GaWx

An outflow boundary just came through here. No rain here yet. Hearing thunder. Very dark skies just to the south. Edit 7:45PM: Here there was a collision of that aforementioned outflow boundary, which actually appeared to be a seabreeze on closer examination, and one moving in nearly the opposite direction (from inland) that was true outflow from a well inland thunderstorm complex. That collision lead to an area of thunderstorms near the coast and which soon after made it here. There had just been a short period of heavy rain (first since July 13th) though it has for now lightened up. Looking at radar, the thunderstorm area may hang around for awhile. Crossing my fingers this doesn’t turn into a heavy rainfall event. Now moderately heavy rain. There’s been some rather hefty gusts with this, too. High these last two days has been a very uncomfortable 97, hottest so far this year. Edit: Yesterday’s (7/21) rainfall was ~0.7”.

Good find. I see what you’re saying about the two of them mentioning Humberto by far the most frequently since last year. Though not absolute proof, it admittedly at least looks quite suspicious. Also, Barry vs Barrett fwiw. As you can see both accounts still show up with profiles. So, I assume that means different IP addresses. Probably not but does that tell you anything?

Thanks, Yoda. So, this Andy Hazelton tweet is sort of agreeing with what Eric Webb just had said about an expected quiet August into early Sept. Note, however, that Andy said “I’m kinda of the same opinion that August may be quiet in the Atlantic”, which isn’t a forecast since August “may be quiet” in any year. A forecast would say something much more explicit like “August will be quiet”, “I expect August to be quiet”, or “August will likely be quiet”.

8PM TWO sounds significantly more bullish though the % rose only from 10 to 20: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A small area of low pressure has developed from a tropical wave in the Central Tropical Atlantic, about 900 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Shower and thunderstorm activity has recently become more concentrated near the center, and environmental conditions are generally favorable for some additional development over the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By the middle of this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin

A nice dry outflow boundary ahead of a small area of convection has just come ESE through here with winds picking up. We’ll see if I get much rain. Edit: There was no rain here as it slid by just to my south.

The main diff, especially in the SE US, was that Feb of 2011 had a strongly +AO/NAO. Of DJF, F is often the warmest in La Nina. Edit: Also, in New England and NYC at least, DJF 2010-1 was actually colder than DJF 2009-10.

For those who may not realize this: The # of FFWs going up by a factor of ~5 over the last 40 years isn’t by any means just due to CC: Here’s why record-high flash flood warnings were issued in U.S. this year Rachel Dobkin Thu, July 17, 2025 There has been a record-high number of flash flood warnings issued in the U.S. this year, which can be linked to climate change and improved weather systems. Climate change can make river floods larger or more frequent in some places, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. But one expert explained another reason why there are more flash flood alerts than ever before. Amir AghaKouchak, director of the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing at the University of California, Irvine, told NBC News radar systems and weather models have significantly improved over the last 40 years. “The system that was implemented back in the ‘80s is not the same as the system that we have now,” he said. “We have many, many more radars, and we have many different sources of data.” “So naturally you expect more warnings just because our systems are getting better and better,” the expert added. https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-record-high-flash-flood-000109408.html

But there’s no good reason imho to not be that way online as long as most others are that way in their interactions. People look at this in different ways. Some say that the real person may show up better online because of less inhibition to be oneself. OTOH, there are many trolls online.

Hey Barry, He’s in my list of posters with a bearish bias. If you took an avg of bull cat5 and bear 57, do you think they’d average neutral? Interesting fact: When baby boomer 57 joined there, Gen. Zer cat5 was near birth! Cat5 was born near the time that board was born. As you can see I called out bias in these two cases despite big age diffs.

Hey Barry, 57, a Houston area regular, is generous with his postings and is very knowledgable along with decades of experience with tropical forecasting. He runs his own tropical forecasting service. He’s one of the original regulars. So, for good reason, he’s very well respected and I’m glad he posts as much as he does. However, I do feel he tends to have a bit of a bearish lean in some of his public posts there. Again, imho as it’s subjective. And it’s by no means for nearly all posts. In addition, many times his bearish posts verify very well. I think that his desire to have quiet weekends sometimes influences his posts there toward the bear. Keep in mind that I prefer BB posters exhibit neither an explicit bearish nor an explicit bullish bias. I try my best to be perceived that way.

AAM: still has Ninoish peak next week Prior run (6 days ago):

Back to 1894-5, I have DJ of 1917-8 and 1976-7 as the coldest DJ in the E 1/2 of the US:

The E ATL avg anom has warmed as of 7/17 significantly: But OHC there as of 7/15 is still near the avg though climo warmer:

But 1916-7 was one of the most -PDO DJFs on record and 1917-8 averaged neutral.

From WB’s Joe D’Aleo today: That warm water east of Japan will move east in the North Pacific current north of the North Pacific Gyre. How much warmth will be carried east before the winter is something we will need to monitor. If it ends up staying more in mid-ocean, a very different winter story would evolve. This is just a heads up. When warm water in the Pacific has settled in the northeast Pacific, winters are brutal. Examples include 1976/77, 1977/78, 1993/94 and 1916/17, 1917/18 and 2013/14, 2014/15/ Those back to back cold winters turned the trend negative for 1996 to 2015. The winter snows also set records.

Today posted by Joe D’Aleo: Dr Viterito reported a new geothermal "hot spot" has emerged over the past 2 weeks, and it appears to be heating up the Kuroshio Current in the Pacific. Specifically, the Wilber 3 System has catalogued 76 seismic events since 6/21 off of the southern coast of Japan. The area impacted is a hydrothermal vent field to the west of the Ryukyu Islands, in an oceanic region known as the Okinawa Trough. See how the surface water has warmed in recent months: I was wondering if the recent very steep PDO drop started on 6/21/25. However, that actually started 6/8/25 rather than 6/21/25. By 6/21/25, the WCS daily PDO had already plunged to -2 from -1 as of 6/7/25:

At my location, the last 10 days have had an enormous contrast between the first 5 days and the last 5: 7/9-13: 6.35” total/rain every day with lots of street flooding and some flooding on my property/lots of standing water 7/14-18: only light amounts a couple of days totaling ~0.10”

Interesting dichotomy between the warm neutral subsurface and the cold neutral surface:

Agreed. But if it turns back down by the end of this month, the record NOAA PDO low of October 2024’s -3.80 would be in danger. For MTD, it’s likely in that vicinity now. That table goes way back to 1854.

Indeed, it’s not surprisingly bounced 0.50 from the extreme low of -3.45 of 7/8/25. This -2.95 WCS PDO translates to ~-3.75 NOAA PDO. NOAA’s dip on 7/8/25 was likely sub -4!

For the first time in weeks, the latest Euro Weeklies actually has a week forecasted to be slightly above the 2005-2024 average in the ATL basin. It’s for Aug 11-17. It has that week at 110% of 2005-24 avg: Just two runs ago it had that week at only 60% of 2005-24 avg: The highlighted areas have the highest chance (5%+) for a TC to be within 300 km:

Maybe this will help some: https://stormtrack.org/threads/highest-500-mb-height-in-history.8224/#:~:text=The source for 1994 onward,22 had no 600 line.

It should be lowered to 0%. I consider this to be a big fail for the ICON, which of course is good news in this case.

I’m surprised it’s still at 30%. That seems high to me: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Northern Gulf Coast (AL93): Satellite, surface, and radar data indicate that the broad low pressure area over northern Gulf is located just south of the coast of Mississippi. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and located mainly to the west and southwest of the center. Some development could occur before the system moves westward into Louisiana later today or tonight, although the chances of the system developing into a tropical depression are low. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Beven