GaWx

Latest OHC anoms for 180-100W (I think these are to a depth of 300 m):

Cold here this morning with well below normal lows of 35 at Hunter and 37 at KSAV. Looking for highs in the near normal very nice upper 60s.

Charles Krauthammer (RIP) was certainly not an idiot. To the contrary, he was actually brilliant and likely had a Mensa level IQ. I don’t see anything in his article from 2014 that seems moronic. He’s not denying CC as he clearly states.

Obviously, just like for 2017-8, it was an easy A+ here with 3” of sleet/snow along with a little ZR with over 2” of this sleet likely making it the biggest sleet in history, the first wintry precip of any kind/amount in 7 years. Getting any measurable in a winter is a win due to the rarity. Avg sleet/snow is only 0.2”. Also, temps averaged ~1BN.

Yes. There’s been just the 2/10-11/2021 Feb Niña sub -5 AO since 1950 other than the non official Niña of Feb of 2025.

JB is saying that a stratwarm caused widespread US colder than average 3/20-4/14 is still possible. He’s saying Europe being wet has already tipped off this idea 3 times and he thinks it will happen again. But I agree with @snowman19that he usually calls for colder than normal around this period. Also, the Euro Weeklies so far still have not shown any BN signal in the E 2/3 of the US for any upcoming week with AN temps dominating. In addition, the MJO is forecasted to be in the maritime continent on 3/20. But the 60N 10 mb wind reversal is still looking stout with a rapid drop of 50 m/s over just a 7 day period from Mar 5th’s +30 to ~-20 m/s Mar 12. This is similar to the record earliest FW during about the same period in 2016, but that didn’t result in any widespread long lasting E US BN period in late Mar-Apr:

This evening’s walk was easily the windiest in a good number of weeks as a result of the winds behind a secondary cold front having just come through. It felt like there were some gusts to at least 40 mph! I saw one transformer blow nearby. Temps were in the low 60s with dewpoints ~40 making for a very comfortable walk. Low tonight/tomorrow night forecasted to be low 40s/upper 30s with very pleasant highs of 62/68 next 2 days. We had a much needed ~0.4” of rain this morning from light to moderate rain in a fairly narrow fast moving band that went through in ~2 hrs. Nothing severe.

Also, once we get further into spring, many years of data shows the Euro to have a decided warm bias.

1. Feb CPC PNA came out at +1.41, lower than my projection of +1.55 to +1.9. So, that means Feb of 2025 came in 4th highest rather than top 3 because of 2016’s +1.48. The 3 highest were during El Niño. 2. It still comes in way higher than the previous high Feb for La Niña, 2000’s +1.12. Of course officially 2024-5 looks to be neutral. The old record high for neutral in Feb looks like it was +1.07 in 1991. So, 2/2025’s +1.41 easily beats that, too. 3. 2024-5 DJF PNA comes in at +1.39, a bit lower than I had projected due to Feb being below my projected range. That places it 3rd behind the two El Niños of 2015-6 (+1.43) and 1976-7 (+1.41). The +1.39 is well above the next highest.

NYC had these winters with both sub 32 F DJFs and <20” of total seasonal snowfall: -1967-8: 19.5” 88% of normal DJF rainfall -1962-3: 16.3” 64% of normal DJF rainfall -1958-9: 13.0” only 50% of normal DJF rainfall -1900-01: 9.1” only 40% of normal DJF rainfall -1871-2: 14.4” only 50% of normal DJF rainfall

Today’s Euro Weeklies mean min low point isn’t quite as low as yesterday’s -20. It’s ~-18.5 on 3/12, still strong enough:

But will its cooling effects in the E US late Mar through Apr be similarly insignificant? If so, based on what? The AO/NAO for the 2nd half of Mar moved from strongly + on the EW run of Feb 28 to neutral on the 3/3 run.

This morning’s 0Z has the minimum 60N/10mb wind drop on 3/12 all of the way down to -26 on GFS and -24 on GEFS! Also, this is now favored to be a very early FW type of reversal as opposed to just a major SSW type of reversal:

Get it back out just in case says the 0Z Goofy! A full-fledged Barney is along for the ride this time!

Check out this huge change in the EWs at H5 over the Arctic/Greenland for Mar 17-23 over just the last 3 days of runs: 3 days ago (2/28 run) for 3/17-23: solid +AO/+NAO On that run the lowest mean wind at 60N/10mb was only down to near zero: Today’s H5 run for 3/17-23: pretty neutral AO/NAO Today’s min zonal wind way down to -20:

I see that now on the Euro Weeklies. H5 has risen significantly in the Arctic, especially over Greenland, over the last 3 days. Is this an adjustment due to the decreasing mean 60N 10 mb wind? Today’s mean low on Mar 13th dropped from yesterday’s -18 to -20, lowest EW yet. That’s a very strong reversal to either a major SSW or FW. 2m temps in the E US are still strongly favoring AN to NN over BN but are somewhat less mild than yesterday most weeks. Today’s Euro Weeklies favor a very early FW: all members sink to -10 or lower.

I’ll now look at current Nino 1+2 anomalies: way up there due to 2.3 to 2.5 C of warming just since late Jan! CDAS: +1.46 CRW: +1.63 OISST: +1.54 Feb OISST came in at +0.69. Mar looks to be aiming for well over +1. Per history what might that portend for 2025-6 ENSO? First of all, a reduction of ~0.5 may be recommended to take into account GW/relative global tropical temps. But even so, an adjusted Mar might still have a good shot at +1+. -3/2023 Nino 1+2 (on the way to El Nino) was way up at +1.52! Back then RONI was ~0.3 cooler than ONI. So, the relative equiv 3/2023 1+2 may have been ~+1.2. For Mar 2025 to reach that, the actual 1+2 may need to be way up at +1.7. That does seem possible with the current OISST already up at +1.54. Feb 2023’s 1+2 of +0.71 was similar to Feb of 2025’s +0.69. -But OTOH, Feb/Mar of 2017 were way up at +1.14/1.83 and that didn’t head to El Niño as instead 2017-8 was a 2nd year La Niña. -Feb/Mar 1998/1983 strong warmth were leftover from just ending super El Niños. So, they’re not comparable. So, which of 2023 (incoming El Niño) and 2017 (no incoming El Niño) is more likely?

I had thought that the daily cyclonicwx OISST Nino 3.4 SSTs had stopped updating on Jan 5th. It turns out that that wasn’t the case and that the link had changed. So, here is the OISST 3.4 anom as of March 2nd, which is up to +0.043 and is almost as warm as the CRW’s +0.086:

Modoki La Niña? Also, isn’t that +1.1 overdone due to GW? Same reason RONI better than ONI? On a RONIlike basis, Nino 1+2’s +1.1 may be the equivalent of only, say, +0.6.

I’m sure you know NG is +7% today. I doubt that that big of a rise is mainly due to colder models (even if they are colder), especially this late in the heating season, and am instead educatedly guessing it is due to seasonals due to the background state of a 238 bcf deficit vs 5 year avg storage compared to above avg storage as recently as midwinter. This seems more like a delayed effect from last week’s record breaking draw for so late in the season that of course was a result of the prior week’s extreme cold.

Why not just go by RONI? It dipped way down to moderate (-1.09 in NDJ) and that was the 7th straight -0.5- trimonth (starting with the rounded -0.46 of MJJ). Isn’t that enough?

The 12Z EPS mean has increased from about nothing to very light snow that is near the 12Z GEFS amounts in NC: But the EPS mean temp anom map doesn’t even have a Barney Rubble! Looks more like a Pebbles Flintstone. Good luck with that in March:

12Z Euro fwiw has a little snow on Mar 9 outside of the mtns in NW SC/SC NC: This is at the far N end of the qpf: It has just a mini-Barney (Barney Rubble?) during a time of year that daddy-Barney may be needed as one of our posters previously sort of put it:

For NC, 12Z GEFS has reverted to mainly a mountain upslope event: Compare this to the 18Z GEFS, which had 1-2” in the Triangle/Triad. Now it is only 0.2”-0.3”.

But per RONI and MEI v2 it will be an unofficial La Niña, right?