GaWx

Don, Am I looking at that graph right? Has virtually all of the warming at Phil been since the late 1980s?

Thanks for your replies! I’m all for open discussion of alternative ideas and that’s why I posted this and others from him. If the alternative idea appears to be plausible, it would probably be supported to an extent. OTOH, if not, it would likely be refuted. Also, I feel it’s important for others to be aware of what’s being spread to so many people (Weather Bell subs in this case) whether plausible or not. Thus, I expect to continue posting Dr. V stuff. In this case, Dr. V’s idea has been refuted several times here. That helps others like myself to be more knowledgeable about the doubtfulness of the plausibility of his idea. Not only that, I learned thanks to bdgwx about OMICS and its fraud. Today, JB posted this as a followup: I'm now going to incorporate this into my (forever) paper which is now in its second draft. The finished product will then be submitted to The International Journal of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resources, a peer-reviewed journal that has accepted other papers I've written in the past (in fact, they solicit me on a regular basis for contributions). That paper will then get passed on to Tom Nelson, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, and my Congressional Representative, Mike Haridopolis. That will hopefully get the geothermal hypothesis onto a higher plane. The bolded adds even more to my doubts about Dr. V. Why? I hate to bring politics into this, but Zeldin and Haridopolis are far righties, which imho has been the source of a lot of misinfo of all kinds, including CC. I’m saying that as a moderate independent as I’m not a liberal or a Democrat. Also, Thomas Nelson is the producer of “Climate The Movie: The Cold Truth”, which tries to minimize the significance of AGW. @donsutherland1

A hurricane is possible by Mon:Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 1NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025500 PM AST Sat Aug 23 2025The trough of low pressure (AL90) located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda has become better organized today. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined center during the past couple of hours, with a central pressure of about 1010 mb. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt, based on earlier scatterometer data which had a few believable tropical-storm-force wind vectors, and a Dvorak classification of 35 kt from TAFB.The initial motion is north or 010/13 kt. A north-northeastward motion is anticipated during the next couple of days with a slow increase in forward speed due to Fernand moving around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The storm will likely accelerate to the northeast thereafter as the system gets caught up in faster mid-latitude flow, well to the southeast of Newfoundland. The global models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is on the eastern side of the guidance, closest to the HFIP Corrected- Consensus Model (HCCA).Fernand has about 48 hours over warm waters within generally light shear to intensify. There is a fair bit of mid-level dry air, however, which could hinder any rapid strengthening, so the intensity forecast will just show a more gradual increase in winds. All of the models peak the system as an upper-end tropical storm or category 1 hurricane, and the NHC forecast is just shy of a hurricane as a peak. After Monday, Fernand should weaken due to the influences of cooler waters and increasing shear, and the storm will likely become post-tropical in 3-4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 23/2100Z 27.2N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 24/0600Z 29.0N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH24H 24/1800Z 31.4N 60.3W 50 KT 60 MPH36H 25/0600Z 33.6N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH48H 25/1800Z 35.8N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH60H 26/0600Z 38.2N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH72H 26/1800Z 41.3N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH96H 27/1800Z 47.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Blake

We’re apparently about to have TS Fernand a few hundred miles SSE of Bermuda. Also, Invest 99L is significantly more active on the 12Z Euro ens as it gets to the W Caribbean in ~a week. If it actually does develop there, watch out!

It appears they’re going right to TS Fernand based on this: AL, 06, 2025082318, , BEST, 0, 266N, 617W, 35, 1010, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0, 1015, 110, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FERNAND, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, TRANSITIONED, alB02025 to al062025,

In addition to the 12Z Icon being still another of its runs developing this in the W Caribbean, the 12Z Euro ens is significantly more active:

This is the 1st time I can recall them going near 100% and them not designating it a TC at the next 6 hourly normal issuance time! If they’re waiting for recon, why not go 90%? Or why not issue a PTC advisory?

