GaWx

Regardless of what this storm does or doesn’t do, the EPS is about as perfect as can be for us for 3.5 days out. Hope we get 1”+! This suggests 70-90% chance for our corridor!! Also, note 90%+ for ILM, MB, Charleston, Albany, Dothan, Pensacola, Mobile, Biloxi, and N.O.!!

12Z EPS members snow (excludes sleet/ZR): it is 10:1 rather than Kuchera. So, I’d take ~1/4 off for deep SE but still this is about the best ever for deep SE/Gulf coast. May not be next opportunity like this for many years to come! It may be finally our time to shine. Not a flake or pellet in 7 years. And maybe history about to be made?! We’ll see as this is still ~3.5 days out so not getting hopes up too high. Also, there’s the very real danger of a bad icestorm even into N FL! @metallica470 @Awesomesauce81 @gtg947h

12Z EPS 10:1 looks amazingly good for many and even historic for deep SE! Ens maps like this in deep SE/Gulf coast almost unheard of: Qpf:

And most of GA/SC among others

12Z Euro similar to 6Z: Sleet ZR

What about Feb 12 or 13 of 1899?

12Z GEFS vs 6Z/0Z: further SE/weaker GOM low, drier

Snow line further S on 12Z CMC: better run for deep SE

Areas in SE GA/S SC that were ZR on 0Z CMC have sleet on 12Z CMC due to further SE track

12Z CMC SE of 0Z 0Z CMC

CMC will be further SE than 0Z

Early maps suggest 12Z GFS will also come in a bit S of prior runs.

I don’t know about NW trend of model consensus stopping as 12Z Icon came in slightly N of its prior. But it may be more that the 12Z CMC trends south because CMC has been N of the others and is correcting itself. Also, Icon has been S of most others and was due to trend N.

Compare 12Z RGEM 84 with 0Z CMC 96: big diff! 12Z RGEM 84 0Z CMC 96 had the low/precip much further N and related to that the low was 4 mb stronger/more amped

The 12Z 84 RGEM is ~150 miles further S with the Gulf low vs the 0Z CMC 96 and precip shield is significantly further south along with it. Thus, I’m expecting the 12Z CMC to come in significantly south of the 0Z CMC with the precip/snow line/540 line, etc.

This means the 12Z CMC should come in a little south of its 0Z with slightly lower thicknesses and a little further S snow line. Also, 12Z RGEM well south of NAM.

Yep. Stronger low. Precip further n

Euro early maps show low/precip will likely be further N than 18z

Also has offshore wave 2 Thu. Complex situation!

0Z Uk further N with qpf vs 12Z

72 hour 0Z Uk vs 84 hour 12Z: similar to CMC…I bet snow line further N than 12Z Uk but keep in mind Pivotal Uk snow maps not accurate on SE side due to counting Ip/ZR as SN

0Z models all show a 2nd wave just offshore the SE that will need to be watched for Thu/Thu nite.

84 hour 0Z RGEM fwiw has not quite as strong Arctic high nearby and 540/546 thicknesses are slightly further N ahead of the low vs 12Z CMC 96. I wonder if this means 0Z CMC will be slightly further north than 12Z with snow line.

Icon: snow furthest N of last 3 runs S of that snow is ZR down to Gainesville to JAX corridor qpf Tue afternoon

EASTERN ALACHUA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GAINESVILLE, GAINESVILLE AIRPORT, AND NEWNANS LAKE 841 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025 MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID 20S. TUESDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID 20S IN THE MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 20.