GaWx

I just posted this elsewhere at this BB: The jury is obviously far from a decision for the 2025 season as a whole. Yes, YTD NATL ACE has been very low (1.5 vs 1951-2024 avg of ~9) through this morning with it at 64th highest out of the last 75 seasons. And being that low this far into the season does increase the chance for a quiet rest of season somewhat, which I’d love to see for a change. And yes, there are two new areas in the EPAC that may develop this week. However: 1. The EPAC is currently still at only 28 ACE vs a normal of 47 meaning it’s now ranked at only 39 of the last 55 seasons. 2. We have weak La Ninalike conditions, which are typically conducive for an active rest of season. 3. The following other relatively quiet through now NATL seasons (under 5 ACE vs normal of 9) were active the rest of the season: Season: Total season’s NATL ACE 1969: 148 and that was El Niño (don’t have EPAC pre-1971); only 1 storm as of now (not an H) with 17 others still to come and not til Aug 10th+ 2017: 225 and EPAC was then way up at 74 (12/54); no H yet with 10 H/6 MH still to come Aug 7th+ 2019: 132 and EPAC ACE was then up at 45; only 2 storms as of now with 16 more to come and not til Aug 20th+ 1980: 148 1999: 176; only 1 storm through now (not an H) with 11 others to come and not til Aug 18th+ including 5 MH 2004: 227 and that was El Niño; only 2 storms through now with 13 more to come Aug 9th+ including 9H/6 MH 1998: 181 and EPAC was then up at 55 (14/54); only one storm as of now (not an H) with 13 more to come, including 10 H and not til Aug 19+ 1955: 158 (don’t have EPAC pre-1971); only 2 storms through now (no H yet) with 9H/4 MH still to come 1967: 125 (don’t have EPAC pre-1971); only 1 storm as of now with 12 more to come and not til Aug 28+ From this list: 1969, 2017, 2019, 2004, and 1998 should especially get one’s attention. 4. The Euro Weeklies, which overall did well last year with its several week out predictions, have been forecasting an active August for the last 5 days. 5. The various ensemble runs have been active both in the MDR as well as off of NC. The current TWO is already highlighting two areas. 6. The MJO is headed for phases 1 and 2, two often active phases during August. ——————— Edit: In summary, whereas the very low ACE as of this morning is typically a slightly bearish indicator the rest of the season as a whole, my points 1-6, above, suggest that an active rest of the season is at the very least still a reasonable possibility and may actually still be favored.

The jury is obviously far from a decision for the 2025 season as a whole. Yes, YTD NATL ACE has been very low (1.5 vs 1951-2024 avg of ~9) through this morning with it at 64th highest out of the last 75 seasons. And being that low this far into the season does increase the chance for a quiet rest of season somewhat, which I’d love to see for a change. And yes, there are two new areas in the EPAC that may develop this week. However: 1. The EPAC is currently still at only 28 ACE vs a normal of 47 meaning it’s now ranked at only 39 of the last 55 seasons. 2. We have weak La Ninalike conditions, which are typically conducive for an active rest of season. 3. The following other relatively quiet through now NATL seasons (under 5 ACE vs normal of 9) were active the rest of the season: Season: Total season’s NATL ACE 1969: 148 and that was El Niño (don’t have EPAC pre-1971); only 1 storm as of now (not an H) with 17 others still to come and not til Aug 10th+ 2017: 225 and EPAC was then way up at 74 (12/54); no H yet with 10 H/6 MH still to come Aug 7th+ 2019: 132 and EPAC ACE was then up at 45; only 2 storms as of now with 16 more to come and not til Aug 20th+ 1980: 148 1999: 176; only 1 storm through now (not an H) with 11 others to come and not til Aug 18th+ including 5 MH 2004: 227 and that was El Niño; only 2 storms through now with 13 more to come Aug 9th+ including 9H/6 MH 1998: 181 and EPAC was then up at 55 (14/54); only one storm as of now (not an H) with 13 more to come, including 10 H and not til Aug 19+ 1955: 158 (don’t have EPAC pre-1971); only 2 storms through now (no H yet) with 9H/4 MH still to come 1967: 125 (don’t have EPAC pre-1971); only 1 storm as of now with 12 more to come and not til Aug 28+ From this list: 1969, 2017, 2019, 2004, and 1998 should especially get one’s attention. 4. The Euro Weeklies, which overall did well last year with its several week out predictions, have been forecasting an active August for the last 5 days. 5. The various ensemble runs have been active both in the MDR as well as off of NC. The current TWO is already highlighting two areas. 6. The MJO is headed for phases 1 and 2, two often active phases during August. ————- In summary, whereas the very low ACE as of this morning is typically a slightly bearish indicator the rest of the season as a whole, my points 1-6, above, suggest that an active rest of the season is at the very least still a reasonable possibility and may actually still be favored.

