GaWx

@BarryStantonGBPsignal for Gulf activity midmonth is there. We’ll see is all I can say now.

Again, I’m not posting this because I’m trying to push it. Rather, I just want others to be aware of what WxBell, which has a large # of subs and thus a lot of visibility, is pushing via JB and to try to generate discussion: Looks Like Dr Viterito and I are Getting under someones skin This is an example of the kind of propaganda that was once reserved for other matters, but since a group of people now considers climate to be that kind of matter, they will do the same thing. The strategy, of course, is to say something that does have truth, but then do not fill in the entire picture. Naturally, the graphic attacks volcanoes and solar, both known for natural variability in the climate. But consider this. The cumulative buildup of heat in the ocean from increased solar and ( humor me here) some of the ideas on geothermal explain pretty nicely the buildup over the years of ocean heat. The sudden increase that Tonga and the el nino represented certainly added to it. You can't explain the jump from man-made causes, nor the significant drop that has started, so natural causes certainly explain much of the buildup But here is how the propaganda works. The pusher of the missive does not show the drop in 2025. ( Another favorite idea is to scream about Greenland falling into the sea when there happens to be a season where there is more than normal melt, but ignoring all the other years that have been occurring that have more than average snow and ice) Nor does the pusher fail to mention the drop off in MOSZA, and the drop in temperature seems to have some link. Nor can the pusher explain the record warmth in the north Pacific, the cooling in the NW Atlantic that is leading to the greatest difference at 40 north between the Pacific warmth and the NW Atlantic cooling on record. Gee, I wonder what could be causing the warmth where it is in the Pacific basin. must be a coincidence Or is there a magic CO2 fairy that bestows warmth where it so desires? BTW, the drop off in input in the Atlantic, though still warm, means it's quite a bit cooler Last year at this time current that is a pretty impressive drop off One may say, Joe, all you talk about is the opposite ideas of man-made warming. Well, that's because you have to be deaf or blind not to know their idea. It's all we are bombarded with, so I assume the reader knows the other side, because you can't help but know it. It's all you hear. Look at this "study" as an example of how this works. It's put out with loud fanfare and has none of the competing ideas that call it into question, even though the headline itself takes potshots at the very counters to it. And for good reason. Putting in competing ideas would lead to rational doubt. And that is not what propaganda is supposed to do. The only solution is to at least put other ideas out there, and give YOU the freedom to make the choice. In the end, the equation I put out 20 years ago when I started to get involved in this, still applies: The Sun, the oceans, stochastic events, and the very design of the system far overwhelm anything man can do to the climate and weather This has to really get people mad who think they can control the weather and climate and the fate of humanity.

The 12Z EPS has a notable signal for a TC formation (~25%) in the S Gulf with them moving mainly N to WNW and then hitting or threatening to hit from NE MX through TX/LA. But this could be mainly gone on the 0Z for all we know since this run looks much different vs earlier runs and its way out in the unreliable late week 2.

For the record but fwiw since it’s still well out in wild guessing land, the 12Z Euro directly hits Bermuda 9/14-5 as a MH as it moves NE.

12Z UKMET, after having it for the first run in a couple of days as a TD on the 0Z run (though it later weakened), is back to having the low too weak to be classified as a TC.

Barry, I’d rather not address those ITT, but that area may be active by midmonth. 12Z ICON is much weaker than and S of the 0Z run and has WSW motion to 15N, 49W at 168 well below a 600 dm H5 high at a steady state 1003 mb/TS.

Anything’s possible. It could blow up in especially the W half of the Caribbean if it gets to the E Car pretty weak. By the way, note that per Deepmind that the faster members are more of a threat to the Caribbean/further S.

