GaWx

I’d love to see him both stick with warmer than normal and also get it right. It would help his long range winter forecasting reputation, which has been hurting recently, immensely.

It is important for folks to not hang onto longer range operational solutions whether strong ( like in this case) or weak (like in most other cases). But *fwiw* the 12Z Euro has a cat 2 moving NNW in the south central GOM at 240.

Good news per this post in the NYC forum: I say good news because it is what the model consensus has been strongly suggesting, is consistent with La Niña/strong -PDO, and his going warmer than normal (I wouldn’t call it “warm” like Brian does) is a huge breath of fresh air for him. He hasn’t had even one (per googling as they’re all out there in Google-land) AN NE DJF since at least 2014-5. They’ve all been NN or colder. The best test of his forecasting abilities would be to stay with AN in the NE and getting it right. The key though is whether he’ll revise it colder later like he did in 2020-1, which was initially ~+3 in the NE but then cooled to NN. I expect @snowman19to faint lol.

Thanks for letting us know as I had been unaware of this. It is refreshing to hear he’s going AN at all in the NE US initially. Going back to 2014-5 (as far back as can be seen when googling, which I just did for each year), I see only one other time he’s gone AN for DJF in the NE US but that was only initially: - It was 2020-1, when he was ~+3: https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2020-21-outlook However, that was revised on 11/25/20 to NN: https://www.weatherbell.com/final-winter-2020-21-forecast So, I can’t find even one year back to 2014-5 when he went and stayed AN DJF in the NE. Thus, the test will be to see if he actually holds onto the slightly AN.

10 (20%) of 6Z EPS members are 990 mb or lower in the Caribbean at 144 hrs! That compares to only 6 on the active 0Z at 150 and is the same as the 10 (20%) of yesterday’s 12Z at 162.

At 8AM, the NHC TWO reduced the central AEW’s chances from 10/50 to 0/40. The E ATL AEW remains at 0/20. The 0Z EPS had a significant number of worrisome tracks for the CONUS fwiw.

We skipped all of Sep already? Wow, time really does fly more and more as we get older! Did you see the still pretty active 0Z EPS? And just for a reminder about yesterday’s Euro Weeklies’ very active late Sept prog: 9/23-29: 150%/norm 10/ACE = 15 (was 12 two days ago) That said, you could end up right for all anyone knows.

Today’s Euro Weeklies update: significantly more active than run from 2 days back 9/2-8: 60%/norm 15/ACE =9 (was 6 two days ago) 9/9-15: 80%/norm 16/ACE = 13 (was 8 two days ago) 9/16-22: 80%/norm 13/ACE = 10 (was 9 two days ago) 9/23-29: 150%/norm 10/ACE = 15 (was 12 two days ago) -So, the 4 week period has risen from two days ago’s 35 (65% of normal) to 47 today (87% of normal). -It not only has incorporated anticipated increased near term activity, but has also increased week 4 -Since week 4 was first released two runs ago, it has been projected to be the busiest week of the 4 despite it having significantly lower normal ACE. -Typically, a reversion to the mean is stronger further out in time. So, a forecast for a whopping 150% of normal way out in week 4 is quite a strong signal that late Sept. is liable to be nasty. Very active wouldn’t necessarily mean high land impacts if we’re lucky, however.

I’m curious. What’s the difference between the MT and the ITCZ? It appears to me that when you refer to MT that you may also be referring to the ITCZ. Going way back to John Hope on TWC, I remember him often referring to the ITCZ as the latitudinal band of clouds (typically at or N of 10N in the MDR). But I don’t recall ever hearing him call it the MT. Are they essentially one and the same? If they are, why is it called two different things?

12Z: -Euro ensemble for 40% AEW: very active with many landfalls CONUS, especially LA to FL Gulf, SE FL, and NC -Slowsky CMC finally finished 2.5 hours late: Cat 1 in SE Gulf moving NW -JMA 1008 low moving WNW just SE of Grand Cayman at end (192)

More 12Z for 40% AEW: -UKMET (goes through 180) still has no TC from this -GFS: back to nothing of note at sfc through Caribbean after 0Z and especially 6Z had something -GEFS: quietest run since 12Z yesterday but still has at least ~6 solid TCs -CMC is still not completely out as of 2:05PM (evidently Mr. Slowsky is running it today): at 210 is a cat 1 H moving NW toward W Cuba -Euro 240: halfway between Grand Cayman and Isle of Youth at 1003 mb moving slowly NW

For 40% AEW: 12Z ICON has a strengthening cat 2 H at 180 hrs 100 miles SE of D.R. moving NW toward there

Last 4 Euro-AI have this go across Yucatan, Bay of Campeche, and back into MX for final landfall. If we were already in a moderate to strong La Niña (per RONI), I’d favor the Euro-AI more. But with it being only weak, I’m hesitant to bet on this far S track as weak Niña tend to have further N tracks. Of course, these are merely generalities and thus any one storm is still going to be all over the map as far as possible tracks.

