GaWx

I won’t be getting anything like that but I’d welcome any cooldown of consequence to closer to normal!

There’s a sudden popup heavy thunderstorm that just formed only a couple of miles from me. It’s hard to tell whether or not it will spread out or generate others nearby to give me rain. The other possibility is for it to move toward me although I’m leaning against that right now based on subtle hints and H5 model progs suggesting it might move to the E. Regardless, steering winds are very light and flash flooding is a concern for wherever it lingers. 1:20 PM update: initial cell drifted away but it lead to more developing including at my location. Temp plunged from 92 to 80 within just a few minutes in the rain! 3:30PM update: I received only ~0.05”. Temp rose back some but only to 82 thus far.

KSAV today had a high of 100. That’s the first 100+ since 6/23/22 and the first 100+ in July since 2019. The HI peaked at 112. I don’t know what my high was but it was at least 98.

At 10AM today, Tampa is 2 F cooler than 24 hours ago and the wind is light from the S instead of from the seabreeze pinning rare N. Both of those along with climo point to very little chance of another 100 F high there today. @bluewave

I’m not Chris, but I already know the answer because I followed it closely. Tampa tied Jacksonville, Gainesville, and Leesburg for the hottest of major FL reporting stations yesterday with 100. This tied a daily record at JAX and was easily a new daily record at Leesburg. Lessburg’s tied with 1990 for a monthly record, but July records go back only to 1959. Orlando was “only” 97. Edit: it’s interesting that Tampa was tied for the hottest in FL yesterday despite being one of only very few stations in FL having not hit 100 before yesterday. It took just the right (or wrong) wind (a very rare for July light NE wind to keep the seabreeze away) along with few or no clouds to make it happen as the tweet Chris quoted mentioned. Even a strong NE wind likely wouldn’t have allowed it because that would bring in too much cooling over from the Atlantic side.

Based on hourlies, it’s possible that either or both of Augusta and Columbia had lows of 80. If so (we should know later this morning) and if convection doesn’t bring lower temps than 80 the rest of today, this would mean: -at Augusta (Bush) it would tie the warmest low for any date since 1945 and would be the warmest July low since 80 in 1990 -at CAE it would tie for the warmest July low since 1893 Edit: CAE’s lowest this morning was, indeed, 80. Let’s see whether or not later convection at or near there cools it to below 80 before midnight. But Augusta’s low turned out to be 78.

Jacksonville (tied daily record), Hogtown, and Leesburg (new record for date) joined Tampa at 100 for yesterday’s high.

I adjust with the model consensus, with each model adjusted for what I perceive to be its bias. My latest prediction of a -0.4 ONI low was based on July runs. I’ll re-examine in August.

La Nina’s are strange in that although Febs average (I believe) the warmest anomalies of DJF, sometimes the Febs have had an intense cold plunge.

1933-4, with the very cold Feb, was moderate La Niña. 1898-9 was cold neutral and had the historic Feb cold. Edit: Both gave rare winter storms here in SAV in mid Feb!

Highest I saw on my thermometer today was 98.7. It’s still 96.6. Highest at Hunter was hottest of the year so far with ~100 w/HI of ~110. Highest at KSAV was 97 with HI of ~107.

Consistent with your image, the OHC keeps plunging:

Thanks, Chuck. I have for quite awhile been very bullish for a RONI based La Niña, which I think is more telling than ONI. My latest prediction for ONI though is still at -0.4. Also, it will be interesting to see how low the MEI gets.

I earlier had forgotten to check Naples. They like Tampa before today also hadn’t on record reached 100. Their alltime highest on record (back to 1942) is 99, which they missed by just one degree today! But they tied their alltime record July hottest with their 98.

The new Euro Weeklies have a notable increase in forecasted activity for two weeks earlier than the post above addresses, Aug 4-10:

1. Thanks to a popup thunderstorm, FAY plunged from 100 and an HI of 114-5 at 1PM to 83 at 2PM! 2. Tampa hit 99 at 2PM. 99 ties the alltime record hit 6/26/2020 and 6/5/1985! RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2025 ..DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT TAMPA A NEW DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 99 DEGREES HAS BEEN SET AT TAMPA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE DAILY RECORD FOR JULY 27TH OF 97 DEGREES SET IN 1996. THIS ALSO BREAKS THE MONTHLY RECORD FOR JULY OF 98 DEGREES SET ON JULY 20, 1942 AND JULY 21, 1942. THIS RECORD HIGH OF 99 DEGREES ALSO TIES THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER SET IN TAMPA BACK ON JUNE 26, 2020 AND JUNE 5, 1985. RECORDS BEGAN IN TAMPA ON APRIL 1, 1890.

1. Fayetteville, NC, already hit 100 at 1PM! The HI was 114! 2. Tampa has on record never hit 100 with records back to 1890! Other than the Keys and St. Pete, all other major FL stations have hit 100 with most several times. Even Miami hit 100 in July of 1942. Edit for correction: I forgot to check Naples. Their alltime highest on record is 98, which they tied today. Tampa was 97 at 1PM today, a whopping 7 hotter than 24 hours earlier! Unlike yesterday at 1PM, winds today are from a hot inland NE direction. Skies are mostly sunny. They’ll have a chance to barely hit 100 though the forecast is for upper 90s. There’s a 597-8 dm H5 high centered over S GA.

It’s not natural for farmers to try to grow crops as large as possible wherever they live? Also, think of all of the lives saved worldwide with a larger supply of food from larger crops worldwide. Regarding the higher dewpoints resulting from the larger crops holding in the soil moisture, don’t forget that the higher dewpoints are negated by lower temps during the most dangerous time of the day than would otherwise be the case.

Hey Liberty, Don’t forget that Lakepaste is talking about global cooling since a year ago rather than for your area or even the US overall.

Hey Liberty, Why are larger crops in the Midwest a bad thing? I’ve never heard anyone say that before. Larger crops means more food for the world and also lower high temperatures there and probably somewhat downwind in summer.

“These oceanic heatwaves are not caused by man’s input into the atmosphere as Mr. Gore would like you to believe.” -Joe Bastardi in 7/26/25 Weather Bell free to everyone “Saturday Summary” video I just heard it. He still insists it’s due to undersea volcanic activity. Edit: Later in the same video he showed numbers indicating the planet is 1/4 of a degree C cooler this July vs last July. Is this true?

The global avg air and sea surface temps, dew points, and sea level are all at or near record highs. OTOH, I don’t know about “the droughts” being the worst. Actually, widespread droughts in the Midwest have notably lessened in frequency and severity over the last 30 years due to increased crop sizes likely thanks at least partially due to climate change. Avg dewpoints there in summer have increased significantly.

In contrast, 1935-6 was one of the coldest for the E 2/3 US as a whole of any since 1895-6:

Today’s Euro Weeklies maintained an active Aug 18-24 with ~145% of 2005-24. That translates to ~13 of ACE being progged vs base of ~9. Should that week have ~13, that would imply the likelihood of an H somewhere in the basin. Where does this run imply would be the most likely general location of the track of this H? All highly speculative obviously but fwiw it suggests track may be from at or just N of N Leewards NW to either near Bermuda or W of that between Bermuda and NC and then recurving to between Cape Cod and 1000 miles E of there aiming toward Newfoundland. Midpoint of highest density of tracks starts at 20N, 60W. Then track points NW to 30N, 70W. Then NNE to 40N, 65W. Highest at risk from this prog ~Bermuda:

Euro Weeklies ACE for August 18-24 up to 140% of 2005-24 avg. Edit: Also note the green box in ATL is now larger than even the WPAC green box: