GaWx

Another KSAV high in the low 80s. That makes 5 of the last 9 days! It’s like mid to late April on these days! AC has been running. Another day in low 80s is forecasted tomorrow. Then hopefully no more for quite awhile/we’ll see!

Regardless of whether or not the SE gets any more significant wintry threats late this month, this progged cooldown would be important for other reasons not the least bit being Mother Nature being totally screwed up by what’s looking like the warmest 1st half of Feb in many decades in much of GA/SC/N FL. So I’m rooting hard for some cold nights and cool days. Much of NC may be saved from that by some cold wedged rainy/mixed? days Mon-Wed.

Good news is that a refreshing colder change for SE as a whole has been progged last few runs for 2/17-23:

KSAV is well on its way to warmest 1st half of Feb since at least 1957 with 10+ AN projected! That’s norm for end of Mar/early Apr! Euro Weeklies have been all over this.

Thanks, Jerry. Unfortunately all Amtrak trains rest of today are booked. 1st train not available til 6:30AM tomorrow (S Station). I can suggest that but would she have trouble on roads getting to S Station via Uber, taxi, or whatever?

Thanks. I forgot to add that her parents live in NYC and she happens to be moving back there. So, if she misses flight to ATL, it’s actually ok. She’d forget ATL trip and just stay in NYC.

Update on cousin’s BOS to ATL JetBlue tomorrow 7AM flight: canceled; -she’s now flying JetBlue out of BOS ~11:20 AM and gets to JFK ~12:40PM; then changes planes and would leave JFK ~2:35PM for ATL So, as long as delay in leaving BOS 11:20AM not more than, say, an hour, she’d make the JFK 2:35PM flight. She may not have checked bags. If not, maybe she’d have more than hour to spare. I assume she’d have better chance to make JFK to ATL flight if no checked bags. No telling if JFK will have delays leaving 2:35PM Sun. If she misses JFK flight, she’ll just forget going to ATL and stay in NYC, where her other home is. Opinions about this plan?

Is this considered a “large event” for Logan? I assume there aren’t too many of these in an average winter. I just read this from BOS: ALL GOOD SIGNALS FOR EFFICIENT SNOW MAKING WHICH WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (~10PM-3AM). THIS LEAVE A 4-5 HOUR PERIOD FOR BETTER SNOW RATES TO ACCUMULATE SNOW QUICKLY. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A "SLAM DUNK" WARNING CRITERIA EVENT. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS HERE. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, IT BRINGS A DRY SLOT. If heavy snow rates end at 3AM, perhaps that will allow enough time to clear a lot out 3-7AM and at least prevent cancelation?

Today’s for Feb 10-16 to compare to yesterday’s with darkest 5”++:

I was asked if a relative’s JetBlue flight leaving Logan ~7AM Sunday morning (to ATL) will likely be canceled. Anyone have a feel for this? Next JetBlue flight to ATL not til 4PM (too late). Thanks in advance.

JetBlue. Do you know much about their approach to heavy snow? Would they even have a choice in a storm like this? Also, I had been given the wrong info earlier. She’s leaving from Boston at ~7AM Sun, not NYC. It sounds like Boston may have worse conditions due to heavier snow (5-8”) and it ending later than in NYC. I just saw that JetBlue’s next flight to ATL isn’t leaving til 4PM. That would be too late.

Oops, my bad. She’s leaving from Boston at ~7AM Sun, not NYC. I may check in N.E. forum to see if anyone has a feel for whether or not Logan would likely have lots of cancellations and whether or not she should try to get a flight closer to lunchtime. It sounds like Boston may have worse conditions.

Any opinion about the chances of a flight being canceled flying from NYC ~8AM Sunday? Should she go ahead and try to see if she can reschedule for a few hours later instead of keeping her flight? She can probably leave as late as ~noon from NYC on Sunday and still make her trip. She’s flying to ATL. Thanks in advance. Edit: Never mind. She’s leaving from Boston at 7AM Sun, not NYC.

In addition, a good number don’t want a major icestorm for obvious reasons and would thus rather have 33+ rain with heat/power if that’s the only realistic alternative.

Here’s today’s Euro Weeklies for Feb 10-16 to compare yesterday’s to:

Another warm day in this area with low 80s and upper 50s dewpoints as of 4PM. Mid springish.

I don’t have another link.

Indeed. Here’s Jan of 2025 using 1951-80 as the base: note how much of the US lower 48 was cold (well predicted several weeks in advance by Euro Weeklies by the way) and that it was the largest cold area on the globe:

Latest Euro Weeklies qpf for Feb 10-16: 3rd shade of green is 2-3 times normal (~2-4”). Hopefully there won’t be bad flooding. I could sure use some of that extra qpf down here though even here I’m just into shade 2 (would mean ~1.2” here).

Latest Euro Weeklies Feb 10-16 qpf: 3rd shade of green means 2-3 times normal for that period! I could use that down here.

It doesn’t count unless Euro AI also has same one.

Yep, flooding is a big concern. Here’s 12Z EPS mean:

Boston has had 13.9” of snow this winter to date (low vs their climo). I know, boo hoo lol. If this EPS were to verify, they’d add a whopping 22” over just the next 13 days or 1.5 times their amount to date!

I don’t know how to describe this other than calling this pure insanity: is this real? Of course the NW trend could mean much lower, especially close to the coast, would verify. So, for now I’m not buying this much will actually fall: