GaWx

Today’s Euro Weeklies release fwiw is more active, especially in the S Gulf to NW Caribbean and including S and C FL, and is suggesting that a well above normal 50+ Oct-Nov ACE is a realistic possibility. I’ll continue to follow the EW trends.

BULLETIN Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025 ...GABRIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 61.7W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025 We are fortunate to have three NOAA aircraft (two P3's and one G-IV) which are conducting research missions into Gabrielle this afternoon. The data they have provided has been valuable, showing the storm has become better aligned in the low to mid-levels compared to this morning, though the eyewall structure has been coming and going due to occasional dry air mixing out near the cyclone's core. The highest 750 mb flight-level winds were up to 70 kt, which using a typical 0.85 reduction supports 60 kt. However, the Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) on board one of the NOAA-P3 aircraft showed a swath of 0.5 km winds up to 79 kt in the eastern semicircle at 1741 UTC. Using a more conservative 0.80 reduction factor for this level supports an intensity of 65 kt, and Gabrielle has become a hurricane. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 28.5N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 29.7N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 31.2N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 32.7N 60.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 35.2N 53.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 37.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 41.5N 25.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Yeah, the only 12Z op with this as a TC is the GFS though a few of its ensembles also have a TC (more noisy than earlier runs). Thus, I’m taking the GFS with a huge grain at least as of now.

I continue to fear what late seasons are capable of producing based especially on the recent past. Having 3 of the 7 most active Oct-Dec periods ACEwise (70+) during just the last 9 seasons is not comforting at all. Moreover, 3 of the last 6 (50%) La Niña seasons (2024 per RONI counts as La Niña) were in these top 7! The one somewhat comforting thing, however, is the relative slowness of 2025 so far and how that affects the chances for a highly active Oct-Dec. There appears to be some correlation between how active a season is prior to Oct and how active is a season Oct-Dec, which means that having a relatively slow season through Sep does appear to reduce the chance for a very active Oct-Dec (50+ ACE) somewhat vs that chance when pre-Oct isn’t slow: Seasons with 50+ ACE during Oct-Dec: Year/pre-Oct ACE/Oct+ ACE 2024: 78/84 2020: 106/75 2016: 59/80 2005: 171/75 1969: 93/57 1963: 49/63 1961: 134/55 1950: 157/54 1932: 87/82 1894: 59/76 1893: 159/73 1887: 123/59 1878: 84/97 Per this list based on each era’s normal ACE, the pre-Oct ACE for these 13 very active Oct-Dec was as follows: - 6 MA normal (2005, 1961, 1950, 1893, 1887, 1878) - 3 AN (2020, 1969, 1932) - 1 NN (1894) - 3 BN (2024, 2016, 1963) So, 50+ Oct-Dec years have been heavily biased toward pre-Octs that were active. Where is 2025 headed for pre-Oct? Through Gabrielle, the prog is for ~~55. Then there’s the current MDR orange. The consensus has this as TS Humberto by 9/26-7 and a H soon after. That would have a realistic potential of 10-15 ACE 9/26-30. So, that would get total 2025 pre-Oct ACE to as much as ~65-70. That compares to 94 for the 1991-2020 pre-Oct avg, which means 2025 pre-Oct will end up solidly BN just about regardless of what Gabrielle and Humberto do. What does this tell me? With 2025 almost definitely headed for BN pre-Oct, the chance for a 50+ Oct-Dec is <50%. However, 2024, 2016, and 1963 as well as 3 of the most active 7 Oct-Dec on record having occurred just within the last 6 La Niña seasons also say don’t bet the farm on <50 for Oct-Dec at least as of yet.

I continue to fear what late seasons are capable of producing based especially on the recent past. Having 3 of the 7 most active Oct-Dec periods ACEwise (70+) during just the last 9 seasons is not comforting at all. Moreover, 3 of the last 6 (50%) La Niña seasons (2024 per RONI counts as La Niña) were in these top 7! The one somewhat comforting thing, however, is the relative slowness of 2025 so far and how that affects the chances for a highly active Oct-Dec. There appears to be some correlation between how active a season is prior to Oct and how active is a season Oct-Dec, which means that having a relatively slow season through Sep does appear to reduce the chance for a very active Oct-Dec (50+ ACE) somewhat vs that chance when pre-Oct isn’t slow: Seasons with 50+ ACE during Oct-Dec: Year/pre-Oct ACE/Oct+ ACE 2024: 78/84 2020: 106/75 2016: 59/80 2005: 171/75 1969: 93/57 1963: 49/63 1961: 134/55 1950: 157/54 1932: 87/82 1894: 59/76 1893: 159/73 1887: 123/59 1878: 84/97 Per this list based on each era’s normal ACE, the pre-Oct ACE for these 13 very active Oct-Dec was as follows: - 6 MA normal (2005, 1961, 1950, 1893, 1887, 1878) - 3 AN (2020, 1969, 1932) - 1 NN (1894) - 3 BN (2024, 2016, 1963) So, 50+ Oct-Dec years have been heavily biased toward pre-Octs that were active. Where is 2025 headed for pre-Oct? Through Gabrielle, the prog is for ~~55. Then there’s the current MDR orange. The consensus has this as TS Humberto by 9/26-7 and a H soon after. That would have a realistic potential of 10-15 ACE 9/26-30. So, that would get total 2025 pre-Oct ACE to as much as ~65-70. That compares to 94 for the 1991-2020 pre-Oct avg, which means 2025 pre-Oct will end up solidly BN just about regardless of what Gabrielle and Humberto do. What does this tell me? With 2025 almost definitely headed for BN pre-Oct, the chance for a 50+ Oct-Dec is <50%. However, 2024, 2016, and 1963 as well as 3 of the most active 7 Oct-Dec on record having occurred just within the last 6 La Niña seasons also say don’t bet the farm on <50 for Oct-Dec at least as of yet.

What do you and others think about the Nov 1950-March 1951 weak La Ninaish ENSO before warming up late as an analogue for 2025-6? A well-known met. got on that train yesterday due to an anticipated active late tropical season having the potential to be similar to Oct of 1950 based on precip anomaly progs by the longer term Euro. This met. talked about the severe effects on the NE US caused by the 11/25/1950 superstorm.

This is what someone said: According to the TCPOD the NOAA planes (all three of them, the gulfstream is out too) are doing a research mission, apparently involving drones they're dropping in. The AF are on a normal fix mission, IDK the exact motivation. I guess in case of any effects to bermuda? Or it could just be practice/nothing else to do.

000 WTNT62 KNHC 201753 TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 200 PM AST Sat Sep 20 2025 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT GABRIELLE IS FARTHER EAST AND A LITTLE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data show that the center of Gabrielle is located about 30 miles farther east than indicated in the previous advisory. The maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h). The next full advisory will be issued at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC). SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 58.7W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven

Regarding TCs that hit Conus, the latest TCG date on record E of 50W is Sep 25 (1893).

Although the chances are now pretty low, we still don’t know for sure that ACE won’t get to near the 30 yr 122 avg especially based on 2024, 2020, 2016, and 2005, but also on 1894, 1893, and 1878. However, all of these very active Oct+ years were more active through Sept though 2016 and 1894 not by that much.

Good. The lack of casualties, misery, and destruction so far is a great thing! We’ve had enough of this crap. But unfortunately Oct has produced really bad storms, especially in recent years. So, the jury is still far from coming back with a full verdict for the season. Although the chances are now pretty low, we still don’t know for sure that ACE won’t get to near the 30 yr 122 avg especially based on 2024, 2020, 2016, and 2005, but also on 1894, 1893, and 1878. However, all of these very active Oct+ years were more active through Sept though 2016 and 1894 not that much.

Although 2014 was about as slow as 2025 on this date (only 3 fewer ACE), it didn’t get any more ACE after today til Oct 11th. So, due to Gabrielle, 2025 should be well ahead of 2014 by mid to late next week. At this point, 2022 actually had 4 fewer ACE than 2025. However, Fiona was just becoming a MH and about to add a lot of ACE along with Ian becoming an H a week from now. So, 2025 is progged to soon fall well behind 2022. Regardless, 2022 ended with only 94 meaning 2025 could conceivably approach that if Gabrielle were to get strong along with an active October. Although 2015 on this date had 2 more NS than 2025, it actually had 14 fewer ACE and didn’t reach the current 2025 level of ACE til early Oct. It finished with only 63. So, if Gabrielle were to get strong, 2025 would have a good shot at exceeding the entire 2015 with additional significant activity by early Oct.

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.09.2025 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 53.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 19.09.2025 0 21.2N 53.0W 1007 31 1200UTC 19.09.2025 12 22.0N 55.0W 1008 32 0000UTC 20.09.2025 24 23.6N 57.0W 1009 32 1200UTC 20.09.2025 36 24.7N 58.8W 1009 32 0000UTC 21.09.2025 48 26.5N 60.2W 1010 34 1200UTC 21.09.2025 60 28.2N 60.8W 1009 41 0000UTC 22.09.2025 72 30.2N 61.7W 1006 46 1200UTC 22.09.2025 84 33.0N 61.7W 1002 44 0000UTC 23.09.2025 96 35.8N 59.1W 996 45 1200UTC 23.09.2025 108 38.1N 54.2W 985 51 0000UTC 24.09.2025 120 39.9N 47.4W 977 61 1200UTC 24.09.2025 132 41.4N 39.6W 971 67 0000UTC 25.09.2025 144 42.7N 32.6W 974 53 1200UTC 25.09.2025 156 44.9N 26.7W 978 46 0000UTC 26.09.2025 168 48.3N 21.8W 980 41

I have to admit that it would be funny to see the NE Pacific cool back more than the W Pac and see how weenie forecasters would then spin it. Of course @snowman19would have a blast!

He was slow this time, but Bastardi finally this morning had his expected say about Gabrielle’s current anemic look vs the NC/VA no name system: What a Joke. Stratocu Swirl Gabrielle Then Joe compares satellite images of the two: Gabrielle: now a naked swirl but still being called a TS Offshore NC/VA nontropical low: was never tropical and thus was never a TS but unlike Gabrielle now it did have some nearby convection/tropical characteristics at this point: What JB especially doesn’t like is the inconsistency more than whether or not the offshore NC/VA nontropical low should have been named (he was wishy-washy on that). He thinks Gabrielle should be downgraded though I have to admit it still has a very tight tropical swirl unlike no-name.

