has been, it may get weirder! A look just now at historical genesis locations on record tells me that Invest 96L, already way up near 44.5N, could easily become the furthest N genesis for either a TC or STC as the furthest N on record is 42N (unnamed storm in 1952)! And it figures this would be named Karen, which would almost certainly mean that she’d be back in 2031, part of the Karen plan to bother us again : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1952_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Five Edit: here we go! Like her or not, Karen, who complained to forecaster Papin about not being heard, looks to be coming, folks, with her chances up to 60%/60%! Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located just southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. North Atlantic (AL96): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization with a small gale-force area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the northwest of the Azores. Only a small increase in organization could result in the formation of a subtropical or tropical storm as soon as tonight, as the system moves slowly northwestward. Over the weekend, the system is expected to move over cooler waters, ending its chances of further development. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Papin She’s demanding her own thread, now! @NorthHillsWx

It’s almost certainly going to get named (whether subtropical or tropical) imho based on this special TWO and Papin being in the house! 8PM TWO will likely rise substantially from this: Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Special outlook issued to update information about the gale-force low located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores. Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located just southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. North Atlantic (AL96): Updated: Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized today in association with a gale-force area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the northwest of the Azores. If these development trends continue, a subtropical or tropical storm could form as soon as tonight while the system moves slowly northwestward. Over the weekend, the system is expected to move over even cooler waters, ending its chances of further development. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw.txt Forecaster Papin/Roberts

It looks really well organized but it is apparently over like only 21C waters. So, is it still nontropical? If it has become subtropical, it needs to be named imho.

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 Satellite images, aircraft observations, and ASCAT data indicate that Jerry is a poorly organized and strongly sheared tropical storm. The low-level center is now fully exposed and elongated, with the main area of deep convection located on the system's south and southeast sides. The initial intensity is again held at 55 kt, but that could be a little generous. The center of Jerry is less than 100 miles from the northern Leeward Islands, which is often close enough to experience strong winds. However, the ASCAT and aircraft data showed that the strongest winds are confined to a region east of the center. In fact, winds are quite light on the west side. Jerry has been moving erratically today, but smoothing through the fixes suggest that the storm is gradually turning to the right. The initial motion is now estimated to be 300/16 kt. This general motion should continue through early Friday, taking the center of the system near or over the northern Leeward Islands during that time. However, as mentioned above, the strongest winds should pass to the east of the islands due to Jerry's asymmetric structure. A turn to the north is expected to occur by late tomorrow, and that motion should continue through most of the weekend as the storm moves in the flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge. Early next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies. Jerry is expected to pass east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward asymmetry, significant impacts appear unlikely there. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement with the HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Strengthening in the short term seems unlikely given Jerry's poor initial structure. However, after the storm passes the northern Leeward Islands, the vertical wind shear could decrease some while Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass. Therefore, slow strengthening is predicted from late Friday through Sunday. The opportunity for strengthening will likely end early next week when the system moves into stronger shear and over cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward due to a combination of the storm's poor initial structure and latest guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and in steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.3N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.6N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 21.0N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 23.7N 63.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 26.5N 63.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 30.7N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 32.3N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 32.2N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Edit: A little good news is that Ft. Pulaski cane in slightly lower than predicted with it at 9.84’ vs 10.0-10.1’ prediction although tomorrow morning’s is still predicted to be the highest: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC THU OCT 09 2025 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0930 AM COASTAL FLOOD 2 ENE SULLIVANS ISLAND 32.77N 79.81W 10/09/2025 CHARLESTON SC BROADCAST MEDIA REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. VIDEO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION FROM COASTAL FLOODING AS ADDITIONAL WAVES WASH ASHORE AT THOMSON PARK IN THE BREACH INLET. 0957 AM COASTAL FLOOD 1 S TYBEE ISLAND 31.99N 80.85W 10/09/2025 CHATHAM GA LOCAL OFFICIAL CITY OF TYBEE ISLAND REPORTS THEY HAD TO CLOSE THE 19TH STREET BEACH CROSSOVER DUE TO EROSION AND SCARPING FROM COASTAL FLOODING, MAKING IT UNSAFE FOR PUBLIC ACCESS. 1012 AM COASTAL FLOOD 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W 10/09/2025 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 7.91 FT MLLW (2.14 FT MHHW) WAS OBSERVED AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE TYPICALLY OBSERVED ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 7.5 FT MLLW (1.73 FT MHHW) IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. 1036 AM COASTAL FLOOD 4 NW TYBEE ISLAND 32.03N 80.93W 10/09/2025 CHATHAM GA OTHER FEDERAL A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 9.84 FT MLLW (2.33 FT MHHW) WAS OBSERVED AT THE FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE TYPICALLY OBSERVED ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL GEORGIA COMMUNITIES WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 9.5 FT MLLW (2.0 FT MHHW) AT FORT PULASKI. ————— Edit: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 854 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1100 AM COASTAL FLOOD 3 SSW SAINT SIMONS 31.13N 81.40W 10/09/2025 AMZ450 GA MESONET THE TIDE GAUGE AT ATLANTIC COAST AT ST. SIMONS ISLAND AT VILLAGE PIER MEASURED 2.51 FT MHHW AT HIGH TIDE AT 11 AM. MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BEGINS AT 2.5 FT MHHW.

