GaWx

I agree 100% if someone is doing what you’re doing. But just to make sure it’s clear, JB has only 50% of his 10 winter weights within 1991+ and he has 1950-1 as a 30% weight.

Fwiw today from JB: Warm October, Warm Winter. Yes and No I received an email last night saying alot of people on X are starting to hammer our winter idea because of the warm October. And they have good reason too, because warm Octobers centered in the Northeast tend to be warm winters. Some of the worst winters I can remember are those warm, dry Octobers However there is a problem when we look at the analogs. When warm Octobers are centered in the heartland and the back part of the hurricane season ( more than 50% of ace after Sept 15) we get a very different story. What I did here with this analog is pick out the warmest Octobers since 1950 and double weighted the late season ACE ones: So what do the winters look like? Here’s my main problem with his maps. He’s using 1991-2020 for climo, which makes his winter analog composite look significantly colder than if earlier climo were used. Keep in mind that half of his years are 1989 and earlier. What’s the most appropriate climo to use from that site? There’s no easy answer but something earlier than 1991-2020 would obviously be more appropriate. Octobers are still warm no matter what climo is chosen (different degrees of warmth depending on climo that’s chosen). If I use 1951-2010, I get this: That actually shows very slightly mild or essentially NN. But perhaps that’s too far back although he does have 3 of his 10 weights as 1950-1. What about if I use 1971-2000? It’s also very slightly mild/NN in the NE US: The point is that he used too warm climo, which made his winter analog average too cold.

Regarding major impacts to crops, it’s actually been closer to the opposite with larger crops in many areas, including the US, due partially to: -longer growing seasons due to GW -ability to have decent crops further N due to GW -increased CO2 itself, due to “fertilization effect”, leads to larger crops I’ve posted about this earlier ITT. So, who’s to say that CC will ever lead to shortages of food? It may continue to be a net positive for that for all anyone knows. However, this isn’t consistent with the message about CC being all bad. Thus, it’s naturally going to be deemphasized so as to avoid a mixed message. Make no mistake that CC has its very bad impacts like sea level rise, more flash flooding events, increased frequency of intense hurricanes, increased AC costs, and increased heat related deaths. But there are some good sides, too, like larger avg crop sizes (at least so far), decreased heating costs, and decreased cold related deaths.

It would almost certainly be a miss of the Conus if it were to be a TC E of 55W per history. There hasn’t been on record even one TC existing E of 55W after October 4th that made it all of the way to the Conus! (I’ve checked all of the years.) That doesn’t mean it’s impossible and that it won’t eventually happen. But that does mean the chance is tiny. OTOH, it is were to be very slow to develop and wait, say, til near the Lesser Antilles or further W, then there would no longer be the near certainty of a Conus miss. It might then still be a likelihood but not a near certainty looking from this far out.

Chris, Who’s to say that the next 9 seasons won’t jump back somewhat given that 2016-7 through 2024-5 was the lightest 9 year avg on record? Consider this: 1948-9 through 1956-7 averaged only 10.9”, which at the time was the lightest 9 season avg on record and was much lower than the 17.6” of the prior 9 season avg: Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.4 1.8 4.4 1.4 1.9 0.0 T T 10.9 1948-1949 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 4.4 7.4 4.0 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8 1949-1950 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.3 T 3.1 T 0.0 0.0 3.4 1950-1951 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 3.8 0.8 3.0 1.0 0.0 T 0.0 10.2 1951-1952 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 4.8 1.6 T 3.8 T 0.0 T 10.2 1952-1953 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.0 1.3 0.2 3.1 T 0.0 T 8.3 1953-1954 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.7 T 11.3 T T T 0.0 0.0 18.0 1954-1955 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.1 2.3 4.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 1955-1956 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.5 4.5 T 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 1956-1957 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 10.1 1.6 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.2 The subsequent 9 seasons jumped way up to 25.0”, one of their heaviest 9 season stretches: Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 5.1 6.8 7.9 4.9 0.0 T 0.0 25.0 1957-1958 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 12.0 0.3 17.2 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.4 1958-1959 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.9 4.0 T T T 0.0 0.0 4.9 1959-1960 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T T 7.2 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3 1960-1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 8.7 13.6 18.0 T T 0.0 0.0 40.3 1961-1962 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.2 2.0 6.5 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 1962-1963 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.2 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.0 T 0.0 21.4 1963-1964 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.4 8.9 11.7 6.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 33.6 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 9.1 1.9 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1 1965-1966 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.3 6.9 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.4 ————— Then 1968-9 through 1976-7 attained a new 9 season record low of 10.5”: Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 2.7 3.0 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.5 1968-1969 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.2 2.2 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 1969-1970 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.8 3.6 3.6 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 5.2 4.8 0.3 1.4 T 0.0 0.0 11.7 1971-1972 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.3 14.4 T 0.6 0.0 0.0 16.8 1972-1973 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.0 T 0.1 T T 0.0 0.0 0.1 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 1.5 4.2 T T 0.0 0.0 16.7 1974-1975 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.1 6.6 5.8 0.3 T 0.0 0.0 12.8 1975-1976 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 1976-1977 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.6 9.7 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 11.1 That new record low had followed the prior 9 season avg of 26.5”: Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.2 6.8 8.4 4.2 0.0 T 0.0 26.5 1959-1960 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T T 7.2 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3 1960-1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 8.7 13.6 18.0 T T 0.0 0.0 40.3 1961-1962 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.2 2.0 6.5 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 1962-1963 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.2 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.0 T 0.0 21.4 1963-1964 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.4 8.9 11.7 6.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 33.6 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 9.1 1.9 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1 1965-1966 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.3 6.9 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.4 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.1 1.3 19.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.1 1967-1968 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 6.3 2.8 2.4 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.4 And the new record low 9 season 1968-9 through 1976-7 avg of 10.5” was followed by an 18.8” 9 season mean for 1977-8 through 1985-6: Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 6.7 8.7 1.8 T 0.0 0.0 18.8 1977-1978 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.3 3.8 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.7 1978-1979 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 T 4.0 30.6 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.7 1979-1980 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 T 8.6 5.1 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.1 1980-1981 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 4.2 T T 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.7 15.3 5.3 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 22.5 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 T 21.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 27.6 1983-1984 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 T 6.5 T 1.8 T 0.0 0.0 8.6 1984-1985 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 10.0 T T T 0.0 0.0 10.3 1985-1986 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 12.9 T T 0.0 0.0 15.4 ————— So, in summary: 1939-40 through 1947-8: 17.6” 1948-9 through 1956-7: 10.9” 1957-8 through 1965-6: 25.0” 1959-60 through 1967-8: 26.5” 1968-9 through 1976-7: 10.5” 1977-8 through 1985-6: 18.8” 2007-8 through 2015-6: 15.9” 2016-7 through 2024-5: 7.8” 2025-6 through 2033-4: ??? Maybe 2025-6 through 2033-4 will jump back up a nice amount. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if it were to jump back up to ~12-15”. And then perhaps it would drop back down. Obviously nobody knows. Yes, it’s overall been headed down with the warming, which is intuitive. But I assume we can agree it’s nowhere near a straight plunge.

Regarding the MDR lemon: A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Jelsema ——————— I didn’t post it. But the 12Z UKMET had a TC form from this at 162 hours and it was already recurving/moving NW to 23.7N, 57.2W at 168. The new UKMET (0Z) forms it 18 hours earlier and it moves WNW instead of NW meaning it ends up much further S than the 12Z run had it at the end of the run (~150 miles NE of the Leewards): NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.7N 53.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2025 132 15.7N 53.2W 1009 40 0000UTC 09.10.2025 144 17.5N 56.5W 1009 39 1200UTC 09.10.2025 156 18.8N 59.3W 1009 34 0000UTC 10.10.2025 168 19.7N 61.4W 1008 31