Invest 95L has been designated for the area off of NC, which may actually be just one of two potential systems to develop off of NC this week (the 2nd potential one is what the 18Z gfs went gaga with):Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:1. Western Atlantic (AL95):A non-tropical area of low pressure located along a frontal boundary about 180 miles off the coast of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for this system to potentially become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm today or on Monday while it moves east-northeastward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of North Carolina. Environmental conditions become less conducive for development after Monday. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.2. Central Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in the next day or two. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of the wave during the middle to latter part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. ——————— Meanwhile, the latest Euro Weeklies continue to suggest that quite an active August is favored.

We’re about to get a big hit it appears with heavy rain and much CTG lightning. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 443 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 645 PM EDT. * AT 443 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WINDSOR FOREST AND HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD. AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD FALL THROUGH 645 PM, RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE URBAN FLOODING. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE CLOSED ROADS DUE TO FLOODING. HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... WINDSOR FOREST, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, COFFEE BLUFF, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, MONTGOMERY, GARDEN CITY, THUNDERBOLT AND VERNONBURG. *Edit: I ended up with ~1.6” from late yesterday afternoon through very early this morning.

Yes due largely to collisions with seabreeze along with high moisture levels. I’m talking about my home, which is not as far inland as the airport and thus gets slightly more on avg…see darker shading nearer to coast. Our area gets avg summer rain that’s double+ avg winter rain. July/Aug are our 2 rainiest on avg. Normal July rain:

12z UK: 3rd run in row w/MDR TD moving WNWNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.8N 41.9WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 07.08.2025 120 14.4N 43.3W 1009 280000UTC 08.08.2025 132 16.2N 46.1W 1009 291200UTC 08.08.2025 144 17.6N 49.2W 1010 280000UTC 09.08.2025 156 19.7N 52.0W 1011 281200UTC 09.08.2025 168 21.2N 55.3W 1011 34

AAM finally going - (Ninaish):

0Z UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 16.9N 48.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.08.2025 156 16.9N 48.9W 1012 25 0000UTC 09.08.2025 168 18.4N 51.5W 1012 26

That’s too detailed for me. So, I’ll leave those month long details to you. The only thing I’m saying is to watch for a midmonth TS/H NE Car to US.

I just saw the new Euro Weeklies and am sticking with 5 NS. They are notably active again for mid to late August.

Fwiw, I predicted 5 August NS (vs active era avg of 4) in the basin based mainly on the last few days of active Euro Weeklies along with MJO.

Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z/12Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas. It could easily look very different as early as tomorrow. 12Z EPS is somewhat ominous/more active for the Bahamas/CONUS vs the 0Z EPS during Aug 12-16. *Potential* mid August threat from NE Caribbean to CONUS as it appears now: *Edit: I’m counting 50% of 12Z EPS members with a TC from this AEW. That’s quite high from this far out for the often rather conservative EPS. In addition, there are 5 TC members from the followup AEW threatening the NE Caribbean to Bahamas.

An east west band of scattered thunderstorms, some heavy, has popped up from W of my area to offshore. I started hearing thunder a little while ago and now it is raining at varying intensities. Edit: I ended with ~1” for the day, which I think is the heaviest since July 13th.

Thanks. In case you didn’t see it, the map says it is vs 1991-2020 climatology.

It’s surprising that the Arctic is blue. Do you know why?

