GaWx

I just saw it. A -3.45 WCS PDO as of 7/8/25! New lowest I’ve ever seen!

A band of heavy thunderstorms has popped up in this area early this afternoon along the seabreeze. Coming down pretty hard now. Edit: That storm ended up being pretty wet. We also got a small amount late in the afternoon from other showers. Total for the day (7/9/25): ~0.75”.

This 7/9/25 CSU update was just posted at storm 2K: note that this isn’t anywhere close to saying “season cancel” as it is merely a slight decrease to still slightly above activity vs the recent active era: ACE dropped from 155 to 140, which is still 18 greater than 1991-2020 avg: CSU July 9 updateWe have decreased our forecast slightly and now call for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season. The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear. High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons. However, we also anticipate the tropical Pacific to be characterized by ENSO neutral conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity. Analog years for 2025 with the associated hurricane activity listed for each year.Year NS NSD H HD MH MHD ACE NTC2001 15 68.75 9 25.50 4 4.25 110.1 135.32008 16 88.25 8 30.50 5 7.50 145.7 162.32011 19 89.75 7 26.00 4 4.50 126.3 144.92021 21 79.75 7 27.75 4 12.75 145.6 173.7Average 17.8 81.6 7.8 27.4 4.3 7.3 131.9 154.02025 Forecast 16 80 8 30 3 8 140 145

Just to clarify for the readers here who don’t read the small print and do the calendar calculations, this Euro Weeklies map from yesterday covers *August 4-10. *Corrected dates to Aug 4-10 as I had first said Aug 5-12

Thanks, Chris. 1. About what % of the warming of US winters since 1970s would you guess is due to the +AMO? 2. About what % of the overall warming of US winters since the 1970s would you guess is due to the increasing UHI effect at major stations? 3. About how much would you say US winters have warmed due strictly to AGW?

Barry, Who on Storm 2K is calling for season cancel? I’ve seen nobody say anything of the sort. I’ve seen someone say “not very active”, which doesn’t at all mean season cancel. There’s a whole lot of options between very active and season cancel. I’ve seen someone else say the warmer subtropics vs tropics tend to suppress basin activity, but that also isn’t the same thing as season cancel.

Thanks, Charlie. Another factor I’ve found is for shallow waters like those near the FL Keys: rainfall/clouds. The lack thereof lead to an extreme marine heatwave there that lead to badly bleached coral. When the clouds/rains returned, it cooled back quite a bit.

There were numerous crazy high 24 hour rainfall amounts in C NC! It’s been over 25 years (almost back to when World Wide Web came into existence) since widespread very heavy 24 hour rainfall amounts like these occurred in this region: Insanity: PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1134 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025 ...24 HOUR PRECIPITATION REPORTS OVER 7 INCHES ENDING AT 8AM FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ..NORTH CAROLINA ..ALAMANCE COUNTY MEBANE 3.0 SSW 9.73 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS BURLINGTON 3.9 NNW 8.01 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS 0.5 SW HAW RIVER 7.79 IN 1045 AM 07/07 COOP 1.3 SE GRAHAM 7.62 IN 0705 AM 07/07 COOP ..CHATHAM COUNTY 2.4 N MONCURE 11.92 IN 1045 AM 07/07 COOP PITTSBORO 8.8 NNE 11.53 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 5.0 NE 10.37 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 3.3 NNW 10.35 IN 0849 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 10.15 IN 1055 AM 07/07 CWOP CHAPEL HILL 5.9 SW 10.05 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 5.4 WSW 9.44 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 8.6 SSW 9.25 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 0.8 NNW 9.12 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS SILER CITY 6.6 ENE 9.10 IN 0640 AM 07/07 COCORAHS SILER CITY 8.1 ENE 8.14 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS GOLDSTON 3.8 N 7.94 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS SILER CITY 7.2 NE 7.54 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS SILER CITY 7.23 IN 1055 AM 07/07 CWOP SILER CITY 7.10 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS ..DURHAM COUNTY DURHAM 4.6 WNW 8.46 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS DURHAM 5.8 NW 8.23 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 7.26 IN 1100 AM 07/07 CWOP DURHAM 5.2 NW 7.19 IN 0615 AM 07/07 COCORAHS ..MOORE COUNTY 2 WSW WHISPERING PINES 7.45 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS WHISPERING PINES 1.0 SW 7.20 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS ..ORANGE COUNTY HILLSBOROUGH 8.4 NNE 10.49 IN 0840 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 7.4 NW 10.43 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 4.5 WSW 10.22 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 5.6 NNW 9.96 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CARRBORO 0.7 NNE 9.82 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS DURHAM 6.7 WNW 9.80 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 4.7 SW 9.57 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS DUKE FOREST DURHAM 11 W 9.36 IN 1100 AM 07/07 HADS DURHAM 9.28 IN 1045 AM 07/07 CWOP CHAPEL HILL 2.0 NNE 9.20 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS EFLAND 4.0 NNW 9.10 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 0.6 NNW 8.89 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS EFLAND 8.75 IN 1055 AM 07/07 CWOP CHAPEL HILL 4.3 WSW 8.70 IN 0730 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 1.8 S 8.41 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CARRBORO 0.8 SE 8.36 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 1.5 NE 8.36 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CARRBORO 0.6 NNE 8.32 IN 0602 AM 07/07 COCORAHS 0.5 SE CARRBORO 8.00 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COOP CHAPEL HILL 8.2 W 7.92 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 7.88 IN 1229 AM 07/07 CWOP DUKE FOREST MET STA NR CHAPE 7.82 IN 1016 AM 07/07 RAWS CHAPEL HILL 7.2 WSW 7.76 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 4.0 WNW 7.73 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 9.4 W 7.69 IN 0730 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HURDLE MILLS 7.58 IN 1045 AM 07/07 CWOP ROUGEMONT 4.7 SW 7.54 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 11.4 W 7.53 IN 0715 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 4.0 SSW 7.48 IN 0600 AM 07/07 COCORAHS 1 SE CHAPEL HILL 7.33 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 2.8 SSW 7.27 IN 0709 AM 07/07 COCORAHS 2 NNE CHAPEL HILL 7.21 IN 1105 AM 07/07 AWS ..PERSON COUNTY HURDLE MILLS 5.2 NNW 9.15 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS

The WCS version of the PDO has fallen quite a bit more since July 2nd. As of July 6th, it’s way down to -3.29! It was actually down to ~-3.30 on July 5th. I’ve never seen this so negative. The NOAA daily PDO is likely down to sub -4!

Is there a chance that the name Barry will be retired as a result of the TX floods?

But not in Atlanta, where they had a ~4.5” (major) snowstorm in early Jan, the biggest since the 3/1993 blizzard.

How remnants of Tropical Storm Barry are to blame for Texas floods The tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, combined with a stationary storm complex (which provided the lift) that was already sitting over Texas, resulted in slow-moving heavy downpours that produced prolific rainfall totals over a short period of time. https://www.winknews.com/weather/explainers/how-remnants-of-tropical-storm-barry-are-to-blame-for-texas-floods/article_9eaa0636-38cd-4cc3-a058-5f5a926cb314.html

Early afternoon popup thunderstorms along the sea breeze in this area. I just started getting light to moderate rain a few minutes ago.

When was the last single event for which most of this section of central NC received this much rainfall within a 24 hour period?

Despite running well ahead of normal with already 3 NS, the ACE through July 6th is still only at 1.46 vs the 1951-2024 avg of 4.12! That is lower than 46 of those 74 years. I’ll now compare to other years since 1951 with 3+ NS by July 6th along with their ACE: Year: NS/ACE 1954: 3/8.56 1959: 4/7.18 1968: 3/13.54 2005: 4/5.84 2012: 4/11.2 2016: 4/6.85 2017: 3/3.18 2020: 5/7.24 2021: 5/10.59 2023: 3/8.62 2024: 3/32.57 2025: 3/1.46 Note that for these 12 seasons since 1951 with 3+ NS by July 6th, the year 2025 has by far the lowest ACE/storm (0.49)! That easily beats the 2nd lowest, 2017’s 1.06/storm. The highest is 2024’s 10.86/storm. The avg of these 12 seasons through July 6th is ~2.8 ACE/storm.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1042 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 ...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY AND INCREASED IN DURATION FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH CAROLINA... HAW RIVER AT HAW RIVER AFFECTING ALAMANCE COUNTY. 250707T1727Z.NO/ 1042 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 ..FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING * WHAT...MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * WHERE...HAW RIVER AT HAW RIVER. * WHEN...UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...AT 18.0 FEET, MINOR FLOODING BEGINS. OVERFLOW BEGINS ON BOTH BANKS AT THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT. AT 20.0 FEET, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT OVERFLOW ON THE RIGHT BANK OPPOSITE THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT. WATER ALSO REACHES THE RED SLIDE PARK UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN ST. BRIDGE. AT 23.0 FEET, MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS. FLOODING REACHES THE BASE OF THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT BUILDING. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF THE RED SLIDE PARK UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN ST. BRIDGE, AND LANG ST WILL BE IMPASSABLE AT 25.5 FEET, THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT BUILDING FLOODS. AT 26.0 FEET, TRAILER HOMES ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AND THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT FLOOD. EVACUATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY. AT 27.0 FEET, MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS. THE TOWN OF HAW RIVER BEGINS TO FLOOD. AT 28.0 FEET, FLOOD WATERS REACH THE BOTTOM OF THE BRIDGE ACROSS I40. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 9:45 PM EDT SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.5 FEET. - FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO A CREST OF 27.5 FEET JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. - FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. - FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 26.3 FEET ON 09/17/2018. - HTTP://www.weather.gov/SAFETY/FLOOD FLD OBSERVED FORECASTS (8 PM EDT) LOCATION STG STG DAY/TIME MON TUE WED THU HAW RIVER HAW RIVE 18.0 25.5 SUN 9 PM EDT 14.0 10.6 8.4 6.0