The E MDR AOI is now red. This from Michael Lowry is a bit concerning at least for the E Caribbean: Models all over the map Forecast models generally agree on development, but the timing of and placement of development vary wildly, which of course affect the future track. On the one hand the American GFS is quick to develop the system this week along the northern lobe of the tropical wave and as a result move it farther north and turn it quickly into the Atlantic for next week, missing the islands to the north. On the other hand, the European model and Google DeepMind’s newest machine learning-based model that performed well during Hurricane Erin, take some time to develop the wave and do so on the southern side, which not surprisingly favors a track farther south and west and toward the eastern Caribbean for the middle part of next week. ——————— My concern is that Google Deepmind ensembles, which I know little about, did best with Erin per Lowry. As you can see, its 0Z 9/2 run has 6 of its members from the E MDR AEW in a very dangerous location. What I don’t know is how many total members it has. Lowry’s diagram makes it look like most members go toward the Caribbean, but there are only 6 that actually get there by hour 210. Many are slower (still well E) and 4 of them are turning WNW to NW (at the top of his yellow circle) and we can’t see where they go after hour 210. Also, there are two that are just starting to sharply recurve well E of the Caribbean but still within the MDR. But regardless, this ensemble’s avg trajectory does look more dangerous than the EPS and is totally different from the GEFS. @BarryStantonGBPPlease change this from 10/60 to 30/70. Thanks.

Wow, what a massive fold by GEFS to EPS in today’s MJO forecast! Whereas the EPS is similar to yesterday’s idea of not going to the right side (MC), GEFS abandoned the typical counterclockwise path that it had yesterday through MC and then to 6/7. Today, it remains in 2 through 9/11 and then crawls “backwards” up to 1 followed by 8 as of 9/16 (all mainly inside the circle, i.e., low amp). The EPS is very similar: Today’s (9/2) GEFS prog: Compare today’s GEFS to yesterday’s (9/1) GEFS prog: huge change! Thus, 9/2 EPS, which is very similar to 9/1 EPS, is very similar to 9/2 GEFS as it also ends up in low amp 8:

For the first time in a couple of days, the UKMET (0Z) has TCG for this. However, after moving WNW, then WSW for a short time, and then back to WNW, it dissipates at 16.4N, 48.3W: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 15.0N 35.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 05.09.2025 72 15.0N 35.4W 1011 28 1200UTC 05.09.2025 84 15.6N 37.0W 1012 26 0000UTC 06.09.2025 96 15.9N 39.8W 1012 28 1200UTC 06.09.2025 108 16.4N 42.7W 1012 32 0000UTC 07.09.2025 120 16.0N 45.7W 1013 29 1200UTC 07.09.2025 132 16.4N 48.3W 1013 29 0000UTC 08.09.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

Beautifully comfy day today. Did another evening walk outside and hardly broke a sweat…on Labor Day!

Now 10/60 @BarryStantonGBP

1. Euro ens clearly favors safe recurve from US but Erin did end up ~200 miles NW of early projections fwiw and some members hit or are close to E coast. 2. Those Caribbean members aren’t directly relevant to this thread about the E MDR AEW and I have little feel for it now, regardless. Also, Sep 13th is still a bit early for CAG. But it’s possible given this persistent E US trough pattern.

There’s an unusually large disagreement between GEFS and EPS regarding the MJO as they almost couldn’t be further apart! 1. GEFS heads for less threatening MC/W Pac (at low amp) pretty quickly and is on phase 6/7 border on 9/15 (supported by CMC): 2. Euro ens stuck mainly in phase 2, the most dangerous phase for Conus H hits in JAS (supported by JMA): I may be forgetting but I can’t recall ever seeing this degree of disagreement between these two! I don’t have a good feel for which will verify more closely but of course it could end up between the two.

1. Excellent chance to become a TC imho; strength: likely a H and even a chance for a MH 2. 12Z major ops: -Icon: easily the most threatening of the 12Z runs to the NE Caribbean and perhaps some others later with a H at 180 moving just S of due W at 17N, 50W underneath a strong H5 high -GFS: H recurves way E of Bermuda near 55W -Euro: H recurves 250 miles SE of Bermuda -CMC easily strongest run yet with 992 mb at ~17N, 47W moving WNW but then weakening back to 1005 mb and likely about to recurve E of Bermuda per H5/climo -UKMET like last few runs no TC but still has organized LLC moving WNW to 22N,60W at 192; per H5 and climo, this is likely about to recurve probably meaning a miss of the US but even if so, could threaten Bermuda had this run gone out further -JMA not as threatening as yesterday’s run when it had a TD moving WSW at 14N, 45W at 192; today’s is further N and moving WNW at ~17N, 45W at 192 as a TD; per H5 and climo likely not US threat from there with Bermuda needing to watch it more

Increased +NAO chances this JF on CANSIPS per this:

Thanks, Don. Although the study ended by 2016 (date of article), I was curious about how the theory worked after 2016 for DJF NAO >+1: These are those 4 winters: 2017-8, 2019-20, 2021-2, 2023-4 2017: -2 H hits (AN): works -ACE: ~119 (way AN): works 2019: -2 H hits (AN): works -ACE: 60 (NN): no signal 2021: -1 H hit (NN): no signal -ACE: 75.3 (AN): works 2023: -1 H hit (NN): no signal -ACE: 76.1 (AN): works ———— Summary for these 4 2016+ >1 NAO -# of US H hits through 9/10: worked twice, no signal twice, and didn’t work zero times -ACE through 9/10: worked 3 times, no signal once, and didn’t work zero times -So, for NAO >1: despite not doing well pre-2016 and despite 2020 not working for H hits as the only 2016+ -NAO winter, 2016+ for NAO >1 did much better for both measures with none not working.

Welcome to met. autumn! Please post your September of 2025 observations as well as other current or recent conditions at any location. Unlike the last 2 years, we lucked out in August. We’ll see whether we luck out again this month compared to last year’s horrible Helene. If any moderator sees this, please pin this and unpin the August 2025 obs thread. @buckeyefan1

Now I’ll look at the opposite end: NAO>+1 DJF 1980-1 through 2015-6 1988-9, 1993-4, 1994-5, 1999-00, 2011-2, 2014-5, and 2015-6 1. 1988: -1 H hit (NN): no signal -ACE ~12 (far BN): doesn’t work (major fail) 1993: -1 H hit (NN): no signal -ACE ~33 (BN): doesn’t work 1994: -0 H hits (BN): doesn’t work -ACE ~12 (far BN): doesn’t work (major fail) 1999: -1 H hit (NN): no signal -ACE ~66 (slightly AN): works 2011: -1 H hit (NN): no signal -ACE ~71 (AN): works 2014: -1 H hit (NN): no signal -ACE 21.2 (BN): doesn’t work 2015: -0 H hits (BN): doesn’t work -ACE 26.4 (BN): doesn’t work —————————— Summary for the seven +1+ NAO winters 1980-1 through 2015-6 -# of US H hits through 9/10: no signal 5 times, didn’t work twice, and worked zero times -ACE through 9/10: worked twice and didn’t work five times including two major fails Summary: the seven +1+ NAO cases overall failed to support their theory and actually, if anything, supported the opposite! @donsutherland1@40/70 Benchmark Edit: If I include only the 3 neutral ENSO summers (JJA) (1993, 1994, 2014), that doesn’t help and even makes it worse because none worked for ACE (including one major fail). The one with a signal for # of US H hits didn’t work.

Thanks, Don! The linked article refers to both overall “Atlantic hurricane activity” (ACE-like) and “US hurricane activity”. However, those two things have a decent correlation to each other. So, maybe it works for both. Also, it says as you said that it looks only through “early Sept.” or midpoint of season. So, I’ll assume 9/10 as the cutoff. Out of curiosity because there have been only 5 sub -0.25 DJF NAOs from the early 1980s through the year the article was written (2016), which is the period the article says works best for DJF NAO, I looked at the 5 seasons preceding those winters through Sept 10th. I’m keeping these in mind: -Avg ACE through Sept 10 is ~55 (varies with era) -Avg # of CONUS H hits through Sept 10th 1980-2016 is 0.9 1. 1984-5: -no US H hits through 9/10 (BN): works -ACE through 9/10 was 7.9 (far BN): works 2. 1986-7: -2 US H hits through 9/10 (AN): doesn’t work -ACE through 9/10 was 12.3 (far BN): works 3. 1995-6: -1 US H hit through 9/10 (near avg): no signal to work with -ACE through 9/10 was 153.9 (near record high with only one season, 1933, possibly higher): doesn’t work (major fail) 4. 2009-10: -0 US H hits through 9/10 (BN): works -ACE through 9/10 was 38.8 (slightly BN): works 5. 2010-1: -0 US H hits through 9/10 (BN): works -ACE through 9/10 was 64.6 (slightly AN): doesn’t work —————— So, for these 5 -NAO winters: -# of US H hits through 9/10: worked three times and didn’t work once (1995 had a lack of signal) -ACE through 9/10: worked three times and didn’t work twice (including 1995’s huge fail) ————— Out of curiosity, I checked the 2020 H season because of the 2020-1 -NAO DJF: -3 US H hits through 9/10: doesn’t work -ACE through 9/10 was 50.5 (NN): no signal to work with @40/70 Benchmark@snowman19

Some 0Z models: -GFS has a MH that goes E of Bermuda but then gets blocked by a big high -Like for the 12Z, the 0Z UKMET text has no TC. I’ll see how the maps look when they come out. The 12Z was kind of wacky with two weak lows. -CMC again has a possible TD in the E MDR that weakens later. -0Z JMA goes out only 72 hours. -So, Icon, GFS, UKMET, and CMC are fairly similar at 0Z to their respective 12Z runs. Next up is the all-knowing Euro!

I ended up with ~17.1” of rainfall this month, 225%+ of normal. That’s even more than the 15.33” of last August, when 10.9” fell over a 3 day period from Debby, alone!

Instead of the treadmill, I’ll be taking a walk at the park shortly as a result of mid 60s dewpoints and a nice NE breeze/upper 70s temps.

Today’s 12Z ops are much more active for the E MDR lemon than the runs from 24 hours ago: -Euro has a MH hit Bermuda on 9/14 (fwiw). -GFS has a H pass 250 miles E of Bermuda on 9/13 (fwiw). -ICON has a minimal TS moving ~due W at 180 hours near 16N, 45W. That would be far enough S when also considering its near due W movement and a 600 dam H5 high to its N to be a potential concern for at least the NE Caribbean. -CMC has a TD that later dissipates. -UKMET has two separate weak lows and no TC. I’m throwing this weird solution out since it’s a clear outlier. -JMA has a TD the furthest S of any major model with a TC. It’s at 14N, 45W, and moving WSW (unlike any other model with a TC) at end of its run (192). If that were to be real, it could be a legit concern for the Lesser Antilles and beyond. But all others are up at 16-19N then. And this is the JMA. An outlier JMA, especially to the left, is usually wrong. But we’ll see. @BarryStantonGBP

Followup: As a result of recently formed TS Kiko in the EPAC, 2025 is no longer the quietest Labor Day weekend tropically globally of Joe Bastardi’s lifetime. Why? Going back to 1950: -1980: no TC in EPAC, WPAC, or N Indian. The only TC was TD7 forming 8PM Sun in the NATL and lasting through Mon. Thus, 2025 now having a TS already beats 1980 globally. -1991 is debatable: -no TC in EPAC or N Indian -WPAC had a dissipating Harry, probably down to only a TD, on Sat, and a new TD on Mon -NATL: TD 5 dissipated on Sat -So, unlike 2025, 1991 had no TS+ but there were 3 TDs during the weekend.