GaWx

What does “at NOAA’s EMC responsible for keeping all US weather model systems running” mean specifically? Does this mean instead of humans operating the computers that the models would just run automatically? I kind of thought they pretty much already did. If so, is it possible that this change would be a legit way to increase efficiency without decreasing what NOAA provides to the public? I’m trying to keep an open mind to some cuts as long as they wouldn’t undermine the services provided. Even if so, the one hour notice seems awfully abrupt!

1. Did this actually occur today or is this from another day? 2. What is the meaning of “probationary” federal employees? 3. What does “at NOAA’s EMC responsible for keeping all US weather model systems running” mean specifically? Does this mean instead of humans operating the computers that the models would just run automatically? I kind of thought they pretty much already did. If so, is it possible that this change would be a legit way to increase efficiency without decreasing what NOAA provides to the public? Even if so, the one hour notice seems awfully abrupt!

The good news is that it hasn’t actually occurred yet. With enough pushback/protest from Levi and others, hopefully that would make a difference and keep cuts, if any, reasonable. Silence would be the worst thing because it implies being ok with big cuts.

Nothing specific yet. The purpose of Levi’s tweet is to provide pushback and encourage others to push back. The more pushback/protests, the lower the chance for massive cuts. The worst thing would be silence. Silence is often deemed to be equivalent to being ok with an action. Edit: Of course as wx enthusiasts, most of us are probably going to be biased against cuts.

This from Dr. Levi Cowan: In the tweet below he said: “My personal mission to bring hurricane science, data, and forecasts to the public would not be possible without the weather observations, doppler radar stations, computer models, hurricane hunter aircraft, and weather satellites provided by NOAA and the NWS. Your favorite weather apps, TV meteorologists, and private weather companies would also be unable to function without this data or the civil servants who live and breathe it to synthesize it into public safety information. All of these benefits cost each taxpayer the equivalent of a few cups of coffee per year, and surveys show most would be willing to pay much more. The American weather enterprise saves many, many times more money than it costs to run, making it one of the biggest bangs for your buck in the government. The impact of quality weather forecasts and infrastructure on society is multiplied many-fold by preventing economic disruptions, keeping public transportation efficient, and providing lead time to prepare for and mitigate disasters. Most importantly, it saves priceless lives. Careful, long-term plans to streamline or reorient the weather enterprise in an evolving world are not bad, but *this plan* is insane. A feverish rush to take a cleaver to this workforce is self-destructive and dangerous to Americans who rely on the services they provide.” ————————— My comments: Massive cuts to the life-saving, very efficiently run NWS/NOAA would be very stupid and dangerous imho. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail! Edit: Of course as wx enthusiasts, most of us are probably going to be biased against cuts.

This from Dr. Levi Cowan: In the tweet below he said: “My personal mission to bring hurricane science, data, and forecasts to the public would not be possible without the weather observations, doppler radar stations, computer models, hurricane hunter aircraft, and weather satellites provided by NOAA and the NWS. Your favorite weather apps, TV meteorologists, and private weather companies would also be unable to function without this data or the civil servants who live and breathe it to synthesize it into public safety information. All of these benefits cost each taxpayer the equivalent of a few cups of coffee per year, and surveys show most would be willing to pay much more. The American weather enterprise saves many, many times more money than it costs to run, making it one of the biggest bangs for your buck in the government. The impact of quality weather forecasts and infrastructure on society is multiplied many-fold by preventing economic disruptions, keeping public transportation efficient, and providing lead time to prepare for and mitigate disasters. Most importantly, it saves priceless lives. Careful, long-term plans to streamline or reorient the weather enterprise in an evolving world are not bad, but *this plan* is insane. A feverish rush to take a cleaver to this workforce is self-destructive and dangerous to Americans who rely on the services they provide.” ————————— My comments: Massive cuts to the life-saving, very efficiently run NWS/NOAA would be very stupid and dangerous imho. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail! Edit: Of course as wx enthusiasts, most of us are probably going to be biased against cuts.

Levi also said this: “My personal mission to bring hurricane science, data, and forecasts to the public would not be possible without the weather observations, doppler radar stations, computer models, hurricane hunter aircraft, and weather satellites provided by NOAA and the NWS. Your favorite weather apps, TV meteorologists, and private weather companies would also be unable to function without this data or the civil servants who live and breathe it to synthesize it into public safety information. All of these benefits cost each taxpayer the equivalent of a few cups of coffee per year, and surveys show most would be willing to pay much more. The American weather enterprise saves many, many times more money than it costs to run, making it one of the biggest bangs for your buck in the government. The impact of quality weather forecasts and infrastructure on society is multiplied many-fold by preventing economic disruptions, keeping public transportation efficient, and providing lead time to prepare for and mitigate disasters. Most importantly, it saves priceless lives. Careful, long-term plans to streamline or reorient the weather enterprise in an evolving world are not bad, but *this plan* is insane. A feverish rush to take a cleaver to this workforce is self-destructive and dangerous to Americans who rely on the services they provide.” ————————— Massive cuts to the life-saving, very efficiently run NWS/NOAA would be very stupid and dangerous imho. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail!

