GaWx

If the GFS/Euro end up verifying well, there could be as many as 4 straight Tahiti SLPs of 1019+ during Aug 19-22. I’d be very surprised if there isn’t at least one. Keep in mind that higher Tahiti pressure is favored during developing La Niña. There hasn’t been even a single day of 1019+ since 2010! Tahiti SLP 1019+ since 1991: 1019.55: 1994 (Aug) 1019.1, 1019.44: 1996 (June) 1019.3: 1998 (Aug) 1019.28: 1999 (Aug) 1019.24: 2010 (July) 1019.44, 1019.61, 1019.78, 1019.59, 1019.14: 2010 (Sep) 1019.05: 2010 (Sep) -So, there have been only 13 days of Tahiti SLP of 1019+ over the last 33 years with the record high being 1019.78 (Sep of 2010). - This shows there’s been only one time when there were more than two days in a row of that (Sep of 2010). That was during the longest streak on record, 5 days. - This shows that all were during June-Sep with a mean date of Aug. That makes sense because that’s during their winter, when sfc cold high pressures are at their highest SLP of the year. - There is a decent correlation between high Tahiti SLP periods and an active Atlantic tropics mainly 1-3 weeks afterward. That jibes well with the idea of an active Atlantic sometime between very late this month and mid Sep.

Actually through 2022 BoM interestingly had no discernible bias (some years too warm while others too cold…was a mix that washed out). Then 2023 itself was way too warm as it called for ONI maxes in the high +2s several times vs the actual of ~+2.0 ONI (RONI only ~+1.5). So, I don’t know that I can consider BoM warm biased based on just one year. This is unlike the consistent warm bias of the Euro, especially for non-El Nino years. We’ll have to see how the next few years go for BoM. With this new run down to -0.73 for SON, any warm bias it was showing for 2024 may have finally been corrected. I continue to favor the UKMET somewhat after last year’s stellar performance/steadiness and this year’s steadiness. August UKMET run dipped to -0.94 in NDJ. That may turn out slightly too low. Right now I’m guessing ~-0.75/~-1.25 low for ONI/RONI, in partial deference to the JMA’s rise to -0.56 for its ONI low on its Aug run.

Keep in mind that BoM (AUS-Access) incorporated in this was the prior run, which dipped down only to -0.23 for SON. But as I posted about early this morning, it plunged to ~-0.8 in the brand new run in both Oct and Nov, producing SON way down at -0.73.

While Ernesto is still out there and is near or at its strongest yet continuing to add more ACE (it’s nearing 54 already), ensembles (Euro/GFS) are hinting at a TC in the W basin during the 9-15 day period. It appears to me that AEW(s) coming off Africa ~Aug 24-7 may be the main instigator. I’ve been especially following something coming off ~Aug 24-5, which the last three 12 hourly ICON runs have a surface low from. Also, the Euro Weeklies have been suggesting an increase in activity in early Sep continuing into mid Sept: Euro weeklies ACE forecast vs norm last 7 days (newest far right, which is 0Z of Sunday): 8/26-9/1: 60%/60%/50%/60%/50%/50%/50%; Norm 14 9/2-8: 110%/110%/110%/110%/120%/100%/110%; norm 15 9/9-15: NA/120%/90%/80%/90%/80%/100%; norm 16 So, the weeklies have been pretty consistently calling for ~7 for 8/26-9/1, 17 for 9/2-8, and 16 for 9/9-15. That would get ACE to ~96 after Ernesto finishes at ~56 vs the 1991-2020 avg for 9/15 of 70. That’s if these numbers aren’t underdone. I think they’re more likely underdone than overdone assuming there actually are TCs during this period due to a low ACE bias. In summary, the signal for the last 7 days of Euro weekly runs is for a sharp ramp up to increased activity in early to mid Sep after a somewhat quiet week or so right after Ernesto loses its tropical classification. So, I anticipate only a short quiet period. Then I could easily see something like 3 more TCs late Aug through 9/15, starting as early as with the AEW leaving Africa 8/24-5, with 2-3 of these Hs. That would bring the season to 5-6H by 9/15, well on the way to ~10H for the season. If there are 3H by 9/15, ACE could easily then be ~115 vs a 70 normal, well on the way to a hyper season.

Here's something different and unexpected: the brand new BoM is much colder than the prior run! New run dips to -0.8 in Oct and Nov: Compare that to the run from 2 weeks earlier, that dipped only to -0.3 in Oct!

Line of strong thunderstorms is just crossing through. I ended up with ~0.85”.