The ante may be going way up within just a few days after Sept 1 as you alluded to based on 0Z/6Z guidance. A MH is being shown as a legit possibility. So, whereas there won’t be one 8/20-9/1, there may be one by, say, 9/4. How would that affect your analysis? Neither 2000 nor 2022 had their 2nd MH of the season til 9/20+.

0Z/6Z model consensus became much more aggressive with this, which jumped from 20% to 40% at 8AM per the above.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is then forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea during the middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Reinhart

Wow, this is bizarre! To review, 23 straight EC-AIFS runs from 6Z 8/19 through 18Z 8/24 had TCG ~9/2 near the Leewards. Then the next 15 had nothing (not even a weak sfc low) anywhere around there. Now all of the sudden, the 18Z 8/28 EC-AIFS has a weak sfc low (though not a TC) that forms on 9/2 near the central Lesser Antilles (so a little S of those 23 runs).

A Sept. to remember which way though?

I agree that the colder WB control runs are the ones posted by people, including JB. And I know that the TT runs are an average of 3 days of runs (12 runs). But I maintain that the WB CFS map related algorithms are highly flawed based on the many insanely cold WB CFS control runs that I’ve posted about both here and especially in the NY forum. For one, why are there so many record cold winter WB CFS runs in the first place? If there were an apples to apples comparison to other sources’ individual control runs, I’d bet very heavily they wouldn’t be nearly as cold. Secondly, these record cold runs almost always have a warm spot near N Lake Michigan/Michigan while S Lake Michigan is much colder/near record cold! The example below has anomalies of +2C in N L Mich while a mere 250 miles S it is -7C, a difference of 9C/16F, for Jan ‘25! No way! These are big hints that these maps are heavily flawed. And note the multiple areas of -7C/-13F scattered throughout the E US. These are all near all time record cold for Jan. These maps are essentially fake news as far as I am concerned. JB posting them is irresponsible but he doesn’t care. @donsutherland1follows these along with me and agrees with my assessment of JB and these ridiculous WB CFS maps. I used to be skeptical of this but I now believe that these are being used by them for marketing purposes. Also, anything that promotes cold is consistent with JB not believing in AGW as being significant. By the way, he’s now promoting an article stating in its headline that the Atlantic is now cooling at a record pace when in reality the article is saying that only a portion of the equatorial E Atlantic has cooled at a record pace since March. Lmao. He’s now taking that ridiculous misinformation and implying that the globe is now cooling due to decreased underwater seismic activity. I kid you not!

You must mean the fake WxBell frigid CFS control runs. The real CFS runs per TT are mild.

12Z runs for lemon: 1. ICON still has a very weak low that gets into the E Caribbean. 2. Crazy Uncle has a H off the E coast of FL at 240 moving NNW after having nothing the prior two runs and a TS in the SE Bahamas three runs ago. 3. GFS has very little but 20% (6) GEFS have a H with 3 of those hitting or threatening the NE Caribbean. 4. UKMET: nothing classified as a TC through 180 5. Euro: following H7 vorticity one can trace a weak 240 hour W Car sfc low to this. The Control then goes from there into the NC Gulf as a strengthening TS and then recurving. Edit: EPS has a good number of members that are similar to the Control implying there could be a threat to the US gulf coast ~9/9-11.

I’m not predicting that since it isn’t really predictable imho, but it could as the atmosphere cools as it has happened before. 1950 is a good example, with 8 NS forming then including 2 MH. 2020 had 3 MH in Oct, the most of any month that year. 2010 had 5 H that month.

It sounds like they don’t know. Too many different things mentioned. They mentioned the Atlantic equatorial cooling but weren’t clear about that leading to quiet. I’m still suspicious of something not mentioned in this, the record warm middle latitudinal E and C Atlantic. We’ll see whether or not yesterday’s Euro weeklies are going to be right about waiting til late Sept for a more active than normal period. In the meantime I’m enjoying the reduced stress here near the coast thanks to the quiet. If it were to stay quiet for the rest of the season (highly doubtful), I won’t be complaining.

So, is the current significant drop in Nino 3.4 finally going to take ONI down into weak La Niña territory? I suspect it is but it obviously remains to be seen. At least now the SOI is supportive.

I want to make sure you realize that that’s Andy Hazleton’s tweet that I posted, not JB’s.