GaWx

La Nina’s are strange in that although Febs average (I believe) the warmest anomalies of DJF, sometimes the Febs have had an intense cold plunge.

1933-4, with the very cold Feb, was moderate La Niña. 1898-9 was cold neutral and had the historic Feb cold. Edit: Both gave rare winter storms here in SAV in mid Feb!

Highest I saw on my thermometer today was 98.7. It’s still 96.6. Highest at Hunter was hottest of the year so far with ~100 w/HI of ~110. Highest at KSAV was 97 with HI of ~107.

Consistent with your image, the OHC keeps plunging:

Thanks, Chuck. I have for quite awhile been very bullish for a RONI based La Niña, which I think is more telling than ONI. My latest prediction for ONI though is still at -0.4. Also, it will be interesting to see how low the MEI gets.

I earlier had forgotten to check Naples. They like Tampa before today also hadn’t on record reached 100. Their alltime highest on record (back to 1942) is 99, which they missed by just one degree today! But they tied their alltime record July hottest with their 98.

The new Euro Weeklies have a notable increase in forecasted activity for two weeks earlier than the post above addresses, Aug 4-10:

1. Thanks to a popup thunderstorm, FAY plunged from 100 and an HI of 114-5 at 1PM to 83 at 2PM! 2. Tampa hit 99 at 2PM. 99 ties the alltime record hit 6/26/2020 and 6/5/1985! RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2025 ..DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT TAMPA A NEW DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 99 DEGREES HAS BEEN SET AT TAMPA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE DAILY RECORD FOR JULY 27TH OF 97 DEGREES SET IN 1996. THIS ALSO BREAKS THE MONTHLY RECORD FOR JULY OF 98 DEGREES SET ON JULY 20, 1942 AND JULY 21, 1942. THIS RECORD HIGH OF 99 DEGREES ALSO TIES THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER SET IN TAMPA BACK ON JUNE 26, 2020 AND JUNE 5, 1985. RECORDS BEGAN IN TAMPA ON APRIL 1, 1890.

1. Fayetteville, NC, already hit 100 at 1PM! The HI was 114! 2. Tampa has on record never hit 100 with records back to 1890! Other than the Keys and St. Pete, all other major FL stations have hit 100 with most several times. Even Miami hit 100 in July of 1942. Edit for correction: I forgot to check Naples. Their alltime highest on record is 98, which they tied today. Tampa was 97 at 1PM today, a whopping 7 hotter than 24 hours earlier! Unlike yesterday at 1PM, winds today are from a hot inland NE direction. Skies are mostly sunny. They’ll have a chance to barely hit 100 though the forecast is for upper 90s. There’s a 597-8 dm H5 high centered over S GA.

It’s not natural for farmers to try to grow crops as large as possible wherever they live? Also, think of all of the lives saved worldwide with a larger supply of food from larger crops worldwide. Regarding the higher dewpoints resulting from the larger crops holding in the soil moisture, don’t forget that the higher dewpoints are negated by lower temps during the most dangerous time of the day than would otherwise be the case.

Hey Liberty, Don’t forget that Lakepaste is talking about global cooling since a year ago rather than for your area or even the US overall.

Hey Liberty, Why are larger crops in the Midwest a bad thing? I’ve never heard anyone say that before. Larger crops means more food for the world and also lower high temperatures there and probably somewhat downwind in summer.

“These oceanic heatwaves are not caused by man’s input into the atmosphere as Mr. Gore would like you to believe.” -Joe Bastardi in 7/26/25 Weather Bell free to everyone “Saturday Summary” video I just heard it. He still insists it’s due to undersea volcanic activity. Edit: Later in the same video he showed numbers indicating the planet is 1/4 of a degree C cooler this July vs last July. Is this true?

The global avg air and sea surface temps, dew points, and sea level are all at or near record highs. OTOH, I don’t know about “the droughts” being the worst. Actually, widespread droughts in the Midwest have notably lessened in frequency and severity over the last 30 years due to increased crop sizes likely thanks at least partially due to climate change. Avg dewpoints there in summer have increased significantly.

In contrast, 1935-6 was one of the coldest for the E 2/3 US as a whole of any since 1895-6:

Today’s Euro Weeklies maintained an active Aug 18-24 with ~145% of 2005-24. That translates to ~13 of ACE being progged vs base of ~9. Should that week have ~13, that would imply the likelihood of an H somewhere in the basin. Where does this run imply would be the most likely general location of the track of this H? All highly speculative obviously but fwiw it suggests track may be from at or just N of N Leewards NW to either near Bermuda or W of that between Bermuda and NC and then recurving to between Cape Cod and 1000 miles E of there aiming toward Newfoundland. Midpoint of highest density of tracks starts at 20N, 60W. Then track points NW to 30N, 70W. Then NNE to 40N, 65W. Highest at risk from this prog ~Bermuda:

Euro Weeklies ACE for August 18-24 up to 140% of 2005-24 avg. Edit: Also note the green box in ATL is now larger than even the WPAC green box:

OHC plunge continues:

Absolutely horrible forecast for my area:GAZ118-260500- INLAND CHATHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GARDEN CITY, POOLER, AND SAVANNAH 549 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY... ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... TONIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 112. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.SATURDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. SUNDAY SUNNY, HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 101. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 113. SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 106 EARLY IN THE EVENING. MONDAY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 115. MONDAY NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 105 EARLY IN THE EVENING. TUESDAY MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 115.

Currently, the equivalent NOAA version of the PDO based on recent relationship to WCS is likely not far from -4. The record low monthly NOAA PDO through June of 2025 is ~-3.8.

2025 through July 21st in N Hem had third lowest ACE for the date back to 1971 with it behind only 1977 and 1998.

Compared to the terrible 2023 near the FL Keys (red line), when there was a terrible record breaking longlasting (mid June to early Sept) coral bleaching, 2025 (black line) has been much tamer with barely any bleaching hours so far. It’s also been a good bit cooler than 2024. The reason 2023 SSTs were so hot there was a drought along with wall to wall sunshine to add to the background warming from GW:

The OHC steep cooling over the last couple of weeks continues:

Absolute brutality will be coming early next week from Mother Nature if this forecast for my area verifies well:SUNDAY SUNNY, HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110. SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 80. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 EARLY IN THE EVENING. MONDAY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 115. MONDAY NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 EARLY IN THE EVENING. TUESDAY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 115.

From JB today fwiw: he likes to look at Euro AI ensemble members (ever since that product became available earlier this summer) vs EPS/GEFS and he’s also considering EPS’ MJO forecast: this period is before the increasingly active week that yesterday’s Euro Weeklies showed Day 15 06 z AI ends like this with a trough in the Tennessee Valley. and a spray of cyclones suggesting an east coast impact threat AI VV patterns in the 10-15 are bullish for the tropics which would mean a stronger rotation into phases 8,1,2,3 more so than the euro ensemble