I hope you’re right! Although the early season has been active in terms of ACE and hurricanes, I’m not emphasizing that because I’m happy about it. I’m emphasizing it because I like to talk about what has actually happened in comparison to history and don’t like to see misinformation. I love doing statistical based analyses. Nothing would make me happier than to see no more US H landfalls this season. I’d love to see huge busts to the downside vs JB, CSU, etc. I believe that many # of NS forecasts are likely going to bust too high for obvious reasons. Just because I post a lot about hurricanes doesn’t at all mean I’m rooting for these monsters. I post a lot about all kinds of wx (forecasting or obs) whether I want it or not and not just for my location. I had more than enough of a headache from Debby just from a partially flooded garage. I still feel pretty good about my 21/10/5 forecast I made for our contest.

We’ll see what happens down the road. But in the meantime, 2024’s ACE of 51 as of Aug 17th is >triple the normal ACE for the active era for that date of 16 and is 3rd highest since 1951 behind only 2005 and 1980! Aug 17th ACE of 16 averages only 13% of total season mean ACE of 122 for 1991-2020. So, 2024 is well on its way to a potential 200ish hyperactive season. It may not make it and it looks to be quiet for at least a week once Ernesto goes extratropical but it sure has a good head start toward it. Quiet periods even near peak aren’t uncommon in active seasons. https://cyclonicwx.com/climatology/

At Atlanta, 2008-9 had no measurable snow til the heavy wet snow of March 1st that measured 4.2”. This put ATL at 200% of normal and was the heaviest snowstorm since the aforementioned Jan of 2002 4.4” snow. (Temperatures for that winter averaged near normal.) They had only 0.1” in 22-23 with a much warmer winter than 2008-9. ATL has had only 0.6” of snow since Jan of 2018!

The ensembles have been having an intermittent modest signal for possible development in the MDR a few days after a wave comes off Africa ~8/24. So, once Ernesto loses TC status (maybe tomorrow), there will likely be about a week before the next possible TCG. The interim will be a good time to rest up for the potential onslaught coming as most days this month have had a TC bringing ACE all the way up to 51 vs normal of 16, less than 1/3 of that! This is the third highest ACE for the season to date since 1951! There will also be potential for mainly Gulf homegrown late month per JB due to a ridge over troubled waters setup.

Thankfully it never made major status and instead weakened to cat 1. Good news for the residents! As a near coastal resident, I hope this hitting weaker than expected is a sign for the rest of the season though I’m not betting on it. Houston already got hit pretty hard. Hopefully there were no casualties in Bermuda. However, many hundreds of miles away two men unfortunately drowned at Hilton Head due to rip currents being blamed on Ernesto. I already mentioned there being many gusts into the 80s. But I just saw this fwiw: “Earlier Saturday morning, Ernesto brought 89-mph winds and gusts of 109 mph at the National Museum of Bermuda, located west of the capital of Hamilton.” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Museum_of_Bermuda Two day official rainfall was near 7”, with ~5.5” on Fri and ~1.5” on Sat. So, this wasn’t quite to the record going back 75 years. The updated NHC forecast during the early part of the storm impact had it lowered to 6-9” from 6-12”. So, good job there.

This caught me by surprise as the lowest in my area the last 2 days was 70 and the lowest I saw anywhere at major non-mountain locations in SC and GA was 67: I just noticed that Gainesville, FL, tied a record low of 66 yesterday (8/17) morning! Wow! @pcbjr

It didn’t completely unravel. It was no longer a cat 2 but it was still a full fledged cat 1. It became more or less a half-cane as far as convection was concerned but that’s not unusual once a H is N of 30N and was expected per the models. Bermuda had many gusts well into the 80s. And the storm went on for many hours due to a slowdown as it got there as well as it being large. It is just that Bermuda is thank goodness built like a fortress due to being so storm prone and can withstand winds like that with minimal damage. Even the roofs are normally made out of limestone! I’ve seen them with my own eyes on a vacation there. The majority of trees there can handle high winds relatively well. Wave action is limited by surrounding reefs and storm surges effects are limited due to hilly terrain. I thought there might be significant amounts of flash flooding in low areas inland but I haven’t heard about it. I’m waiting to see final rainfall amounts. The expected amount range has been lowered some from 6-12” to 6-9” fwiw. A storm with many gusts well into the 80s is going to wreak much more havoc in other places like in the US. And still most of Bermuda lost power.

The 4.6” snow of early Jan of 2002 was the heaviest single snowstorm at Atlanta since the 5.0” of Jan of 1992. Moreover, there hasn’t been one as heavy since! The Mar 1993 Storm of the Century was much heavier on the northside, however. I got ~7” then and areas further N in the burbs got much more. Although not as much snow, I’m pretty sure that the total 4.4” of Jan of 2011 was from heavier liquid equivalent because the tail end of that 4.4” was from sleet. There was heavier snow in mainly some N suburbs in Dec of 2018. Regardless, 2001-2 was a “snowy” year in Atlanta and in some other portions of the SE due to this one snow (if often takes only one due to our relatively low annual averages).

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com

Yes (although not nearly as strong an -PDO as now) and it also had a +QBO like now, but it also had a very strong -AO/-NAO as well as low sunspots within 2 years after a solar min. Plus GW has been significant since.

Looking well organized on radar with a very impressive NE sector. Batten down the hatches! https://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=500KM PPI&user=

He isn’t weakening and he’s large with TS winds 275 to SE of the center. Very heavy rains expected in Bermuda!

I don’t disagree. My post you quoted lists 3 Niña W seasons with a major Feb-Mar SSW: 2/26/99, 3/20/00, and 2/16/23 vs 2 earlier in the winter (in Jan). So, this suggests there may be a modest lean toward late season vs earlier for Niña W. It also suggests there may be a slightly higher tendency to late major SSW during Niña W vs Nino W, which had only 2 of 5 during Feb-Mar. Nina E is similar to Niña W’s with 3 in Feb and 2 in Jan fwiw though none in March. The 3 in Feb were on 2/11, 2/12, and 2/24. So, Niña W’s late SSWs have averaged 2 weeks later than Niña E’s late ones fwiw. There have been 8 La Niña West winters during the period being analyzed. So, 3 of these 8 had a Feb or Mar major SSW, a respectable portion. Regardless of any tendency toward late vs earlier season major SSW during Niña W, Nino E has had more late. There have been 10 Nino E seasons during the analyzed period. Nino E has had 6 Feb-Mar major SSWs with two seasons having two: 2/23/66, 2/29/80, 2/9/10, 3/24/10, 2/18/24, and 3/4/24 So, if I’m ranking tendency toward a late season major SSW, I’d rank them this way from highest to lowest: Nino E, Niña W, Niña E, Nino W

@donsutherland1 I have even more evidence of major flaws in the WeatherBell versions of the CFS: the following post examines the cold E US WB 0Z 8/16 CFS run maps for 8/16-20 with a focus on DC, which show a whopping 6.5 BN. That compares to the only 2 BN being forecasted by the DC NWS office! Also, I show a WB 0Z 8/16 CFS run map for 8/16-22, which shows a whopping 8BN at DC (other recent runs are similar) vs NN on the avg of the last 12 TT runs! Finally, I show a TT 12 run avg CFS Sep-Nov map with mainly AN E US for autumn, which I’m comparing to cold autumn WB CFS maps that has been posted by the person I was responding to:

1. The WeatherBell versions of the CFS are highly flawed as has been shown repeatedly here. For example, they almost always show a relatively cold spot near Chicago and a much warmer spot in or near N Michigan. 2. To show that the WB 0Z 8/16 CFS (the run you’re showing) is way too cold in the E US, it has DC ~6.5F BN vs 1991-2020 for the next 5 days: The 1991-2020 normal DC for 8/16-20 is a high of 88, low of 71, and mean of 79.5: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx So, the WB 0Z 8/16 CFS for 8/16-20 has DC at 79.5 - 6.5 = 73.0 But per DC NWS predictions, the avg high/low forecasted for 8/16-20 is ~85/70 or a mean of ~77.5 or only 2 BN vs the WB CFS map’s 6.5 BN! DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF WASHINGTON 1032 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2024 REST OF TODAY PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 90. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. TONIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. SATURDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. SATURDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. SUNDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. MONDAY SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. TUESDAY MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. ——————————— 3. To show that it’s not the CFS, itself, but the WB CFS map algorithms that are the big problem, here is the avg of the last 12 runs of the CFS on TT for 8/16-22, which has NN at DC: In stark contrast the WB 0Z 8/16 CFS run for 8/16-22 is off the deep end with a whopping 8F BN there with other recent runs similarly cold: 4. In stark contrast to the cold WB 0Z 8/16 CFS for autumn, here’s the avg of the last 12 TT CFS runs for the upcoming autumn:

Welcome back!

Since 1939 the wettest TC at Bermuda was in October of 1939, which produced 7.35”, which may be less than one would think. Thus the 6-12” amounts being forecasted are quite ominous in relation to history: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Wettest_tropical_cyclones_in_Bermuda This very heavy rainfall risk is high due to a combo of expected slow movement nearby, large size, and (near) record warm SSTs possibly leading to extra high PWATs. 0Z Euro: 8” E end to 11” W end.

Whereas highest winds are important and interesting to follow, keep in mind how large this storm is: TS winds extend out a whopping 265 miles SE of the center. The storm size (based on TS force winds) is ~425 miles from NW to SE. The average is only ~300 miles wide. Due to this large size and projected slower movement near Bermuda, rainfall there is projected by the NHC to be 6-12” on Bermuda with high amounts to 15”. Those would be extreme amounts for them possibly leading to widespread flash flooding.

The 12Z GEFS and EPS continue to have moderate signals for renewed activity that originates from AEWs that emerge from Africa starting 8/23-4. This isn’t surprising considering the overall conditions, the very active early season, and that being during the early part of peak season. So, the break after Ernesto is liable to end up very short (too short if you ask me).