GaWx

Barry, So that you know I’m not just making up what I said in my previous post, I’m posting the actual Euro Weekly maps of today’s run for predicted ACE that I was referring to. Note the size of the green boxes in the ATL vs PAC. That’s why I said this was suggesting “pretty quiet” in the ATL with much more action suggested in the PAC. It remains to be seen how it verifies, of course: @BarryStantonGBP July 28th-Aug 3rd: climo (orange) is 2005-2024 Aug 4th-10th:

If the last few days of Euro Weeklies were to happen to be right, it would be pretty quiet late July/early Aug. It has much more action in the Pac.

After 2 days in a row of strong late afternoon/evening T storms and 3 days in a row of storms at some point in the PM (~4.8” total for 3 days) it is doing it again. Crossing my fingers the amounts today won’t be too high as I had flooding in my garage yesterday from a high water table (and also water blew in underneath my front door into my foyer). Edit: Fortunately, I was more on the N edge of the heaviest and the heavy didn’t last nearly as long. After this ended, another period of light to moderate came a little later. I ended up with a manageable ~0.80” in total on this day (7/12) bringing my 7/9-12 total to ~5.6”! Total MTD is ~6.5”. The street and yards had started to flood again but the much shorter duration prevented more problems. Had it rained just another inch or so, it very likely would have lead to another big mess. Parts of the area from Montgomery to Skidaway Island got pummeled on 7/12 with ~3.5” per the 7/13 CocoRahs map that covers the prior 24 hrs!

-2025’s 1.46 is 52nd of the last 75 seasons ACEwise as of July 12th -The last season with 7/12 ACE lower was 2009’s 0 -But 2004, 1998, 1985, 1969, and 1955 also had 0 in addition to 11 others -The predictive value of 7/12 ACE for the remainder of season’s ACE is virtually 0 -Here’s the 7/12 ACE position out of 74 for seasons with 150+ ACE remainder of season: 2nd, 6th, 14th, 17th, 18th, 24th, 31st, 34th, 59th-61st, 66th -So, avg 7/12 position of seasons with 150+ ACE to follow: 33rd of 74

We’re getting blasted with a thunderstorm now! 3rd day in a row with a storm. Edit: The total for this day (7/11) ended up being ~2.8” with most of it falling in just over 1 hour. That brought 3 day totals to ~4.8”! The flooding in many areas of midtown and the southside was bad. The flooding on my street (and andjacent sidewalk) and into my property was the worst so far this year. Much of backyard (especially from back portion into patio) as well as frontyard (courtyard and in front of garage) was flooded. The garage held up through most of it until the flooding in the yard in front of it appeared to have forced water to surge inside between the foundation and the bottom of the wall as I didn’t see any leaking at the ends of the garage door. Despite my push brooming a lot of water out, it was relentless and kept coming back and eventually spread all of the way over to the storage room on the other side! I also had the most I can ever remember in my foyer from rain splashing and/or blowing into my front door. I had a puddle that soaked a portion of the rug.

He doesn’t post here. Of course I have no idea if he reads it.

RONI could dip as low as moderate La Niña but I currently am forecasting ~-0.4 cold neutral ONI low point and -0.6 to -0.9 RONI low point (weak La Niña).

I have EPO and PNA back only to 1950: -1962-3, 1967-8, Jan of 1985, and 2013-14 were all -EPO dominated -All of the above were +PNA dominated except just Jan of the 2013-4 winter

Snowman, Further to my post above, three of the greatest (and arguably the two greatest are in this) E US Arctic outbreaks on record occurred during 2nd year -ENSO: -Feb of 1899 -Jan of 1985 -Jan of 2014 Mere coincidence especially with sample size tiny? @snowman19

There are usually exceptions to any rule. These 2nd year -ENSO winters or portions of winters were cold in much of the E US: -1898-9 (including great 2/1899 frigid period)(March was also cold with its own outbreak early) -1909-10 (Dec/Feb) -1962-3 (frigid) -1967-8 (Jan-Feb) -Jan of 1985 (though Dec of 1984 warm) -2013-4 especially Midwest

In the longer term, it’s still looking pretty quiet on the Euro Weeklies in the ATL basin through August 10th with much more activity in the WPAC and EPAC vs ATL. The GEFS runs still show a small chance for something in the NE Gulf next week.

