GaWx

Both the CFS and the Euro Weeklies this winter have had the E (including the SE) with far BN temps several weeks in advance (and the coldest anomalies on the globe) and they remained consistent with the cold thereafter. These are just 3 examples of the many times they did with strong signals for cold in the E US: Issued 12/28/24 for 1/13-19: CFS 48 forecast mean (4 members, 12 runs 12/25-28) for 1/11-17: CFS 48 forecast mean (4 members, 12 runs 12/29-1/1) for 1/15-22): In contrast, today’s significantly colder Euro map vs yesterday for 2/17-23 is at least as of yet nowhere near as cold: Latest CFS 48 forecast mean for 2/20-7: still mild in E US

Well Mr. Moles, I wouldn’t say in bank but 3”+ storms in Feb in GA have tended to occur mid to late Feb to Mar 2nd as well as in late Jan. For an unknown reason early Feb has been quiet. Could be merely randomness.

Though still not showing anywhere near BN cold and still mild through 2/16 in the SE, the new Euro Weeklies have cooled off from AN to only slightly above to NN in N portions 2/17-3/2 in the SE US. We’ll see whether or not that is a one run aberration. 2/17-23: (2/24-3/2 looks similar in SE)

There’s been no measurable snow/sleet in ATL during Feb since 2014. In the late 1800s, Feb was the snowiest month.

The Euro Weeklies have been amazingly accurate this winter several weeks out! This 500 mb map below was released on Dec 15th for Jan 6-12, which was at the release time 22-28 days in the future. One can see that the coldest anomalies on the entire globe were targeting the E US even 3-4 weeks out, which verified well. The cold on these and the 2m maps intensified as the period got closer. The Euro did similarly well for the subsequent two weeks (Jan 13-19 and Jan 20-26) well in advance concentrating the coldest on the planet in the E US. For Feb they’ve been harping on a much milder pattern in the E US especially south of New England (canonical La Niña Feb pattern) thanks to a -PNA/+AO/+NAO (near opposite of Jan). Based on the Euro’s impressive accuracy weeks in advance and La Niña climo, I see no reason to bet against a much warmer pattern, especially MidAtlantic/Ohio Valley south. This Euro 2m temp map is for Feb 3-9: much warmer than Jan especially most of E US and much colder SW Canada and NE Canada/Greenland: This one is for Feb 10-16: similar

850 mb temperatures for the airmass a week ago were as cold as -37C in the upper Midwest! That’s not seen too often.

Today’s Euro Weeklies for Feb are ~5F AN vs yesterday’s ~+4F. More like a normal March than Feb. But cheer up as that would still be 2-3F cooler than Febs 2023, 2018, and 2017. So, it could always be worse.

We finally lost the last remnants of the very stubborn mainly sleet-cover yesterday (started from 3”). So, it lasted just over 5 days mainly in some shaded spots. Impressive staying power but that’s the nature of sleet combined with some ZR on bottom and some snow mixed in top layer. It took some rain to help lose it.

Yes: 4/2/1965 had 1.2” at NYC. Other metro stations were similar.

Agreed as of now. The following La Niña Feb/Mar had a late Feb/early Mar -AO/-NAO; all but one had a major SSW preceding it: 2023: Feb 16th 2018: Feb 12th 2006: Jan 21st (also had -AO/-NAO a month earlier) 2001: Feb 11th 1971 in early to mid Mar: Jan 17th 1965: the exception of these 6 as there was no SSWE til Mar 23rd Whereas the models (extended EPS/GEFS) continue to show nothing, the combo of current high solar and +QBO suggests per Joe D’Aleo and confirmed by my own analysis that the chance for one is actually good. So, we’ll need to monitor. Of course if it occurs and it isn’t til, say, Mar, it would be unimportant for late Feb/early Mar due to lag.

The latest Euro Weeklies are dominated in Feb by AN in the Ohio Valley and MidAtlantic south to the SE. Feb 10-16 warmed from NN to AN. But New England remains mainly only slightly AN to NN. Favoring E warmth is a SE ridge/-PNA/Aleutian ridge in combo with a +AO/+NAO. The tricky thing though is a pretty strong -EPO for the 1st half of the month, which could allow for some cold (probably well modified) to reach these otherwise mild areas and especially NE/Ohio Valley. The Euro Weeklies have been magnificent so far this winter and is why I like to post about them whether cold or mild.

The new Euro Weeklies for the SE are AN every week of Feb. Overall, this run is even warmer than yesterday’s as a result of a warmer Feb 10-16, which is AN vs the NN of the prior two runs. This run has much of the SE at an anomaly of ~+4F, which would equate to in the absolutes about a 11-14F warmer month than Jan. The SE ridge/-PNA/Aleutian ridge as well as +AO/+NAO are dominant through the month. The main fly in the ointment is a pretty strong -EPO for the 1st half of the month, which may allow for some cold air sneaking in at times although the weeklong 2m maps don’t explicitly show any. The Euro Weeklies have been magnificent weeks in advance for this winter so far. That’s why I feel they’re worthy of posts and is why I’ve been regularly posting about them throughout this winter whether cold or mild.

Don’t forget that even a mild winter month can and often does have a short cold period. They’re far from mutually exclusive. Just like a cold month often has a short mild period.

I’m projecting Jan of 2025 to end up with a mean temp of 44.8F (~6F BN) in Savannah. That would make it the coldest Jan since 1981 and tied with 1918 for the 8th coldest Jan back to 1874 behind only: 1893, 1940, 1958, 1970, 1977, 1978, and 1981 For non-El Nino only, 2025 would with 1918 be tied for 3rd coldest Jan behind only 1893 (La Niña) and 1981 (cold neutral)! Here are the only 6 La Niña Jans that were 46 or colder at KSAV: 1887 (46.0) 1893 (44.3) 1918 (44.8) 1976 (45.9) 1985 (45.3) 2011 (45.1) Average of these 6: 45.2 (MB) How were the subsequent Febs along with their anomalies using 53.6 as normal? 1887: 59.9 (MA) 1893: 56.8 (A) 1918: 58.9 (MA) 1976: 56.3 (A) 1985: 52.9 (N) 2011: 55.4 (slightly A) Average of these 6: 56.7 (A) -So, for these very cold (46 or colder/MB) Nina Jans, the following Febs averaged a whopping 11.5 warmer! -None were BN. -All but 1985 were 10+ warmer than the prior Jan. The Euro Weeklies are suggesting Feb of 2025 will be 10+ warmer than Jan of 2025 at KSAV thanks to a dominant solid SE ridge. Based on the above analysis, I have no reason to doubt that this will actually occur as of now. Historical data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=chs

Today’s Euro Weeklies for 2/10-16 and 2/17-23 are a bit warmer than they were yesterday in the E US. There remains no BN in the E US for these weeks til the end. Canonical La Niña Feb. but nowhere near enough to match the cold of Jan. Thus this winter will ultimately likely be remembered most for the very cold Jan in much of the country along with the historically snowy Deep South. Major kudos to Euro Weeklies for predicting Jan quite well weeks in advance! We’ll see whether or not anything else quite notable will occur in Feb. This much warmer Feb vs Jan has been forecasted by the Euro for a number of weeks: 2/10-16: stronger warmth E US with shade 3 in some areas 2/17-23: some slight AN part of MidAtlantic south vs all NN yesterday:

I think today’s Euro Weeklies will revert back to warmer than yesterday based on today’s 0Z Euro ens at 360.

This is what got me confused. It says leaving faucets to drip is only for indoor ones! After all of these decades of hearing that outside should be dripped, now I see this? What the? Mine have been very slow dripping for 5 days:

New Euro Weeklies trended colder/quite cold Feb 3-9 W 2/3 of US while E 1/6 retains warmth due to SE ridge…will need to see whether or not this cold will eventually be able to make it to the E at least in modified form: Feb 3-9: Feb 10-16 trended much colder in E US, where it had been mild, with no AN: this has the look of those cold leftovers making it to E despite a SE ridge pattern: Yesterday’s 2/10-6: mild throughout E US!

OT but due to higher vis here: Should outside spigots be dripped or not?

Tony, Have you considered staying at a hotel or with someone you know nearby until your heat is fixed? That’s insane! Are you sleeping in a parka? Does this mean you also don’t have hot water?

Thanks, Don. As I posted in the storm thread, the supposed 1.1” of sleet/snow at KSAV (airport) is not being believed even by the Charleston NWS office (that covers Savannah)! This is an unmanned ASOS and is only checked by an FAA person at a certain time. The CHS met in charge (Brian, who recently moved to CHS from Phil) confirmed to me yesterday that KSAV had a whopping 1.33” of melted liquid equiv and near 100% of this fell with temps under 32 (mainly upper 20s). There was only minimal ZR (outages in the area were a fraction of 1%) and I saw only a little myself in Savannah. That means the 1.33” fell as mainly sleet and snow. I measured about the same melted precip and measured 2.9” of sleet and snow with most being sleet and their precip changed to snow earlier! There are still shaded grassy areas around town with 3”! So, the combo of having ~100% of 1.33” of liquid with temps below 32 , minimal ZR, and 1.1” of IP/SN and considering other SAV area obs (majority of CoCoRaHS reported 2.5-3.5” of mainly sleet) means that even KCHS per yesterday’s telecon isn’t at all believing it’s accuracy. He was very thankful and feels the same frustration. He assured me that it will be thoroughly investigated though he couldn’t at all assure me the official records will change (snowfall and the recorded 0.71” liquid equiv). He said one of the problems on the liquid equiv is that it fell 6PM-6AM (straddled two days) and the observer didn’t wasn’t there at midnight. I suggested they just report the two day total as the storm total and have the equivalent of an asterisk to explain. The 1.1” will also be hard to change due to the observer twice saying it was that. He said it will take months to investigate all the way to the NCDC. I already feel it will be a losing battle. If you have any suggestion please let me know. Aside: The 1/2018 liq equiv was also severely underreported as ~1/4” when it was really ~3/4” because the measuring device froze up! Edit: This is extra frustrating because KSAV gets storms like this on average no more often than once a generation. The last time there was one with liquid equiv of 1.33”+ was the late Jan of 1922 precursor to the Washington, DC tragic Knickerbocker snowstorm!! In SAV, it was a severe ZR. To have these data reporting issues in our age of advanced tech makes it even more frustrating. And that also gets me thinking about how reliable are 100 year old records. Edit #2: I’m now picking up my sis from airport. While waiting, l just measured an estimated 2” on the ground of a hard layer) (mainly sleet) and this is over 3 days later! @Daniel Boone

Ouch! I saw some shady grassy locations late this afternoon with still nearly 3” on ground! That’s the staying power of sleet combined with the light ZR that fell early and provided solid icy base and helped by high of only a little warmer 46 today (42 yesterday). We fell back to 32 surprisingly at ~8PM, only an hour later than last night. So, tough driving conditions will be developing soon in many areas as there were still a lot of wet roads in shady areas and even still snowcover remnants. Where roads were cleared there’s a lot of ice on edges, which was melting and keeping roads wet. I had @dsaurTony walk #3 late this afternoon. Maybe 4th one tomorrow!

Update 1/24 9:05 AM: SAV will resume flight operations at noon today. We encourage passengers to stay in touch with their airline for the most up-to-date flight information. Parking and rental car services are open. Concessions may be limited due to availability and staffing. Please use caution when driving on roadways as snow and ice continue to melt.

Not BN but I see Feb 3-9 has cooled in the NE to NN vs AN earlier though the SE is still a bit AN with a SE ridge: Feb 3-9 is also a bit cooler in the NE with only slightly AN to NN vs AN in earlier runs. But again the SE is AN (moderately) but like 1st map it’s NN along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts due to the lingering cold waters from the very cold Jan: After this, while the SE/MidAtlantic are still AN and there’s not even a hint of blue in the E US with an RNA, New England remains NN. In summary, it overall looks like a much warmer month than Jan, especially MidAtlantic south, but NE still stays near normal. Euro Weeklies have done very well this winter making calls, including the cold Jan. So, I’d take it’s warmer Feb forecast with much more than a grain.

Appreciate that Tony kept most of the ZR away! I don’t sled in it, but I love taking sleet walks. I’m a take a walk kind of guy in general and this makes the walks extra special. Today is (mainly) sleet walk #2 in still 3” of it in shady areas. I’m renaming it a Tony walk in his honor. Yesterday was a neighborhood walk, but today it was safe to drive to the park. When I walk I seek out shady spots off the side of the path where the 3” is still largely intact. I love the pleasantly crunchy feeling when walking in it. TBH, it feels like I’m walking in wet snow.