ACE as of 12Z today is at 93.8. A 100+ is still not yet near a guarantee although it remains very highly likely.

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jerry this morning, and the radar and flight-level wind data show that the storm remains lopsided with nearly all of the strong winds and convection on the system's east side. The center itself has been difficult to fix, but the data generally support a position that is located south-southeast of the previous track. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt based on a combination of the aircraft data and satellite estimates.

The cold/wedge front came through here since sunrise bringing in the start of a surge of higher NE winds and a drop of dewpoints from ~70 to ~60. The area’s high tides for this morning will peak at ~10AM-11AM which are likely being pushed higher than yesterday due to the higher NE winds. This is likely now resulting in minor coastal flooding starting in low areas like Highway 80 on the way to Tybee, which could last til ~noon. Charleston is now experiencing the start of moderate to possibly borderline major coastal flooding, which could last til ~noon. There have already been reports of flooding there:0912 AM COASTAL FLOOD 1 N CHARLESTON 32.80N 79.94W 10/09/2025 CHARLESTON SC EMERGENCY MNGR EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO COASTAL FLOODING AT THE INTERSECTION OF AMERICA ST AND COOPER ST. 0921 AM COASTAL FLOOD 1 ESE CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W 10/09/2025 CHARLESTON SC EMERGENCY MNGR EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO COASTAL FLOODING ON S MARKET ST BETWEEN CHURCH ST AND STATE ST.—————————————Late tomorrow morning’s high tides are still projected to be the worst of this event.

A 10.4 ft high tide is being forecasted for Ft. Pulaski for late Friday morning: That would be tied for the 7th highest tide on record at Ft. Pulaski going back ~90 years, tied with the 8/11/1940 hurricane. It would be only barely lower than the highest tide on record there not associated with a TC, which is the 10.45’ of 11/7/2021! The following is from this morning’s updated KCHS discussion: TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING STRONG NE WINDS RESULTING FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW TIDAL DEPARTURES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ASTRONOMICAL TIDE VALUES ARE ALREADY ELEVATED OWING TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND PERIGEE, WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEPARTURES WILL RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRING, THE POSITION OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL HIGHLY INFLUENCE THE TIDAL DEPARTURE. CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HIT MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING (>8 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING (10 TO 10.5 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY, SC SOUTHWARD TO MCINTOSH COUNTY, GA FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL NOON TODAY.

