GaWx

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93): Recent satellite wind data, in combination with surface and radar observations, indicate the broad area of low pressure located over the far northern portion of the Gulf remains quite disorganized. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced well west of the broad center. While some additional development of this system remains possible over the next 12-24 hours, its current structure suggests its chances of developing into a tropical depression before it reaches the Louisiana coast later today are decreasing. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93): Surface and radar observations indicate that a westward-moving broad area of low pressure continues to be located near the coast of the western part of the Florida Panhandle. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and located south to southwest of the center. This system is forecast to continue moving westward across the northern portion of the Gulf tonight, and is expected to reach the Louisiana coast by Thursday. If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or so before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida tonight and continuing for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Papin

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93): Surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure continues to move westward across the Florida Panhandle and is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity mainly south of its center. This system is forecast to continue moving westward, and could emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to north-central portion of the Gulf, reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thursday. If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could still form over the next couple of days before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through through today. Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast beginning late today and continuing through Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

A pretty fast moving small shower has moved NW from offshore to here on the NE side of Invest 93L. There may be more to come within the next couple of hours. Edit: more quick showers came through hre in the early AM of 7/16, but I got nothing more than a few hundredths of an inch.

Today had a very tropical feel and look here thanks to the deep onshore flow to the north of Invest 93L coming in from several hundreds of miles offshore. How deep? It was at least to way up at 200 mb, which is near 40,000 feet! And this is expected to continue for much of the rest of this week. It is fairly rare that this far north experiences that deep of a tropical flow for that long of an uninterrupted period. This deep tropical flow: -gave us a constant pleasant ESE 10-15 mph breeze with gusts to over 20 -wind coming off the ocean kept the highs in the BN upper 80s but also kept dewpoints in the mid 70s -the skies much of the day had a tropical paradise look of towering cumulus coming off of the ocean mixed with deep blue -isolated showers came off of the ocean moving at a brisk pace and tended to diminish as they went more inland (I had no rainfall today)

It’s had its really good moments for sure.

Perhaps the strong ICON runs from yesterday and the day before were because they were latching into the further SSW mid level circ.

12Z ICON is coming in even a little weaker than the 6Z and possibly slightly further north. It has essentially no LLC of significance.

Yesterday (7/14) was the first day in 6 without measurable rainfall at my location.

I recently did an analysis that showed that mid July season to date ACE has little predictive value for remainder of season ACE. Any correlation of season to date ACE for around this time of the season to ACE remaining in the season is minimal. So, it currently being lower than the normal low average ACE to date implies neither low, near average, nor high ACE to come the rest of the season. I’d say the same thing if ACE were currently high like it was in 2024. In other words, it essentially doesn’t tell us much of anything one way or the other.

6Z models, including formerly bullish ICON, rather unimpressive though UKMET at 1009 mb is a bit stronger than 0Z’s 1013 though nothing like the 18Z’s 1004 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93): Satellite and radar data indicate that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low pressure located just offshore of the east coast of Florida remains disorganized. This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week. Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci

0Z Euro: pulled back slightly from the somewhat more bullish 18Z but still fairly similar to it

^Followup on UKMET: -12Z had no TC/lowest SLP 1010 mb -18Z had a TC/lowest SLP 1004 mb -0Z is back to no TC/lowest SLP 1013 mb

The 18Z UKMET, which shows a 1004 TC at hour 66 at the tip of the SE LA boot (see below), is 6 mb stronger than the 12Z UKMET’s 1010 mb at hour 72. The 12Z run was too weak to be classified as a TC.

As thread starter, you can edit the title as often as you wish. Just go to the first post here, click on the “…” and then choose “edit”.

Recon is scheduled for tomorrow I believe.

My location in SAV, GA, had ~3” of sleet/snow/ZR Jan 21-22, 2025. Easily >2” of it was sleet at my location. That’s way more sleet than any other winter storm on record! Official records go back >150 years. The official record heaviest sleet was <1”. The liquid equivalent/melted precip at my location was ~1.15”! The last time that much liquid equiv of wintry precip fell in this area from one storm was way back with the icestorm of Jan 25-6, 1922, with its 1.36”. Due to most of the precip falling as sleet and the followup cold, it took a whopping 5 days to completely melt! The prior SAV frozen precip of any amount (including trace amounts) was the Jan 3, 2018 storm. This storm, similar to Jan 21-22, 2025, also had purely wintry precip (mix of ZR, sleet, and snow) with ~0.75” of liquid equiv at my location. At the time, it was also the largest amount of LE as well as heaviest ZR from one storm here since the Jan 25-6 storm of 1922! It took 4 days to melt due to most of the precip falling with temps in the mid to upper 20s and followup cold. The week Jan 1-7, 2018, was the coldest 7 day period in a number of decades! The 7 years of not even a T of wintry precip between the big 2018 and 2025 winter storms was the longest interval of no wintry precip in the SAV area at least back to the 1880s!

A new small cell literally just popped up here just before 5PM. No thunder yet, but raining pretty heavily. 5th afternoon in a row with rain! Edit 5:50 PM: That lasted ~25 minutes and there never was thunder. Now a 2nd cell with some heavy rain is coming in on the same track moving in an unusual direction, SSE. Hoping today’s totals don’t get too high because otherwise there’d be trouble here. Edit on 7/14: Yesterday (7/13) I ended up with ~0.75”, which brings the 5 day total for 7/9-13 up to a whopping 6.35” and MTD up to 7.25”!

I’m doing an AmericanWx ‘25 Open Championship contest in the PGA Tour thread of the Sports section in case anyone is interested. Several from here often participate in these:

Thanks Don. But as 30 year “normals” also rise, shouldn’t the cold anomaly coverage in cold shots at least in theory be as expansive as before?

The 12Z Icon has a cat 2-3 (968 mb) hitting near the LA/TX border Fri night after battering much of the LA coast on Thu-Fri fwiw. Edit: Icon still mainly on its own of 12Z global operationals. CMC does have a weak low further N near the Gulf coast.

Here’s the latest GLAAM forecast: Ninoish

The ICON has at least been hinting at this since the Wednesday (7/9) runs whereas the other recent operationals have not had much, if anything. Ensemble support is only light. If this does occur, it would be an easy win for the Icon.

Hey Chesco, Maybe so. That was a disaster waiting to happen even without CC. We’ll never know for sure about the possible influence of CC on this terrible incident as well as on many other specific incidents. But CC/GW has meant ~ a 7% increase in moisture held in the air per degree C increase. So, CC does make these incidents of very heavy rains within a fairly short period more frequent overall worldwide than before. Tropical systems, themselves, have on average gotten slightly wetter. Another thing CC has apparently caused is a slight slowdown of average steering winds due to a lowered contrast of the temperature gradient between the tropics and Arctic. Thus, the slightly slower avg movement of slightly wetter tropical systems means more frequent extreme rainfall events from tropical systems.