GaWx

Feb 30 mb QBO fell to +10.55 from Jan’s +12.11 and the recent peak in Nov of +13.78. It will likely be negative by summer with very likely early autumn at the latest per historical patterns: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

WCS PDO just rose to -0.18 on 3/1/25, its highest daily since 3/22/24!

OHC and Nino 3.4 SSTs have recently been pretty rapidly rising with slightly warm biased CRW up to +0.086, cold biased CDAS up to -0.222, and OHC up to just above -0.6 from ~-1.25 late Jan (OISST dailies graph hasn’t been available since Jan 5th!):

KSAV (official station at airport) had a low of 32 while Hunter AAF (close to the city and not as far inland) had 34. KSAV has had an average of 1 freeze in March. That could very well end up being the last and only one. Brunswick, GA, a traditional cold spot on radiational cooling nights got down to at least 31. The contrast between inland and coastal stations was quite large due to a lack of near calm winds on the coast, with a partial onshore component from the NNE to NE. Coastal waters temps are mainly 55-56. St. Simons only got down to the upper 40s vs Brunswick’s ~31! Charleston downtown/Harbor got down only to ~44 vs well inland CHS’s 29! Ft. Pulaski likely only got down to ~49 and possibly as high as 50 vs Hunter’s 34 and KSAV’s 32! Sapelo Island, one of the traditionally colder island locations got at least down to 41.

0Z GEFS 10:1 24 hour snow: lower amounts vs 18Z GEFS but still decent signal

Not gone at 0Z. Still there and similar:

The 0Z 3/2/25 GFS/GEPS had a min of -21 on 3/12 and 3/13, respectively. 0Z GEFS had -17 on 3/13 with 100% of members having a reversal to -5 or lower. And the 0Z Euro had -18 on 3/13 as we know. So, it is unanimous for a substantial reversal.

Yeah, 18Z GEFS strongly for an ensemble mean followed the 18Z GFS fwiw (thus I don’t expect this to hold up on the 0Z):

I already posted the link there yesterday after seeing it here. Andy H being fired was kind of a shock.

Today’s Euro Weeklies mean has an even stronger reversal next week with low mean of -18 vs -10 on yesterday’s run and 100% of members having a reversal that goes at least down to -8!

NYC had these winters with both sub 32 F DJFs and <20” of total seasonal snowfall: -1967-8: 19.5” -1962-3: 16.3” -1958-9: 13.0” -1900-01: 9.1” -1871-2: 14.4” https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

Ready or not it is now evident that either a major SSW or a very early FW is very likely on the way within ~10 days. This (today’s Euro Weeklies) shows ~95 of 100 members reversing by Mar 14th. The mean gets way down to -10 on 3/14. Today’s has the strongest signal yet. This would be consistent with Joe D’Aleo’s study showing a strong tendency for a major SSW during +QBO/strong winter solar. Solar for DJF came out to ~148: *Edit: there’s no indication this will lead to increased snow. There’s always some chance this kind of thing will lead to BN temps in 15+ days. But as of now the models don’t even show that. Even if it were to do so, that may not mean much, if any, snow for the NE US since it will be so late in the season. @snowman19 Kudos to @40/70 Benchmarkfor predicting this for some point in the late season with confidence.

New Euro Weeklies: mild to warm Mar 10th through Apr 14th

Here’s the 12Z Euro snowfall at 10:1 through the same time:

Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies and 0Z extended GEFS (today’s not out yet) actually had the highest chances yet of any of these runs for a mid-Mar major SSW or FW fwiw:

As you know the Euro op day 11 is of little value other than entertainment and it often changes substantially from run to run, regardless. But mountain upslope snow around this time wouldn’t be surprising.

But at least he’s against the massive firings of the non-climate science portion of NOAA. I wasn’t so sure he was going to say that. I thought he was either going to say nothing or defend all of the firings due to political leanings.

What about El Niños of 1994-5 and 2014-5?

Does anyone who isn’t a WxBell subscriber want to guess what Joe Bastardi just said about the NOAA firings?

At another site’s forum I posted the above tweet. A knowledgeable pro met there responded to me: “Something doesn't add up here because Alaska has been expanding AUTOMATED balloon launches across the state that don't require humans. This sounds like it could be part of that project. NOAA adopts technology to automate weather balloon launches Demonstration project underway as Alaska receives first autolaunch stations” My comment: This link dates way back to 5/7/2018: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-adopts-technology-to-automate-weather-balloon-launches After nearly two years of field testing the technology in Kodiak, NWS has initiated a demonstration of autolaunchers in Alaska, with two of the state’s 13 upper-air sites already using them. Annette, Alaska, will receive an autolaunch system this month, and the technology will be installed across the state’s remaining 10 sites over the next two years.”

Who hired Musk to do this?

From something I just read elsewhere, the impact of this may be the US models not running when there’s an outage and thus having to rely on foreign global models. I assume this may mean no short term models run other than RGEM til the outage is fixed. We need more info to decipher exactly what this would actually mean for the US models.