GaWx

I’ll come back to that. But please address what I just posted, which clearly shows that Nov 3-7th of 2023 is warmer than June 1-30 of 2023 on the depth charts. That tells me that there’s a disconnect. Do you see what I’m saying?

There appears to be a disconnect between these TAO/Triton depth graphs and the time series OHC graph. Otherwise, the Nov 3-7 averaged OHC would now be significantly warmer than the June OHC, which per the time series OHC is the warmest full month so far. Compare the two depth charts below. Compared to June, the only portion of 100W-180 on Nov 3-7 that is cooler is 100-120W from 0 to 125m depth. Otherwise, 120W-180 from 0 to 300m is significantly warmer on Nov 3-7 vs June. Nov 3-7th: June 1-30:

Below is the latest, the 5 day average ending on 11/7/23 with it cropped to only go down to 300m. Looking at 100-180W (most of this) and assuming this is based on the same data that the daily graph of 100-180W OHC uses, it appears to me that there’s a good shot at a new high on the graph of this Nino within the next few weeks. I wouldn’t all be shocked if +1.50 is reached. The current high is near +1.35 set in mid June. *Edited for typo as it is 5 days ending on 11/7

About normal after accelerating during the last few days of Oct.

I hope Nino 3.4 warms a few tenths during the next couple of weeks without Nino 3 warming as much so as to move the Nino a little bit toward/away from CP/EP. The OHC has been steadily warming in recent weeks. So, that may give it an extra boost.

I realize the NOAA data can’t be used for real time since it updates only after the end of each month. Thus, if there’s a big PDO rise, we’d get a much earlier hint from WCS than from NOAA since the changes correlate pretty well. That’s why I love this newly discovered WCS chart. I’m wild guessing that if there were an actual NOAA daily (something we can’t see) that it probably now would be ~~-2 rather than ~~-1 based on WCS being ~-1. If it is, say, -2, that would mean a big rise from Sep, when the NOAA table’s month averaged way down at -2.97. That means some of the Sep dailies had to have been sub -3. So, if NOAA dailies really are now ~-2, that would mean NOAA also has risen substantially since Sep.

For those who don’t know, keep in mind that this is the WCS OISST based PDO. I love following it because it updates daily and we can get an early idea about trends. But the monthly table that @bluewave and I are referring to is the NOAA ERSST table found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat The values in this NOAA table have been much more negative for the entire year. It had Oct at -2.36 whereas the WCS OISST averaged out at ~-1.00 for Oct. So, WCS is probably in the general vicinity of -2.

1. I’m still hoping for a rise to a modest -PDO for DJF averaged. There have been three cool to cold E US Nino winters with a modest -PDO: 1911-12 (-0.40), 1957-8 (-0.28), and 1968-9 (-0.74). 2. We can always hope for something like 1939, which had a massive PDO rise that went from -1.49 in Oct to a +1.60 in DJF: 1.17 -0.10 -0.63 0.03 0.12 -0.07 -1.10 -1.31 -1.54 -1.49 -0.90 1.44 1940 1.82 1.55 1939-40 was a very cold E US winter

Yeah, I agree that more warming in 3.4 should be more favorable for winter in the E US as it would get it closer to a CP Nino and further from an EP Nino.

Thanks. So, the new NMME has near normal for much of the E/SE, similar to most others as well as to the prior run. It looks like it may have gotten a little warmer in much of the area from near Chicago to TX though I want to do a comparison when it gets onto TT to see if that’s true as baselines may be different.

He assumed that based on the much wetter NMME vs last month in the W US. I still haven’t seen 2m temperatures update on TT. Has anyone seen 2m anywhere?

Indeed, the Sep-Oct period is often dry in/in advance of moderate+ Ninos with E coast wetness not starting til Nov or Dec:

I’d welcome more Nino 3.4 warming as per RONI it is still only in the lower half of moderate and a warmer 3.4 would make it more of a CP/EP combo Nino instead of more EP dominated.

Today’s update of this OHC graph has been revised significantly warmer for late Oct/early Nov with it suggesting it has risen back to ~+1.2 and rising further. Let’s see if it later exceeds the earlier two peaks as the most recent animation provided by @so_whats_happeningsuggested to me could possibly occur soon:

Indeed, it has been unusually dry in the TN Valley for El Niño since Sep 1st. However, much of the rest of the SE and E is often on the dry side in Sep and Oct of Ninos. Much of the central US is often wet like it was in Oct of 2023: Sep to Oct precip moderate+ Ninos: The typical E coast El Niño wetness doesn’t start til Nov or Dec with dryness often becoming dominant in the TN Valley then…it is almost as if the TN Valley has gotten dry two months too early. Nov to Mar precip moderate+ Ninos:

So, I wrote all of that stuff about his MEI tables and analyzed the MEI way more than I ever have only to later see him say it has a lot of flaws? Bummer!

