GaWx

For the SE, alone, going back to 1994, I have 2025 second only to 2014 as the coldest because I have it slightly colder than 2018, 2011, 2010, 2003, and 1994.

The trend of the last 2 days of Euro Weeklies has gone strongly in the direction of a major SSW mid Feb: From just 2 days ago: bottomed out only down to +40 mid-Feb with only 1 major SSW then: Brand new: bottoms out +22 mid-Feb w/7 majors:

2024 https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

This from 12Z GFS is likely depicting a major SSW on 2/14/25: keep in mind ability of op GFS to lead ensemble means twice (prior 2 Febs almost to the day) as per my La Niña thread post. If this really occurs, look for possibility of it leading to -NAO late Feb (-AO already being hinted even earlier) and potential of cold in E US late Feb through much of Mar but would help if there’s no strong -PNA/SE ridge just before:

This from 12Z GFS is likely depicting a major SSW on 2/14/25: keep in mind ability of op GFS to lead ensemble means twice (prior 2 Febs almost to the day) as per my prior post. If this really occurs, look for possibility of it leading to -NAO late in Feb (-AO already shown on GEFS mid-Feb) and potential of cold in E US late Feb through much of Mar with best chance if no preexisting strong RNA:

Today’s update: 0Z GFS dips to +6 on 2/14 vs +13 on 2/13 for prior 3 runs and +28 on 1/28 run. GEPS dips to +16 vs +32 just yesterday! GEFS dips to +29 vs +39 yesterday. 6 ens members go <0 vs none on 6 prior 0Zs. GFS maintained its impressive 30K warming. GEPS is 10K warmer vs yesterday: For those wondering about ability of GFS op to sniff out a major SSW ahead of ensembles, it did just that twice last 2 winters: 1. It was well ahead in forecasting 2/18/24: 2. It was also well ahead in predicting 2/16/23:

Record high tying 83 at more inland KSAV! Also, that’s only 1 from 84 alltime Jan high and is warmest this season since 83 of Nov 8th! Hunter and city itself were in upper 70s. That month ending record warmth capped off a very memorable month. It was an amazing month with ~6 BN and what very likely was the heaviest sleetfall in modern records (back to 1874) in this area. IMBY I measured 2.9” of a combo of mainly sleet along with some ZR solidifying the sleet and then topped off with a little snow. The sleet was at a min 2” although I suspect it was closer to 2.5”. The 44.9F avg makes it the coldest month since Dec 2010 and coldest Jan since 1981. It was tied with 1966 for the 9th coldest Jan since 1874. It was the 3rd coldest La Niña Jan behind only 1893 and 1918.

The SE may need a major SSW to help turn things around during the last few days of Feb. But in meantime, today’s Euro Weeklies are even warmer for Feb as a whole with some areas a whopping 7 AN, near the normal for Mar!

The last 3 0Z GFS runs have consistently progged a 60N zonal wind min of +13 on Feb 13th, which would be ~one week after the progged S-G Dipole max. We’ll see whether or not these progs actually progress to a major SSW on/near Feb 12th-13th. Regarding the progged 60-90N 10 mb temperature rise, today’s 0Z is the most impressive yet with a whopping 31K rise to +238K on Feb 14-5! Yesterday’s rose only to +231K and Jan 28-29 runs rose only to +227-228K:

Regarding the bolded: the current +QBO is, indeed, the exact opposite of 2/12/2018’s -QBO. However, it is the same as 2/16/2023’s +QBO. Also, Joe D’Aleo found (and I confirmed) a strong correlation between high Solar/+QBO and major SSWs. So, it now being +QBO shouldn’t on its own reduce the SSW chance but if anything should raise the chance. Furthermore, 2/12/2018 was during very low solar. We now have the opposite, which per Joe enhances the chance a whole lot. 2/16/2023 was during pretty active solar as I assume you know. In the meantime let’s first see if there’s even going to be one. It’s fun to see how these evolve!