Go to the bottom at this link for 1990-1 through 2022-3: http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/strat/

Indeed, there are plenty of exceptions. Though it was a major SSW (a reversal that wasn’t a FW), this one (3/24/2010) was a very weak and short reversal and late enough so that it was only ~12 m/s BN at the low point:

RDU normal high is only 61 on Mar 10th. The actual WB GFS output shows a high on that day of only 38. That’s 13-14 below the mid Jan normal highs! Of course it won’t be on the next run, regardless. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah Edit: Record low high is 38. There have been 2 measurable snows on 3/10. One had 8”!! That day’s high was 40. The other day with measurable snow had a high of 42. Thus, this cold of an airmass could easily be cold enough to produce snow with the right storm track. Update: Not unexpectedly, the 0Z GFS had nothing of the sort.

Thank you! Ironically, Holy Barney! Mainly for entertainment since it is out in fantasyland on the potentially drunk Happy Hour run: GFS has winter briefly return Mar 10-12 with temps BN even vs midwinter normals including hard freezes for most well inland locations and freezes almost down to Hogtown, FL! Even daytime highs are cold with upper 30s to 40s for many. This is from a rapidly plunging Arctic high. It will very likely not be anywhere near this cold then on the next run. So, enjoy it while it is showing up. Barney says “Hey boys and girls!” Does Barney drink?

New Euro Weeklies: Not surprisingly based on recent cooling of model consensus, Mar 3-9 SE now has NN temps vs AN on prior 3 runs. The NN is really a mix of BN to AN. So, no torch domination til at least mid March. Otherwise, the rest of the run’s averaged weeks remain AN/mild to warm Mar 10-Apr 6, similar to the last 5 runs.

Not for me. As long as wx is happening (which is 24/7 all year long), it’s always possible I’ll post about it in obs thread. Ma Nature never gets shut-eye. Posts would be in here when looking ahead. Freezes are on the way!

Today’s 0Z GFS has a 60N 10 mb wind reversal on 3/10. But is it calling for a major SSW or a final warming? Back to 1958, there has been only one FW then or earlier, Mar 5th (2016). That one had the strongest Mar reversal on record (~-32). But there have also been three FWs on Mar 11-12. So, it is possible that it would be a FW. But there have also been 6 major SSW Mar 13-25. 1. 1965: SSW 3/25; FW 4/19 2. 1969: SSW 3/13; FW 4/13 3. 1971: SSW 3/20; FW 4/24 4. 1988: SSW 3/14; FW 4/6 5. 2000: SSW 3/20; FW 4/9 6. 2010: SSW 3/24; FW 4/30 Right now I’d say the betting odds would somewhat favor major SSW. If that occurs, that doesn’t necessarily mean late Mar/Apr would be cool. If that were to be a FW, that also wouldn’t necessarily mean a cool late Mar and April would be favored. The 3/5/2016 FW is a great example as Mar as a whole was mild. (I didn’t check to see if the 2nd half by itself was cool, but that’s doubtful.)

Chuck, I see NG is -3.5% for the day currently.

Best opportunity for next freeze in NC Triad/Triangle is Mon AM with some chance Sun AM especially Triad. Most likely not hard freeze in most of that region as of now, but that may change especially for a Monday. This is all per RDU NWS forecasts.

Rapid warming of OHC this month:

0Z GFS run overall is coldest in quite some time. Though not to the Barney degree, it is colder for both cold snaps of early Mar. Take with huge grain this Kuchera clown (a day earlier than 12Z Euro snow): Edit: 0Z Euro lost most of its NC snow outside of the mountains (no surprise of course). 6Z GFS lost most of the 0Z GFS’ snow outside of mountains.

The 12z EPS was a bit colder for Mar 2-3 and Mar 8-10 in the SE vs 0Z and even moreso vs yesterday’s 12Z. It has solidly BN periods (but nothing severe) throughout SE then surrounded by AN periods….so two weeks average NN. Pattern not much different though. Take this modest snow signal (fwiw) with a gigantic grain since it is out in fantasyland: Regardless, there’s a good chance for two nice upslope periods in the first 10 days of March.

NG is up 4% today on several colder days in the EUS (not overall pattern) during two early March mainly moderate cold snaps.

We finally made it to the climo coldest day in the Arctic, Feb 25th (per blue line):

All I’m saying is that the MJO is forecasted by most models to be in either phase 1 or 2 in early Mar, which on average have been cooler than normal (especially the coldest phase on avg, 2): Those are only averages. So, it could easily end up not BN. The other indices (including EPO) say that a strong cold push or multiday period of BN in the SE US in early Mar will be a challenge though of course not impossible, especially in NC based on model progs. Even if it is BN for a few days then, that’s of course far from meaning a NC snowstorm outside of the mountains is likely. It is important to realize that although the Euro Weeklies have done pretty well this winter, the Euro ops have had a cold bias overall, especially beyond 5 days. Remember the many Euro Barney outbreaks that ended up being no more than a Dino? That’s despite the actual cold outbreaks we had.

This Barney snow machine on day 11-12 on the 12Z Euro is of practically no forecasting value. Also, the Euro op has been too cold on many runs this winter, regardless, with numerous false Barneys. This is nothing more than entertainment that far out. The forecasts for indices like PNA, AO, and NAO actually favor warmth. The MJO though is forecasted to be in cool phases fwiw.