GaWx

What is the nearest major city to you?

This is a great example of different strokes for different folks. I prefer down here in S GA below normal temperatures every month of the year because warmth and humidity is so dominant for much of the year and is getting worse. Also, the cold down here is fairly tame compared to most other parts of the U.S. Moderate cold is very refreshing to me. Also, I tend to sweat very easily (more than most). I love walking but mainly do it inside on my treadmill when dewpoints are 55+. I’d rather be outside. My favorite temps for walking are 40s to 50s (with dewpoints 40s or lower). There is no right or wrong answer overall. It is all about preference. The following 50 second video is somewhat relevant though not completely because it is addressing morally right or wrong vs preference in regard to parenting:

You got me curious. So, I checked NYC data for 1”+ snowstorms during Apr 1-10 at NYC, JFK, or LGA. I found 24 storms: Date…Snow…Station…Concurrent ENSO…Subsequent ENSO 4/2/2018 5.5” NYC L E 4/5/2006 1.0” JFK L E 4/7/2003 5.6” LGA E N 4/9/2000 1.2” NYC L L 4/1/1997 1.5” JFK N E 4/9-10/1996 4.0” JFK L N 4/6/1982 9.6” NYC N E 4/6/1971 3.2” JFK L L 4/2/1965 1.2” NYC L E 4/4/1957 5.4” LGA N E 4/8/1956 6.4” LGA L N 4/5/1944 6.5” NYC N N 4/6-7/1938 6.4” NYC N L 4/1/1924 8.5” NYC E L 4/9/1917 6.4” NYC L E 4/8-9/1916 3.3” NYC N L 4/3-4/1915 10.2” NYC E N 4/9/1907 5.0” NYC N N 4/5/1898 2.5” NYC N N 4/6-7/1896 3.0” NYC N E 4/1-2/1887 2.0” NYC L E 4/4-5/1886 1.0” NYC E L 4/2/1871 2.0” NYC N N 4/4/1870 2.5” NYC L N ———————————— Analysis of these 24: -9 lead to El Niño -9 lead to neutral -6 lead to La Niña -Only 4 concurrent El Niño -10 concurrent with each of neutral and La Niña -Of 10 La Niña: 5 went to El Niño, 3 went to neutral, and 2 remained La Niña ———————————— Conclusion: -With 5 of 10 of these La Niñas leading to El Niño and 9 of the entire 24 leading to El Nino, the stats say that an early April NYC snowstorm isn’t strongly indicative of El Niño the following winter. -HOWEVER: Of the last 46 La Ninas, only 12 (26%) went to El Niño. (16 went to neutral and 18 remained La Niña). Of the 10 La Ninas with an early April NYC snowstorm, 5 (50% or ~twice the overall %) went to El Niño. That means that of the 36 La Ninas without a snowstorm, only 7 (19%) went to El Niño. So, perhaps having a La Niña snowstorm is indicative of a higher than normal chance for El Niño to follow La Niña.

- Euro Weeklies are mainly mild 3/10+. - Next 2 weeks average near to slightly below normal on 12Z ensemble consensus (ups and downs). Nothing dramatic.

Likely partially due to just having had 3 mild winters

And GEFS still had no signal for a major SSW as of yest:

KSAV got down to 31. Last freeze? I’m guessing there will be at least one more light freeze but we’ll see. Mar on average sees 1, but ~50% see none. Mean coldest is 33. Chance of a hard freeze is low. Winter’s typically over after 1st week in Mar. DJF headed to ~1F BN due to combo of strong ups and downs. Including today I count 36 of 84 days 10+ AN or BN. Last entire winter: only 20 of 91 days. 2022-3: 37 of 90. 2021-2: 24 of 90. 2020-1: 16 of 90. 2019-20: 31 of 91. 2018-9: 26 of 90. In summer we typically have 0 days 10+ AN or BN and is why I find winter much more interesting.

A change is on today’s Euro Weeklies as there are many members with a major SSW within Mar 9-14 (see below). This is the most bullish run this winter. If this occurs, this may mean a chilly April in much of the E US. This would jibe well with Joe D’Aleo’s research on its connection with +QBO/high solar: 12Z Euro 360 10 mb temp anomalies:

Well, this changed on today’s Euro Weeklies as there are many members with a major SSW within Mar 9-14 (see below). This is easily the most bullish run this winter. If this occurs, this may mean a chilly April in much of the E US. This would jibe well with Joe D’Aleo’s research on its connection with +QBO/high solar and Ray’s feeling there’d likely be one late this winter. @40/70 Benchmark @snowman19 Here’s the 12Z Euro op 360 10 mb temp anomalies:

As of 1 PM it is still only in the high 30s to low 40s throughout most of GA/SC/NC. In coastal GA it is still only in the upper 30s coast/offshore buoys and will struggle to reach only up into the mid to upper 40s. Average coastal highs are in the low 60s on Feb 21st. So, ~15 BN for the date and ~10 below mid Jan climo.

