GaWx

Further update: There continues to be no indication of a “killing freeze” outside of the mountains. “Killing freeze” is the wording you had first used and is what I was responding to. You had said: “Yay a killing freeze...”

The forecasting problem with CANSIPS is that its runs had been predicting a Modoki El Niño emerging by late summer back in runs going back to late last summer. But the model has since been gradually delaying more and more with each subsequent run the C equatorial Pacific warming, which tells me it is lost: 8/31/24 Cansips for August of 2025 had suggested Modoki El Niño already starting: But new CANSIPS for same month has backed off considerably and now delays Nino by 6 months til way out in Feb of 2026: Thus I’d take CANSIPS maps for winter 2025-6 with a huge grain just like would normally be the case when looking so far ahead on a seasonal forecasting model, which y’all normally would do: @Stormchaserchuck1 @40/70 Benchmark

That’s always great news to me.

Incoming here in Savannah area:.A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BEAUFORT...LIBERTY…EFFINGHAM...JASPER...MCINTOSH...BRYAN...CHATHAM...TATTNALL...BULLOCH AND LONG COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM EDT... AT 535 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM OVER STILLWELL TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DONALD, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...GUSTY WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS. MINOR DAMAGE TO OUTDOOR OBJECTS IS POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HILTON HEAD ISLAND, HINESVILLE, POOLER, BLUFFTON, RICHMOND HILL, TYBEE ISLAND, SPRINGFIELD, PEMBROKE, DARIEN AND LUDOWICI. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... I-16 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 140 AND 168. I-95 IN GEORGIA NEAR MILE MARKER 50...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 47 AND 49...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 51 AND 112. I-95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 14. I-516 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 3 AND 9.

The effect of SSWs down here (which in the current case will end up as a final warming similar to that of 2016 in that the reversal looks to remain through the warm season) often start with warmth followed by BN temps. The upcoming week will be an absolute torch before the cooldown. 0Z GEFS NAO forecast:

There’s been and continues to be no indication of a killing freeze (outside of the mountains, of course). Also, the last few GFS runs haven’t been as chilly. But I’m still looking forward to a reprieve from this week’s heat.

It’s now in the low 80s here with PC skies. Any potential severe thunderstorms here would be in the early evening most likely.

The latest GFS (6Z) isn’t as cold in the second week of April.

Do y’all realize that RDU has had measurable snow twice after April 9th? They got 0.3” on 4/11/1989 and 1.8” on 4/18/1983!

I’d admittedly enjoy a nice cooldown that week, especially since it would be following a four week long mild period. Also, I’m a chilly wx fan in general. Even if folks don’t want it, I feel it’s important to discuss the potential and not be caught off-guard.

If this cold verifies, which is growing in likelihood, I will forever remember this as the Tony @dsaurcold wave since he’s been warning us about this potential around Masters time:

Barney is even threatening to make an appearance….in April! No, you’re not seeing things. 12Z Goofy for 8PM on April 8th:

12Z GEFS still has some although not the operational outside of the mtns. Op gfs is still cold during this period, regardless:

Even though it is also on the 6Z Goofy, I realize that with this being out 9 days that this is so highly unlikely based on climo:

Tony, Get a load of the 0Z Goofy! Holy cow, I think Goofy had a little …no, a lot…too much: And snow on April 8th, Tue of Masters Week! Is this real? Is this because of the current very strong stratospheric reversal?

The chill is intensifying for Masters week

And now today’s Euro Weeklies for 4/7-13 have cooled a lot due to a stronger -NAO…chilly Masters may be ahead: Yesterday’s run: Today’s run:

As a result of this strengthening -NAO, today’s Euro Weeklies have cooled a lot just since yesterday’s run for 4/7-13 (Masters Week): Yesterday’s run for 4/7-13 Today run for 4/7-13

Is there going to be a chilly snap during the upcoming Masters just as has occurred in some past Masters? Be ready to break out the coats one last time then just in case? @dsauror others have an opinion?

I just watched the Thursday daily Joe Bastardi video (he’s now at Weather Bell for those who don’t know). Even he, who himself has hyped at times in the past, said that this Daily Mail headline was hype to get extra clicks. He thinks Accuweather should respond with a complaint that this is not what they forecasted, which was a range of 3-6 TSs or stronger. That’s far from forecasting 6 Hs smashing the US! When even JB is complaining about hype…. @cleetussnow

This is a perfect example of hype by Daily Mail. From your link: Six hurricanes to smash the US as forecasters warn of blockbuster season But from Accuweather’s actual forecast: Between 13 and 18 named storms are expected in 2025, including 7-10 hurricanes, three to five major hurricanes that reach Category 3 strength or higher, and three to six direct U.S. impacts. That’s a range of 3-6 tropical storms or stronger hitting the US. So, Daily Mail took Accuwx’s 3-6 TS+ hits and turned it into saying that Accuwx is predicting 6 hurricanes hitting the US. Terrible hyping to get clicks. https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-season-forecast-2025/1757562

Why do you think global ACE has averaged well BN recently despite GW to record highs?

I’ll take nice, boring, low dewpoint weather like we’ve been having. Great for outdoors!

A teeny weeny bit of rain today

Hogtown, the radiation capital of north-central FL, had a 37 low today, which was 14 BN and tied for the lowest for this month! The 2 SAV stations weren’t nearly as cold with their 42s. The walking conditions here the last 3 days have been fabulous!