GaWx

Very serious, longtracked (been going 1 hour+!!) violent tornado moving N at 25 toward Allendale Cty of SC: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 340 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... SCREVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT. * AT 340 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUNTERS, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BURTONS FERRY LANDING AND MILBURY.

Very serious, longtracked (been going 1 hour+!!) violent tornado moving N at 25 toward Allendale Cty of SC: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 340 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... SCREVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT. * AT 340 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUNTERS, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BURTONS FERRY LANDING AND MILBURY.

The dewpoints here are way up in the high 70s, something very rare this late into fall. That with the 86 temp gives a heat index way up at 99-100 on Oct 10th! It feels awful! The shift from E to SE winds allowed this: CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS SAVANNAH ARPT PTSUNNY 87 77 72 S17G28 29.95F HX 99 HUNTER AFB MOSUNNY 86 79 79 SE17 29.92F HX 99TC 30 Wind gusts have picked back up with the increasing sunshine and winds at 5K feet being 30 knots (cumulus clouds are hauling) from the S along with strong SW winds at H5+ are setting up a potential for severe thunderstorms in this general area later this afternoon/eve.

*I’ve received 0.75” so far from Isaias’ influence.* I just went outside and it felt like a midsummer steam bath! Then I saw that dewpoints are way up in the high 70s, something very rare this late into fall. That with the 86 temp gives a heat index way up at 99-100 on Oct 10th! The shift from E to SE winds allowed this: CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS SAVANNAH ARPT PTSUNNY 87 77 72 S17G28 29.95F HX 99 HUNTER AFB MOSUNNY 86 79 79 SE17 29.92F HX 99 Wind gusts have picked back up with the increasing sunshine and winds at 5K feet being 30 knots (cumulus clouds are hauling) from the S along with strong SW winds at H5+ thus setting up a potential for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon/eve. The severe risk is only “slight”, but I don’t even recall that here anytime recently:

Fantastic forecast, Ray, that was spot on other than being slightly too slow!

I’m glad the expected last minute weakening verified well saving from a MH landfall, but realize getting cat 1-2 H effects is of course still a big impactful event (I know first hand). Interestingly per Dr. Knabb, that same strong shear that caused the dramatic weakening just before landfall actually caused the worst of the thunderstorms/wind gusts (solid cat 2 gusts) to be in your area in the NW eyewall (where Stephanie Abrams great coverage was). It’s almost as if the NW eyewall weakening lagged behind. She said she had never seen so much lightning in an eyewall, which typically has limited lightning due to the upper atmosphere being too warm for as much ice in the clouds vs typically much more lightning in outer bands as Dr. Knabb explained. I thought TWC coverage was excellent between her, Cantore showing storm surge and sudden shift to warming S winds off Gulf in E eyewall, and Dr. Knabb.

Due to the pressure gradient between Isaias’ remnants and the wedge, along with sig. ongoing rain, together with a secondary astronomical tidal max due to the new moon, the NE winds were long and strong enough to produce moderate coastal flooding in CHS and minor S of there to Ft. Pulaski. 0842 AM COASTAL FLOOD 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W 10/10/2026 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 7.76 FT MLLW (2.00 FT MHHW) WAS OBSERVED AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE COASTS OF CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 7.5 FT MLLW (1.74 FT MHHW) IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

In my area overnight, we got some beneficial rainfall from rapidly N moving scattered convection. Per Cocorahs, there was ~0.75” in the area. I’ll check my gauge later. Winds were brisk but no big deal as expected (highest gusts low 20s). Sun is peaking through. The sun will eventually lead to sig. instability, which will fuel scattered or bands of tstorms this afternoon, some of which could be severe with a couple of tornadoes possible. Edit: 0.75” confirmed

Per this chaser who was right in the eye, the lowest SLP was 976.2 mb: https://twitter.com/JustonStrmRider/status/2108736015250702614?

What was the actual lowest SLP at landfall ? -Lowest Destin SLP was at 8:20PM CDT per this link at ~982 mb (28.99” altimeter setting): -As this shows, winds were NNE at landfall time at Destin. That says landfall was just E of Destin. -Per Dr. Knabb per Cantore’s report of winds shifting to S off the Gulf at Miramar Beach before and during landfall time says landfall was just W of Miramar Beach. -There are 8 miles between those 2 locales. Thus, a good estimate is that landfall was 4 miles E of Destin. -How much lower than Destin’s 982 mb would SLP be 4 miles to the E? Anyone have a guess as to the gradient over those 4 miles W of the center?

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 900 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IMPACTING THE GULF COAST AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND FLASH FLOODING SPREAD INLAND... ...900 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... NWS Doppler Radar data and surface observations indicate that Hurricane Isaias now has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (160 km/h) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 978 mb (28.88 inches). A NOAA National Ocean Service station in Panama City Beach, Florida, recently reported a wind gust to 83 mph (134 km/h) and a sustained wind of 72 mph (116 km/h). This will be the final hourly position update for Isaias. The next full forecast advisory for Isaias will be issued at 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 86.4W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Camposano/Reinhart/Cangialosi

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 830 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DESTIN FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IMPACTING THE GULF COAST AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND FLASH FLOODING SPREAD INLAND... NWS Doppler Radar data indicate that Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, around 830 PM CDT (0130 UTC) with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.67 inches). A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge in Panama City Beach, Florida, recently reported a water level of 5.6 feet above mean higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. A wind gust to 116 mph (187 km/h) with a sustained wind of 91 mph (146 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station near Santa Rosa Sound, Florida. A wind gust to 100 mph (161 km/h) with a sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherSTEM station near Pensacola, Florida. SUMMARY OF 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 86.5W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Camposano/Reinhart/Cangialosi

Landfall Destin officially just now.

Check this out as of 9PM EDT at Destin with center just offshore likely just to their SE based on NE wind: DESTIN LGT RAIN 71 70 96 NE39G67 29.08 FOG That’s 984 mb.

Per Dr. Knabb: The strongest winds are currently on the NW-W side of the center due to how the strong southerly wind shear is interacting. Interesting.

Josh just posted from Okaloosa Island, FL: https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1515937730580171&id=iCyclone

New JMA H5 winter maps from NE forum post: this is what it appears to me that the maps are showing DJF: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO Dec: slight +PNA, ~neutral EPO, slight -AO to neutral AO, slight +NAO Jan: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO Does anyone disagree with my opinion on what these maps are showing for these indices?

The last 10 days of the PDO have had a decent rise overall though nothing extreme:

Thanks. Whereas for TCL they’ve got a TS warning, they didn’t ever predict TS conditions for ATL. Instead they have a high wind warning:

The main issue some of us have is the double standard of concern in Tuscaloosa vs virtually no concern in ATL (at least earlier…maybe this will change). The forecasted conditions for during the GT/Duke game in ATL Sat. afternoon are far worse than those for even the tailgating period (6 hrs before kickoff) in Tuscaloosa. Furthermore, the forecast for ATL is actually quite a big deal, which along with thunderstorm chances has a high wind warning and thus would be far worse than the typical breeziness of a Miller A:

The point some of us have been making is the double standard being applied regarding the concern for the attendees in Tuscaloosa vs that for those in Atlanta: Tuscaloosa: SATURDAY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS, COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. Atlanta: SATURDAY SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. ————— As one can see, the forecast is actually much worse for the afternoon gametime in ATL for Duke/GT than it is not just for the evening gametime in Tuscaloosa but even during the tailgating time in Tuscaloosa well before the game even starts! So, gusts to 50 with possible thunderstorms/heavy rain and even a slight chance for a tornado in ATL for the game itself vs gusts only to 30, much lighter rain, and no thunderstorms in Tuscaloosa during the entire PM tailgating period well before the game even starts! @PhiEaglesfan712@vortex95

For those who didn’t realize it, 1905’s very late 1st on record H was similarly powerful to Isaias with it peaking as a MH (cat 3) and that was also during El Niño. *Edited: it was not the last storm of the season at genesis but was when it degenerated below TC status at its end.

ATL’s looking worse right now at Duke/GT gametime than Tuscaloosa’s looking even during most of afternoon well before kickoff. Why with all of the warranted concern for GA/AL are the media hardly, if any, talking about any concern about Duke-Georgia Tech in ATL? Can you explain this double standard? Well, I realize way more interest and of course $ are involved with GA/AL, but that’s beside the point of concern about human beings wherever they are.

So, with all of the talk about the safety of folks in Tuscaloosa for GA/FL (which I agree is warranted), why doesn’t the media seem to care much about the safety of folks going to Bobby Dodd Sat afternoon, which will likely have worse conditions than Tuscaloosa in the mid to late afternoon (gametime in ATL) because worst conditions at Tuscaloosa should end by early afternoon. This is such a silly/stupid double standard. —————— FFC’s not playing around: .FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... —————— SATURDAY SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

Josh is in Pensacola as he chose Isaias over Simon but wishes there were two of him so they could chase both lol: https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2108365382130045125