GaWx

I‘m not sure exactly what you’re asking. But I do know that both the Icon and the UKMET on every single run going back to when they first had this on their runs 5+ days ago had this after moving it N to NNW hook sharply right OTS. They were absolutely stellar and were far better than any other non-JMA models with their essentially perfect records. I have the JMA as a clear 3rd as only its 12Z 9/23 run hit NC. All others hooked sharply right and OTS although two of them (12Z 9/25 and 12Z 9/26) combined with Humberto to make one storm. All of this is still on Tropical Tidbits for those who are interested. They have runs back a full week. Check them out before it’s too late! Edit: The 18Z 9/24 Icon, which goes out only 120 hours, didn’t go out far enough to be able to tell for sure. It had Imelda further N than most other runs and she was getting pretty close to FL when the run ended. But she was moving very slowly and could have easily hooked right had the run gone out further as that’s about the time the right hook would have started.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025 ...IMELDA CONTINUES NORTHWARD AND A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 77.0W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 800 AM AST Mon Sep 29 2025 ...HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF FOR BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THIS WEEK... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 67.3W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

A notable number of 6Z EPS members at 144 (~1/3) have a surface low in the Gulf (mainly northern portion) from something:

The 30 year average (1991-2020) ACE as of Sept 30th is 94. 2025 as you implied is projected to be close to that making it near the average for the end of Sept. Looking ahead: the Euro Weeklies, weak La Niña, and recent active late seasons tell me that ending the season at least near the 30 year average of 122 is likely. Even my pre-season prog of 139 is in reach.

The 0Z UKMET (a model that tends to be a bit more stingy with TCG than the GFS) is the 2nd run in a row that develops a TC from the current C Gulf weak surface low after it moves S into the Bay of Campeche. This run actually has minimal TS winds early on. Whereas the prior run then moved it into a threatening position in the W-C Gulf, this run only moves it slowly back N to the end of the run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 19.9N 94.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.10.2025 108 19.9N 94.7W 1009 36 0000UTC 04.10.2025 120 19.7N 93.9W 1008 31 1200UTC 04.10.2025 132 19.5N 93.9W 1006 31 0000UTC 05.10.2025 144 20.1N 94.2W 1005 29 1200UTC 05.10.2025 156 20.2N 94.0W 1005 26 0000UTC 06.10.2025 168 20.7N 94.5W 1004 27

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 77.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES @WxWatcher007

I wasn’t paying any attention to the Gulf at all due to Humberto and TD9 til just now. I just noticed on the most recent runs that just about all models have a weak but notable surface low/spin initialized in the C Gulf that then drifts SW to the Bay of Campeche, where it seems to stall just W of the Yucatan at ~hour 96. Interesting. And lo and behold, there’s a TD on the UKMET (12Z) for the first time in the Bay of Campeche at hour 120 that then drifts N through the end of the run to a threatening position in the W central Gulf. I just saw new UK maps and this UK TD is from the same low that’s now in the C Gulf! NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 20.7N 93.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.10.2025 120 20.7N 93.3W 1009 26 0000UTC 04.10.2025 132 21.1N 93.0W 1007 25 1200UTC 04.10.2025 144 22.3N 93.0W 1005 30 0000UTC 05.10.2025 156 22.8N 92.8W 1004 24 1200UTC 05.10.2025 168 24.4N 92.8W 1005 26 ——————— 12Z UKMET at 168 hours: this TD originates from the current C Gulf low and this becomes a TD on this run at 120, which moves N to this position at the end of the run (168): Also, check out the 12Z GFS at 168: there’s a TD that forms off of LA that then moves N into that state. That may or may not be directly related to the current C Gulf low, however, based on looking at vorticity maps.

Per the latest Euro Weeklies: After Humberto and Imelda wind down ~10/4-5, there looks to be a brief break overall. However, don’t get too comfortable as activity markedly picks up again to above normal on the run in the Gulf, NW Caribbean, and SW Atlantic (including Yucatan, Cuba, NC/NE US Gulf coast, FL/SE US coast, Bahamas, and Bermuda) with 140% of normal 10/13-19 and 160% of normal 10/20-26. This would be a 3rd peak of sorts for 2025 should it verify. This active period would resemble a somewhat toned down version of the freakishly active late seasons of 2020 and 2005 and similar to 1950, 1878, and 1870 for that area. 10/13-19: 10/20-26:

All major 6Z models including hurricane models stay away from the US. As of the 5AM advisory, it finally started moving a little faster and that’s continuing now on the 8AM with SLP dropping to 1002 mb: BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 ...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS, WITH WINDS SOON INCREASING OVER THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 77.3W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Unlike prior two runs, the 0Z Euro stays away from US. Also, unlike some hurricane model runs yesterday that curved back into SC/GA, the 0Z runs all stayed offshore that area.

0Z UKMET: stays OTS like every other UKMET and every Icon has done. Reminder: Coincidentally or not, the UKMET and Icon were the two best models by far for Ian by being the furthest to the right/SE coming into SW FL. 0Z UKMET ROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 76.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 28.09.2025 0 22.0N 76.4W 1005 31 1200UTC 28.09.2025 12 23.2N 76.9W 1003 35 0000UTC 29.09.2025 24 24.6N 76.7W 1000 32 1200UTC 29.09.2025 36 26.7N 77.1W 998 43 0000UTC 30.09.2025 48 28.5N 77.4W 994 42 1200UTC 30.09.2025 60 29.2N 77.3W 991 38 0000UTC 01.10.2025 72 29.0N 75.9W 989 41 1200UTC 01.10.2025 84 29.7N 73.4W 987 47 0000UTC 02.10.2025 96 30.3N 69.6W 985 57 1200UTC 02.10.2025 108 31.6N 64.5W 984 54 0000UTC 03.10.2025 120 33.5N 59.8W 986 67 1200UTC 03.10.2025 132 34.8N 57.0W 992 48 0000UTC 04.10.2025 144 36.3N 56.0W 995 43 1200UTC 04.10.2025 156 37.7N 54.4W 999 39 0000UTC 05.10.2025 168 41.4N 49.5W 999 41

Thanks. Everyone’s wrong sometime, even you who has often been right. And 100+ isn’t a guarantee yet.

Note the bolded: the slower speed of movement has increased the chance of it staying away from the US: Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 The depression this evening remains fairly disorganized, with convection mainly oriented in a north-south fashion with only a hint of banding on the northern side. A NOAA-P3 aircraft that has been flying through the system only found a peak 700 mb flight level wind of 34 kt about 60 n mi away from the center. Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) analysis from the aircraft also shows the center is quite broad at the 1 km level with the mid-level center tilted to the south with height. Based on the plane data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt this advisory, which is a little under the various satellite-based estimates, but close to a recently received scatterometer pass which had a peak wind of 31 kt. Aircraft fixes both at 700 mb and from the TDR analysis shows the cyclone is meandering right now, with a best guess at a motion of 310/2 kt. Over the next couple of days, the system should turn north-northwestward with a somewhat faster forward motion, moving within the flow between an upper trough over the southeast U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. This forecast brings the depression over the central and northwestern Bahamas through early Monday, then toward the southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday. It is notable to point out the system has been moving slower than anticipated over the last 12-24 hours, and this could have significant implications on its ultimate track. Even in the first 48 hours of the track, there is quite a bit of spread in the north-south direction in both the deterministic and ensemble model guidance. Faster tracks appear to interact more with the upper-level trough to the west, resulting in a track closer to the Carolina coastline, while slower tracks largely miss a direct interaction with this feature, and turn sharply east faster as Hurricane Humberto approaches from the east, eroding the mid-level ridging steering TD9 northward. Because it has been moving slower than expected, its becoming more likely its ultimate track will fall in the slower and sharper east camp. In response, the overall track guidance this cycle shifted slower and further east, and the NHC track forecast was shifted in that direction. The latest track roughly splits the difference between the ECMWF and GFS tracks, and lies quite close to the HCCA consensus aid, but still not as far south and east as the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). The depression is now showing signs of intensification yet, with a broad diffuse structure on aircraft observations persisting. However, the intensity guidance is insistent that deep central convection will soon form near the center, helping to tighten up the surface wind field. While the cyclone will have some southerly shear to deal with, it does not appear to be prohibitively strong, only 15-20 kt for the next 48 hours in both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance. That, combined with warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures should promote steady intensification once a central core develops, and the NHC intensity forecast was nudged up a little higher showing a 70 kt peak in 48 hours. After this period is where the intensity forecast gets tricky. The large spread in north-south tracks also has a significant impact on the amount of shear the system will face in the 48-96 hour time-frame. Solutions that are further south have less shear to contend with and are generally stronger. For now, the latest intensity forecast will cap the peak intensity at 70 kt through the end of the forecast, close to the HCCA intensity guidance, but this could be conservative if the track shifts further south and east. The system could also interact with a baroclinic zone towards the end of the forecast, but because the forecast track remains over warm waters at day 5, extratropical transition won't be shown quite yet. Even if this further offshore track pans out, the wind field is expected to expand quite a bit, and given the expected storm structure, a risk of significant heavy rainfall, storm surge, and wind impacts is still possible for the southeast U.S. coast even if the storm center remains offshore. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the east coast of central Florida beginning Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. Rainfall will continue to impact eastern Cuba and the Bahamas through the weekend, which will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in the higher terrain. 3. There is a significant threat of heavy rainfall early next week from portions of the east coast of Florida northward into the Carolinas, which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding. 4. The depression is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it is closest to the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 22.4N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 23.6N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 25.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 27.3N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 28.7N 78.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 29.9N 78.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 30.4N 77.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 31.0N 75.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 31.5N 71.4W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Hardly moving! BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 ...DEPRESSION MEANDERING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT DAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 76.7W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Per recon, it hasn’t been moving NNW. Actually, there apparently was just a reformation of the weak center slightly to the SE per this. Overall, it has moved very little today so far:

