GaWx

They never said it was going to be 20 BN all next week. They had 1-2 days that cold (in and near 1/10-11). Their coldest Jan 6-12 run is this one (see below), which had mainly 12-15 BN in the SE. My point is that the Weeklies called for a cold period that week going back to forecasts issued 3 weeks ago after they had warmth in late Dec, which verified well. We’ll see how cold Jan 6-12 actually ends up being, of course, but it still looks solidly BN. Jan 10-11 are looking to come in less cold per recent trends but still solidly BN. It makes perfect sense to warm up a lot then per MJO, La Niña history, and indices’ trends looking well ahead.

Enjoy the cold while we have it because the Euro Weeklies, which have done very well overall recently (with the current cold that followed the prior warmth…all well predicted), today have it pretty mild throughout most of the lower 48 states Feb 3-16. Also, La Niña Febs are more often than not on the mild side.

Today’s Euro Weeklies, which have done very well overall recently (with the current cold that followed the prior warmth…all well predicted) have it pretty mild throughout most of the lower 48 states Feb 3-16.

More on average strength of Miller A lows causing major Atlanta snow or sleet, which is a rather modest 1008 mb Complete list of major 32 ATL SN/IP caused by Miller A's: estimate of lowest SLP while in GoM/near Gulf coast (other 7 weren't Miller A) (sub 1000 bolded) 2/12-13/14: 1003 1/9-10/11: 1008 2/12/10: 997 1/2-3/02: 1007 3/13/93: 976 1/18/92: 1011 1/7/88: 1018 1/22/87: 998 3/24/83: 1002 1/12-13/82: 1007 2/17-18/79: 1018 3/11/1960 1011 2/15/1958 1001 2/26/1952 1004 3/2/1942 1002 1/23/1940 1006 1/29-30/1936 1009 3/14/1924 1000 12/11-13/1917 1020 1/28/1904 1017 2/23/1901 1012 2/11-12/1899 1017 2/15-16/1895 1017 2/11-12/1895 1012 12/24-5/1894 1020 (barely discernible) 1/18-19/1893 1008 12/3-6/1886 1013 2/12-15/1885 1005 1/23/1885 1003 1/7-8/1884 1010 12/29/1880 1009 1/1/1877 1003 In ascending order of SLP: median/mean are 1008; only 3 of 32 sub 1000! 976 997 998 1000 1001 1002 1002 1003 1003 1003 1004 1005 1006 1007 1007 1008 1008 1009 1009 1010 1011 1011 1012 1012 1013 1017 1017 1017 1018 1018 1020 1020

Here’s the mean SLP location of the lows having produced major Atlanta snow or sleet: crosses north central FL near an Ocala to St. Augustine line….so a “Southern Slider”. Also, note that the SLP mean anomaly isn’t overly strong….more about that later. Actually the mean anomaly of the Plains high is stronger per this map. Amped up lows (the Storm of the Century notwithstanding) usually aren’t good for ATL to AHN due to too much warm air being introduced and often a too far NW path associated with them. So, when you get amped up storms, they’re usually rainstorms.

12Z EPS through Jan 11th: notable snow for good portion of area on only ~10 (20%) of members: enough to keep hope alive?

Agreed. But not looking good for most of the SE as of recent trends. Next week could very well be a big nothing-burger. But still it is early enough for a reversal. Icon, a good model, gives me hope. But if a nothing burger, we’ll survive just fine and we’ll have this to laugh about in the future. Irony is that you were about the most negative originally and could turn out spot on!

The storm you may be getting could very well be a plain rainstorm per model trends. A strung out mess would be far more interesting to me (like 12Z Icon actually) at this stage than an amped up too far north rainstorm. It is what it is. It is already predetermined what will occur but the models aren’t smart enough to know, which makes for interesting drama. I’d hate for the models to know in advance. Then there’s be nothing to discuss and debate forecasting wise.

12Z Euro once it finally gets precip in has rain in the SE due to a cutter Really bad trends continue on the consensus. Icon an exception. CMC cold but dry. UKMET if projected ahead was likely going to be too warm most places due to projected too far N track of low and warming thicknesses ahead of it.

12Z Euro has hardly any snow over most of SE through 234:

12Z GEFS through 1/11 despite the more suppressed surface low mean vs the GFS is still not good as it is similar to the meager 6Z: cold air is lacking meaning easier to get plain rain if any precip.; runs of recent days had 5-10 times this much snow

Compare 12Z GEFS low positions (mainly much further south) with much further north GFS: GEFS members: only 21, 17, 1, and 3 as far north GFS:

12Z GEFS much more suppressed than 12Z GFS as of 168 hours meaning it may be a too far north outlier: 12Z GEFS mean: 12Z GFS:

12Z CMC opposite of 12Z GFS: very cold and dry

That surface low over SW GA, especially with no wedge, isn’t going to get the job done for much of the SE in most cases. Too far north. Need something like Icon has.

Ensembles have been trending warmer and less wintry as I’ve shown with GEFS maps.

12Z GFS has low move from Pensacola to Savannah. That’s too far north unless the air to the north is very cold, which it isn’t due to a relatively weak high moving offshore and warming SE surface winds, not CAD. Remember the runs bringing the low over central FL peninsula? This is much further north.

12Z GFS low track coming in further north…not good for snow potential for good portion of SE. ATL-AHN get no SN/IP through 189 and hardly even get any ZR! Trends other than on Icon not good recently.

12Z Icon has light snow far S MS/AL and far W FL Panhandle (delayed from prior run): That leads to a very close call in far S GA with light precip falling and 31 F: looks like ZR or IP there as 850s are well above 0C (at +2C to +4C): Icon doesn’t show ZR/IP

Hey Tony, great to see you posting! Hope all is well with you and of course your world famous moles, too!

Compare the 6Z GEFS to what this EPS from 0Z on 1/28 had through Jan 11th: 6Z GEFS: many areas have only 10-20% as much snow as they had on the 0Z 1/28 EPS! The warning signs shouldn’t be minimized regardless of potential turnaround back in the snowier direction. I’m not mad but I like to at least be realistic and recognize all trends, good or bad:

I’d prefer to look realistically at trends whether good or bad. The current trends are for much of the SE not going in a direction I like to see. There’s still time to reverse, of course. And I just saw the 6Z GEFS snow through 1/11: it is also pretty lousy: 6Z GEFS through 1/11: nothing good about this compared to recent days: 18Z GEFS through 1/11 had a good bit more and even it had much less than some earlier runs:

I just woke up and saw the 6Z GFS. It is plain and simple a lousy run if you want wintry precip in the SE US. What happened? And whereas the Euro AI continues to have generous precip with system 2, it keeps warming (higher 850s and thicknesses) as the track of the low goes further north. On the 6Z, ATL gets very little wintry precip of any kind! Am I looking at these right? Am I really awake?

0Z EPS snow through 1/11: is better than 0Z GEFS in NC