GaWx

2024 has had 2 CONUS H landfalls by Aug 5th. Since 1851, there have been only 8 other seasons with 2+ by then with 7 of those 8 having exactly 2: Year: # of CONUS H LFs by 8/5; # for 8/6+; *ASO ENSO ONI -2024: 2; ?; ? -2020: 2; 4; -1.2 -2005: 2; 3; -0.0 -1959: 2; 1; -0.3 -1936: 2; 1; -0.3 -1934: 2; 1; -0.1 -1916: 2; 2; -1.4 -1909: 2; 3; -1.0 -1886: 4; 2; -0.8 -So, only one season (1886) since 1851 has had more CONUS H landfalls by 8/5 than 2024 -All 8 seasons had at least one 8/6+ CONUS H landfall with a range of 1-4 and an average of 2.1 -The 5 seasons with 2-4 8/6+ CONUS H landfalls (avg of 3) had an average -0.9 in ASO -The 3 seasons with only one 8/6+ H landfall averaged -0.2 in ASO -Most likely the 2024 ASO RONI will be much closer to -0.8 than to -0.2, which implies we may be headed to ~3 more CONUS H landfalls this season for a rare total of ~5, a scary thought; only 1886, 1893, 1985, 2004, 2005, and 2020 had 5+ (5-6) *ASO: used RONI for 1950+ and Webb ONI pre 1950

After that 4 day plunge of 0.5C, the OISST had quite the deadcat? bounce of nearly 0.4C:

As the Debby center moved to the SE offshore finally putting us on the backside, winds increased some and steady mainly moderate rains resumed about 1.5 hours ago after little rain since late last night. I had been at ~8.5” for the storm before this. We’ll see how much gets added from this and more to come tonight.

As the Debby center moved to the SE offshore finally putting us on the backside, winds picked up and steady mainly moderate rains resumed about 1.5 hours ago after little rain since late last night. I had been at ~8.5” for the storm before this. We’ll see how much gets added from this and more to come tonight.

I was asked about how it looks for Fort Liberty (formerly Ft. Brag) near Fayetteville. I told her that the heaviest rain would likely be Wed night and Thu with only mainly light rain prior to that. I also told her that Fri didn’t look too bad with it the storm mainly done by then. She said someone who lived there was visiting their mom in FL and had planned to return on Thu. I told her to tell him to come home on Fri instead. Does this sound about right? Any opinions would be appreciated.

Oops, I didn’t realize this thread was here. Here’s a repost of what I said an hour ago in the Aug obs thread: I estimate that I’m at 8.5” so far from Debby (over last ~30 hours) with only ~1/2” since 2AM allowing good progress on drainage. If we were to not get too much more from this point forward (where I’m leaning now), I’d be near the low end of the range of predictions, which had a pretty good amount for today and tomorrow. As of last night I had guessed at least another 4” between then and Thursday. Still an 8.5” rain is enough to qualify as a very big rain event due to its rarity and likely is the largest since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. Also, some nearby areas (Effingham and Jasper counties) got 10-11” per CoCoRaHS. The storm is currently centered just E of here along the coast about to be offshore. Winds and rain are very light near the storm center.

I estimate that I’m at 8.5” so far from Debby (over last ~30 hours) with only ~1/2” since 2AM allowing good progress on drainage. If we were to not get too much more from this point forward (where I’m leaning now), I’d be near the low end of the range of predictions, which had a pretty good amount for today and tomorrow. As of last night I had guessed at least another 4” between then and Thursday. Still an 8.5” rain is enough to qualify as a very big rain event due to its rarity and likely is the largest since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. Also, some nearby areas (Effingham and Jasper counties) got 10-11” per CoCoRaHS. The storm is currently centered just E of here along the coast about to be offshore. Winds and rain are very light near the storm center.