Thanks, Chuck. I see that the Euro op has 6000+ at peak. The 0Z GFS also barely has it. But I think most or all of the others are just shy of 6K. Is they what you see?

+1.95 trimonthly peak for ONI (border between strong and super) +1.50 trimonthly RONI peak (border between moderate and strong)

Very strong thunderstorms in a band moving SE into this area now. Edit 6:37PM: these were severe warned. Huge mess all over during rush hour as I had to drive in it. CTG is quite frequent. Many roads flooded. Edit: I ended up with ~1.25” although some in the county had 3”+. Lots of bad street flooding occurred, especially in the city.

Implies SE ridge dominance?

I’m just saying that you should preface the repost by saying something like “Here’s a copy of a post from a Storm2K poster”.

This is another S2K repost for those who don’t realize it. You should be giving credit to others when you copy their posts.

The posters/forecasters I favor the heaviest have neither a bullish nor a bearish bias from my perspective.

Summary of latest model progs for Nino 3.4: coolest month (these don’t take into account RONI type of adjustments downward) BoM (Australian): -0.2 (in August)(too warm overall in prior 2 years; last July was slightly too warm with -0.17 for OND vs actual of ~-0.4) Euro: ~-0.2 (almost always has been too warm…July forecast last year was only down to -0.11 for NDJ vs actual of ~-0.5) JMA: ~-0.9 (Nov)(did well 2 years ago but too cool last year as July forecast had -0.87 for OND vs actual of ~-0.4) MetFrance: ~-0.6 (Dec)(July outlook too warm 2 years ago but did fairly well last year with it actually slightly too cool with -0.61 OND vs actual of ~-0.4) CFS: -0.5 (Nov)(last July much too cold with -1.32 for OND!) UKMET: -0.76 (Oct) (this is from June as I don’t see July outlook yet)(did great 2 years ago but last July much too cool with -0.95 in OND) ———— So, my latest guess based on last year’s errors and current forecasts (all listed above) is for ONI low point this fall/winter of ~-0.4. That would likely mean RONI low of -0.6 to -0.9.

Since the current active era started in 1995, the only seasons pretty comparable to the bearishness of his #s are all either El Niño seasons or the cold neutral ENSO season of 2013. (My seasonal contest forecast is calling for 14/9/3 with ACE of 139 fwiw.)

However, the CSU downgrade was from a very active 155 ACE down to 140. IF an ~140 ACE were to verify, that would still be slightly above the 1991-2020 active period’s 122 avg.

-That poster has “cat 5” in the name and identifies as an early 20s pre-med college student per his/her profile. -That person, who has been posting there since the 2021 season, comes across as intelligent and writes well. However, he/she is also a permabull. I recall no clearly bearish seasonal posts from him/her these last 4+ seasons. -The bullish bias is hinted at by the wording used in that post you just posted: 1. doesn’t think stability will be a major “problem”; stability is a “problem” from perspective of someone who wants more activity 2. “Are the subtropics being anomalously warm really that big of a problem”…uses the word “problem” in a similar way

I just saw it. A -3.45 WCS PDO as of 7/8/25! New lowest I’ve ever seen!

A band of heavy thunderstorms has popped up in this area early this afternoon along the seabreeze. Coming down pretty hard now. Edit: That storm ended up being pretty wet. We also got a small amount late in the afternoon from other showers. Total for the day (7/9/25): ~0.75”.

This 7/9/25 CSU update was just posted at storm 2K: note that this isn’t anywhere close to saying “season cancel” as it is merely a slight decrease to still slightly above activity vs the recent active era: ACE dropped from 155 to 140, which is still 18 greater than 1991-2020 avg: CSU July 9 updateWe have decreased our forecast slightly and now call for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season. The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear. High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons. However, we also anticipate the tropical Pacific to be characterized by ENSO neutral conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity. Analog years for 2025 with the associated hurricane activity listed for each year.Year NS NSD H HD MH MHD ACE NTC2001 15 68.75 9 25.50 4 4.25 110.1 135.32008 16 88.25 8 30.50 5 7.50 145.7 162.32011 19 89.75 7 26.00 4 4.50 126.3 144.92021 21 79.75 7 27.75 4 12.75 145.6 173.7Average 17.8 81.6 7.8 27.4 4.3 7.3 131.9 154.02025 Forecast 16 80 8 30 3 8 140 145