12Z GEFS has a pretty strong snow signal for NC in early March:

Today the preliminary CPC PNA is +1.78, which was well predicted by GEFS. This is the highest winter daily CPC PNA since 12/7/20 and highest in Feb since 2/15/2017.

He’s been talking about a “stratwarm” but he uses different criteria from 10 mb 60N mean wind reversal. There’s no forecasted reversal in sight (2 weeks). He showed the 6Z 2/20 Euro AI 240 hour map (as of 6Z on 3/2) “going out of its mind” with its 501 dm H5 ht over Bradford, PA, and compared it to the 3/13/1993 superstorm’s upper low of 503 dm over DC. He said that IF this Euro AI were to verify that there is going to be “record cold to open March in places”.

At 10AM it was still only in the upper 20s in the ATL area and only mid to high 30s GA coast. It’s a beautiful winter’s day with clear skies. Offshore buoys were only in the 36-38 range as of 9:50AM.

-KATL’s 19 low this morning was its coldest since Jan 22nd’s 14 and is the 3rd coldest of the winter. -KSAV’s 26 low was its first freeze (21st freeze of the season) and lowest since Jan 26th. It was a hard freeze that lasted 7 hours (2-9AM). KSVN’s (not as far inland) low was 29. -Even the entire coast of GA/SC/NC had a freeze this morning. Ft Pulaski got down to at least 31. -Much of N FL got down to freezing incl JAX’s 32. Gainesville got at least down to 33 though the winds may have prevented an official freeze. I won’t know til later.

Nino 3.4 anomalies have over the last ~4 weeks warmed up substantially (~0.8C) to the warmest since Nov:

I first heard them ~50 years ago (I think it was a song on one of the annual K-Tel greatest hits albums…remember those?) and they then became my favorite band in 1978 (around the time the great “Out of the Blue” album was out). They’ve remained that way for me since.

The Euro Weeklies reversed the cooling of yesterday for Mar 3-9 back to how they were on Tue’s run. Also, the subsequent weeks are all warmer than Mar 3-9 and overall mild for the rest of Mar into Apr. Yesterday’s run for Mar 3-9: Today’s run for Mar 3-9:

But during a storm this often has limited effects due to thick cloud cover keeping direct solar radiation limited. I’ve experienced several significant Atlanta snows in Mar and they stuck to everything easily, especially 1980 and 1993. The temperature during the event is crucial whatever time of year. How long it sticks around afterward is another story of course. Temperatures in March after a storm are obviously likely going to warm up to higher levels. But that’s beside the main point of sticking during a storm.

Over prior 105 years, Houston had more snow than Charlotte 4 times: 1931-2, 1948-9, 1989-90, and 2020-1. New Orleans over the last 76 years beat Charlotte in 2 years: 1963-4 and 1989-90. Mobile over the last 145 years beat Charlotte in 1963-4 and 1992-3. So, no winter on record prior to 2024-5 had less snow in Charlotte than all 3 of those cities. Thus 2024-5 has a chance to be the first winter on record like that. But it’s not over.

This winter has far exceeded my expectations. I was expecting a mild winter in the SE US. My expectations were so low that I was already looking ahead to potential in 2025-6 ITT! As a bonus, I got 3” of mainly sleet/snow from 1.33” of liquid equivalent on Jan 21-2 with >2” of that sleet that stayed on the ground in shady areas for 5 days! My area averages a mere 0.2” of snow/sleet with the vast majority getting nothing measurable and most not even getting a T. The last wintry precip of any kind before that was in Jan of 2018, another major winter storm.

On Feb 18th, Topeka, KS, had a high of only 4F. That is the lowest high for so late in the season with records going back to 1888. The coldest high after Feb 18th is 8, set on 3/2/2014. Concordia, KS, had a very similar situation.

Anyone from Atlanta area here? Radar shows an area of snow flurries moving SE. @dsaurto the south may get some of this. Also @suzook KATL even reported flurries at 9AM. Also, Marietta.

Followup: Yesterday’s official total at RDU was 2.3” on 0.21” of liquid equivalent.

For the record, today’s storm occurred with a strengthening strong +PNA, strong but rapidly weakening -AO, weakening weak -NAO, neutral rising EPO, and weakening moderate MJO phase 8. This combination of indices certainly favors cold in the SE US in Feb in general. Edit on 2/23/25: Now that the official graph was just updated for 2/19-20, I can see that the storm was actually during a weakening moderate MJO phase 7 rather than 8. I just made a new post about this correction further down.