GaWx

Related to this, it does look like that starting ~10/8 that the unprecedented during 2nd half of year (back to 1974 ) ~5 1/2 week long clockwise domination of the track will finally end.

The Euro is still jumping around quite a bit with the track. The 12Z has it much further SSW with it never getting close to the Mid-Atlantic states: From that position, it weakens as it moves WSW and then dies as the center reaches far S SC. This track is an outlier.

The Sept QBO dropped a little further as expected and was at -24.26: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Yeah, unfortunately just about all of the major operational model runs now have this nor’easter heavily influencing the wx from E NC through the Mid-Atlantic states by late this weekend. The main holdout, the GFS, finally joined in with its 0Z run. Let’s see whether or not they maintain it on future runs. It’s looking bleak right now.

I disagree that it would have been a snowstorm 20 years ago. It could easily have been several degrees cooler but not nearly cold enough for a snowstorm imho.

Hey Charlie, Thanks. I had no idea because I hadn’t checked his source’s (CO2Science) bias rating. I just did my own check and see at the reputable “mediabiasfactcheck” that it’s rated as “low” on factual reporting and “pseudoscience”. It says that it “promotes climate change denial and misinformation”. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/co2-science-bias-and-credibility/ This, I just posted this to him: I then googled CO2Science, myself, and saw at the reputable “mediabiasfactcheck” that it’s rated as “low” on factual reporting and “pseudoscience”. It says that it “promotes climate change denial and misinformation”. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/co2-science-bias-and-credibility/ Sorry, but unfortunately this source, just like “Watts Up with That?”, isn’t going to cut it for my use due to bias as mediabiasfactcheck rates it with the same “pseudoscience” rating that it rated Watts with. I appreciate your help though.

Euro (0Z) has it again with it right on the coast Sunday morning. Aren’t hybrid nor’easters not an uncommon occurrence in late October/early Nov in that region? This would be a bit earlier than that:

I’ve been getting off and on rains (mainly on) the last few hours from showers moving WNW from the ocean, including some short periods of heavy.

Sept NOAA PDO continues its rise though it appears to be steadying out for now per the WCS dailies: 2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03 2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.66 -2.62 -4.15 -3.18 -2.38

0Z CMC has the hybrid, too, for Sunday:

The 0Z GFS has joined the hybrid/nor’easter party for a week from today: Edit: GEFS largely agrees with the GFS big change

Not always though. See 2023-4, for example, which was way too cold along with most other models. They all forecasted a classic Nino Aleutian low and you probably remember that it strangely enough verified closer to a La Ninaish Aleutian high! I did and posted an analysis here of all of them back to 2017-8. I’ll recheck it asap.

Followup: Regarding the hybrid that should keep the E coast safe from tropical, will it be safe from the hybrid, itself? This would be still another mess on the already hard hit NC coast! 18Z Euro: sfc: total rain thru 144 with some still falling near coast: winds:

Hey Charlie, As promised with the help of a Midwest pro met., here is the first response supporting the net benefit of CC to crops. This one covers soybeans (posts to cover other crops to come later): Let's separate out other factors(technology for instance), so that we can look only at the photosynthetic benefits from increasing CO2 to soybeans. Turns out that the impact of CO2 on soybeans has more studies than almost any other plant. Here's how to access the empirical evidence/data from the site that has more of it than any other. Please go to this link: http://www.co2science.org/data/data.php Go to plant growth data base: http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/plantgrowth.php Go to plant dry weight(biomass): http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/dry_subject.php Pick the name of a plant, any plant and go to it based on its starting letter. Let's pick soybeans. Go to the letter S: http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/dry_subject_s.php Then scroll down and hit soybeans. This is what you get: http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/g/glycinem.php Look at the following screenshot for the table showing the large benefits of CO2 to soybeans:

I was wondering what’s the deal with that hybridish nor’easter offshore the E coast this weekend into next week? It’s on all 12Z major ops in one form or another. As you implied, the 12Z Euro has this, which had moved NNE from off the SE US and then turns sharply left into NJ in Sandy fashion:

Hey Charlie, I need to put a detailed post together about the net benefits of CC on crops and will do that ASAP!