A 10.4 ft high tide is being forecasted for Ft. Pulaski for late Friday morning: That would be tied for the 7th highest tide on record there going back ~90 years, tied with the 8/11/1940 hurricane. It would be only barely lower than the highest tide on record there not associated with a TC, which is the 10.45’ of 11/7/2021! This is the longest coastal flooding discussion I can ever recall being released by KCHS:TIDES/COASTAL FLOODINGTHE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY AS THEIR IMPACTS ARE TIED TO THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE, FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR SOUTHEAST COAST PLEASE SEE THE NEXT DISCUSSION. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS KING TIDES CONTINUE, WITH ASTRO TIDES OF 7.06 FT MLLW, WHICH BY ITSELF IS ALREADY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 FOOT ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL BRING THE TIDE FORECAST OVER 8 FEET MLLW, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AT 8.1 FT MLLW. AT THESE LEVELS, WIDESPREAD AND HIGHLY IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOODING OCCURS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WITH NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE AND WATER ENTERING SOME STRUCTURES. IMPACTS ALSO INCLUDE EROSION AT AREA BEACHES, WITH LIMITED TO NO ACCESS TO DOCKS, PIERS, AND SOME ISLANDS. MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR RESULTS IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY. WHILE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPARTURES RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP, WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR LATE FRIDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE AS STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AND ASTRO TIDE FALLING TO JUST BELOW 7 FT MLLW, WHICH MAY AGAIN RESULT IN MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST TIDE IS EXPECTED AS DEPARTURES RISE TO NEAR 1.5 FT, WHICH SHOULD BRING THE TIDE GAGE UP TO NEAR 8.5 FT MLLW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BEING REACHED, MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION AND WIND SPEED AROUND HIGH TIDE WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE JUST HOW HIGH ABOVE 8 FEET WE GO, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTING IN HIGHER READINGS ABOVE 8.5 FT MLLW AND MORE NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING US CLOSER TO 8.0 FT MLLW. IF WE WERE TO REACH 8.5 FT MLLW, MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY. FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING THE ASTRO TIDE DROPS TO 5.6 FT MLLW RESULTING MINOR/MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS ASTRO TIDE PEAKS NEAR 6.72 FT MLLW, THOUGH WE'LL NEED TO SEE HOW THE TIDAL DEPARTURES END UP TRENDING AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. DUE TO THE RISK OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES, VALID FROM 8 AM THURSDAY THROUGH 3 PM FRIDAY.AT FORT PULASKI, WHICH IMPACTS AREAS FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY IN SOUTH CAROLINA DOWN TO MCINTOSH COUNTY IN GEORGIA, LATE THURSDAY MORNING'S ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 9.1 FT MLLW COMBINED WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES OF JUST UNDER A FOOT WILL BRING THE AREA RIGHT TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CRESTING AT 10 FT MLLW (MODERATE FLOOD STAGE). AT THESE LEVELS, HIGHWAY-80 CONNECTING TO TYBEE ISLAND STARTS TO SEE WATER ON IT AND NUMEROUS ROADS BECOME IMPASSABLE SUCH AS SHIPYARD ROAD, ISOLATING RESIDENTS ON BURNSIDE ISLAND.FLOODING WILL ALSO IMPACT AREAS ON TYBEE ISLAND, WILMINGTON ISLAND, THE COFFEE BLUFF COMMUNITY, OSSABAW ISLAND, SAPELO ISLAND, PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 17 SOUTH OF DARIEN. IN BRYAN COUNTY, WATER COULD BREACH DOCKS NEAR FT MCALLISTER AND FLOODING IMPACTING PORTIONS OF MILL HILL ROAD. IN LIBERTY COUNTY, FLOODING IMPACTS THE HALFMOON LANDING AREA AND CATTLE HAMMOCK ROAD NEAR BERMUDA BLUFF SUBDIVISION. WE WILL LIKELY SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS ASTRO TIDE PEAKS AT 7.74 FT MLLW, WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY CLOSE TO 2 FT. SIMILAR TO CHARLESTON, THE TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN OCCURS LATE FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE ASTRO TIDE IS AT 8.91 FT MLLW AND WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ELEVATED TIDAL DEPARTURES IS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST PEAKS AT 10.4 FT MLLW, BUT AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS GOING TO PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW HIGH ABOVE 10 FT MLLW THE TIDE GAGE WILL GO. IF THE WIND DIRECTION WERE TO SHIFT CLOSER TO NORTHERLY, TIDAL READINGS CLOSER TO 10 FT MLLW WOULD BE EXPECTED, WHEREAS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED RESULTING IN THE FORECAST OF 10.4 FT MLLW. AS THE TIDAL READINGS APPROACH 10.5 FT MLLW, COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS EXPAND ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK FROM COASTAL FLOODING LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE ASTRO TIDES FALLS TO 7.41 FT MLLW, THOUGH THERE IS A RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE TIDAL DEPARTURES TREND AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH.