I’ve received only ~0.90” of rain this month with about all of that way back on Sept 7th. Compare that to 17.1” in August!

Thanks to the second cat 5 of the season, Humberto, and future Imelda, ACE is progged to reach ~94 as of Sep 30th. That would be exactly the 1991-2020 avg! What a comeback! But the Euro Weeklies have been suggesting this could occur for several weeks, and recent seasons have been active late, especially during La Niña. With ~94 now forecasted as of 9/30, with the Euro Weeklies forecasting an above average Oct, mainly favorable MJO expected, weak La Niña, and recent active late seasons, a 120+ season total would be likely with even my preseason forecast of 139 being quite doable. A sub-100 is extremely unlikely now…I’d say 3% chance. @snowman19@PhiEaglesfan712

12Z GEFS are also initialized W of the implied 12Z position , which was ~76W. The mean 12Z GEFS init. is ~76.5-76.7W meaning that’s ~35-50 miles too far W.

1. 12Z CMC stays OTS just like Icon, GFS, and UK 2. Anyone notice this? Based on the 11AM (15Z) NHC position of 76.2W on a NW heading, it appears to me that the model consensus 12Z initializations are ~35-100 miles too far W with them closer to 76.5-77.3W as of 12Z. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 22.0N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

Note the 12Z UK initialization as of 12Z at 22.0N, 77.3W. It actually was per NHC ~21.7N, ~76W meaning it initialized ~100 miles too far WNW and still recurved pretty easily from US. That bodes well for chances for staying OTS from US.

Just like for all runs before, 12Z UK is again staying OTS from US with this run not as close to FL on its closest approach (175 miles offshore) vs last few runs: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 77.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 27.09.2025 0 22.0N 77.3W 1007 28 0000UTC 28.09.2025 12 21.3N 77.3W 1006 26 1200UTC 28.09.2025 24 23.4N 77.1W 1005 34 0000UTC 29.09.2025 36 24.7N 77.1W 1003 30 1200UTC 29.09.2025 48 26.2N 77.1W 1003 43 0000UTC 30.09.2025 60 27.5N 77.5W 1000 39 1200UTC 30.09.2025 72 28.3N 76.6W 997 35 0000UTC 01.10.2025 84 28.6N 74.6W 994 39 1200UTC 01.10.2025 96 34.6N 69.7W 977 69 0000UTC 02.10.2025 108 CEASED TRACKING —————— *Edit: Note the initialization as of 12Z at 22.0N, 77.3W: how is that compared to where it really was at 8AM?

12Z Icon stays OTS from US

The last frame of 6Z Euro has this stop its ENE movement and then suddenly drift back due W fwiw as Humberto accelerates away and the upper high builds enough to its N to change the steering. Although this is the only major op doing this, 40% of the 6Z EPS do not escape and most of those stall not too far offshore and then attain a W component of motion.

0Z Euro stays away from the US.