GaWx

From Eric Webb at another BB just now: A few other things I think that are playing into our favor at least for December: Being in a La Niña with a slower-moving and more amplified MJO (due in part to the easterly QBO) makes a subsequent -NAO and weaker polar vortex/-NAM more likely. The current global tropics SSTa are also almost the exact opposite of the MJO phase speed & SST correlation pattern derived from Suematsu & Miura (2021), favoring slower MJO events that typically have stronger and more consistent extratropical teleconnections as Yadav et al (2024) + Yadav & Straus (2017) and Tseng et al (2020) have argued respectively.

Live feed from chaser Jeff P. is linked at the bottom. He’s been stationed in a house in Santa Cruz (~20 miles inland and ~15 miles W of worst wind damage. Yesterday, he/his host tried to drive to Black River but could go only a couple of miles west to Lacovia due to roads that were washed out, had big potholes, had deep mud from the prior 4-6+ feet of extreme rainfall induced flooding/landslides coming off the nearby ridges, and had debris such as trees and utility poles (some made of concrete!) blocking the road. So, they kept having to turnaround and try different routes to no avail and thus went back to home base. Here’s a link to the recording of that 2 hr, 51 min never a dull moment live feed from yesterday (this isn’t live): ———————— In today’s (LIVE) feed, it looks like they took a different route initially to the E and SE (i.e. further away from the worst hit area) instead of W. Then they turned back W further S (only couple of miles from coast). They went W through Junction (15 miles SSE of Santa Cruz), Bull Savanna, and Flagaman. They were temporarily stopped at Pedro Cross, just a few miles E of Treasure Beach, because the road was being cleared. They resumed a NW course approaching Newell. LIVE feed: Edit: they’re now at Wally Wash Pond (11:33AM EDT) moving NW just a few miles SE of Black River.

For much of the time hurricane force winds extended outward only 30 miles. Now it is up to 60 miles while TS force extend about the same as they’ve been: From NHC 11PM advisory: Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...MELISSA STARTING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS... ...DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONTINUING IN THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 74.8W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

Forecasting some strengthening during next 24 hours: FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 22.9N 74.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 25.1N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 29.1N 70.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 40.7N 58.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 46.6N 52.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1800Z 52.0N 45.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z 56.0N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1800Z 57.0N 27.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin

From 4 hours ago, this stream from Jeff P. shows he and his friend driving around surveying the damage starting in Santa Cruz, Jamaica, where’s he’s been and which was just to the east of the worst damage, and then heading west to the worst damage with their main goal to see if they could help others:

Hey Roger, I’ve noticed what seemed like a (slight?) partial correlation between high sunspot months (say 130+) and low ACE with possibly a couple of weeks of lag. One hypothesis is that the increased solar energy heats up the upper atmosphere more than the lower, which if true could lower instability in the tropics.

Here’s what a very knowledgeable non-met recently posted about my observation regarding the historic January in the SE US occurring despite a very strong SPV What lucked out for us is that even with the stronger SPV last winter, it was rooted to the Hudson Bay TPV so cold air was nearby last winter most of the time, when it’s locked up and wound up on the other side is when it’s a issue,

The strengthening over the next 2 weeks from the current weak SPV has been shown for awhile. It’s the weakening afterward that I’ve been focusing on. Will todays run be similar? Stay tuned!

Thanks, Chris. One thing I noticed though is that Oct of 2025 is coming in mainly NN for the E 1/4 of the US overall, which is cooler than Octobers 2015-24 except 2022 with the super strong El Niño 2015 (so not an analog) similar fwiw.

As is often the case, EPS is correcting stronger as we get closer: 10/23 EPS had weak 10/27+: 10/29 EPS shows that 10/23 EPS verified too weak 10/25-9, is less weak (to the right) 10/30-11/6 than 10/23 run, and then heads into moderate 11/9-12 (will likely later correct stronger 11/9-12+ as in toward today’s GEFS, which is below this): 10/29 GEFS is stronger than 10/29 EPS for 11/1-12 (I expect EPS to correct toward this later):

1. Whereas winters on average are less cold (though with lots of variance from winter to winter), summers are hotter, which increases AC demand, which increases demand for NG to generate electricity. 2. The US exports so much more LNG these days than in the past. So, demand for NG is increased for that.

I know many here must be exhausted, but is Melissa going to end up being the last NS of the season? Probably not. Why? I’ll look at non-El Nino seasons only: Since the start of the current active era, there have been 76% (16 of 21) of non-Nino seasons with at least one NS with TCG in the Nov-Dec period. The only ones without any TCG in Nov-Dec were 1995, 2000, 2010 (Thomas’ TCG was Oct 29), 2012, and 2021 (Wanda started Oct 30th). So, I’m giving it ~75% chance for at least one more NS in 2025.

