GaWx

Despite some including Grok AI insisting there’d need to be WAY more ocean floor vents than have been discovered for underwater seismic activity to significantly affect SSTs, the AGW denying JB today seems to ignore that per the the attached. He says he’s not aware of any possible explanation for the sharp cooling over the last year in much of the Atlantic other than a sharp reduction in mid ocean seismic activity: You Can't Explain this kind of Drop with Man Made forcing Wow. Look at the MDR drop off in Feb. Co2 does not explain that This might tho

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 The wind circulation associated with the low pressure area east of the coast of north Florida has become stronger, with aircraft and scatterometer data indicating a well-defined circulation with maximum winds near 30 kt and a radius of maximum wind of about 80-90 n mi. The system has also developed persistent convection east and southeast of the center. Based on these developments, advisories are being started on Tropical Depression Three. The cyclone is currently being affected by 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear caused by a mid- to upper-level trough not far to the west. The initial motion is uncertain due to some reformation of the center, with the best estimate of 360/2 kt. During the next 24 h, the cyclone should move slowly north-northwestward on the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered northward with a gradual increase in forward speed. This motion should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. A generally northward motion should then continue until the system dissipates over land. While the guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there is considerable spread in both the forecast direction and speed, with the HWRF being a notable right outlier. The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and the HCCA corrected consensus model. The current shear is expected to diminish on Saturday as the upper-level trough moves westward away from the cyclone and the upper-level winds become southerly. However, the upper-level winds are forecast to become convergent, which may limit the amount of convection the system produces. Most of the guidance shows some development as the system approaches the coast, so the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening to a tropical storm before the cyclone makes landfall. This forecast is a little below the intensity consensus.

They’re going with a TD rather than STD as of the 5 PM/initial advisory: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three, located in the Atlantic Ocean offshore of the southeastern United States, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

I just saw this, which suggests the NHC may be going with a 30 knot subtropical depression perhaps due to the center being too broad for TD status: AL, 92, 2025070418, , BEST, 0, 309N, 790W, 30, 1012, SD Also, note the 79.0W longitude, which suggests it’s a little E of the 79.5W longitude that the LLC was earlier supposedly near.

The winds are high enough but is the circulation tight enough to be classified as a TD+? Based on images with wind barbs, it seems kind of broad. Opinions?

Recon will be in it shortly. They released this 2PM EDT TWO quite early: Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:1. Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):Satellite wind data indicate that the system located about 150 miles off the northeast Florida coast has become better defined today with an area of strong winds located on its east side. Showers and thunderstorms are also persisting near and to the east of the center. A short-lived subtropical or tropical depression could form later today or on Saturday while the system drifts generally north-northwestward. This low is expected to move inland over the southeastern U.S. by early Sunday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route, and the data they collect should provide more details on the system's structure. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

The coastal areas of especially much of the Carolinas are likely going to be affected a good bit this weekend by Invest 92L, located ~100 miles E of N FL as it heads generally N. Recon will be in it early this afternoon. It’s possible that they’ll find that it’s already a TD. If so, TS Chantal may not be far behind. Conditions are moderately conducive to development. See the Tropical subforum for a dedicated thread for this. Edit 5PM: officially now is TD3 and forecasted to become TS Chantal before landfall on SC

Recon will take off at noon EDT and get into it during the early afternoon: SUSPECT AREA (OFF SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST) FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 A. 04/1800Z B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST C. 04/1600Z D. 30.5N 79.5W E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2100Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST H. WRA ACTIVATION

Thanks! 1. Based on the graph, June WCS PDO calculated to be ~-1.8. Based on recent relationships between WCS and NOAA, I had said that that likely meant the June NOAA PDO was likely down to the -2.5 to -2.9 range. So, the -2.51 jibes with my expectations. 2. The unrounded AMJ ONI is -0.11. That means RONI minus ONI, -0.38, has narrowed even more. It was -0.43 in MAM, -0.49 in FMA, -0.51 in JFM, and -0.53 in DJF.

That’s consistent with this in the upper 300 meters within 180-100W:

Lots of heavy thunderstorms in the area, including right here on one of the islands that I’m visiting. Plentiful CTG lightning. Storming at my place, too, per radar. First rain of significance since way back on 6/18! Edit: My home ended up with ~0.9” on July 3rd, mainly from this thunderstorm between 1 and 2 PM.

The 30 mb June QBO dipped to -13.72 from -4.59 in May. This is following most closely the 2014 progression and secondarily to 1972: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

The WCS 7/1/25 PDO was all the way down to -3.07, the most negative WCS PDO day of any during the couple of years I’ve been following the WCS. This barely beats the -3.04 of 5/31/24 and the ~-3.02 of 10/10/24: Barring anything unexpected, this will likely bounce upward from near this level based on prior WCS dips stopping just below -3.

I forgot to add 2023-4 MEI bimonthlies, which peaked at only +1.1 in ND: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ @LibertyBell

-The 23-24 season ONI trimonthlies maxed at +1.95 in NDJ: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt -The 23-24 season RONI trimonthlies maxed at +1.50 in OND: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

Based on this graph, June WCS PDO calculates to be ~-1.8. That likely puts the June NOAA PDO, the one that the table refers to, way down in the -2.5 to -2.9 range, which is sharply down from the -1.71 of May. The current daily NOAA equivalent is likely down to the upper -3 range! The lowest daily WCS I’ve seen since starting to track this a couple of years ago is the -3.04 of 5/31/24. The 6/30/25 -3.00 is very close:

Please post your July 2025 observations as well as other current or recent conditions at any location.

Total June rainfall here was at a near normal 6.85”, with 6.8” of that falling June 1-18th. So, the last 12 days have been very dry. The first half of June had a wet 5.35”.

Per JB this morning for the N Hem this June: “In the Northern Hemisphere, we have had the average number of named storms. But now look at the ACE statistic. We are less than 1/3. Never have we had an average ACE of only 2/storm in June The average in June is 6.5. It's boggling what is going on in the WPAC, where we are at 10% of average with over 10% of their ace done.” —————- and for the Atlantic basin specifically, he said this: “The Atlantic naming were a complete joke. Isla Lobos where the so called center of Barry crossed had a half inch of rain and a gust to 22. Tampico had gusts to 31 and over 2 inches of rain and the center crossed close to them Andrea was a stratocu swirl But in a way I am glad they got named. the .6 between the 2 of them have established the all time record for weakest back to back storms at only .3 per storm”

Up to 0.64 ACE for season to date Storm Active Winds Pressure ACE Tropical Storm ANDREA 18z Jun 21 to 12z Jun 25 35kt 1014mb 0.24 Tropical Storm BARRY 00z Jun 27 to 00z Jun 30 40kt 1006mb 0.4 Season Total 18z Jun 21 to 00z Jun 30 40kt 1006mb 0.64

I guess 2025 may be the year of the ham sandwich! Technically though this may be more like a Rueben due to it being a threat to land. Regardless, congrats@BarryStantonGBP, for having a storm named after you!

@snowman19can’t stand cold/snowy weenie posts. He’s made it clear that that’s the main reason he posts like he does. What kind of winter he actually prefers may be irrelevant. I’m not a fan of weenie posts of ANY kind. Thus I try my best to avoid posting like that. It’s not easy though due to human nature.

Not a dream. It would likely put a relative lid on instability in MDR if it’s warmer to the N keeping it less active there than otherwise would be. We’ll see if temp pattern persists and how active MDR ends up.

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/ Click on 2nd thumbnail from top.

All across the MDR SSTs are ~1C cooler than to the N! This if it persists should keep a relative lid on TCs in the tropics themselves this year.