If it holds together, a band of light to moderate rain with embedded heavy showers will arrive here in about an hour and last ~an hour. Edit: it dried up before it got to this area.

Your point is a good one but it isn’t due to what you think. The source, “The Cool Down” is not only not right biased, it is actually left of center: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-cool-down-bias-and-credibility/ The problem with the article isn’t due to bias but rather is due to the headline being poorly written (not necessarily a lie…just very sloppy journalism).

There’s been no correlation of -NAO in October and DJF at least since 2009: Since then 2009, 2012-4, 2019, 2021, and 2023 all had a strong (<-1) NAO in Oct. Of these, only 2009 had a -NAO for the subsequent winter. Octs have had a -NAO leaning since 2009 while winters have leaned +NAO. Actually, since 1980, there have been only 6 sub -0.25 DJF NAOs, all within ~2 years of a solar minimum. And despite the -NAO leaning of Oct, check out the sharp change overall to a +NAO leaning in Nov since 2009! Something seems to change pretty drastically between Oct and Nov related to the NAO (at least since 2009). And then the winters have been mainly +NAO as I already said. Do you or does anyone else know what has driven this? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

City sparks debate after passing new law requiring all homeowners to paint roofs same colorThe Grist reports that Atlanta has recently passed legislation that requires all new roofs to be more reflective. The changes won't be immediate; existing roofs don't have to be painted white just yet, but new buildings and replacement roofs are subject to the new law. The new roofs could cool the entire city by an average of 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit and as much as 6.3 degrees in the hottest neighborhoods. Another notable feature of the cool roof ordinance is the estimated $315 million in energy bill savings the city will realize over the next 35 years. The new roofs won't cost any more than traditional ones and may actually be cheaper, and they'll last longer because the roof won't suffer the same wear and tear under the heat. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/city-sparks-debate-passing-law-023000537.html White roofs would cool Atlanta by 2.4F? Really? Opinions?Also, how long would they stay white?

Before this morning, I was at 1.10” MTD. Getting a heavy shower the last few minutes. Edit 8:35PM on 10/8: After that heavy morning shower and some light followup rain at times the rest of the day (10/7), I ended up with ~0.9. That got me to 2” MTD, which is already near double my Sept. total! No rain fell through the daylight hours of 10/8.

It’s important to call him out due to the assumed large # of subscribers to WxBell and he being one of the, if not the, most well-known internet based pro-mets since the start of the internet age. I don’t think it’s obsession and thus don’t see it being unhealthy. A large majority of posts ITT aren’t about JB.

Per a well-known Houston tropical pro-met who often downplays, this was said 45 minutes ago:Scatterometer hit (finally) at 0930Z indicated a closed circulation and some 35kt wind. Likely already a TS. Should recurve east of the islands.

Thanks Chuck! Wow, that looks just like the 13, 14, 17, 19, and 24 composite!

Thanks, Chuck. Do you have the S Hemispheric map of how Sept of 2025 looked at 10 mb anomalywise? JB didn’t post it.

In today’s version of JB’s “I want to keep my subscribers”, JB said this: Southern Hemisphere Sept Cold Strat link to winter “Here are the 4 warmest eastern winters since the start of the century:” He then shows a very warm map comprised of DJF anomalies for 2001-2, 2011-2, 2016-7, and 2022-3. Next, he says this: “Here is the Sept Stratosphere over the S pole at 10 mb” “This is an amazing antilog to what the cold winters have looked like” So, he’s trying to say that 2013-4, 2014-5, 2017-8, 2019-20, and 2024-5 are better analogs. Although @snowman19wont like this, I’ll be fair and ask if JB may be onto something noteworthy. Putting it another way, is the Euro going to end up much too warm this DJF like it was in 2024-5 and 2020-1? Opinions?

Today the Euro ens/weeklies don’t have as much activity in the W Caribbean for midmonth as they had two days ago when I posted how much more active than climo it was. 0Z 10/4 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: note how busy it was in W Car 12Z 10/6 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: not as active in W Car

Related to this, it does look like that starting ~10/8 that the unprecedented during 2nd half of year (back to 1974 ) ~5 1/2 week long clockwise domination of the track will finally end.