This is hyperbole. Why? -DCA from 2000-01 through 2024-25 averaged 13”. Even if they were to have NO snow the next 5 winters, which of course is practically impossible since they’ve yet to have even one with 0”, they’d still average ~11” for 2001-30. -DCA averaged 10.6” 2010-11 through 2024-25. If they were to have no snow the next 15 winters (of course nothing even close to that will happen), they’d still average 5.3” for 2011-40. So, averaging <4” in Baltimore and even at DCA would be impossible not only in 2001-30 but even in 2011-40. Even for DCA to average <6” in 2011-40, they’d have to average <1.4” the next 15 winters. Only 4 of the last 141 winters (3%) had <1.4”. Yes, 3 of those have been since 1997-8, but that’s still only 3 of the last 28 or 11%. So, I see virtually no way for DCA to even get down to 6” for 2011-40. Even getting it down to 7” would require the next 15 years to average only 3.4”. That’s highly unlikely. But if that high unlikelihood were to somehow happen, we’re talking 7” at DCA for 2011-40 vs you saying 4” is possible.

I got just a T after sunrise yesterday. My total for Sept was a mere 1.04” vs 17.1” in August.

The ICON and UKMET were absolutely stellar in that neither model had even one run hitting the coast or even stalling at the coast. None ever got closer than 100 miles from the US. I made sure to post every UKMET with a TC as well as any Icon that nobody else posted. All of the UKMET runs 12Z of 9/23 through 0Z 9/28 run (except 0Z of 9/24, which had no TC) in textual form can be seen ITT. The Icons going back to 12Z on 9/24 are still on Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ ICON: The only Icon that I don’t know with 100% certainty is the 18Z of 9/24 because it goes out only 120 and is then moving very slowly NW toward C FL at ~79.0W (see 1st quoted post above). But even it is slowing down 100 miles offshore FL, the closest of any ICON to the US, and quite possibly about to make the hook OTS. UKMET: The other 4 quotes are of the furthest west UK runs. The two 9/25 runs move to 78.3W. Then the 9/26 12Z and 9/27 0Z move to 78.5W, the furthest W runs. All others’ furthest W were 77.1-77.4W. The closest to the US of any UKMET run was 115 miles E of Ft. Lauderdale (0Z 9/25 run). Furthest W of each UKMET run: 9/23 12Z: 77.1W 9/24 0Z: no TC 9/24 12Z: 77.2W 9/25 0Z/12Z: 78.3W 9/26 0Z: 77.3W 9/26 12Z and 9/27 0Z: 78.5W 9/27 12Z: 77.3W 9/28 0Z: 77.4W Whereas the UK’s record on the tracks was the best of all models (even better than the Icon), it was the latest on first having it as an actual TC (12Z 9/23) and also it didn’t have it on the 0Z 9/24. So, it was too genesis shy very early on, which is not uncommon with it. That’s why I pay extra attention when the UKMET first has a TC. Aside: The UKMET (#1) and ICON (#2) were also by far the best with Ian (‘22). ———— Honorable mention for JMA, which had only one run hit the US (NC). But like the UKMET, it was a bit shy early on in showing a TC. Despite its pretty poor record on the track along with Euro and CMC, an honorable mention is due for the GFS for showing Imelda as far back as one 9/19 run, way earlier than any other model, even though it lost it for a couple of days after that run. * Imelda’s actual furthest W was 77.3W. @WxWatcher007

Check this out. It turns out that Humberto and Imelda are the two closest Atlantic hurricanes on record (at 467 miles) other than a highly unreliable two unnamed hurricanes in 1853 (428 miles apart). Next closest of reliable years was Easy and Fox in 1951 (497 miles)!

I don’t have the answer though it may not. But regardless, I just find it absolutely fascinating that it has and will continue to be dominated by the “wrong” way for 6 weeks. I can’t find any longer than about 1/2 month like this over the last 50 years in Jul-Dec. (I haven’t checked Jan-June.) What I’ve love to know is what unique set of factors is allowing this to happen?

The unptecedented for the 2nd half of the year (since MJO records started in 1974) very lengthy clockwise dominated track continues with still no end yet in sight. It started Sept 1st and is projected to continue at least through Oct 12th, which would mean 6 weeks long! GEFS: clockwise at least through Oct 14th EPS: clockwise at least through Oct 12th @snowman19Has Roundy said anything about this?

Favorable ACE looks to continue through the foreseeable future: (note that favorable phase 2 just produced Humberto and Imelda) GEFS: going backwards through 2/1/8 EPS: going backwards through 2/1/8

Based on RONI, 2024-5 was a moderate La Niña: ASO 2024 -0.75 SON 2024 -0.81 OND 2024 -0.92 NDJ 2024 -1.07 DJF 2025 -1.12 JFM 2025 -0.89 FMA 2025 -0.67 Related to this, the Australian BoM has switched from ONI to RONI for its official model forecasts: says we’re already in a weak La Niña though it will weaken starting in Nov:

And this general idea of a big ACE comeback has been forecasted for several weeks by the Euro Weeklies. The EW after an upcoming break once Humberto and Imelda dissipate continue to forecast ACE to pick up again as we get to mid and even moreso as we approach late month.

BULLETIN Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025 ...IMELDA BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 76.9W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES @WxWatcher007

JB has been pushing the idea of warm Oct/cold Dec. @snowman19i know you’re shocked lol.

I got ~0.05” last night. That gets me to 0.95” for MTD. There is a small band moving SW from S SC that may give me a little more soon. *Edit 9/30 9:05AM: That band yesterday afternoon gave me ~0.09”. Gives me 1.04” MTD. A few showers are in the area this morning (9/30), but amounts should be very light.

The SE US dodged a potentially very deadly bullet. Whew!

The Gulf looks somewhat active (more active than most of the season so far) overall on the 12Z models so far through 192 (Icon, GFS, CMC). However, the UKMET, which goes out only 168, did drop the Gulf TC per its textual output that it had on its prior 2 runs.

The 2025 ACE is now up to ~80, or near the 1951-2024 avg with it rising rapidly. I project it to reach ~88 as of the end of Sept, which compares to 94 for 1991-2020 and ~81.5 for 1951-2024. So, essentially 2025 will go in the books as NN through Sept. Humberto and Imelda should get 2025 to ~95 in early Oct. (near normal for then per 1991-2020). As of 9/30, 2025 will exceed 2024 and 2022 by 9-10 and be only ~2 under 2018. The 88 would move 2025 ahead of 1971 and 1981, which would then move 2025 up to 30th highest of the last 75 years. This chart’s avg. is based on 1951-2024, which is lower than 1991-2020. That’s why 2025 already hit the average line:

I‘m not sure exactly what you’re asking. But I do know that both the Icon and the UKMET on every single run going back to when they first had this on their runs 5+ days ago had this after moving it N to NNW hook sharply right OTS. They were absolutely stellar and were far better than any other non-JMA models with their essentially perfect records. I have the JMA as a clear 3rd as only its 12Z 9/23 run hit NC. All others hooked sharply right and OTS although two of them (12Z 9/25 and 12Z 9/26) combined with Humberto to make one storm. All of this is still on Tropical Tidbits for those who are interested. They have runs back a full week. Check them out before it’s too late! Edit: The 18Z 9/24 Icon, which goes out only 120 hours, didn’t go out far enough to be able to tell for sure. It had Imelda further N than most other runs and she was getting pretty close to FL when the run ended. But she was moving very slowly and could have easily hooked right had the run gone out further as that’s about the time the right hook would have started.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025 ...IMELDA CONTINUES NORTHWARD AND A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 77.0W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 800 AM AST Mon Sep 29 2025 ...HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF FOR BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THIS WEEK... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 67.3W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

A notable number of 6Z EPS members at 144 (~1/3) have a surface low in the Gulf (mainly northern portion) from something: