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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    The latest BoA relative was just released. As expected, it cooled way down from the April Nino 3.4 prog of +0.6 as it is now a much more realistic -0.2 (that actually will likely end up slightly too cool as I expect it verify -0.1 to 0.0). However, despite that marked cooling of April, it warmed for its Sept prog from ~+2.35 to +2.6. Also, this is the first run with Oct, which it has at ~+2.85. On the one hand, one should keep in mind how much it overdid ONI in 2023. OTOH, this latest has RONI near the level it had ONI in 2023. So, although we should be aware of a quite possible warm bias at play here thus causing the RONI prog to be overstated, we should also be aware that it is currently implicitly progging ~0.5C warmer RONI vs 2023. Keep in mind that RONI peaked at only ~+1.5 in 2023-4. We’re very likely headed to a significantly warmer RONI peak in 2026-7: BoA RONI prog from 2 weeks ago: a ridiculous +0.6 April and a +2.35 Sept: Today’s BoA RONI prog: much more realistic cooler -0.2 April but Sept a warmer +2.6; first run with Oct (+2.85):
  2. GaWx
    The relative weeklies centered on last week were released this morning. They as expected based on following the dailies show a slowdown in the rate of warming in 3.4 and 3 (from 0.4 the prior week to 0.1 last week). Also, note that Nino 4 cooled 0.1. Nino 1+2, which is more volatile since it covers a much smaller area, cooled 0.3. I expect that this cooling there is just a blip that will reverse soon: Date………………...1+2………3………3.4……..4 08APR2026 1.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 15APR2026 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 22APR2026 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.5 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  3. GaWx
    ^Thanks. It’s no doubt an extremely warm OHC for so early thanks largely to the very rapid rate of warming earlier this month. That’s why I posted the comparison. However, I feel it’s also important that we keep in mind that this, like ONI, is a measure that is not “relative” to up to date ocean warming. So, in that regard, it’s a bit overdone to the warm side just like ONI is a bit overdone to the warm side in relation to RONI. @bluewave @snowman19
  4. GaWx
    OHC and buoys both show sharp warming since early April: OHC: only ~+1.6 early April OHC: ~+2.0 to +2.1 mid April!
  5. GaWx
    Today’s EW rainfall next 2 weeks: 4/27-5/3: AN to NN SE; ATL 1.5-1.75” 5/4-10: NN in SE (ATL 0.75”); wetter FL
  6. GaWx
    Today’s Euro Weeklies continue to have BN next 2 weeks averaged out! 4/27-5/3: 5/4-10: We can thank this H5 for cool 5/4-10
  7. GaWx
    Getting our best rains (and just about our only rains of note) since April 5th’s nearly 1/2”. Currently have a band of heavy thunderstorms coming through with some rumbles. I haven’t watered since 4/22 and this will allow me to go further without going back to watering. I ended up with ~0.8”, the heaviest here since at the very least March 8th.
  8. GaWx
    Phase 1 peaked way up at ~2.73 amplitude this month. Only 2018 (also ~2.73) and 2009 (~2.75) had a higher phase 1 peak in April going back to 1975. Both were pre-Nino years like 2026.
  9. GaWx
    Thanks for posting. I like how Leon Simons’ tweet shows the stats and how strong the latest CFSv2 has RONI peaking. But I don’t like that he used the word “dystopian” and said “No one is prepared.” What do you and others think?
  10. GaWx
    The last of the 3 (Tue night) looks much wetter on models for S of I-85. For most of SE, Tue night/Wed system looks wettest overall.
  11. GaWx
    From FFC for 3 systems including today’s: 7 DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.5-2.25" NORTH OF I-85, WITH PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, DOWN TO ABOUT 0.5" IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STRONGER STORMS OCCUR. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
  12. GaWx
    Similar to 24 hours ago, the smoke here has returned though not to as much as yesterday. This should once again clear up this afternoon with the sea breeze.
  13. GaWx
    The SOI has dropped back down to -11. It may drop further temporarily. However, the models are not suggesting a further sustained drop to the 3 day long -30ish level of April 9-11 in the immediate future. So far, the SOI hasn’t been overly impressively negative for an oncoming very strong Nino vs history.
  14. GaWx
    Even if the KW were to verify as strongest in history (however long the recorded history of KWs is), why the “Very very massive yikes”? That wording implies to me that that’s worrisome. Why would that be something to get worried about? Are we in trouble? To me this is just more of his being over the top and not professional.
  15. GaWx
    “Very very massive yikes” Oh no! What are we going to do? Will we survive? Webb is so over the top. Yikes about what?
  16. GaWx
    The low level smoke has cleared up in the area thanks to a SE sea breeze. A temp of 79 F with a very dry 37 F dew point despite a steady SE sea breeze at KSAV is surrealistic. I took advantage of it with an enjoyable evening walk.
  17. GaWx
    Today’s Euro Weeklies for 4/27-5/3 reversed to a somewhat wetter signal but not all of the way to what it had 2 days ago and the prior 8 days: Yesterday’s run: Today’s run: ATL back to >1”
  18. GaWx
    Smoke is visible in this area due to the S GA fires.
  19. GaWx
    Unfortunately, after nine days straight of a widespread wetter than normal signal in the SE US for the week April 27-May 3, today’s Euro Weeklies run was much drier in most of the SE: Yesterday’s run: 9th wet run in a row Today’s run: drier signal much of the SE
  20. GaWx
    You’re saying how this being U.S. only limits how broadly you can interpret it. But at the same time, many of your recent posts ITT have been U.S. only! You wouldn’t even consider the intense cold in Canada in March. You’re not being consistent.
  21. GaWx
    Ray and Chris, If Nino 3.4 is at +2C vs 1991-2020 and surrounding tropics are also at +2C vs 1991-2020, there’s no warm El Niño tongue to do its forcing. Thus, it’s essentially neutral rather than super El Niño and officially is neutral for RONI. So, RONI is a better measure for strength of El Niño and La Niña for that matter. Do y’all agree? @bluewave
  22. GaWx
    This illustrates how much warmer the surrounding tropical areas were during 2023-4, which means a RONI significantly cooler than ONI due to the lowered contrast: Look at the much larger contrast in 1982-3:
  23. GaWx
    Indeed, the CFSv2 gets Nino 3 to just above +3.0 in Nov and Dec for non-relative anomalies:
  24. GaWx
    Today’s EWs continue to look good overall (certainly much better than how it’s been in the SE for most weeks in recent months) during the two weeks 4/27-5/10: 4/27-5/3: 5/4-10:
  25. GaWx
    Related to what you’re saying: As JB has emphasized, the models in 2023 that had the beautiful E US trough/Aleutian low that some of us here were repeatedly posting and very excited about were also forecasting the typical BN SSTs around Australia. Had it actually been relatively cold around Australia, JB believes that the E US would have had a cold winter. But alas, it turned out warm around Australia, atypical of El Niño. Is 2026 going to end up colder around Australia like JB expects?
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