For all practical purposes, it’s already weak La Niña: The RONI equivalent daily is likely already well down into weak Niña range (subtract at least ~0.25C from the raw 3.4 SST anomaly based on the slowly reducing but still persistent RONI minus ONI) Below are some straight 3.4 anomalies (caution that CDAS has typically been too cold but sometimes CRW is slightly too warm): based on these four, alone, I’d think the raw daily anomaly is likely ~-0.4 to -0.5 meaning ~-0.7 for RONI equivalent: Buoys:

Was this one posted before? I get them all mixed up with their typically fictitious southern battle zones and NE blizzard watches and huge snowstorms and N Plains polar vortices and amazingly enough always warm/dry in the W where E US wx weenies conveniently don’t care: https://www.powder.com/news/east-coast-blizzard-watch-winter *Edit: I just noticed that this is the one posted yesterday that I even commented on lol. I told you guys I get these mixed up and this is proof!

But isn’t a KU a pretty random event that can happen in just about any winter if things happen to line up? In other words, isn’t there at least some KU potential every winter (I realize the probabilities vary each winter) because it’s random?

12Z summary of main ops-Icon H 250 miles E/SE of Bermuda 9/22-3-GFS another relatively weak run with a TS over Bermuda but takes 10 days (9/27)!-CMC H 150 miles E/SE of Bermuda 9/22-Euro H 200 miles E/SE of Bermuda 9/22-JMA out to only 72 as a TD recurving-UKMET: TS ~150 miles E of Bermuda 9/22:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 20.0N 50.9WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 18.09.2025 24 20.0N 50.9W 1009 350000UTC 19.09.2025 36 20.8N 53.2W 1009 311200UTC 19.09.2025 48 21.3N 55.3W 1010 290000UTC 20.09.2025 60 22.4N 58.1W 1011 301200UTC 20.09.2025 72 23.6N 59.5W 1011 270000UTC 21.09.2025 84 25.1N 61.1W 1011 291200UTC 21.09.2025 96 26.9N 61.2W 1011 330000UTC 22.09.2025 108 29.3N 62.0W 1008 431200UTC 22.09.2025 120 31.2N 62.2W 1007 470000UTC 23.09.2025 132 33.5N 61.9W 1005 411200UTC 23.09.2025 144 36.5N 58.5W 1003 420000UTC 24.09.2025 156 39.5N 52.7W 994 431200UTC 24.09.2025 168 42.3N 44.3W 982 52

Followup: JB was surprisingly quiet. All he said was this: “Now, the red-hatched area has been designated Tropical Depression 7, posing a threat to Bermuda but not the U.S.” But then he immediately mentioned a possible unexpected “side-show Bob” to form off the SE US.

I love the “battle-zone” that so many forecasters love to put much of the SE US in every winter lol.

Thanks. Indeed, the chances of exceeding 100 total continue to decline. For reference, the 1991-2020 average from now to the end is 51: -22 rest of Sept -22 during Oct -6 during Nov -1 during Dec So, to reach 100, 2025 would need to be ~10 above the 1991-2020 avg, a tall but not near impossible order. But it being a weak La Nina and recent seasons being pretty heavily backloaded help those chances to an extent. What Gabrielle does or doesn’t do will be a pretty significant part of the mix.

I bet Bastardi will have a thing or two to say about this upgrade lol.

Check this out folks: 0Z GFS is much weaker with strongest at 1005 mb/barely a TS followed by it weakening and then dissipating over open water of the SW Atlantic into nothing! The prior 13 runs all had hurricanes, usually MH! What the? ————— 0Z UKMET: passes just E of Bermuda (similar to 0Z Euro): TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 43.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 17.09.2025 0 14.4N 43.9W 1010 28 1200UTC 17.09.2025 12 16.9N 45.4W 1009 33 0000UTC 18.09.2025 24 19.5N 48.0W 1009 41 1200UTC 18.09.2025 36 20.7N 50.6W 1008 37 0000UTC 19.09.2025 48 21.3N 53.3W 1008 31 1200UTC 19.09.2025 60 21.7N 55.6W 1009 27 0000UTC 20.09.2025 72 22.0N 57.6W 1010 26 1200UTC 20.09.2025 84 23.3N 59.0W 1010 30 0000UTC 21.09.2025 96 24.8N 60.2W 1010 29 1200UTC 21.09.2025 108 26.2N 60.8W 1010 32 0000UTC 22.09.2025 120 27.5N 61.9W 1009 37 1200UTC 22.09.2025 132 29.2N 63.5W 1010 37 0000UTC 23.09.2025 144 31.1N 63.5W 1010 34 1200UTC 23.09.2025 156 33.1N 62.8W 1010 33 0000UTC 24.09.2025 168 34.0N 59.7W 1009 30

AAM says solid La Niña like for next month: @snowman19