GaWx

Pivotal UK may be getting abused by weenies. 12Z warmer 2m/thicknesses at 132 vs 0Z at 144

12Z UKMET looking slightly warmer and slightly delayed with slightly lower pressure for the high as precip approaches. Snow line should be further north. Not good for my area because that could lead back to a mainly heavy ZR if there’s any wintry.

-2/12/2010 might have come very close in SC. I suppose Hilton Head and nearby did not have measurable and likely not 1”+ though. -Also close but no cigar in GA in parts of 1/1977 and perhaps not quite the required 1”+ for all of SC/GA 2/25/1914 even though SAV had 0.5” of sleet 2/25/1914. -But did your source miss 2/13-14/1899 for 1”+ in all of SC/GA? -SC/GA likely came pretty close in parts of mid 2/1895

0Z EPS snow mean: nothing like operational Members:

0Z Euro snow: one of jackpot winners is believe it or not Gainesville to Jacksonville! @pcbjr

Because the icestorm threat here is still persisting, I’d like to be prepared just in case. I don’t have a generator and don’t plan to buy a portable at the last minute (if I even can). What other measures could I take? Is there something I can get just to power my fridge? What about something like a “portable power station”? Would they be very helpful? I see that Amazon has them and I can’t get them fast. Can I plug my fridge into that? Also, for recharging my phone, what about something like that or instead maybe something less powerful like a small charging hub? If I got that would it help to get several instead of just one in case the power were to be out for days? I could always return extra ones I don’t use within 30 days I believe. Any advice would be appreciated!

I had been saying to give it through today (6 days out) to see if the common NW trend would finally get going as days 7-6 were when last week’s storm finally got a good trend NW and missed the coast. Well, it still hasn’t happened after all of these days. Clock is ticking fast now. This is at a crossroads. This is an uncommonly powerful, large and very cold/Siberian high in the picture this time. Last week it weakened rapidly to a falling apart 1020s high by the time it got close. In stark contrast, the Siberian high is progged to maintain 1040s to 1035 til when it is nearby to our north. With that in mind, with tonight’s 0Z runs being only within ~5.5 days, and with ensemble means getting beefier in the deeper SE, the chances of a NW trend finally taking away the deep SE/coastal significant wintry precip are dropping pretty fast now. If there’s none by 12Z tomorrow (~5 day point), this Jan 21-2 threat is likely going to be a rare storm that includes the SE coast in a significant way and not just affect well inland. If the coast ends up remaining in the winter storm picture and it’s mainly ZR, then that would mean a large portion of the well inland SE would probably have lots of snow and sleet. But if the coast were to end up with mainly snow, the heavier snow may not extend all that far inland…probably not more than 150 or so miles.

Sleet vs snow is a similar concept. 2” of sleet won’t typically melt faster than 6” of snow. I suspect it may even last longer on average. Sleet can be tough to melt in the shade!

Tony, I’ve been able to find only two other instances with at least about that much here: late Jan of 1922 (predecessor storm to tragic Knickerbocker Theatre storm in DC) and late Feb of 1914 (that one also had a decent amount of sleet). Early Jan of 2018 had a good bit but less than half that and thus limited outages. So, yes climo says not impossible but heck no unless we get a 100 year storm.

Jacksonville, FL has a whopping 0.7” on the 18Z GEFS for 1/21-2! That’s near 10 times the normal annual. Just unreal. This run has easily the heaviest snow mean yet for coastal SC to Jacksonville to Gainesville to the coast of LA! Nine members have snow at Jacksonville! @pcbjr

NWS CHS for SAV: don’t see this every day MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY MOSTLY SUNNY. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. TUESDAY PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 20 IN THE MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 20. WEDNESDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 20 IN THE MORNING.

Only one of our 3 TV stations seems to be talking about a threat Tue-Thu. NWS CHS: AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY AND BEYOND, THE FORECAST BECOMES EXCEEDINGLY TRICKY AND ALSO POTENTIALLY VERY IMPACTFUL. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS BROADLY AGREE THAT WE WILL HAVE VERY COLD AIR COINCIDENT WITH PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OR OFF THE COAST. VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION, PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS, AND SPECIFIC IMPACTED AREAS. ALL SCENARIOS ARE ON THE TABLE, INCLUDING SEEING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

It wasn’t good with sfc features for last week’s storm.

12Z JMA appears to be a major winter storm 1/21-2 with major ZR deep SE.

Unfortunately the majority of this on the 12Z Euro AI is ZR in my area with temps just at or just below 32, 850s at +3 to +5, and north winds keeping the warming from the ocean away. Not good.

An amazing (for 6 days out) 16 of 20 (80%) of 12Z GEPS members have some form(s) of wintry precip in our area 1/21-2! Of those 16, 9 are primarily ZR and 7 are primarily snow/sleet. On 12Z GEFS, it is 14 of 30 that have wintry precip in our area during 1/21-2. But 10 of these 14 are mainly snow and sleet vs only 4 mainly ZR. 12Z EPS snow mean: highest I’ve ever seen for us with it ~1.5”! Out of the 50, ~1 in 4 (13) have 1”+ of snow at Hunter! It doesn’t show sleet or ZR. 22 of the 50 have snow.

Something of that sort happened in this area in January of 1800. I’m not making this up. Was a multi-hundred year snowstorm obviously.

A weak low crossing central FL (not N FL) like the 12Z UK does is what we want to root for. History of past winter storms here agrees.

12Z UKMET gives us 2” of qpf with our temperatures at 32 or lower from very late Mon night (1/21) til 24 hours later (near sunrise Wed morning 1/22)!! The good news is that a fair bit is snow is implied. The 850s are only +1 to +2 for the first 9 hours or so (which tends to be cold enough for sleet more often than ZR) before dropping to potential snow levels of 0C to as low as -1C for part of the time. So, this may all be almost all sleet and snow on the 12Z UKMET and would be historic. Of course the odds are low (standard disclaimer out 144 hours), but we’re getting closer!

If there were to actually be a winter storm here early to mid next week, I wouldn’t at all be giving up on snow or sleet here despite the higher risk for ZR: 12Z GEFS looks quite nice for us and much of the deep SE…check out the 0.4” way down at Jacksonville: 11 of the 30 members give us snow within 1/21-2 with 8 of the 30 at 1”+ with 5 of those 2”+! So, this isn’t just 1 or 2 crazy members skewing it. This is about as good a look we’re going to get on the GEFS while still out 6 days: @pcbjr @Awesomesauce81

12Z CMC: no thank you for this modeled disaster of 1.78” of ZR at Hunter/2.32” at SAV but fortunately this is highly likely overdone and also CMC has a low level cold bias, especially considering that the low passes by not too far offshore: Sleet:

12Z GFS has Brooksville (BKV way down in west C FL) getting rain at 10AM on Tue (1/21) while at 35F with a dewpoint of 29F. That shows how close a call even way down there this could be if there is anything 1/21:

Snow for SE coast CHS NE late on Tue night/Wed morning (1/22): so GFS is back to coastal wintry within 1/21 like the prior 10 we’re before today’s 6Z blank:

12Z GFS has snow for a portion of coastal SC and NC Tue night!

I’m ok with it too as painful as it is to see this.