The SE’s best bet to get the pattern to change back to cold by the last few days of Feb and through at least much of March is to have a mid Feb major SSW. As of yesterday, the EPS and GEFS means were still showing no indication of that being much of a possibility with instead showing strong SPV related mean 60N zonal winds at midmonth. However, I was alerted earlier tonight by Dr. Simon Lee tweets that a strong Scandinavian (high)-Greenland (low) SLP Dipole was on the models Feb 6-7. The reason that’s important is that he’s done studies showing that this Dipole is often a precursor to a major SSW by ~~1 week. The last few GFS runs have been hinting at a much weaker SPV in mid Feb. We should know much more by the Sunday runs. In addition, Joe D’Aleo did a study that concluded a high chance for a major SSW during high solar/+QBO winters like 2024-5. Dr. Simon Lee’s study of S-G Dipole: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030940 0Z 1/31/24 GFS 168: strong S-G Dipole:

Further to the above fwiw, the 0Z 1/29 GFS (latest available) brought the mean wind down to 19 m/s on Feb 13th and 13 m/s on Feb 14th: In comparison, the prior run (0Z 1/28) had it bottoming out way up at 28 m/s on Feb 13th: So, the GFS had a significant drop on 1/29. I’ll be watching the GFS closely because it was ahead of the ensembles in advance of 2 major SSWs since 2023.

You may be onto something that I wasn’t paying attention to til just now when I saw this on the 0Z GFS 168 for Feb 7: check out the strength of this Scandinavian-Greenland Dipole! Is this what you were looking at yesterday? This paper was written by Dr. Simon Lee and others about the 2/12/2018 major SSW that was not forecasted beyond 12 days: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030940 He talks about a S-G Dipole pattern (strong high over Scand/low over Greenland) often being predictive of major SSWs before models actually do so (they’re still not). This dipole peaked ~2/6/2018, or only one day prior to the forecasted peak of ~2/7/25! Aside: the major SSW of 2/16/23 was also preceded by a similar early Feb S-G Dipole! Dr. Lee’s latest tweets: Despite the models still not showing even a hint of a major SSW, I’ve been wary about it based on Joe D’Aleo’s study showing a heightened chance during high solar/+QBO. I took his idea and looked at the actual #s. I considered high solar for DJF to be 135+. DJ will be ~145. If Feb ends up 115+, it would qualify. Check this out: Solar DJF 135+/west QBO: 57-8: SSW 1/31/58 59-60: SSW 1/17/60 69-70: SSW 1/2/70 78-9: SSW 2/22/79 80-1: SSW 2/6/81 90-1: no SSW 99-00: SSW 3/20/00 01-02: SSW 12/31/01, 2/18/02 So, a whopping 7 of these 8 winters had at least one major SSW! Just food for thought. The progged strong Feb 7th S-G Dipole is consistent with a potential major SSW on or near Feb 13th if it were to actually occur with similar timing to 2018. If so, look for hints on the EPS/GEFS starting this weekend. IF there were to be one ~Feb 13th, look out for the potential of a colder E US pattern starting ~Feb 27th and lasting through at least ~Mar 15th and quite possibly the entire month or further. Anything to keep the bugs quiet would be a winning pattern for me!

We’ll see whether or not they go back to the slightly AN to NN mid to late Feb maps of yesterday. But today was painful to see. Unlike you I like cold regardless of snow, which is very rare here. There’s way too much humid heat May-Sept. I’d much rather the Weeklies show it cold. When they’ve been cold this winter (late Nov/early Dec, much of Jan), they’ve been accurate. They’ve also done well with warmups. That’s why I hate seeing them this warm. Regardless, the 2-3 day cold snap within week 2 of Feb remains on the model consensus.

I never noticed there was a different Euro Weeklies chart for surface! I always look at 2m. For determining frost on ground, I’d think surface would be more important than 2m. On good radiational cooling nights, you may already realize that surface is sometimes couple of degrees colder than 2m due to colder air being heavier. But 2m is official. And thus I’ll continue to use those. On nights after a cold front has just come through and the cold winds are advecting colder air, I’d think sfc would tend to be slightly warmer. When sun is out, the ground should be warmer than 2m, especially in summer.

