GaWx

Interesting dichotomy between the warm neutral subsurface and the cold neutral surface:

Agreed. But if it turns back down by the end of this month, the record NOAA PDO low of October 2024’s -3.80 would be in danger. For MTD, it’s likely in that vicinity now. That table goes way back to 1854.

Indeed, it’s not surprisingly bounced 0.50 from the extreme low of -3.45 of 7/8/25. This -2.95 WCS PDO translates to ~-3.75 NOAA PDO. NOAA’s dip on 7/8/25 was likely sub -4!

For the first time in weeks, the latest Euro Weeklies actually has a week forecasted to be slightly above the 2005-2024 average in the ATL basin. It’s for Aug 11-17. It has that week at 110% of 2005-24 avg: Just two runs ago it had that week at only 60% of 2005-24 avg: The highlighted areas have the highest chance (5%+) for a TC to be within 300 km:

Maybe this will help some: https://stormtrack.org/threads/highest-500-mb-height-in-history.8224/#:~:text=The source for 1994 onward,22 had no 600 line.

A pretty fast moving small shower has moved NW from offshore to here on the NE side of Invest 93L. There may be more to come within the next couple of hours. Edit: more quick showers came through hre in the early AM of 7/16, but I got nothing more than a few hundredths of an inch.

Today had a very tropical feel and look here thanks to the deep onshore flow to the north of Invest 93L coming in from several hundreds of miles offshore. How deep? It was at least to way up at 200 mb, which is near 40,000 feet! And this is expected to continue for much of the rest of this week. It is fairly rare that this far north experiences that deep of a tropical flow for that long of an uninterrupted period. This deep tropical flow: -gave us a constant pleasant ESE 10-15 mph breeze with gusts to over 20 -wind coming off the ocean kept the highs in the BN upper 80s but also kept dewpoints in the mid 70s -the skies much of the day had a tropical paradise look of towering cumulus coming off of the ocean mixed with deep blue -isolated showers came off of the ocean moving at a brisk pace and tended to diminish as they went more inland (I had no rainfall today)

Yesterday (7/14) was the first day in 6 without measurable rainfall at my location.

I recently did an analysis that showed that mid July season to date ACE has little predictive value for remainder of season ACE. Any correlation of season to date ACE for around this time of the season to ACE remaining in the season is minimal. So, it currently being lower than the normal low average ACE to date implies neither low, near average, nor high ACE to come the rest of the season. I’d say the same thing if ACE were currently high like it was in 2024. In other words, it essentially doesn’t tell us much of anything one way or the other.

My location in SAV, GA, had ~3” of sleet/snow/ZR Jan 21-22, 2025. Easily >2” of it was sleet at my location. That’s way more sleet than any other winter storm on record! Official records go back >150 years. The official record heaviest sleet was <1”. The liquid equivalent/melted precip at my location was ~1.15”! The last time that much liquid equiv of wintry precip fell in this area from one storm was way back with the icestorm of Jan 25-6, 1922, with its 1.36”. Due to most of the precip falling as sleet and the followup cold, it took a whopping 5 days to completely melt! The prior SAV frozen precip of any amount (including trace amounts) was the Jan 3, 2018 storm. This storm, similar to Jan 21-22, 2025, also had purely wintry precip (mix of ZR, sleet, and snow) with ~0.75” of liquid equiv at my location. At the time, it was also the largest amount of LE as well as heaviest ZR from one storm here since the Jan 25-6 storm of 1922! It took 4 days to melt due to most of the precip falling with temps in the mid to upper 20s and followup cold. The week Jan 1-7, 2018, was the coldest 7 day period in a number of decades! The 7 years of not even a T of wintry precip between the big 2018 and 2025 winter storms was the longest interval of no wintry precip in the SAV area at least back to the 1880s!

A new small cell literally just popped up here just before 5PM. No thunder yet, but raining pretty heavily. 5th afternoon in a row with rain! Edit 5:50 PM: That lasted ~25 minutes and there never was thunder. Now a 2nd cell with some heavy rain is coming in on the same track moving in an unusual direction, SSE. Hoping today’s totals don’t get too high because otherwise there’d be trouble here. Edit on 7/14: Yesterday (7/13) I ended up with ~0.75”, which brings the 5 day total for 7/9-13 up to a whopping 6.35” and MTD up to 7.25”!

I’m doing an AmericanWx ‘25 Open Championship contest in the PGA Tour thread of the Sports section in case anyone is interested. Several from here often participate in these:

Thanks Don. But as 30 year “normals” also rise, shouldn’t the cold anomaly coverage in cold shots at least in theory be as expansive as before?

Here’s the latest GLAAM forecast: Ninoish

Hey Chesco, Maybe so. That was a disaster waiting to happen even without CC. We’ll never know for sure about the possible influence of CC on this terrible incident as well as on many other specific incidents. But CC/GW has meant ~ a 7% increase in moisture held in the air per degree C increase. So, CC does make these incidents of very heavy rains within a fairly short period more frequent overall worldwide than before. Tropical systems, themselves, have on average gotten slightly wetter. Another thing CC has apparently caused is a slight slowdown of average steering winds due to a lowered contrast of the temperature gradient between the tropics and Arctic. Thus, the slightly slower avg movement of slightly wetter tropical systems means more frequent extreme rainfall events from tropical systems.

Barry, So that you know I’m not just making up what I said in my previous post, I’m posting the actual Euro Weekly maps of today’s run for predicted ACE that I was referring to. Note the size of the green boxes in the ATL vs PAC. That’s why I said this was suggesting “pretty quiet” in the ATL with much more action suggested in the PAC. It remains to be seen how it verifies, of course: @BarryStantonGBP July 28th-Aug 3rd: climo (orange) is 2005-2024 Aug 4th-10th:

If the last few days of Euro Weeklies were to happen to be right, it would be pretty quiet late July/early Aug. It has much more action in the Pac.

After 2 days in a row of strong late afternoon/evening T storms and 3 days in a row of storms at some point in the PM (~4.8” total for 3 days) it is doing it again. Crossing my fingers the amounts today won’t be too high as I had flooding in my garage yesterday from a high water table (and also water blew in underneath my front door into my foyer). Edit: Fortunately, I was more on the N edge of the heaviest and the heavy didn’t last nearly as long. After this ended, another period of light to moderate came a little later. I ended up with a manageable ~0.80” in total on this day (7/12) bringing my 7/9-12 total to ~5.6”! Total MTD is ~6.5”. The street and yards had started to flood again but the much shorter duration prevented more problems. Had it rained just another inch or so, it very likely would have lead to another big mess. Parts of the area from Montgomery to Skidaway Island got pummeled on 7/12 with ~3.5” per the 7/13 CocoRahs map that covers the prior 24 hrs!

-2025’s 1.46 is 52nd of the last 75 seasons ACEwise as of July 12th -The last season with 7/12 ACE lower was 2009’s 0 -But 2004, 1998, 1985, 1969, and 1955 also had 0 in addition to 11 others -The predictive value of 7/12 ACE for the remainder of season’s ACE is virtually 0 -Here’s the 7/12 ACE position out of 74 for seasons with 150+ ACE remainder of season: 2nd, 6th, 14th, 17th, 18th, 24th, 31st, 34th, 59th-61st, 66th -So, avg 7/12 position of seasons with 150+ ACE to follow: 33rd of 74

We’re getting blasted with a thunderstorm now! 3rd day in a row with a storm. Edit: The total for this day (7/11) ended up being ~2.8” with most of it falling in just over 1 hour. That brought 3 day totals to ~4.8”! The flooding in many areas of midtown and the southside was bad. The flooding on my street (and andjacent sidewalk) and into my property was the worst so far this year. Much of backyard (especially from back portion into patio) as well as frontyard (courtyard and in front of garage) was flooded. The garage held up through most of it until the flooding in the yard in front of it appeared to have forced water to surge inside between the foundation and the bottom of the wall as I didn’t see any leaking at the ends of the garage door. Despite my push brooming a lot of water out, it was relentless and kept coming back and eventually spread all of the way over to the storage room on the other side! I also had the most I can ever remember in my foyer from rain splashing and/or blowing into my front door. I had a puddle that soaked a portion of the rug.

He doesn’t post here. Of course I have no idea if he reads it.

RONI could dip as low as moderate La Niña but I currently am forecasting ~-0.4 cold neutral ONI low point and -0.6 to -0.9 RONI low point (weak La Niña).

I have EPO and PNA back only to 1950: -1962-3, 1967-8, Jan of 1985, and 2013-14 were all -EPO dominated -All of the above were +PNA dominated except just Jan of the 2013-4 winter

Snowman, Further to my post above, three of the greatest (and arguably the two greatest are in this) E US Arctic outbreaks on record occurred during 2nd year -ENSO: -Feb of 1899 -Jan of 1985 -Jan of 2014 Mere coincidence especially with sample size tiny? @snowman19

There are usually exceptions to any rule. These 2nd year -ENSO winters or portions of winters were cold in much of the E US: -1898-9 (including great 2/1899 frigid period)(March was also cold with its own outbreak early) -1909-10 (Dec/Feb) -1962-3 (frigid) -1967-8 (Jan-Feb) -Jan of 1985 (though Dec of 1984 warm) -2013-4 especially Midwest