What’s with that hybridish nor’easter offshore the E coast this weekend into next week? It’s on all 12Z major ops in one form or another.

12Z UKMET: further SW than 0Z as it goes WNW to Leewards and PR followed by NW and then NNW turn to near Erin’s position NE of Turks/Caicos (pretty weak and a little weaker than 0Z) with a safe recurve from the Conus as it is taken out by an upper trough: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.6N 53.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 09.10.2025 84 14.2N 55.1W 1009 36 1200UTC 09.10.2025 96 15.4N 58.6W 1009 37 0000UTC 10.10.2025 108 16.5N 61.9W 1008 33 1200UTC 10.10.2025 120 17.1N 64.7W 1009 34 0000UTC 11.10.2025 132 18.9N 67.3W 1008 33 1200UTC 11.10.2025 144 20.5N 69.1W 1008 38 0000UTC 12.10.2025 156 22.3N 70.6W 1007 34 1200UTC 12.10.2025 168 24.2N 71.4W 1006 33 ————- Edit: Does anyone know how to save an image from Pivotal if not a member without having to do a screenshot?

Thanks for clarifying. Regarding MDR activity, 2025 sort of reminds me of a quieter version of these 3 years of the current active era that had all MDR TC origins recurve safely from the Conus: 1995: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Emily); was also La Niña 2010: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Earl); was also La Nina 2023: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Lee) and similar to 2014: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Bertha)

Followup to above post: Followup: rain became moderate to even heavy at times and more continuous the last few hours including some heavy rain in a thunderstorm a little while ago. But so far there’s been no flooding in my location as the totals appear to be no more than 1” so far. Now the precip. elements are moving more SE to NW.This FFW was released, mainly for N and W parts of my county as my area hasn’t had the 2-3” referenced:BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1121 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 215 PM EDT. * AT 1121 AM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... POOLER, I-16/I-95 INTERCHANGE, SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, GODLEY STATION, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, GARDEN CITY, PORT WENTWORTH, BLOOMINGDALE AND MEINHARD. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN CHATHAM COUNTY. THE SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURED 1.53 INCHES IN AN HOUR AND OTHER AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES IN THE AREA HAVE MEASURED NEARLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY. @buckeyefan1please pin. TIA I ended up with 0.75” for the period starting Saturday night and ending at sunset yesterday (10/5).

New (Oct) Euro precip anomaly forecast for DJF: very slightly wetter in NE/SE and very slightly drier part of Midwest vs Sept outlook and similar to Oct ‘24 outlook for last winter/La Ninaish NN much of E US but BN signal deep SE with lack of dominant ST jet Sept ‘25 outlook for DJF: Last Oct precip for last winter:

More (2M temps) from brand new Euro winter outlook: Oct (brand new) is somewhat mild in much of US similar to Sept outlook with mainly ~2-3.5 F AN (vs 1993-2016 base) in much of the US and mainly ~2 F AN much of NE US and ~2.5-3 AN much of SE US with best chance closer to 1 AN N tier from Wash state to Lakes, where it cooled ~1F from Sept outlook: Sept outlook was similarly fairly mild in most of the US: For comparison, here was last Oct’s outlook for DJF 24-5: was actually slightly warmer in the NE and we know that verified to be much too warm most of US Actual DJF 2024-5: much colder than Oct Euro forecast! Was Oct ‘24 the warmest Oct. DJF forecast for the NE back to 2017? No, it actually was this one for 2020-1, which like 2024-5 verified to be significantly too warm most of US: Actual DJF 2020-1: significantly colder than Oct Euro forecast! @snowman19

Thanks for the reminder! Here are the last two runs of Euro DJF H5 maps to compare: October (just released): very La Ninaish…hopefully this will be wrong just like 2024-5 was! Most negative anomalies in N Hem west of Hudson Bay (Ninaish): September run for DJF: didn’t have as strong of an Aleutian ridge; E US ridge similar:

This is now Invest 95L: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Tropical Atlantic (AL95): A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. @bigtenfan

The latest Euro Weeklies are the most active yet in the W Caribbean for the week of 10/13-19 (if I were in the FL pen., especially S half, I’d be pretty concerned for midmonth): Forecast nearby TC probabilities: Forecasted anomalies vs 2005-24 climo: wow!