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure has formed about 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight, with further intensification to a tropical storm likely on Sunday while the low moves northward over the southwestern Atlantic. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches could be still required later today. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

After light rain earlier this evening, heavier rain has developed here. Edit: Related to the above: FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 757 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025 ..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, CHATHAM AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, JASPER. * WHEN...UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 756 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA. BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. - ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING. - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... POOLER, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, HUTCHINSON ISLAND, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, WINDSOR FOREST, WILMINGTON ISLAND, COFFEE BLUFF, SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MONTGOMERY. ——————- Edit: FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 958 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025 GAC051-SCC053-230300- /O.EXT.KCHS.FA.Y.0122.000000T0000Z-250823T0300Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHATHAM GA-JASPER SC- 958 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025 ..FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, CHATHAM AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, JASPER. * WHEN...UNTIL 1100 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 958 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA. BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. - ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING. - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... POOLER, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, HUTCHINSON ISLAND, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, WINDSOR FOREST, WILMINGTON ISLAND, COFFEE BLUFF, SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MONTGOMERY. ———- Edit: I ended up with ~2” (backyard is soaked yet again) bringing me to ~16.65” MTD!!

Fwiw, the 12Z JMA very similarly to the Icon has a TD that forms on 8/29 in the NW Caribbean and moves NW toward the N. Yucatan:

The 12Z Icon has this as a 997 TS at 180 in the W Caribbean moving WNW:

From Dr. Viterito (via JB), the person who thinks that warmer oceans (and thus GW) has been caused mainly by undersea volcanic activity: I’m putting this out for discussion purposes, not to take sides with him: Arctic Ice Comment from Dr V ..And now we have yet another research nugget that needs to be explored further. This recent article by Matt Vespa points to the fact that Arctic sea ice has not declined since around 2005. So, the Climate Change Narrative Just Took a Broadside. Want to Guess What It Was Over? A deeper dive into the data from Climate Reanalyzer paints a slightly different picture. Specifically, it pinpoints the year when the decline stopped as 2007. Here is their chart: Climate Reanalyzer, University of Maine As a correlate, the Mid-Ocean Spreading Zone Seismic Activity (MOSZSA) matches up VERY well. Here is that chart: Clearly, the "trough" in Arctic sea ice extent began the same year (2007) MOSZSA plateaued i.e., 2007!!! Too many things correlate strongly with MOSZSA: global temperatures, global sea surface temperatures, Arctic sea ice, the AMO Index, oceanic heat content, Western Pacific thermocline depths, Kuroshio intensification, and other responsive geophysical phenomena. More to follow...

Erin’s ACE is now crossing 32 and is headed to ~34 for its likely total. That’s pretty impressive and it has brought 2025 ACE up to 12th highest for the date of the last 75 years.

2AM TWO: up slightly from 50/50 to 50/60: 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about a thousand miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remain well organized. This system could become a tropical depression at any time, but the latest satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system does not have a well-defined circulation center. The system is expected to move into a less conducive environment later today through Saturday, but could reach a slightly more favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent ————— There’s lots of wx bb chatter that suggests this is already a TC. Hmmm.

Up from 60/80 to 70/80: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. 1. Near the Leeward Islands (AL90): An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located a couple hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high..70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent

The rain is still falling lightly this evening. Though a portion of the W part of the county received ~3”+ (centered on the junction of I-16 and I-95) necessitating a flash flood warning, my amount so far hasn’t added to that much…probably ~0.25” so far. That gets me to an amazing ~14.65” MTD with none of that from a TC! But that’s not the end of it!From KCHS NWS office, a flood watch has been issued for its entire area:SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY PASS THROUGH ALOFT. THIS COUPLED WITH BUILDING PWATS OF 2.25-2.50" AND WEAK TO MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION WHERE WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL SUPPORT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, POSSIBLY >3 IN/HR AT TIMES, GIVEN THE RICH, TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE CORRIDOR ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A REIDSVILLE-SPRINGFIELD-WALTERBORO-MONCKS CORNER LINE WHERE 20CM SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ARE RUNNING IN THE >98TH PERCENTILE AS OF THE 18 AUGUST ANALYSIS. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL MOISTURE PROFILES IN PLACE AND THE INTENSE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES THAT ARE POSSIBLE, THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL CORRIDOR WHERE THE EVENING HIGH TIDES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD ENHANCED THE FLOOD THREAT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. STORM TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 2-4" WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6".

