GaWx

Since long term models are so accurate , I looked at them closely: -Euro Weeklies warmest yet through 3/24 -Recent CFS ensemble runs about coldest yet for 3/10-17 along with AN precip. -So, for 3/10-17, the Euro Weeklies have gone from cold a few days ago to NN now. That compares to recent CFS ens being BN to MBN. -So, huge disagreement mid March. Whereas I’d love for the CFS to be right, I’m for now going for the Euro to be closer based on how this winter has gone. But I’m going to watch the forecasted strongest major SSW of the season that’s predicted ~Mar 3 along with the PNA/NAO/AO possibly going +/-/- by 3/10 to hopefully cause the Weeklies to bust too warm in mid March. -Whereas Mar 3-9 is a high confidence period to average mild in the SE, Mar 10-17 is an extra low confidence period for whatever. And don’t forget that Mar 1 could have a bit of a wintry surprise for some of the CAD areas.

A full week before this, the 6Z and now the 12Z GFS is continuing for the 4th run in a row of at least the low threat for a wintry mix in a portion of the main CAD areas on Friday, Mar 1. Also, the 12Z ICON has cooled off and now has more of a wet wedge than prior runs with it as cold as upper 30s with rain in N GA on Fri. In addition, the 12Z CMC now has a cold rain on Fri (low 40s N GA) after previously having no precip and low 50s there. This is getting a bit more interesting with each run as it is getting more model support as we get closer (within 5 days). Could Mar 1 end up with the first wintry precip of the winter in especially some of the main CAD areas? That potential is looking to me to be somewhat less unlikely than when I first posted about it last evening. Edit: The vast majority of 12Z GEFS members (by far the most yet) have at least a little wintry mix in a portion of the CAD areas on Mar 1 fwiw. Edit #2: 12Z Euro still has for Mar 1 in the CAD areas the coldest with rain being upper 30s for the most part.

The newest GFS (0Z) is similar to the 18Z. The 0Z GEFS has 11 of 30 with some ZR or IP in a portion of the main CAD areas on March 1 compared with 8 on the 18Z, 2 on the 12Z, and 4 on the 6Z. The 0Z Euro again says mainly nada with coldest upper 30s with the rain for the most part, similar to 12Z. Also, 0Z ICON/UKMET/CMC have no wintry. So, the GFS remains on its own. If you bet on it, you’re taking a big risk. And even so, it is only marginal in a portion of the main CAD areas. But it for outside the mtns is the only wintry game in town even if only barely. So, I think it is worthy of mention.

A pretty strong CAD for the main CAD areas has been shown on some runs of the GFS, including the strongest version yet on the 18Z resulting in a very cold rain with only low to middle 30s during the day Fri 3/1. A few spots even have ZR or IP. The earlier 0Z GFS was similar though not quite as cold. However, the Euro and CMC as well as the 12Z and 6Z GFS don’t have anything like that for Fri. So, the 18Z GFS is very likely too cold with it being such an outlier and thus the worst scenario would probably be just a 40s cold rain.

2017, 20 I showed stats for NYC and especially Boston that suggest a modest correlation likely really does exist in the NE. Keep in mind that any correlation is likely not strong thus meaning a good number of exceptions and also that it is more for the NE US, especially Boston area, and not so much if any for the Mid Atlantic.

More or less. The lowlands from the upper GA coast to CHS (not downtown and nearby in SAV as it fortunately is 20-40 feet up on a bluff) were devastated by storm surge, especially many poor African Americans living on islands. It was the most destructive US natural disaster at the time. Very sad. “Unfortunately, not all communities received the warnings. Home to more than 30,000 African Americans who farmed, worked in rice fields, and plied nearby waters for fish, oysters, shrimp, and crabs, the Sea Islands were accessible only by boat. Their remote location allowed for the preservation of the unique Gullah and Geecheeculture, but limited communication with the mainland—a fact that would carry dire consequences for residents unprepared for the coming storm.” https://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/articles/history-archaeology/1893-sea-islands-hurricane/

The 1893 Sea Islands hurricane drowned ~2,000 in GA/SC and left ~30K homeless. https://hurricanescience.org/history/storms/pre1900s/1893/

Others in the top 13 from another era, when tropical activity was probably undercounted: #3: 1893, a devastating season for the US #4: 1926, a very bad season for FL/Gulf/Bermuda #8: 1950 FL hard hit #9: 1961 #11: 1887 #12: 1878 Hoping if there is another very active ACE that they mainly stay offshore and not like 1893, 1926, 1950, 2004, 2005, 2017, 2020, etc.

2020 only barely missed the top 10 at #13 just behind 1887 and 1878.

Today’s Euro Weeklies are warmer for 3/11-18 and not as cold 3/18-25 vs yesterday’s run.