-I thought 2m and surface were the same. -Please show me where they’re different. -Shades of red: anomalies in degrees C 1st: 0 to +1 2nd: +1 to +3 3rd: +3 to +6 4th: +6 to +10 5th: +10+

Unfortunately for cold lovers like myself, today’s Euro Weeklies for 2/17-23 & 2/24-3/2 totally reversed yesterday’s much colder runs for those two weeks and are back to a solid mild signal: 2/17-23: The other 5 weeks of the run through 3/16 are about as warm or warmer. The implied prog for Feb as a whole is for ~6F AN in much of the SE. The good news is that there’s still plenty of time for especially late Feb to reverse. But the overall signal for a mild SE in Feb has been persistent with a dominant SE ridge and +AO/+NAO (canonical La Niña Feb). And for those worried about cold rains in early Mar, this run says “no worries” like it did yesterday.

Unfortunately for cold lovers like myself, today’s Euro Weeklies for 2/17-23 & 2/24-3/2 totally reversed yesterday’s much colder runs for those two weeks and are back to a solid mild signal: 2/17-23: All 6 weeks of today’s run are this warm or warmer in the E US. The implied Feb avg is ~4F AN NYC and ~5-6F DC south. Would be very close to March normals in SE. Many places in the area DC south would have a Feb ~13-15 warmer than Jan. Be that as it may, there still appears to be a good shot at a 2-3 day long cold period starting Feb 8-9.

I don’t disagree for the most part. But I was responding to CWG’s tweet saying this: “MJO approach to phase 7 could flip pattern back to cold side for U.S. by 2nd week of February, similar to super-warm late December to cold early January flip from this winter.” So, the tweet was referring explicitly to temperatures and said nothing about snow. Thus, my response was referring to just temperatures based on what 0Z/6Z model consensus was showing. I wasn’t at all addressing snow, which is much more unpredictable, especially 11+ days out, since it is so dependent on precise storm track and actually having a storm at the right time. Also, some do care about temps on their own.

Even in a mild (cold) month, a short period or two of cold (mild) isn’t uncommon. 0Z/6Z ens means are suggesting a 2-3 day long cold period is quite possible in the E US starting ~Feb 9th-10th but otherwise they’re mainly on the mild side NYC south and restrengthen the SE ridge immediately afterward. So, the means for the first half of Feb would still easily be AN NYC south. Will keep watching ens mean trends for Feb 9th+ to see how they trend going forward. Phases 6-7, especially 6, lean toward the AN temp side in Feb fwiw. Phases that are BN on avg in Feb are 8, 1, 2, and 3, especially if amplitude isn’t strong.

Even in a mild (cold) month, a short period or two of cold (mild) isn’t uncommon. 0Z/6Z ens means are suggesting a 2-3 day long cold period is quite possible in the E US starting ~Feb 9th-10th but otherwise they’re mainly on the mild side NYC south and restrengthen the SE ridge immediately afterward. So, the means for the first half of Feb would still easily be AN NYC south. Will keep watching ens mean trends for Feb 9th+ to see how they trend going forward. Phases 6-7, especially 6, lean toward the AN temp side in Feb fwiw. Phases that are BN in Feb on avg are 8, 1, 2, and 3, especially if amplitude isn’t strong.

Yeah, I fully realize that it takes on average a couple of weeks to translate vertically. But about all of Jan has been much stronger than average with high 50s to 60 also 1/7-14 (see image below) and it was pretty high before that. Yes, I realize you didn’t say significantly colder.

Even a weak SPV isn’t anywhere close to being a reliable indicator for a cold E US. Consider that the SPV mean wind was actually peaking near a record high upper 50s on the days that the Deep South had an historic snow/sleetstorm (1/21-2)!

However, the latest Euro Weeklies and extended GEFS still show no strong signal for a major SSW in Feb like they did for the several that occurred in 2023 and 2024. But Joe D’Aleo did find a connection with high solar and +QBO that says to be on guard for that possibility: EPS (1/29): shows 60N 10 mb zonal winds dropping 2/6-15, but mean drops only to a little above climo with most members at 15-40: GEFS (1/28): mean drops to 40 on Feb 11th, but that’s still well above 20 climo (**edited for correction): *Edited for correction

Good news for you as of now. There’s no indication for a cold first 1/3 of March on today’s Euro Weeklies. Though it could of course change drastically since it is over a month away, this map shows the opposite of cold in the E US: This is for Mar 3-9: