GaWx

12Z GEFS through 1/11 despite the more suppressed surface low mean vs the GFS is still not good as it is similar to the meager 6Z: cold air is lacking meaning easier to get plain rain if any precip.; runs of recent days had 5-10 times this much snow

Compare 12Z GEFS low positions (mainly much further south) with much further north GFS: GEFS members: only 21, 17, 1, and 3 as far north GFS:

12Z GEFS much more suppressed than 12Z GFS as of 168 hours meaning it may be a too far north outlier: 12Z GEFS mean: 12Z GFS:

12Z CMC opposite of 12Z GFS: very cold and dry

That surface low over SW GA, especially with no wedge, isn’t going to get the job done for much of the SE in most cases. Too far north. Need something like Icon has.

Ensembles have been trending warmer and less wintry as I’ve shown with GEFS maps.

12Z GFS has low move from Pensacola to Savannah. That’s too far north unless the air to the north is very cold, which it isn’t due to a relatively weak high moving offshore and warming SE surface winds, not CAD. Remember the runs bringing the low over central FL peninsula? This is much further north.

12Z GFS low track coming in further north…not good for snow potential for good portion of SE. ATL-AHN get no SN/IP through 189 and hardly even get any ZR! Trends other than on Icon not good recently.

12Z Icon has light snow far S MS/AL and far W FL Panhandle (delayed from prior run): That leads to a very close call in far S GA with light precip falling and 31 F: looks like ZR or IP there as 850s are well above 0C (at +2C to +4C): Icon doesn’t show ZR/IP

Hey Tony, great to see you posting! Hope all is well with you and of course your world famous moles, too!

Compare the 6Z GEFS to what this EPS from 0Z on 1/28 had through Jan 11th: 6Z GEFS: many areas have only 10-20% as much snow as they had on the 0Z 1/28 EPS! The warning signs shouldn’t be minimized regardless of potential turnaround back in the snowier direction. I’m not mad but I like to at least be realistic and recognize all trends, good or bad:

I’d prefer to look realistically at trends whether good or bad. The current trends are for much of the SE not going in a direction I like to see. There’s still time to reverse, of course. And I just saw the 6Z GEFS snow through 1/11: it is also pretty lousy: 6Z GEFS through 1/11: nothing good about this compared to recent days: 18Z GEFS through 1/11 had a good bit more and even it had much less than some earlier runs:

I just woke up and saw the 6Z GFS. It is plain and simple a lousy run if you want wintry precip in the SE US. What happened? And whereas the Euro AI continues to have generous precip with system 2, it keeps warming (higher 850s and thicknesses) as the track of the low goes further north. On the 6Z, ATL gets very little wintry precip of any kind! Am I looking at these right? Am I really awake?

0Z EPS snow through 1/11: is better than 0Z GEFS in NC

0Z GEFS through 1/11 only: less than prior 2 runs Edit: keep in mind there’s also IP/ZR in addition to this

0Z Euro for Jan 10-11:

0Z UKMET like the 12Z UK/Euro is totally dry for 1/8-10 over the SE.

A NW trend is common and it coincides with the cold bias of most models in the E US. If I were betting, I’d bet on it most of the time. The cold bias leads to teases for the Deep South due to tracks too far SE that usually don’t verify. There are many more teases than the actual rare wintry precip events for down in this neck of the woods. When they do occur, they’re often just a T. That’s why I’ve said most likely nothing or at most a T for this event for this area. This keeps me grounded and keeps disappointment when it does the normal and doesn’t occur minimal at worst. The reason for the cold bias of models is debatable but some pro mets believe it is due to the very warm west Pacific and the models not handling it well.

The 18z Euro AI based on 850s (mainly near +2C), 1000/500 mb thicknesses (mainly ~550 dm during bulk), and a lot of qpf (~1”) appears to give ATL mainly IP and ZR (~0.95” liquid equivalent) assuming it remains <32F along with some snow near the end (~1/2”). Model says Atl-AHN will be close to 32 with 34 max.

18Z GFS precip types for 1/10-11: qpf: ATL to CAE: mix with mainly ZR (~0.5-0.7”) and ~1” snow/IP

No need to worry. Our area will most likely get either nothing or just a trace no matter what the wintry form. 150 years of weather history tells me that getting measurable wintry here is typically very difficult. The models sometimes tease us and more often than not end up as nothing. More recently, we’ve not even had a T of wintry in 7 years (longest wintry drought at least back to 1880s). Measurable since 1990: 3/93 light snow at end (from “Storm of Century”), 2/96 (light snow from upper low), 2/10 (rain changed to snow at end), 1/14 (light ZR and IP), and the big one, 1/18 (ZR, IP, SN). So, 5 times in 34 winters or once ever 7 winters since 90-91. A trace would be a reasonable goal with only the HOPE, not the expectation, of more. I’m actually not expecting anything per normalcy. But that doesn’t mean I don’t hope because at some point it will finally happen again.

12Z EPS snow through 1/11: similar to slight decrease This was 0Z through Jan 11th: Comparing the above map to the new run (12Z) below through Jan 11th shows similar in some places and decrease in others: Full new (12Z) run: slight increase N GA/much of SC meaning an increase after Jan 11th there while fairly similar overall NC:

-12Z UKMET has no split flow and thus no wintry precip in SE -12Z Euro some changes but it’s fairly similar to last 2 runs in not having much wintry precip in GA/SC/NC outside of mountains through 360: 12Z Euro similar to 12Z UKMET still no H5 split flow providing moisture unlike Icon and CMC. 12Z Euro similar to UKMET has all H5 flow down to the Gulf coast at crucial time we’ve been following from WNW to W (dry) But 12Z CMC (like 12Z Icon) has dry WNW to W H5 flow only well to the north (still supplying the cold) while having moist WSW flow Gulf to Deep South (aka split flow) that flows over low level cold and thus wintry precip there:

It’s all just digital at this point. Nobody has anything yet. 12Z GEFS through Jan 11th: more than recent runs N GA to NW 2/3 of NC:

Indeed, here’s yesterday’s Euro Weekly map for 1/20-6 with a -PNA forming: Accompanying 2 meter temps: coldest shifts W/NW from E US to N Plains/Rockies/Midwest/Ohio Valley; note also that E US still mainly BN: After that week, the run has the subsequent 2 weeks NN in E US/no warmth.