GaWx

Impressive spike! So, I just looked at SIDC, which shows that 290 on 7/18/24, and see “only” 204 for today’s early avg: https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISN_current.txt 2025 08 26 2025.651 187 21.4 26 29 2025 08 27 2025.653 204 15.3 9 13 Let’s see where the full 8/27/25 avg ends up.

Today’s Euro Weekly run not only has the most active 9/15-21 ACE yet, it is the 1st run with 9/22-8 and that is even more active than 9/15-21! It has the quietest Sep week as the 1st one and the noisiest week as the 4th one. That resembles Sep of 2024 somewhat because then the quietest weeks of ACE in Sep were the 1st (0) and 3rd (0) while the 4th had the noisiest by far with AN ACE (18.1). The 2nd had 6.1. Today’s EW ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo 1-7: 4.5 (.3) 8-14: 11.3 (.7) 15-21: 20.4 (1.3) 22-28: 22.4 (1.6) So, today’s vs climo is despite a very quiet 1st week and still BN 2nd week progging the 1st 4 weeks of Sept at 58.6, which compares to only 24.2 in 2024 and ~the active 30 year climo of ~60. To compare, look at what I posted on 8/27/24: Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”: - Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline. - Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow. @PhiEaglesfan712If this EW run were to verify closely, the ACE through 9/30 would be ~100 and keep the door open for a 140+ season total as 30% of Octs-Novs over the last 30 years were 40+.

Today’s Euro Weekly run not only has the most active 9/15-21 ACE yet, it is the 1st run with 9/22-8 and that is even more active than 9/15-21! It has the quietest Sep week as the 1st one and the noisiest week as the 4th one. That resembles Sep of 2024 somewhat because then the quietest weeks of ACE in Sep were the 1st (0) and 3rd (0) while the 4th had the noisiest by far with AN ACE (18.1). The 2nd had 6.1. Today’s EW ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo 1-7: 4.5 (.3) 8-14: 11.3 (.7) 15-21: 20.4 (1.3) 22-28: 22.4 (1.6) So, today’s vs climo is despite a very quiet 1st week and still BN 2nd week progging the 1st 4 weeks of Sept at 58.6, which compares to only 24.2 in 2024 and is ~the active 30 year climo of ~60. To compare, look at what I posted on 8/27/24: Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”: - Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline. - Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow.

The 12Z Icon, which then has it become a TS, is implying an eventual though not immediate safe recurve from the US would later occur on that run fwiw. Other 12Z runs: -GFS still doesn’t have a TC from the far E MDR AEW. However, it does now have a weak reflection at the sfc as well as upper level vorticity clearly showing up now. So, this is a hint that the GFS may in runs soon start showing this as a closed sfc low. -CMC has nothing unlike prior runs -UKMET, Euro, and JMA still yet to be released Edit: Edit: -UKMET is 2nd run in a row without it -Euro: dropped it So, for now it’s just the Icon although JMA not yet out

Sorry, I have no idea. The 12Z Icon is another run with it. It comes off Africa Fri night and is already a TD on Sat/Sat night:

Just like yesterday’s 12Z and today’s 0Z, the 6Z Euro has the low come off Africa Fri evening (not that far out…that’s why I think it’s worth posts). It becomes a TD Saturday night near the CVs, moves slightly S of due W from there, and ends up near 16N, 30W at 144 still as a TD. If this keeps up a few more runs, it would call for a lemon, especially with the CVs potentially impacted within only 5 days. Edit: Actually, with rather strong support by the Euro and Icon, some support by the CMC and JMA, and on/off support by the UKMET, I feel that if the Euro/Icon were to hold onto this at 12Z and if the UKMET were to get it back, it would then already be lemon-worthy even if the GFS still doesn’t have it.

Followup: The Euro (0Z) has this again as a weak low just off Africa. It then eventually comes across to just N of the Leewards as a H moving NW though those details aren’t important so far out on an operational. The EPS (0Z) again has a few TC members from this and they all are headed for a safe recurve from the US. The Icon (6Z) has this again at 120 just off Africa. The GFS (6Z) again doesn’t have this develop. Edit: Unlike the 12Z, the 0Z UKMET doesn’t have this as a TC. The 0Z CMC still has this as a weak low.

