GaWx

An area of pop up thunderstorms, some heavy, is moving in to this area from the SW this evening. Edit: the overnight total turned out to be an impressive ~1.3”. MTD through AM of 6/18: a wet ~6.65”.

Latest 20-60W/10-20N OHC, while much cooler than 2023-4, is still near the very warm 2013-24 avg: But Gulf is warmer than 2023 and not too much cooler than 2024:

Wow! Thanks, I hope you’re right because I want quiet, but that would mean I bust hard with my 139 ACE and 9H/3MH forecast. I have 14 NS. Keep in mind that per RONI that ASO 2014 was warm neutral and 2013 was cold neutral vs 2025’s ASO likely active season favoring weak La Niña.

I sincerely hope you’re right as I want a quiet season for a change. But “anyone that’s been paying attention knows we’re not coming anywhere these numbers”?? Named Storms: 15-19Total Hurricanes: 7-9Major Hurricanes: 2-3ACE Index: 120-150 Based on what are you saying you know we’ll be nowhere close to these mainly only slightly above avg #s? We’re headed toward a weak Niña per RONI, which favors more active than avg and Atlantic temps are near the 1991-2020 avg, not cool.

JB is actually calling for a not as active season as last year with ACE of 120-150, whose midpoint of 135 is only slightly above the ~122 avg of 1991-2020 along with only slightly above avg 7-9 H and near avg 2-3 MH: Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Forecast Named Storms: 15-19 Total Hurricanes: 7-9 Major Hurricanes: 2-3 ACE Index: 120-150

Getting a small but pretty potent pop up now. Probably will be quick unless it spreads out or others follow. Edit: That short popup has been quickly followed by a line of heavy thunderstorms coming in with frequent CTG lightning. That ended up lasting a couple of hours with more filling in after the line. My initial rough estimate for today is 1”+ after yesterday’s ~3”. Interestingly, although yesterday’s was much heavier, I had no rain in the garage from it. However, this evening’s did give me a decent amount in one corner though not too bad. Total rainfall on 6/15: ~1.1”

The latest Euro Weeklies, which go through July 13th, have mainly quiet in the Atlantic basin and near normal ACE in the E and W Pacific. If there are no TCs by July 13th, this would mean the quietest start in the Atlantic since 2009! Other years with no NS through July 13th since 1995 were 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004. I really wish I could say otherwise (I’d love to finally see a weak season), but I still expect an above normal season. The Atlantic tropics, though not nearly as warm as 2023-4, are still plenty warm enough and expected to continue that way. Also, we’re looking at a ~weak La Niña during ASO per RONI. That combo typically correlates to active seasons including for the corridor from the NE Caribbean through Bahamas, FL, SE US, and E Gulf though I’m still hoping it won’t be nearly as bad there as the terrible 2024, which is suggested by the last two monthly Euro seasonal outlooks.

Today had 3 periods of rain: -During the afternoon, a moderate, fairly short thunderstorm with a good bit of nearby CTG lightning but only modest rainfall. -A band of very heavy thunderstorms came through during the evening that lasted longer likely producing 2”+ of rainfall. My street flooded and there was this: 0700 PM FLOOD SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W 06/14/2025 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS SEVERAL FLOODED STREETS ACROSS SAVANNAH: VICTORY DRIVE, HABERSHAM STREET, PRICE STREET, BULL STREET, WATERS AVENUE, HODGSON MEMORIAL DRIVE, EISENHOWER DRIVE, AND DERENNE AVENUE. -Areas of mainly light rain came through a little later. Edit: After looking at Cocorahs, I estimate a total of a whopping ~3” yesterday here! This gets me to a wet ~4.25” for June 1-13. May was also very wet here with 8.7”, more than double the normal.

Why did they wait til the mid 90s to finally start warming?

Crossing my fingers that FL gets a much needed break with that idea of further E tracks. But Carolinas look dicey on that.

