GaWx

I realize the upper energy is expected to produce a little more snow in much of the area. But based on what has fallen, any opinions about which global did best? I know the UKMET cut its totals way down starting with the 0Z 1/17 run and went too low for the most part at least in the RDU area after earlier being a bit too high on some even after adjusting the inaccurate Pivotal clown maps downward. The Euro was way too high as we know in many N areas including RDU on some runs 0Z 1/16 and earlier, but it seemed to do fairly well afterward once it knocked the amounts (snow and qpf down). Didn’t the steady GFS do pretty well in RDU? Was it the best? Maybe not the Goofy of old??

A palm tree surviving in Raleigh? That’s impressive! Has the climate warmed that much?

1.8” but that’s only through 4PM

RDU averages: 1971-2000: 6.9” 1981-2010: 5.9” 1991-2020: 5.1” From https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah Charlotte averages: 1971-2000: 5.2” 1981-2010: 4.2” 1991-2020: 3.5” From https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp So, you’re right that RDU hasn't averaged twice as much as Charlotte. It has been more like 1.33 to 1.45 as much. But RDU averaged a bit more than you said.

Bismarck, ND, had a record low yesterday of -39F. There’s been only one low as cold or colder than that that later in the season there and that was the very next date: -43 on 2/19/1929. That’s quite impressive considering our warmer globe and especially because record low lows have been especially more difficult. Minot, ND, set a new record low of -33F, which is the latest that cold in the season. Although records only go back to 1948, that’s obviously still quite impressive!

A rainy chilly day (high 40s to 50) here all day. The high will be ~15 BN.

I’m in SE GA and know of only 3 others from the general area who (semi) actively post. And I’m much further than you from RDU/GSO. So, take your situation and multiply it by 100. That’s my situation. Charlotte may be irrelevant but Savannah/Waycross hardly even exist relatively speaking! But I’m not complaining and have no choice/accept it as the higher interest follows the locations of most posts: RDU/GSO. Fortunately, I enjoy tracking wx/models in the SE regardless of where, what kind of wx, etc. Doesn’t have to be IMBY wintry, which is obviously the most exciting but rare. (I never had a chance with this storm.) Otherwise, I’d hardly be posting. I like to track temps, rain, wind, and other wx too. I enjoy following model trends and evaluating models due to my statistical background.

New Euro Weeklies fwiw have a colder signal for the week Mar 3-9: Yesterday it had a decent mild signal: Today the signal has switched to a neutral to weak cold signal: H5 changes for same week: Yesterday: Today:

Would you mind pinning a thread for us in the SE forum? It is the 2/19-20 obs thread. Our moderators haven’t been available for awhile. TIA

@buckeyefan1 @jburns Please pin this thread. Thank you.

Well Tony and other SE snowlovers, there’s this pure entertainment value from the 12Z GFS for late March 2-3: Of course, daytime Barney is there:

This is Atlanta’s forecast: What’s with the “very light” drizzle? Isn’t drizzle all very light by definition? REST OF TODAY CLOUDY. SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. TONIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE EVENING

Here’s the main change for Wake county, which is for tonight and which lead to the WSW: TONIGHT CLOUDY. SNOW, SLEET WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING, THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. Prior to this, they had “little or no” additional accumulation tonight.

3K 6Z NAM 850 0C line is much further north than the 0Z. Now it has significant sleet in RDU!

Sounds good to me, Tony! And as Tony has often reminded us, don’t write off winter til after the Masters (mid April)! In the meantime, a full 5 weeks before the Masters, the 0Z EPS continues to show influence from a famous purple dinosaur (not dsaur lol): check out the cross polar flow! Coldest anomalies for any land region in the N Hem…sound familiar?

0Z Euro Kuchera: up slightly at RDU to 2.6” from 2.4”/2.3” prior two runs: RDU qpf 0.29” (nearly) all falling as snow; slightly higher than prior 4 runs (they were 0.25-0.26”):

For the record to help evaluate model performance, 0Z UKMET for RDU dropped to 0.9” snow on 10:1 of qpf. 100% snow. Last runs starting with 0Z 2/17 run: 1.9”, 0.6”, 2.1”, 1.5”, 1.4”, 2.2”, 0.9”. So, UK has been drier than most models since the 0Z 2/17 run. Before that, UK was among the snowier models with 5.5” on 12Z 2/16 run. These are Pivotal 10:1 snow amounts. In these cases they were usable because the precip has been almost all snow since the 12Z 2/16 run.

No, I know:

Very much fwiw, I think Barney hacked the 360 hour 12Z EPS and GEFS:

If the thunderstorms do exist, wouId high resolution be more accurate?

3km vs 12km 18Z WB NAM Kuchera: RDU 4.0” on both 3 km: 12 km:

The 18Z 12km NAM has the low further offshore than the 12Z.

Thanks. However, this map is from the GEFS rather than the GFS. You mentioned the GFS and it is colder. You had said: “12z gfs looks like nam-12km as well with 850s up in northern wake”

Do you have a 12Z GFS 850 mb map showing this? I’d like to see it. At 3 hour intervals (based on cross checking Pivotal), this TT GFS 850 map (hour 30) is the warmest at Wake and 0C is almost as far S as the S Wake border leaving RDU at -1C:

Today’s preliminary CPC PNA of +1.39 is the highest daily CPC PNA of this winter. And it will be rising further with a target near +1.75 ~Feb 21st. That would be the highest CPC PNA on any winter day since 12/7/2020! Per GEFS, I’m currently projecting a Feb CPC PNA of ~+1.60. That along with the +1.70 of Dec and +1.05 of Jan would give a DJF averaged CPC PNA of +1.45. The current highest DJF averaged CPC PNA (back to 1950-1) are the +1.43 of 2015-6 and the +1.41 of 1976-7, both El Niños. So, 2024-5 still has a shot at having the strongest DJF averaged CPC PNA on record (back to 1950-1). It will obliterate the current highest La Niña CPC PNA of +0.89 (2000-01). Note that I was careful to always call this the “CPC PNA” as opposed to just “PNA” due to Chuck and others questioning the CPC calculations of the CPC PNA in parts of late Jan and early Feb.