I estimate that I’m at 8.5” so far from Debby (over last ~30 hours) with only ~1/2” since 2AM allowing good progress on drainage. If we were to not get too much more from this point forward (where I’m leaning now), I’d be near the low end of the range of predictions, which had a pretty good amount for today and tomorrow. As of last night I had guessed at least another 4” between then and Thursday. Still an 8.5” rain is enough to qualify as a very big rain event due to its rarity and likely is the largest since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. Also, some nearby areas (Effingham and Jasper counties) got 10-11” per CoCoRaHS. The storm is currently centered just E of here along the coast about to be offshore. Winds and rain are very light near the storm center.

Yep, 14 runs to be exact through the 12Z. But the 12Z is slightly further N and the 6Z and even moreso the 12Z GEFS mean is further N than the operational. Also, fwiw being that it’s an inferior model, the 12Z JMA 72 adjusted back N with it in VA vs yesterday’s 12Z JMA 96 in E C GA. So, as of now the GFS will likely end up wrong, which history all along strongly suggested. 12Z UKMET: landfall Georgetown ~8AM Thu 8/8 and then heads N into VA (~50 miles E of 0Z) followed by NE turn to NE US though not as strong there as 0Z had 12Z Euro: landfall just S of Georgetown ~3AM Thu followed by NNW move into WC NC and then NE move into interior NE US, a little W of UKMET

I’m wild guessing another 4-6” over the next couple of days, which would give me an amazing storm total of ~12-14” should that occur. The only other storm/event likely comparable that I can recall would be Matthew of 2016. But it isn’t Debby, alone, that’s impacting the flooding. During the prior 2.5 weeks, I got a whopping ~10” from afternoon/evening or convection, about 2.5 times the normal for that period. So, I’m now ~18” just within the last 3 weeks and with several more inches likely from Debby, which should get me to >20” for just a 3 week period!

0Z 8/6 UKMET is finally out: LF Georgetown, then goes to Charlotte but then turns NE and strengthens back down to 990 mb and ends in N Maine. I’ve continued to get on and off heavy bands of rainfall the last few hours along with a few gusts likely as high as 40-45, about the strongest here so far for Debby. I believe I’ve now exceeded 8” for this storm (similar to KSAV) with that during just the last 18 hours though street flooding isn’t quite as bad as before due to an earlier lull in the heavy rain. I bet the drainage canals are full!

0Z Euro: again further SW with a LF barely N of CHS. This is the first run since the 12Z 8/3 run that didn’t hit Georgetown or further north. The 0Z UKMET seems to be running very late.

Believe it or not, the 0Z GFS is the 12th in a row that is coming back W into GA on THU AM! Also, after yesterday’s 6Z GEFS was the first run in days to have more members finally getting away from that kind of thing, the last 3 runs have come back S again. The GFS suite actually has had a little bit of company since 12Z today: the 12Z JMA and now 0Z JMA are also stalling and then coming W into lower SC. No JMA had done that in the prior days.

What a mess here from TS Debby! There had been a tornado warning that expired an hour ago. Much of the yard and entire patio is covered with standing water. Street flooded. Now this and there’s a very long ways to go before the on and off heavy rain ends. And the strong winds haven’t even got here yet though they’re now picking up. Also Tornado watch extended til 1AM:THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... BULLOCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... EFFINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... EVANS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... LONG COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... TATTNALL COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1130 PM EDT. * AT 532 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETWEEN 2.5 AND 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... HINESVILLE, SAVANNAH, POOLER, BLUFFTON, RICHMOND HILL, REIDSVILLE, GLENNVILLE, TYBEE ISLAND, CLAXTON, PEMBROKE AND DARIEN.

