GaWx

If so I have no access to them.

0Z Icon is significantly colder run vs runs from 12/24 hours ago. Coldest of season by far 1/20-1 and bone dry/no nearby surface low. Has lows on 1/21 of 10/9 at ATL/RDU! The plumbers would be busy! Minn/SPaul highs below 0F 1/19-20! Chicago barely gets above 0F on 1/20! Most of TN highs on 1/20 only in teens! Unlike those stupid cold Euro runs for last week, this frigid run actually seems possible due to Siberian high.

Here are the op model surface low positions as of 1/1-3 runs for 1/9-10 that I saved. They all verified poorly since the actual track was much further NW than the models showed: 12Z 1/1 Euro 0Z 1/2 GFS 12Z 1/2 GFS 12Z 1/2 Icon 12Z 1/2 CMC 12Z 1/3 Icon 18Z 1/3 Euro-AI Some models shifted NW on 1/3. Then on 1/4 (6 days before the storm), just about all modeled well down into the Gulf tracks that gave SE coast significant wintry precip were abandoned as the NW trend continued, including in the ensemble means. So, that means the NW trend was strongest 6-7 days prior to the 1/10 storm. So, looking ahead to 1/21 and projecting similar timing, I’ll be looking to see if the far SE tracks giving significant coastal wintry are largely abandoned 6-7 days prior to 1/21 or on 1/14-5. So, by Wednesday we’ll see what happens. Could this time be different? Of course it could. What is different with this one? - More runs develop the low not til offshore the SE coast as opposed to mainly developing in the Gulf for the 1/10 storm. - A much colder Siberian high. For example, Chicago’s coldest preceding and during the 1/10 storm was only down to 14F. Progs for 1/20 are for 15-20F colder - Related to this, the surface high coming down is progged to maintain much stronger intensity just before and on 1/21. Most model runs at this forecast point had at best a rapidly weakening 1020s high to the N or NE of the 1/10 storm, which verified pretty closely. The Euro had even weaker with an Alberta clipper low to the north on many AI runs. Remember that? In stark contrast, the progged high to the north of the upcoming threat is mainly 1038-1045 or 15-20 mb stronger! - So, we’ll have to see how this evolves.

Here are some comparisons between 1/10-1 as of 1/2 and possible 1/21-2 (11 days later) as of today (1/13): 1. 12Z EPS: 1/2 run for 1/10-11 1/13 run for 1/21-2: eerily similar in GA/SC and a bit more in NC 2. 12Z GEFS: 1/2 run for 1/10-11: 1/13 run for 1/21-2: significantly more N GA, N SC, and NC with ~same S GA and S SC

1/21-22 seems to have the strongest potential, similar to 1/10-11 for last week’s storm.

The 18Z GFS tells us that this remains at least a potential close call for ~1/21!

It is far from certain whether or not there actually will be super cold in the SE. Just go back to last week, when super cold was showing on a number of runs at about this point in advance, especially the Euro. The SE ended up with much below normal cold along with a widespread winter storm but no super cold.

This is pretty consistent with prior expectations. Regardless, a BN temp winter is almost assured now.

Another cold week coming next week (1/20-6) per the last two Euro Weeklies runs. Then the cold is done per many runs in a row. Will it be drier than normal for most? Latest ensemble means have gotten drier. Current 2m: H5:

I assume you mean Jan of 2014, which I acknowledged would still be colder. I didn’t consider Feb 2015 because I was looking only at Jans.

The EPS mean precip during 1/21-3 has dropped a lot since 24 hours ago:

12Z EPS snow mean:

12Z Euro very cold and dry 1/20-22. Cold likely overdone of course, which in this case would be a good thing.

This GEFS run’s mean was colder than most of the recent ones for 1/20-22 at H5 and 2m.

More plausible than that insane run but still highly improbable of course with it being 9 days out and showing an extremely rare solution per long historical records. If this were say only 5 days out and runs were pretty consistent, it would be a much different story though even then still far from being set in stone, of course. Keep in mind that there are only 3 pretty similar analogs with this degree of snowfall deep to the SE coast to the 12Z GFS over the last 50+ years: 2/1973 12/1989 1/2018 So, only about once every 20 years or so.

Just remember that the 12Z GFS solution showing major wintry precip in the SE is merely an improbable option because it is but one of many possibilities still 9 days out. Just think of it as an active ensemble member. And don’t forget about a handicap when you realize there’s a cold bias.

In contrast to that clownish video circulating on Facebook yesterday that sounded like “The Day After Tomorrow”, this one done yesterday by pro met. Jason Simpson in Birmingham is excellent. He shows yesterday’s 12Z Euro snow, but puts it into proper perspective: https://m.facebook.com/reel/633732655893596/?referral_source=external_deeplink

A general model cold bias that includes the SE US is always a factor that should be considered because it often (though not always) leads to less cold air verifying vs what is shown, say, 8-10 days out (like what happened last week…keep in mind those extreme runs with widespread single digits to middle teens) and consistent with that storm tracks correcting to reality further NW (like also just happened as instead of offshore the SE coast it was mainly well inland). But every case is different. So, we’ll see. For one important thing, how strong will the strongest 1/19-23 Arctic high actually be? If it ends up there’s a 1050ish coming down that maintains itself well into the 1040s for quite awhile and keeping in mind Siberian cold would be involved, that would favor deeper into the SE wintry precip possibilities and thus affect more people though it could also end up dry. I’d rather have the big high and see how it plays out.

0Z EPS: has some big ones

I’ve got someone still texting me at 1AM because of yesterday’s ridiculous 12Z Euro! What will the next 12Z show? Stay tuned!

0Z Euro: Brick for your sanity don’t look at either the run or the rest of this post. Please! The extreme of extreme SE winter storms is completely gone. Wow, what a shocker! Thank goodness, he seems to have gone to bed.

Are you sure? From this FB link, here are some quotes from him: “To cover the entire E US in snow and ice”; “Coldest January in over 300 years”; “Last well into Feb giving us 2 weeks of freezing temperatures, something we’ve never seen before“; “This will be the biggest PV to ever hit the US” I’m not making this up. Listen for yourselves.

I heard from a friend that this is circulating on FB. Has anyone seen this clown? https://m.facebook.com/reel/1624958838114564/?referral_source=external_deeplink

Today’s Euro weekly for 1/20-26 is easily the coldest for that week in the E US as for the first time the cold is actually centered there: It’s because H5 is significantly different from prior runs with the SE ridge now centered further offshore and the W ridge much closer to the W coast instead of offshore. Thus the PNA is higher: As a result, the precip map’s strongest wet signal in the E US has shifted SE suggesting any Gulf lows might move further south over FL and then further offshore the SE US than earlier runs suggested:

Brick, there hasn’t been a SE storm of this magnitude AND breadth on record going back 150 years! This is like 2/1973 on steroids and 2/1973 without steroids was incredible. So, odds of this combined with the massive N FL Pan/deep SE/coast icestorm verifying closely are infinitesimally tiny. There’s a better chance for me to decide to run for Pres of the US and that’s something I have less than zero interest in ever doing. We all should keep in mind that a NW trend though not a lock is always likely if there is a storm around then due to cold model biases. It isn’t really a NW trend but rather the models typically being too far SE in the first place because the atmosphere is modeled colder than reality.