For the first time this season, the latest UKMET (12Z) has a TC in the MDR (moving WNW): NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.3N 40.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 06.08.2025 120 10.3N 40.8W 1013 25 0000UTC 07.08.2025 132 11.4N 42.4W 1012 25 1200UTC 07.08.2025 144 13.0N 44.1W 1012 26 0000UTC 08.08.2025 156 14.8N 46.7W 1012 28 1200UTC 08.08.2025 168 16.1N 50.7W 1011 27

Please post your August of 2025 observations as well as other current or recent conditions at any location. At the end of this month, met. autumn will finally be here! Also, this is per climo the first of the 3 most active months tropically speaking. Hopefully, we have a much calmer season around these parts than the devastating 24! If any moderator sees this, please pin this and unpin the July ‘25 obs thread.

I had 8.25” of rainfall in July. That’s a bit above the July climo average of ~6-7” for the area. Most of this fell just during July 9-13, during which I had moderate flooding in my garage as well as some water splashing under the door and into my foyer. The hottest I saw on my thermometer was 98.7.

August ACE forecast: Today’s Euro Weeklies vs yesterday’s (using 2005-24 base) 8/4-10: 0.9 vs 0.8 8/11-17: 1.5 vs 1.9 8/18-24: 1.6 vs 2.1 8/25-31: 1.2 vs 1.1 Overall, I’d call this slightly less active than yesterday’s run but still a good bit more active than 2005-24 average ACE for August as a whole.

For the 2nd run in a row, the UKMET (12Z) has a TD from off the SE US from a frontal zone with no notable strengthening and with very slow movement. This run has it initially moving NE/NNE before turning to the WSW and then SW a couple hundred miles off NC: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 32.9N 73.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.08.2025 72 32.7N 72.9W 1010 26 0000UTC 04.08.2025 84 33.1N 71.9W 1009 26 1200UTC 04.08.2025 96 33.9N 70.8W 1010 29 0000UTC 05.08.2025 108 34.3N 70.4W 1012 27 1200UTC 05.08.2025 120 35.1N 69.4W 1014 30 0000UTC 06.08.2025 132 35.8N 69.2W 1014 31 1200UTC 06.08.2025 144 36.4N 69.1W 1015 30 0000UTC 07.08.2025 156 36.0N 69.8W 1015 31 1200UTC 07.08.2025 168 35.5N 70.4W 1016 29

The UKMET is back to having a TD form on the 0Z. But unlike yesterday’s 0Z, which developed the current central MDR wave that was moving NNW to threaten the SE US, this one forms on an old front just off the SE US coast. After forming, it crawls NNE to just offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast remaining as a TD: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 32.0N 75.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.08.2025 96 31.4N 75.7W 1010 29 1200UTC 04.08.2025 108 32.1N 74.8W 1012 25 0000UTC 05.08.2025 120 32.1N 75.0W 1013 25 1200UTC 05.08.2025 132 33.1N 73.9W 1015 23 0000UTC 06.08.2025 144 34.3N 73.9W 1015 23 1200UTC 06.08.2025 156 35.7N 73.6W 1014 30 0000UTC 07.08.2025 168 37.6N 73.0W 1012 28 *Edit: 0Z Euro is a bit similar to 0Z UKMET but with just a very weak sfc low rather than a TD. It similarly goes up the US E coast just offshore and toward Cape Cod and Maine.

Though 8/4-10 dropped likely partially related to little support for the current MDR AEW, today’s Euro Weeklies are slightly more ominous than yesterday’s for August’s ACE as a whole: % of 2005-24 averages: 8/4-10: 80% (slightly lower than yest.) 8/11-17: 190% (slightly higher than yest.) 8/18-24: 210% (much higher than yest.) 8/25-31: 110% (same as yest.) Taken as a whole, these probably imply a prog of ~38 ACE for next month fwiw. Please don’t shoot the innocent messenger!

Good news regarding microwave scans:

Followup: Unlike the 0Z, the 12Z UKMET has no TD.

For those who don’t realize this, the Midwest and just downwind have been helped high tempwise in recent decades by larger crops holding in soil moisture better and raising RH. These larger crops have partially been due to CC, itself. But lows haven’t been helped by this.