Chris, But the Atlantic anomalies overall have cooled significantly rather than warmed vs 2024.

D’Aleo thinks the +AMO dominated regime may be ending within the next couple of years based on the big cooling of much of the Atlantic over the last 12 months fwiw.

Early on Sunday afternoon (6/8) we got ~0.5” from a thunderstorm that lasted ~30 minutes. We just had a 15 minute long quick moving thunderstorm this morning (6/10) moving within the bottom of a line moving ENE. Edit: I roughly estimate 0.5” on 6/10.

Hey Charlie, Do you have any changed thoughts regarding the possibility of Hunga Tonga’s modern times unprecedented thrusting of so much water way up into the atmosphere being the main reason 2023 global temps had the sharp rise?

I agree 100% in the Pacific. But why the drastic cooling in a large part of the Atlantic, which is what he’s addressing? Maybe this is the start of a transition to -AMO?

Yesterday from Joe D’Aleo at WxBell: “Ocean(s) in transition? The SSTA last 30 days (-15 to +15C) Comparing 2025 to 2024: January to May 2024 vs 2025: Is this the start of a transition back to a negative AMO? The ocean changes modes on a multi-decadal cycle - 30 years of a positive this cycle followed a cold of 30 years, which followed 40 years of warm, which followed what appears 25 years of cold. The cold AMO/NAO/AO favors colder (US) regardless of ENSO.”

Yesterday from Joe D’Aleo at WxBell: “Ocean(s) in transition? The SSTA last 30 days (-15 to +15C) Comparing 2025 to 2024: January to May 2024 vs 2025: Is this the start of a transition back to a negative AMO? The ocean changes modes on a multi-decadal cycle - 30 years of a positive this cycle followed a cold of 30 years, which followed 40 years of warm, which followed what appears 25 years of cold. The cold AMO/NAO/AO favors colder (US) regardless of ENSO.”

The June 2025 Euro seasonal outlook is ~same as May 2025 with near normal. I still think that’s probably somewhat underdone but it is much less active than Euro’s June 2024 seasonal outlook, including near the US: June 2025 JASOND ACE: 110% of 1993-2024 June 2024 JASOND ACE: 200% June 2025 for JASOND: SE US/Gulf near to slightly less active than 1993-2015 avg June 2024 for JASOND: SE US/TX significantly more active than 1993-2015 avg

Here’s the global surface air temp. graph going through 5/31/25:

Good catch, the biggest April to May QBO drop on record! Based on the past, the odds are increased that it will dip to sub -20 by winter and possibly even by autumn. But not for certain, of course.

Thanks. That shower here late last night was just a quick, isolated rain. But late this morning it has been much more widespread in SE GA. Edit: All of that rain along with some light rain the subsequent days added to ~0.75”

Red hot news bulletin (followup): Not at all surprisingly based on past patterns, the 30 mb QBO dropped to negative in May (-4.59) from April’s +6.94: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

I still say that the predominantly +3/2014-7/2016 during El Niño is similar to 6/1957-2/1959.

Without having any idea that this would occur, I got a heavy shower suddenly at ~1:45AM (6/4) but it ended after no more than 5 minutes. I looked on radar and saw that it came from a rather unusual direction, from offshore moving WNW.

As a near coast resident, I do fear the tendency of storms developing further W and not having as much chance to recurve E of the US though it is still plenty warm in the MDR. The projected RONI based weak La Niña like last year is not comforting as far as favored tracks and suggests another significantly impactful season on the US is quite possible. Of course, with last season being so horribly bad for the SE US, the odds are that this one won’t be nearly as bad there. Fingers crossed, especially for FL, which can’t take another horrendous year. Even my area had BOTH the worst flooding from a storm (Debby) in at least 8 years as well as widespread multi day outages (Helene) (worst since 1979/David). I’d love nothing more than another 2013, 2010, 2001, or 2000. Most of those years would also make you happy and without all of the destruction.