GaWx

I’m not predicting that since it isn’t really predictable imho, but it could as the atmosphere cools as it has happened before. 1950 is a good example, with 8 NS forming then including 2 MH. 2020 had 3 MH in Oct, the most of any month that year. 2010 had 5 H that month.

It sounds like they don’t know. Too many different things mentioned. They mentioned the Atlantic equatorial cooling but weren’t clear about that leading to quiet. I’m still suspicious of something not mentioned in this, the record warm middle latitudinal E and C Atlantic. We’ll see whether or not yesterday’s Euro weeklies are going to be right about waiting til late Sept for a more active than normal period. In the meantime I’m enjoying the reduced stress here near the coast thanks to the quiet. If it were to stay quiet for the rest of the season (highly doubtful), I won’t be complaining.

So, is the current significant drop in Nino 3.4 finally going to take ONI down into weak La Niña territory? I suspect it is but it obviously remains to be seen. At least now the SOI is supportive.

I want to make sure you realize that that’s Andy Hazleton’s tweet that I posted, not JB’s.

This image illustrates well how the headlines related to the record speed of cooling of the eastern Atlantic equatorial region is leading to confusion. It’s even now leading to at least one well-known pro met. to say it is likely related to decreased underwater seismic activity and means a significant drop in the average world temperature. I think he’s confused and doesn’t realize that this record cooling is for just a very small portion of the Atlantic. Aside: This cooling is leading some pro mets to suspect that the current quiet of the tropical MDR is partially related to this along with record warmth in the middle latitudes of the E and C Atlantic.

Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”: - Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline. - Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow. Any thoughts?

I’m sure that it is still too early to cancel the rest of the season due to uncertainty, but I’m not (and nobody else can possibly be) sure about how busy/quiet the rest of the season will be.

Just joking around because you said you’re close to giving up. It really is way, way too early to “season cancel” imho.

I don’t think it was a good idea to pin the contest thread and no others. This one is way busier and the contest won’t end for several months. Or at least pin this one and the other current tropical threads as well. Other opinions?

It’s strange. Out of the 10 listed day 8 analogs, 8 of the 10 are from El Niño late August or Septembers: 3 from 2009, 2 from 2006, 1 from 1987, 1 from 1972, and 1 from 1953. The only 2 not Nino are from 2003 and 1981, both neutral. So, no dates from La Nina are listed! Is this significant or is it just a not unusual short period that goes against the grain and will go back to La Niña soon?

Nino 3.4 appears to be steadily cooling now: OISST: CDAS: Buoys: E 3.4 is the coolest I’ve seen it and has been cooling rather rapidly the last few days even though it’s still warm in Nino 4: SOIs have gone solidly positive 11 days and look to continue.

Relative ONI, which adjusts ONI based on average global tropical SST anomalies. Right now those are so warm that RONI is over 0.5C colder than ONI. The equivalent RONI is down to ~-0.7, which is weak Niña.

But we’re already weak Niña per RONI.

My ACE forecast that day at another BB’s season contest (it’s still there) was 176. That was based on CSU’s April ACE forecast ending up 34+ too high when they were very aggressive with ACE per the analysis I had done that I just linked too. They predicted 210 in April. 210-34=176.

Here is fwiw a copy of some excerpts from a post I made on 4/7/24 regarding the extremely bullish April CSU forecast: “I see a pretty clear pattern when they’ve gone very active in April: 2. NS days: They’re predicting 115. Prior to this the highest they predicted in April was 85-95 (four times). All four of those progs ended up too high. The highest actual of those four was only 58 and they averaged a whopping 40.5 too high! 3. # H: They’re predicting 11. The prior highest predicted in April was 9 (six times). All of those 6 progs ended up too high by an average of 3. 7. ACE: They’re predicting 210. The prior highest predicted in April were 160-183 (five times). Of these five, all progs ended up too high with even the closest still being 34 too high! The five averaged a whopping 85.8 too high! Conclusion: If I were a betting man, I’d short CSU’s April ‘24’s forecast overall, especially NS Days, # H, and ACE.”

Do you still collaborate with Keith Allen? I still remember you regularly talking about him and many folks here were thus always eagerly anticipating your posts passing along his thoughts.

The Tropical Tidbits CFS graphics are much more realistic imho: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024082700&fh=6

Even if ONI doesn’t get down into weak Niña, RONI almost certainly will be hanging around that area as it already is likely in the -0.6 to -0.7 area and the SOI has turned to solid + recently. RONI could still get down to moderate Niña. MEI also should be Niña if we can keep the SOI +. GEFS is forecasting strong trade winds/solid MJO MC as I assume you know. All of this should support nice cooling in 3.4.

Aleutian ridge is as you know the opposite of what correlates best to a cold winter in SE US, an Aleutian low. Last year many of us E US folks in the El Niño thread were so excited about all of the forecasts for a mean of a solid Aleutian low. A significantly warmer and drier winter is most likely on the way down here vs last winter’s NN to slightly AN. But winter is still my favorite season! And regardless, there are almost always a few cold snaps.

8PM TWO from NHC: Central Tropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system by this weekend into early next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

15/9/4

Surprisingly to me, today’s Euro Weeklies had no uptick in the mean ACE progs. These are based on today’s 0Z extended EPS. Had they been based on today’s 12Z instead, I’m confident there would have been an uptick. They stayed the same for weeks 1-3 and had a slight down tick for week 4. Regardless, the maps showing the areas with enhanced chances of TC strike suggest for weeks 3-4 (9/9-22) the highest chance in and near the SE US for any run since I started following these daily. Also, week 3 has the highest chance of any run for the corridor SE to PR.