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1032 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 200 AM EDT. * AT 1032 PM EDT, WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF ORANGE, ALAMANCE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE AREA WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES HAVE OCCURRED THIS EVENING AND SOME HOMES FLOODED. PLEASE DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... CHAPEL HILL, BURLINGTON, GRAHAM, HILLSBOROUGH, PITTSBORO, SILER CITY, CARRBORO, MEBANE, GOLDSTON, ELON, GIBSONVILLE, LIBERTY, HAW RIVER, RAMSEUR, FRANKLINVILLE, SWEPSONVILLE, ALAMANCE, STALEY AND SUTPHIN.

I just read that water rescues are taking place in Orange County, the county where Chapel Hill is located: "’People trapped with water up to their necks or higher’ at camelot village apts in CH”

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 935 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... PERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 145 AM EDT. * AT 935 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. SOURCE...RADAR. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... ROXBORO, CONCORD, SURL, BUSHY FORK, BETHEL HILL, MAYO RESERVOIR, HYCO LAKE, HYCO MARINA AND MORIAH. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AREAS ACROSS PERSON COUNTY COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

I don’t see a color/amounts guide, but this clearly shows where the heaviest has already fallen. I read that some areas have already gotten 8-10”!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 704 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * AT 704 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS. SOURCE...RADAR. IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... DURHAM, HILLSBOROUGH, ROUGEMONT, SCHLEY, ENO RIVER STATE PARK, BAHAMA, LAKE MICHIE, CARR, AND UNION RIDGE.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 656 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... A DAM FAILURE OF A FARM POND AT THE HEAD OF JOES FORK IN... CENTRAL MOORE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1245 AM EDT. * AT 656 PM EDT, LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THE IMMINENT FAILURE OF THE FARM POND DAM. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING FROM THE IMMINENT FAILURE OF A FARM POND A THE HEAD OF JOES FORK. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FARM POND AT THE HEAD OF JOES FORK. * THE NEAREST DOWNSTREAM LOCATION IS MAIN STREET BETWEEN RICHMOND ST AND ALSTON DR IN TAYLORTOWN. ROADS ALONG AND ADJACENT TO JOES FORK MAY BECOME FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG JOES CREEK BETWEEN TAYLORTOWN AND WHISPERING PINES YOU SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.

This is bad, folks, especially for areas west of the Fayetteville to Raleigh corridor, where very heavy rains have fallen: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 709 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN HOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... LEE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... MOORE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHEASTERN RICHMOND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1115 PM EDT. * AT 709 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE HEAVY RAIN HAS LARGELY ENDED, HOWEVER EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED UP TO 7 INCHES OF OVER MOORE COUNTY. FLOODING IS ONGOING. HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS. SOURCE...RADAR. IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... SANFORD, SOUTHERN PINES, TROY, CARTHAGE, PINEHURST, ABERDEEN, BISCOE, HOFFMAN, WHISPERING PINES, PINEBLUFF, ROBBINS, FOXFIRE, STAR, CANDOR, TAYLORTOWN, VASS, CAMERON AND NORMAN.

Maybe so, but keep in mind that H5 forecasts are sometimes pretty lousy, themselves.

Unfortunately, the best I’ve found archived is the 0.5 month lead like I posted. They did pretty well in Nov of 2015 for DJF 2015-6: I give them a B for the US as a whole -They did so-so in Nov 2016 for DJF 2016-7: my grade C for US overall -NOAA did well in 11/2017 for DJF 2017-8: A -They were absolutely awful in 11/2018 for 2018-9: F -2019-20 mediocre at best: C -2020-1 poor: D -2021-2 pretty good: B -2022-3 pretty good: B -2023-4 very good: A -2024-5 lousy: D —————— Summary of my overall US grades of Nov NOAA probabilities for DJF temps: 2013-4: C 2014-5: B 2015-6: B 2016-7: C 2017-8: A 2018-9: F 2019-20: C 2020-1: D 2021-2: B 2022-3: B 2023-4: A 2024-5: D Tally: A: 2 B: 4 C: 3 D: 2 F: 1 NOAA GPA for 0.5 month lead of last 12 DJF for US as a whole: 2.3/C+ (not bad)