GaWx

Tony, Get a load of the 0Z Goofy! Holy cow, I think Goofy had a little …no, a lot…too much: And snow on April 8th, Tue of Masters Week! Is this real? Is this because of the current very strong stratospheric reversal?

The chill is intensifying for Masters week

And now today’s Euro Weeklies for 4/7-13 have cooled a lot due to a stronger -NAO…chilly Masters may be ahead: Yesterday’s run: Today’s run:

As a result of this strengthening -NAO, today’s Euro Weeklies have cooled a lot just since yesterday’s run for 4/7-13 (Masters Week): Yesterday’s run for 4/7-13 Today run for 4/7-13

Is there going to be a chilly snap during the upcoming Masters just as has occurred in some past Masters? Be ready to break out the coats one last time then just in case? @dsauror others have an opinion?

I just watched the Thursday daily Joe Bastardi video (he’s now at Weather Bell for those who don’t know). Even he, who himself has hyped at times in the past, said that this Daily Mail headline was hype to get extra clicks. He thinks Accuweather should respond with a complaint that this is not what they forecasted, which was a range of 3-6 TSs or stronger. That’s far from forecasting 6 Hs smashing the US! When even JB is complaining about hype…. @cleetussnow

This is a perfect example of hype by Daily Mail. From your link: Six hurricanes to smash the US as forecasters warn of blockbuster season But from Accuweather’s actual forecast: Between 13 and 18 named storms are expected in 2025, including 7-10 hurricanes, three to five major hurricanes that reach Category 3 strength or higher, and three to six direct U.S. impacts. That’s a range of 3-6 tropical storms or stronger hitting the US. So, Daily Mail took Accuwx’s 3-6 TS+ hits and turned it into saying that Accuwx is predicting 6 hurricanes hitting the US. Terrible hyping to get clicks. https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-season-forecast-2025/1757562

Why do you think global ACE has averaged well BN recently despite GW to record highs?

I’ll take nice, boring, low dewpoint weather like we’ve been having. Great for outdoors!

A teeny weeny bit of rain today

Hogtown, the radiation capital of north-central FL, had a 37 low today, which was 14 BN and tied for the lowest for this month! The 2 SAV stations weren’t nearly as cold with their 42s. The walking conditions here the last 3 days have been fabulous!

Lows: KSVN 39, KSAV 41, Hogtown 40

The on and off tree damage along a 50 or so mile stretch of I-16 was like nothing I’ve ever seen over such a large area. It looks like the damage from many dozens of tornadoes!

Very well said! The only thing I’d change is to say 90-100% accuracy is when “wx forecasting” rather than “wx” becomes boring.

Hogtown, FL, had another chilly low (41, which is 9 BN). It rose a whopping 42 to a high of 83, which is 7 AN! The day averaged 1 BN.

Hogtown’s official low was, indeed, 39 (11 BN). But today’s high was way up at 79, 3 AN! It looks less cool tonight, but low 40s are forecasted for Thu and Fri nights there.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1220 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. A non-tropical area of low pressure located about 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing gale-force winds and a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Additional development of this low is not expected as it moves northward to northwestward into an environment of strong upper-level winds and dry air tonight and Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2025, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Lows are forecasted to get down into the low 40s way down in Hogtown the next two nights as well as at least one more night late week. Edit: They made it down to 39! @pcbjr

“Erin go bragh” from the location of the South’s biggest St. Patrick’s Day celebration. So, everything greened up quickly today. A windy, cool, and sunny St. Patrick’s Day here as it’s only 62.9 here now.

I vote with you to pin this one and absolutely agree with you to unpin 2023-4. But I also vote to leave 2024-5 pinned at least through April to discuss the lingering effects of the now very weak/warm stratosphere and other things regarding the latter part of the current heating season. @ORH_wxman @jburns

Today’s release of the weekly Nino 3.4 SSTa, which is for the last week (centered on March 12th), came in at +0.3C. Over the prior 6 weeks from the week centered on Jan 29th (when it was -0.8C), it has warmed a whopping 1.1C. This is by far the strongest warming for that particular 6 week period on record (records back to 1982). The next fastest warming is only half that (~+0.55C) set in both 2023 and 2011! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Indeed, I am! I find wx data that approaches or sets new records, like for these zonal winds, extra interesting to say the least. Other examples: record obliterating DJF +PNA for non-Nino ‘24-‘25, -5 AO in Feb ‘25, 1/21-2/2025 heaviest sleetstorm on record in my area, etc. My professional and educational background is statistics related in general, which I’ve enjoyed following since being a kid. Since I’m a big wx enthusiast in addition to being a big statistics enthusiast, wx stats are a natural for me to enjoy following.

It’s unanimous for a 2nd and 3rd strong dip (both would set new daily records on and near those dates):

KSAV had beneficial rains of ~0.5” at KSAV today. Much of the rain was light to moderate, a good soaking rain. There was thunder a few times and it was quite windy since last evening, but there was nothing severe in my area. The rain clears out just in time for tomorrow’s St. Patrick’s Day parade, one of the largest in the US. Thanks to the luck of the Irish, it will be sunny, breezy, and cooler tomorrow making for a near perfect day! Edit: my rainfall on 3/16 ended up at ~0.75”

There is SST data of the tropical Pacific back to the 1800s. So, based on that data, scientists have been able to retrospectively classify each year’s ENSO at least roughly. This is a link to Eric Webb’s Nino 3.4 table, which goes way back to 1850: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html Here’s a table from the JMA back to 1868. The JMA region isn’t the same as Nino 3.4. It uses a variation of Nino 3 (4N to 4S rather than 5N to 5S) and averaged over 5 months instead of 3 months: https://data.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5