You worry too much. It is just weather. We’d very likely survive a mild winter. Personally, I have way bigger concerns in my life lol. If that were my biggest concern, I’d be a very happy camper! Actually for me, winter is my favorite season even if mild even though I’d much rather have it cold way down here in the Deep South, where cold is so outweighed by heat and humidity overall.

Yes it would increase the chance of a warm winter though that doesn’t necessarily mean it would be warm. It could be near normal and there’s always the fluke chance of it being cold. I’ll again gear this to the SE/Midsouth since that’s near where you live. Of the 25 El Niño winters since 1951-2, I found NONE that were BN in the bulk of our area with an MEI of 0.4 or lower in winter although some were near normal. So, clearly the message is that the chances during El Niño of getting a BN winter are higher with an MEI of +0.5 at the very least. So, we’ll definitely want to see it bounce back higher with the next update. Aside: There were two warm neutral winters (per ONI) that had a MEI of 0.3 or lower in winter that were BN in the SE: 1993-4 and 2003-4. But those weren’t El Niños. Thus they’re irrelevant.

Of course, it depends on the region. For the SE US including much of TN, the 10 coldest El Niño winters back to 1951-2 were 1957-8, 1963-4, 1965-6, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, 2002-3, 2009-10, and 2014-5. Per Webb’s table these were the rounded DJ MEIs: +1.5, +0.9, +1.3, +1.2, +0.8, +0.8, +0.7, +1.0, +1.1, and +0.5. So, range of +0.5 to +1.5 for the DJ MEI with a mean of +0.95 and a median of +0.95. So, sweet spot near +1.0 for the 10 coldest in the SE. The 6 coldest were 1957-8, 1963-4, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, and 2009-10. MEIs for these 6: +1.5, +0.9, +0.8, +0.8, +0.7, and +1.1. So, range of +0.7 to +1.5 with mean of +1.0 and median of +0.85. I’d say for the SE that if we could get this winter a DJ MEI to within the +0.6 to +1.2 range, a <-0.50 DJF AO, and a <+0.25 NAO, I’d bet heavily on a 2F or more BN DJF. With SO at +0.26, what are the odds of getting a +0.6 to +1.2 three bimonths later? We’d need a rise of 0.34 to 0.94. What % of the 25 El Niños rose within/near that range? 20% (these five: 1968-9, 1982-3, 1986-7, 1991-2, and 2009-10). The avg change from SO to DJ is ~0. Nearly half (12 of 25) fell. None rose more than 0.7. So, now that the MEI unexpectedly dropped 0.33 this bimonth, the challenge will be for it to rise enough with little chance of it rising too much. So, I’ll be rooting for a significant rise in the next two bimonths. I’d like to see a rise of +0.2+ back to +0.5+ in ON. Edit: Was 2023’s drop of 0.33 from AS to SO the largest back to 1948 for El Nino? Actually, no as 1986 dropped slightly more (0.40) before it rebounded 0.50 from SO to ND, which I’d love to see. Webb’s 1948-2019 MEI: https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

Do you or does anyone else have a link to MEI before 1979? I’d like to see the MEI for more El Niños.

Latest WCS daily PDO (11/6) is -0.94 after dipping back to -1.03 on 10/31. Keep in mind though that the NOAA equivalent daily PDO has been much lower and could very well be near or even lower than -2.00 as Oct came in at -2.36 vs WCS’ ~-1.00:

It could. I suspect this is based on a stronger El Niño.

The updated NMME qpf for DJF appears to be out early (being that it is a 0Z Nov 8th run) and is much wetter in both the E US and W US vs the prior run. The temperatures aren’t out yet: Old run:

So, you think that the globe being ~1F warmer than any other Oct is enough to confidentially say that about the E US even with ENSO being dramatically different from a year ago?

Never mind the forecasts. I’m confused about the CFS initialization. The CFS graph that I posted has ~+0.2 as of 12Z on 11/6 (initialization) vs ~-0.6 for the supposed actual at about the same time. Anyone understand the discrepancy?