0Z followup to all 12Z major ops but GFS showing a surface low forming just off of Africa this weekend: 0Z Icon like 12Z has a sfc low just off Africa Sat. It becomes a TD that day and then a TS by Sun as it moves mainly W just N of the CV Islands.

I just looked at other 12Z ops and there’s actually the same general idea of a LL circ forming just off Africa within 6 days from these 12Z models: Euro, CMC, Icon, JMA, and UKMET. The GFS is about the only major op that has virtually nothing. Hmmmm. 12Z UKMET for example has a TD from right off of Africa moving WSW. When I first saw this on the UKMET, I figured it was likely going to end up as a ghost since I thought it was the only op with it. But then I saw the other models and am now wondering. 12Z UKMET: EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 17.6N 17.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 31.08.2025 132 17.6N 17.6W 1010 25 1200UTC 31.08.2025 144 17.3N 19.7W 1010 24 0000UTC 01.09.2025 156 17.2N 22.2W 1011 23 1200UTC 01.09.2025 168 16.7N 25.6W 1012 25

In the contest post (that you weenied lmao), I predicted 14/9/3 and 139 ACE. So, I expect another weenie here.

1. I don’t see anything near 190 ACE this season. My original prog as stated in the contest thread was for ~139. I see no reason at all to increase that. 2. MH 6? That chance is tiny. I predicted 3 MH in the contest fwiw. 3. H 8 has a much better chance than MH 6 although it will be a challenge. Fwiw, I predicted 9 H in the contest, which is on life support right now. 4. Erin’s highest winds were 160 mph, not 160 knots. I’m assuming that’s a typo.

WeatherTiger update is out: opinions? https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/real-time-2025-atlantic-hurricane?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share Cycloneye of Storm 2K said this about this update: Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%. —————- My take: Seasons with 3+ H hits on the US are considered quite active for the US. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98 So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ US H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models.

Opinions? https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/real-time-2025-atlantic-hurricane?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share Per Cycloneye of Storm 2K, WeatherTiger is suggesting: Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%. —————————— Seasons with 3+ H hits on the US are considered quite active for the US. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98 So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ US H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models. *Corrected

I’ll put this out here for potential discussion purposes. From met. Tony Brite: Edit: one caveat. Tony Brite is assuming 2025 will be just cold neutral ENSO. But per RONI, weak La Niña is actually favored. Also, my research suggests weak La Niña may actually be worse than cold neutral as far as the chance for a rough US hurricane season.

If we still have, say, 60 or less ACE by 9/30, then I’d agree that the chances for an active season ACEwise would be way down. However, that wouldn’t mean no chance when considering that 2024, 2020, and 2005 each had 75-82 ACE Oct 1st+. That would mean that 140 would still be technically attainable on the high end.

Bastardi is taking the opposite side of this, which is what I was referring to about warmer subtropics than tropics tending to stabilize the tropics, themselves: My take is that those subtropical waters will likely largely warm back up within a couple of weeks and make this cooling a forgotten thing by then.

What Derek Ortt is saying is debatable. Why? Because this has cooled a portion of the W subtropical region much more than the tropics, themselves. That arguably actually makes the W tropical Atlantic, itself, more favorable because this brings their anomalies closer together. Warmer subtropics than tropics tends to stabilize the tropics. Erin has reversed that to some extent. Edit: To make it more complicated, these storm related coolings have been reversing more quickly in recent years. So, we’ll see how long that subtropical region remains cool.

ACE is now at 37.14 with just a little more to be added from Fernand. This puts 2024 13th highest of the last 75 (83 percentile). The 1951-2024 avg through today is only 22. However, Invest 90L headed to the W Caribbean is now considered dead. Overall, the models including Euro Weeklies continue to look quite a bit quieter than climo through the 1st half of Sept. If that verifies, we’d quickly fall back down to at least NN ACE. From that point on, it would still remain to be seen whether or not PhiEaglesfan will be right about Erin being about the only big deal this season. I’ll be more than happy to give him kudos if he were to be right. But there’s still such a long way to go, especially in a cold ENSO season, which are often backended. In addition, recent seasons have been getting more backended, quite possibly related to GW.

Everything you said makes sense. Right here in my normally highly vulnerable location along with very high water table due to an insane nearly 17” of rainfall month to date (without a TC causing any of it obviously), I’m quite pleased about the current pattern. Thus I feel about as safe as I’m ever going to feel in late August when sometimes I’m on pins and needles wondering if I’m going to luck out. The big question though is whether an autumn-like pattern in much of August in the E US overall means that same pattern will likely continue through at least most of Sept. or do these anomalous fallish patterns tend to change or even reverse? There may not be a large enough dataset to analyze this.

Being a near east-coaster and also considering last year’s devaststing killer season, especially in NC, I sincerely love your optimism and hope the current pattern holds. One hit already this season is more than enough. Besides it’s fortunately not easy for the EC to be hit compared to the Gulf. Getting two EC TS+ hits in one year isn’t too common…~1/3 of years since 1995. However, regarding EC hits from storms that weren’t home-brew: -2022’s only hit wasn’t til 9/30 (Ian) -2018’s only hit wasn’t til 9/14 (Florence) -2016’s only hit other than TS Bonnie in May wasn't til 10/8 (Matthew) -2012’s only hit other than TS Beryl in May wasn't til 10/29 (Sandy) -2003’s only hit wasn’t til 9/18 (Isabel) -1999’s only H hit wasn’t til 9/15-6 (Floyd) -1989’s only hit wasn’t til 9/21-2 (Hugo) -1985’s worst hit by far wasn't til 9/26-7 (Gloria) -1950’s only hit wasn’t til 10/17 (King) -1947 had a rare 3 EC hits and they were all 9/17+ and only one was home-brew -1945 had one H hit and it wasn’t til 9/15 -1944’s worst H hit wasn’t til 9/14 -1941’s only hit wasn’t til 10/6 -1938’s only hit wasn’t til 9/21 -1928’s worst hit wasn’t til 9/16 -1898’s worst hit by far wasn’t til 10/2 So, these 16 years’ EC hits weren’t til 9/14+ and 50% weren’t til 9/21+.

After that re-drenching ~2” that fell yesterday evening, I’ve had as of 11PM only some on and off largely light rain since early this morning amounting to <0.1” here despite some nearby areas having heavier rains. That gets me to a ridiculous ~16.7” MTD! The mosquitos have been constantly partying this month like it was 1999. We’ll see how the rest of the night goes.

Yeah, I realized you were using 1991-2020 normals. But on that and even on the 2nd chart, it still looks to me like the bulk of the warming at Phil. has been since the late (or maybe mid) 1980s. Imagine cutting the 2nd chart off in 1987. If so, I don’t think any longterm warming trend would show. Instead, it appears to me like the line would be pretty flat. Do you see what I’m seeing?

Don, Am I looking at that graph right? Has virtually all of the warming at Phil been since the late 1980s?

Thanks for your replies! I’m all for open discussion of alternative ideas and that’s why I posted this and others from him. If the alternative idea appears to be plausible, it would probably be supported to an extent. OTOH, if not, it would likely be refuted. Also, I feel it’s important for others to be aware of what’s being spread to so many people (Weather Bell subs in this case) whether plausible or not. Thus, I expect to continue posting Dr. V stuff. In this case, Dr. V’s idea has been refuted several times here. That helps others like myself to be more knowledgeable about the doubtfulness of the plausibility of his idea. Not only that, I learned thanks to bdgwx about OMICS and its fraud. Today, JB posted this as a followup: I'm now going to incorporate this into my (forever) paper which is now in its second draft. The finished product will then be submitted to The International Journal of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resources, a peer-reviewed journal that has accepted other papers I've written in the past (in fact, they solicit me on a regular basis for contributions). That paper will then get passed on to Tom Nelson, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, and my Congressional Representative, Mike Haridopolis. That will hopefully get the geothermal hypothesis onto a higher plane. The bolded adds even more to my doubts about Dr. V. Why? I hate to bring politics into this, but Zeldin and Haridopolis are far righties, which imho has been the source of a lot of misinfo of all kinds, including CC. I’m saying that as a moderate independent as I’m not a liberal or a Democrat. Also, Thomas Nelson is the producer of “Climate The Movie: The Cold Truth”, which tries to minimize the significance of AGW. @donsutherland1

We’re apparently about to have TS Fernand a few hundred miles SSE of Bermuda. Also, Invest 99L is significantly more active on the 12Z Euro ens as it gets to the W Caribbean in ~a week. If it actually does develop there, watch out!