What a mess here! There had been a tornado warning that expired an hour ago. Much of the yard and entire patio is covered with standing water. Street flooded. Now this and there’s a very long ways to go before the on and off heavy rain ends. And the strong winds haven’t even got here yet though they’re now picking up. Also Tornado watch extended til 1AM:THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... BULLOCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... EFFINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... EVANS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... LONG COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... TATTNALL COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1130 PM EDT. * AT 532 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETWEEN 2.5 AND 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... HINESVILLE, SAVANNAH, POOLER, BLUFFTON, RICHMOND HILL, REIDSVILLE, GLENNVILLE, TYBEE ISLAND, CLAXTON, PEMBROKE AND DARIEN.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=qpf_006h-mean-imp&rh=2024080300&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

12Z Euro ens: only ~25% curve back NW CHS south (similar to 0Z) vs ~75% doing that on the 12Z GEFS. Compared to recent Euro ens going NW CHS S: ~33% did on 0Z and ~75% did on yesterday’s 12Z

12Z Euro: LF 50 miles SW of 0Z Euro or 15 miles SW of Myrtle Beach then moving NNW. This is also 100 miles N of the 12Z UKMET hour 96. Then to Florence followed by Fayetteville as it weakens. Extremely heavy rain CHS to MYR.

Does the stubborn, crazy GFS still have support from its ensembles offshore the SE? Yes as 75% of 12Z GEFS members go back NW into the SE coast CHS south. This is similar to prior GEFS.

It is closer to the 0Z Euro track. However, the 12Z UKMET storm is moving so much more slowly that at hour 96 it is still 75 miles SE of CHS. The 0Z Euro 108 hour position was 130 miles to the N of that on the coast at the SC/NC border.

12Z UKMET has major changes from prior UK runs: -much slower movement -now turns E/ESE to offshore GA/lower SC at a time when 0Z was already well up the NC coast -while offshore restrengthens and then turns N with landfall at Georgetown, SC -moves N into E NC TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 26.5N 84.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.08.2024 0 26.5N 84.1W 1001 42 0000UTC 05.08.2024 12 28.3N 84.4W 997 51 1200UTC 05.08.2024 24 29.7N 84.1W 996 40 0000UTC 06.08.2024 36 30.8N 83.6W 1000 32 1200UTC 06.08.2024 48 31.9N 82.5W 1000 39 0000UTC 07.08.2024 60 31.8N 81.7W 997 39 1200UTC 07.08.2024 72 31.4N 79.9W 993 47 0000UTC 08.08.2024 84 31.7N 79.0W 990 46 1200UTC 08.08.2024 96 32.2N 79.0W 988 40 0000UTC 09.08.2024 108 32.7N 79.2W 989 39 1200UTC 09.08.2024 120 33.7N 79.2W 993 42 0000UTC 10.08.2024 132 34.1N 79.2W 996 38 1200UTC 10.08.2024 144 35.7N 78.2W 1001 35 0000UTC 11.08.2024 156 36.7N 76.7W 1003 43 1200UTC 11.08.2024 168 37.3N 73.8W 1002 43

12Z GFS once again comes back into GA coast from off the water. However, CMC has caved to normalcy and goes NE up the SE coast. JMA once again does that, too. UKMET and Euro still not out yet.

Watching for a very rare potential widespread flooding rain disaster much of this area from Debby. The good news is that the last two Euros (6Z and 0Z of 8/4) are progressive to the N/NE instead of the very highly anomalous loop back NW to the coast that the prior runs back to the 8/2 12Z run had been having. However, the 0Z/6Z GFS maintained a loop back inland through GA. Going back to 1851, I haven’t been able to find even just one storm on record that went inland into NW FL from the Gulf and that after going offshore the SE also curved back NW into N FL, GA, or SC. I’ll recheck when I have time. The closest I could find was Easy of 1950. So, hopefully this means the crazy stall and NW turn back into the coast down here won’t occur. If not, the most extreme progged rainfall amounts wouldn’t materialize. Go to Debby thread in tropical forum for more details.

Ed, Pray the hurricanes away, please! 0Z Euro ens: more active than prior runs with 14++ TS+ members that hit anywhere from MX to MS 8/12-14.

0Z Euro ensemble mean follows the operational to some extent with a higher % taking the progressive/much more normal route up/near the E coast than any of the prior 4 runs.