I’ve been getting the first thunderstorm since Sunday (8/17) since ~6:45PM in a band coming eastward that had collided with the sea-breeze front. Rain rates have been mainly moderate but with some heavy. Before this rain, I had already been up to a whopping 14.4” MTD! Light rain is still falling. I’ve gotten ~0.25” today so far. That gives me ~14.65” MTD. It may be ending shortly.

Indeed, incorporating size, this is a MH.

Now the hurricane models will run. This could possibly affect Bermuda directly but would there even be much to it?

Thanks as I missed those 60s dewpoints at KSAV Mon afternoon. So, I need to retract what I said about no dewpoints below the low 70s since June. Where I live is closer to the coast and thus typically has higher dewpoints, but not that much higher. Thus I just edited my earlier post for this correction. My point was that the bulk of the cool, dry airmasses of earlier August didn't reach down here. That I’m still saying has been the case.

1. Erin will end up with ~33-4 ACE, which you didn’t forecast. Currently, 2024 has sharply risen to 15th of the last 75 years and it will rise several positions from there before Erin winds down, when total ACE should be ~36-38: 2. It does appear quiet ~8/24-9/7 on the ensembles/Euro Weeklies and there could easily be below normal ACE through that period. But even if so and allowing for ~5 added ACE by 9/7, ACE would still be near normal (in the 40s). 3. The Euro Weeklies have then been showing an increase in activity (likely MJO related), especially during 9/15-21: 9/8-14: 10-11 ACE 9/15-21: 13-15 ACE If these verify well, ACE would then be in the 60s. 4. The tendency in recent years, especially during cold ENSO has been for a more active late Sept through Nov. 2024 had its most active period late Sept-mid Oct. If that occurs again, 2025 would end up as another active season.

For the record, the NHC/model consensus were significantly too far east as recently as 96 hours out. For example, this is from the 11PM Fri 8/15 NHC discussion:FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 16/0300Z 19.5N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH12H 16/1200Z 20.2N 61.6W 100 KT 115 MPH24H 17/0000Z 20.9N 64.2W 115 KT 130 MPH36H 17/1200Z 21.7N 66.3W 125 KT 145 MPH48H 18/0000Z 22.9N 67.9W 120 KT 140 MPH60H 18/1200Z 24.0N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH72H 19/0000Z 25.6N 69.8W 110 KT 125 MPH96H 20/0000Z 28.9N 70.5W 105 KT 120 MPH120H 21/0000Z 33.5N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPHLink: Hurricane ERIN Erin’s center ended up going 180 miles west of 70.5W as it went to 73.7W! So, later at its closest pass, the center ended up ~half the distance from the OBs vs what was forecasted early last weekend. Had this 70.5W furthest W forecast verified well, there wouldn’t have been TS conditions on the OBs.

The Outer Banks had sustained TS force winds overnight through 8AM despite the center being 200 miles to the SE/ESE/E! 1. From 2AM NHC advisory: “A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at the U.S. Coast Guard Station Hatteras.” 2. From 5AM NHC advisory: “A WeatherFlow station at Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).” 3. From 8AM NHC advisory: “A WeatherFlow station at Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).”

It would be nice if it would also get down here for a change. We still have had no dewpoints below the lower 70s since June. **8/21/25 Edit for correction: I totally missed that KSAV had hourly dewpoints as low as 62 during the afternoon of August 18th in between the morning and evening/overnight 70s. So, technically, I’m wrong despite my dewpoints often being a few degrees higher due to being closer to the coast than KSAV.

Barry, I agree because that’s me.