Today’s Euro Weeklies are warmer for 3/11-18 and not as cold 3/18-25 vs yesterday’s run.

https://atlas.niu.edu/forecast/aam/cfsv2_aam_fcst_current.png

Consistent with this, much of the SE will end up only 1-2 F AN this DJF. I consider that within the NN range. To compare, 2022-23 was 4-5 AN in the same areas or 3F warmer (270 fewer heating degree days) resulting in a very mild winter.

OHC steep drop continues with it down to -0.2, an indicator of a good chance for La Niña later this year.

GLAAM prediction fwiw from CFS ens: goes slightly negative for next 10 days followed by a rise to weak/moderate positive mid to late March meaning an attempt of one last El Niñoish pattern then?

I agree that being in phase 5 in March isn’t itself a warm signal. We happened to have talked about this same thing earlier today in the SE. I had myself assumed it was similar to met winter and thus had at first assumed phases 4 and 5 had a warm signal. Then I was corrected and I agreed with the correction when I saw what’s below. Looking closely at it, it shows both 4 and 5 averaging near normal for FMA in both the SE and TN Valley fwiw with average anomalies between -0.3C and +0.3C. I say fwiw because as we know the MJO is just one factor even though an important one. These are averages of numerous cases with some BN, some NN, and some AN. Phase 8 is also mainly near normal while 6 and 7 have averaged generally warmer than normal while 1-3 have averaged mainly colder than normal per the same source. I saw that today’s Weeklies start off mild for most days of Mar 1-10 in much of our areas with a transition to cold dominating the 2nd half of Mar. However, I’m taking especially the 2nd half of Mar cold prediction with a huge grain due to recent too cold predictions by all of the models. The Weeklies have strong -AO/-NAO blocking along with a moderate +PNA/Aleutian troughing. The problem though is that the AO and NAO forecasts made just 2 weeks ago for now/late Feb were a huge bust: Also, the +PNA ended much more quickly than forecasted. So, it remains to be seen to say the least whether or not these will verify though it appears that the forecast for -AO and -NAO would probably have a weak SPV to support them.

Indeed. The one exception this winter was in late Dec, when they were still predicting mainly mild for that mid Jan week that was then just over two weeks out and that turned out to be the coldest of the winter. What an odd curve ball that was. Some areas predicted on this map to be +5 for that week ended up -20 instead!

They and all the models, including ensembles only 10 or so days out, were fooled by this non existing strong AO/NAO block predicted for mid-Feb. So, then it looked to me like the Bleaklies, extended GEFS, and the CFS ensemble were going to score a big victory once mid Feb. would arrive since the medium range ensembles all now had this. The GEFS as I posted about still had very strong blocking through the Feb 8 run and then it backed off each day more and more til it vanished. So, I had fallen for it.

For the purpose of making the readers laugh and not to be taken seriously, the Euro Bleaklies have for March a mild first third, a short transition, and then a cold last half due to a combo of +PNA/Aleutian Low and a strong -NAO/-AO. I feel like I’m having deja vu all over again as Yogi Bera would say. Don’t shoot the messenger as I’m just messaging the super important inaccurate Bleaklies. Nothing much else is happening anyway.

Even down in this area, we’re in a wintry precip “drought” of sorts. It has been 6 years, 1.5 months since the last T of wintry precip. Not getting even a T has happened in ~50% of seasons and not getting measurable has happened in ~5/6 of seasons. So, for any one cold season, not getting any isn’t the least bit unusual and getting any measurable is a special treat. But not getting even a T for over 6 years is highly unusual as it hasn’t happened since at least the 1880s-1870s. In the 1920s, there was a 5 years, 11 month drought.

FMA fwiw

Morning lows at KSAV 2/19-21: 33, 34, 36 One last sub 40 in the string likely tonight and then Sun (2/25). Another beautiful, very low dewpoint day with another high in the middle 60s expected today. A great time to be outside with pollen still moderate, no bugs, and near perfect wx!

My bad. I was in DJF mode. In reality, phases 4 and 5 average near normal in the SE for FMA with 6 and 7 the warmest ones averaged out. Coldest averaged out are 1, 2 and 3. But regardless, MJO phase correlations are only moderate:

Today’s MJO forecasts suggest an increased chance for moderate or stronger phases 4 and 5 starting ~March 5. The folks wanting it mild to warm then should be happy about this though the correlation of those phases to warmth isn’t that strong as MJO correlations tend to be moderate. Also although very much a fwiw being how poorly they’ve done, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies are mainly mild Mar 1-10.

It wasn’t just the extended models that failed badly. Failing that far out isn’t at all unusual due to low skill. But look at how badly the GEFS (other models were similar) busted with the very strong -AO predictions made 2/6-8 for 2/13-20: 2/6 predicted -3.5 2/7 predicted -3.0 2/8 predicted -3.2 2/6 AO prediction: -3.5 for 2/13-20 (all days sub -3.0!) Actual AO: -0.6 for 2/13-20 (2/16-20 all ended up above all 30 2/6 prediction’s members!)(2/20 ended up +2 vs -3 progs!) https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.gefs.z1000.120days.csv