Isidore of 2002 coming off the Yucatan came out with a hollowed out core and unexpectedly never restrengthened. BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...POWERFUL MELISSA MOVING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 77.2W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

With Melissa headed to ~27.25 ACE as of 0Z this evening, it will then be only 5 lower than Erin. I see very little chance (5%) that it won’t get an additional >5 ACE the next 96 hours before extratropical transition. Thus I feel quite confident that Melissa’s ACE will exceed Erin’s 32.2. We’re now at 123.81 season to date with low 130s+ highly likely for the season to date through Melissa.

NG was down 4% today on warmer two week ensemble progs vs how they looked just a few days ago, which is consistent with the warmer 11/3-11 on the Euro Weeklies the last 2 runs. Check this comparison of EPS runs: Look how chilly the 10/24 12Z run was (purple on left): 11-12+ HDD 11/5-7 and pointing even higher (colder due to more HDDs): The 10/28 0Z run (purple) instead of pointing up/colder points down/warmer with only 8-10 HDDs 11/5-7 vs the 11–12+ of the 10/24 12Z run and then with additional days (11/8-10) also being quite mild with only ~8-8.5 HDDs meaning significantly lower NG demand in week 2 (despite week 1 still looking cold) than what the EPS was showing recently:

That’s what I was referring to earlier regarding catastrophic flash flooding coming off the mountains. Jeff P. on his live feed first alerted me to this. I greatly fear the casualties this may cause. I hope it’s not anything like Mitch, which had a death toll of 11-18K mainly due to this.

1. Since my last post on E US temperatures on the Euro Weeklies two days ago, they’ve warmed up significantly in just about all of the weeks. Not only is Nov 3-9 not nearly as chilly, but also Nov 10-30 has warmed from mainly NN to pretty solid AN. So, it looks like we may not get the coldest 11/27-11/9 since 2012 after all. @snowman19will be happy 2. Despite that, the forecast for the SPV remains about as weak as it looked yesterday and with more members with a very early major SSW (~22-23%). IF that unlikely event were to occur then, that may help lead to a cold 2nd half of Dec. So, snowman may not be crazy about this

I haven’t but in the past in very strong storms, he’s gone many hours with no posts once a storm has hit. It may not be til tomorrow or later for the next post for all we know.

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 The eye of Melissa made landfall in western Jamaica near 17Z with maximum sustained winds estimated at 160 kt and a central pressure near 892 mb. Since that time, the hurricane has been weakening over the mountains of western Jamaica with the eye disappearing and some warming of the convective cloud tops. Based on these changes, the initial intensity has been reduced to a highly uncertain 125 kt. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Melissa this evening to provide better information on how much it has weakened. It should be noted that while Melissa's landfall intensity is among the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, it will take extensive post-analysis to determine exactly where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic hurricanes. The initial motion is now 025/7. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected this evening, and this should bring the center near or over southeastern Cuba late tonight or early Wednesday. After that, an even faster motion toward the northeast should bring the center through the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday and near Bermuda Thursday or Thursday night. After passing Bermuda, the cyclone should continue quickly northeastward into the north Atlantic. The track guidance envelope has shifted a little to the left (north and west) through 72 h since the last advisory, and the new forecast track during this time is also shifted a little to the north and west. While the center of Melissa is now emerging over water, it will probably not re-intensify significantly before landfall in Cuba due to the limited amount of time before landfall and an upper-level wind environment that is becoming less favorable. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength before Melissa reaches Cuba. After leaving Cuba, Melissa should encounter increasing southwesterly vertical shear that should cause gradual weakening, although the cyclone should still be at hurricane strength when it passes near Bermuda. Based on global model guidance, Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 18.5N 77.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.9N 76.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 22.2N 75.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 25.0N 73.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 28.9N 70.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 31/0600Z 33.8N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 39.0N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 48.4N 42.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1800Z 54.8N 25.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...CENTER OF MELISSA EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN JAMAICA... ...DAMAGING WINDS. CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING, AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES IN JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 77.7W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES

We’ll see. There has been video of catastrophic floodwaters coming off the mountains this afternoon in many places in Jamaica including Mandeville. Hurricane Mitch, the 2nd deadliest Atlantic basin hurricane on record, caused 11-18K fatalities, mainly from catastrophic flooding and landslides due to epic rainfall amounts.

Jeff P. is now witnessing a flooding catastrophe in Santa Cruz in his live feed: