GaWx

I thought it was too early when we discussed this a couple of weeks ago and it’s still obviously far from a done deal, but the chances of your bold prediction verifying are certainly increasing as the quiet continues. Like they’ve been showing almost every day for over a week and although they don’t get to above the active avg ACE like they showed 2 weeks ago, the Euro Weeklies still end the below avg ACE starting with the week that begins Sept 22nd. It rises to near the 20 year active avg then and that lasts for the 3 weeks going through Oct 12th. It still has the most active week of the next 4 to be 9/22-28 (with ~13.5 ACE) and the 2nd most active being 9/29-10/5. It’s projecting ~40 ACE 9/15-10/12. That would bring total ACE up to ~80. That would keep season to date ACE well below the active era’s avg of ~103 as of then.

Like they’ve been showing almost every day for over a week and although they don’t get to above the active avg ACE like they showed 2 weeks ago, the Euro Weeklies still end the below avg ACE starting with the week that begins Sept 22nd. It rises to near the 20 year active avg then and that lasts for the 3 weeks going through Oct 12th. It still has the most active week of the next 4 to be 9/22-28 (with ~13.5 ACE) and the 2nd most active being 9/29-10/5. It’s projecting ~40 ACE 9/15-10/12. That would bring total ACE up to ~80. That would keep season to date ACE well below the active era’s avg of ~103 as of then.

12Z UKMET: another run with an MDR TS (this one moving WNW) from this wave: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.7N 32.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2025 84 12.7N 32.7W 1010 27 1200UTC 15.09.2025 96 13.7N 35.4W 1008 29 0000UTC 16.09.2025 108 13.9N 37.7W 1006 28 1200UTC 16.09.2025 120 15.2N 39.8W 1005 38 0000UTC 17.09.2025 132 17.1N 41.3W 1004 40 1200UTC 17.09.2025 144 18.6N 43.3W 1003 42 0000UTC 18.09.2025 156 20.4N 44.8W 1003 45 1200UTC 18.09.2025 168 21.3N 46.7W 1003 41

Another UKMET run (0Z) with an MDR TS headed for an early recurve:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.2N 26.1WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 14.09.2025 72 11.7N 26.9W 1009 281200UTC 14.09.2025 84 13.1N 30.4W 1008 300000UTC 15.09.2025 96 13.2N 32.8W 1007 301200UTC 15.09.2025 108 14.4N 35.6W 1006 310000UTC 16.09.2025 120 15.7N 37.7W 1005 351200UTC 16.09.2025 132 16.8N 39.8W 1004 410000UTC 17.09.2025 144 18.8N 40.8W 1003 451200UTC 17.09.2025 156 19.9N 42.2W 1002 440000UTC 18.09.2025 168 21.1N 43.3W 1002 46

The last 2 Euro Weeklies runs, though not getting back to very active levels like they had for late this month at least as of yet, have suggested 9/22-28 to be the most active week ACEwise of the upcoming weeks with 9/29-10/4 being the 2nd most active.

I as one in a vulnerable location that was pretty heavily affected by two storms last year and in a region (SE) that was badly affected by several devastating hurricanes last year am enjoying this boring for tracking but thankfully safe period. I look at the secondary peak more as a regional peak of origin in/near the W Caribbean. That area of genesis peaks for the season the last week in September through mid October. Likely due to CC, this secondary peak is getting more intense and later. The bad thing about it is that: -many of these storms get very strong due especially to the lingering warmth in the W Caribbean and S Gulf -a very high % of these unfortunately make landfall in one or more locations due to the geography of that region. A lot of luck is needed to avoid that. -Due to these reasons, there have been a number of storms with horrific effects from this region during this timeframe and even well into November. Some examples of the even later storms include Eta of 2020, Iota of 2020, Paloma of 2008, Noel of 2007, Michelle of 2001, Mitch of 1998, Joan of 1988, and the 1932 Cuban hurricane among others. Also, Lenny of 1999 and Rafael of 2024 weren’t anything to sneeze at. And Sandy of 2012 originated down there late in October.

Like the 0Z run had (I didn’t post it), the 12Z UKMET continues with the MDR TS, very likely headed for a recurve in the middle of the ocean: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.3N 34.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.09.2025 120 14.2N 35.3W 1008 28 0000UTC 16.09.2025 132 15.1N 38.9W 1007 30 1200UTC 16.09.2025 144 16.7N 41.0W 1006 36 0000UTC 17.09.2025 156 17.7N 42.9W 1005 41 1200UTC 17.09.2025 168 19.2N 45.2W 1003 44

Snowman, thanks. Do you have a link to a table of monthly IOD history?

Followup: Although the 0Z UKMET dropped this in the middle of the MDR, today’s 12Z brings it right back in a similar position with similar timing also moving mainly WNW. This run gets to a low end TS just after 156 hours: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.2N 33.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2025 132 13.2N 33.4W 1010 27 1200UTC 15.09.2025 144 14.5N 36.3W 1009 29 0000UTC 16.09.2025 156 15.2N 38.9W 1008 33 1200UTC 16.09.2025 168 16.4N 42.0W 1006 38

Forecasting a cold winter in the E US has at least short term value to the forecaster in that it sells clicks and likes and also is what even some pros are biased toward. That being said, I don’t know anything about met. Travis Roberts’ record and possible biases. Does anyone here have any info about that? Has he forecasted warm winters before? Whether or not he has would say a lot.

Chris, What are your thoughts about what met. Travis Roberts said about the E US winter potential for cold/trough similar to Jan of 2014 in the video (linked by Anthony above) due to the very warm water in the NE Pacific that’s similar to 2014? My concern is that 2014 didn’t also have that very warm water going back to Japan thus meaning it isn’t an apples to apples comparison. I thought that the 2014 warm water was heavily concentrated in the NE Pacific and thus was the primary cause for that Jan 2014 cold E US. But in contrast now, the warm water isn’t just concentrated in the NE Pacific. Related to this, the August 2013 PDO wasn’t nearly as negative with it at -1.56 vs August 2025’s -3.23:

Yeah, I’ve been reading discussions elsewhere regarding CC’s general effect on tropical seasons: fewer storms but stronger extremes. Well, we’ve had the stronger extremes with a whopping 11 cat 5s just since 2016! Compare that to the prior 11 cat 5s occurring over a 27 year period meaning a near tripling of their frequency. But what’s not yet evident is the drop in the avg # of storms as there have been 14+ every year since 2016 with 168 storms 2016-24 or an avg of a whopping 19 storms/year! Compare that to only an avg of 14 storms the prior 9 years and 15 during the 9 years before that: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes

-It’s still rather active in the Gulf just beyond midmonth on the 12Z ensemble runs. -New Euro Weeklies are similar to yesterday with below avg ACE weeks 1-2 followed by a rise to NN. Gulf activity is BN weeks 1-2 rising to NN or above weeks 3-4.

Indeed, August rose substantially from July’s record low of -4.12 to -3.23. It appears to still be in a rising trend for now.

Middle of MDR moving WNW to W as a strengthening TD early next week underneath a stout high:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.9N 32.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2025 156 15.0N 33.7W 1012 27 1200UTC 15.09.2025 168 15.1N 37.9W 1010 33

Any snowy Dec (8”+ ) followed by dud? I’ll check now: Indeed, your idea verifies well! I have to go all of the way back to 1945-6 to find the last snowy Dec not having 16”+ Jan+! Dec had 15.6” and then they had only 12.1” Jan+. -Then I have to go back to 1926-7: 11.7” Dec; 10.6” Jan+ -1912-3: 11.4”; 3.1” -1902-3: 14.4”; 14.3” That’s it going back to 1869-70. Just 4 winters out of 43 (9%) with 8”+ in Dec failed to get 16” Jan+. For the other 113 winters (<8” in Dec): 46 (41%) Jan+ had <16” Jan+ *So, only 1 in 11 Jan+ were <16” when Dec 8”+ vs just over 4 in 10 when Dec 8”+! That’s a pretty strong correlation.* Longterm avg for is Jan+ is 22”. ———— *Edit: I counted 22 Jan+ <10”. 21 of those were when Dec was <8”. So, whereas 21 of the 113 (19%) when Dec <8” had Jan+ with <10”, a mere 1 of the 43 (2%) when Dec 8”+ had Jan+ with <10”! So, 2% vs 19%, meaning an even stronger indication of the correlation between Dec and Jan+ snow at NYC.

Thanks. As I mentioned elsewhere, I think a good portion of the EW lowering in weeks 1-2 is due to the 91L model bust while the powering in week 3 is too far out to be 91L related. Regarding trusting them, I don’t trust any model as there’s too much inherent uncertainty especially as one goes out further. But I do use them as tools. I feel that the EW have done reasonably well enough since 2024 regarding the overall big pic/trends that following them at least for trends is probably somewhat useful.

My thought is that he did pretty well with boldly saying early on the Carolinas would be impacted by Erin. How has he done otherwise as of Sept 7th? Had he made other bold calls?

Is this Gary Lezak stuff?

I can’t make that detailed a call, but that’s the start of prime W Caribbean/Gulf season climowise.

The OHC has recently been cooling substantially after the prior rather steady period: @snowman19you’ll probably like this trend

That first tstorm gave me only a little rain. But a stronger storm is starting now just before 6PM with very gusty winds, heavy rains, and some nearby CTG lightning. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 548 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025 GAZ118-119-072215- COASTAL CHATHAM GA-INLAND CHATHAM GA- 548 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CHATHAM COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT... AT 548 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HUTCHINSON ISLAND, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. HAZARD...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...GUSTY WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, HUTCHINSON ISLAND, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, WINDSOR FOREST, GARDEN CITY, THUNDERBOLT, SAVANNAH HISTORIC DISTRICT AND SANDFLY. —————— **Edit: I ended up with ~0.90”

MJOwise, alone, 9/7-21/25 is clearly more favorable than 9/7-21/24. But the MJO is just one factor of many. There’s lots of variation of actual outlines within each MJO phase. The MJO is best treated as a guidance tool rather than a crystal ball.