GaWx

12Z UKMET: TCG sooner; good bit E of 0Z run and goes over Bermuda NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 17.5N 63.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 14.08.2024 36 18.0N 64.7W 1009 30 1200UTC 14.08.2024 48 19.6N 66.8W 1008 37 0000UTC 15.08.2024 60 21.1N 68.2W 1006 45 1200UTC 15.08.2024 72 24.2N 68.6W 1003 49 0000UTC 16.08.2024 84 25.5N 68.2W 1001 45 1200UTC 16.08.2024 96 26.9N 67.2W 998 52 0000UTC 17.08.2024 108 27.5N 65.9W 997 50 1200UTC 17.08.2024 120 28.9N 65.6W 996 48 0000UTC 18.08.2024 132 29.7N 65.0W 993 45 1200UTC 18.08.2024 144 30.6N 65.8W 992 38 0000UTC 19.08.2024 156 32.0N 65.2W 992 43 1200UTC 19.08.2024 168 34.7N 64.5W 991 48 ——————— 12Z CMC just W of Bermuda and misses Canada. 12Z ICON well W of Bermuda like 0Z.

I see +5+ as being most likely down here in the SE US as per Niña/strong -PDO climo due to a stronger than average SE ridge. The very warm WPAC, itself, also supports a stronger than avg SE ridge. Being as “cool” as the +2 to +4 range would be more likely in the NE US. I’m talking anomalies vs 1991-2020 base.

I just posted this on the main Atlantic Tropical thread fwiw: I still feel good about my 21/10/5 contest prediction. My latest analog based ACE prediction due to having the 5th highest ACE on record back to 1851 as of 8/8 is for another ~160 (total of ~200) with ~75% of that (another ~120) ACE W of 60W rest of the year. Ernesto looks to tack on significant W of 60W ACE. Along with that, I’m thinking another 3-4 CONUS H landfalls, bringing it up to 5-6 for the full season (record high is 6). Look out for the highest SOI since late 2022 near the weekend/early next week. A solidly +SOI tends to be somewhat of a leading indicator of activity/CONUS landfalls. So, if the very active early season along with continued near record warm SSTs isn’t enough, the upcoming strong +SOI may be a further harbinger of things to come late Aug-Sep. I’d love nothing more than my predictions ending up too high. So, I’m not wishcasting.

I still feel good about my 21/10/5 contest prediction. My latest analog based ACE prediction due to having the 5th highest ACE on record back to 1851 as of 8/8 is for another ~160 (total of ~200) with ~75% of that (another ~120) ACE W of 60W rest of the year. Ernesto looks to tack on significant W of 60W ACE. Along with that, I’m thinking another 3-4 CONUS H landfalls, bringing it up to 5-6 for the full season (record high is 6). Look out for the highest SOI since late 2022 near the weekend/early next week. A solidly +SOI tends to be somewhat of a leading indicator of activity/CONUS landfalls. So, if the very active early season along with continued near record warm SSTs isn’t enough, the upcoming strong +SOI may be a further harbinger of things to come late Aug-Sep. I’d love nothing more than my predictions ending up too high. So, I’m not wishcasting.

0Z Euro: weak at PR but much stronger with cat 2 H with center just E of Bermuda followed by a miss of Canada

0Z UKMET: similar to 12Z run going NNE to the W of Bermuda NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 22.7N 71.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.08.2024 84 22.7N 71.1W 1006 43 0000UTC 16.08.2024 96 24.1N 71.2W 1004 47 1200UTC 16.08.2024 108 26.1N 70.1W 1000 48 0000UTC 17.08.2024 120 27.7N 69.8W 998 43 1200UTC 17.08.2024 132 28.8N 69.9W 997 50 0000UTC 18.08.2024 144 30.2N 70.1W 995 52 1200UTC 18.08.2024 156 32.8N 69.3W 993 50 0000UTC 19.08.2024 168 36.4N 68.2W 982 63

0Z ICON way west!

Agreed. My initial best guess for where negative temperature anomalies MIGHT be this winter in our continent would be on or near where the following canonical La Niña based map has them. Of course it likely won’t work out all that similarly due to unpredictability, differing other factors/indices, every winter is different, etc:

Just to clarify, I’m not saying that a hurricane can’t be devastating and deadly to Bermuda. Of course it can. But I’m saying that I think that it is about the, if not THE, safest island country to be stuck on for any particular strength if one is unfortunately stuck. And much safer than where I live for sure! I mean I’d be leaving in many cases if a H is coming here.

Go to PGA Tour thread if interested in Fedex Playoffs contest. See rules there. Deadline: 6AM Thu 8/15

One option is that you can go here and compare the 4 regions for each winter to get a general idea. It wouldn’t take that long: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

I think I figured out why my garage flooded from the very heavy Debby rains: part of my garage door bottom seal had become brittle and thus let in water! It wasn’t torn or out of place. Nothing obvious. Can you believe that something so subtle as that can lead to a partially flooded garage? Something I never in my life ever even thought about. You learn something new every day.

Hopefully they don’t get hit! But if there’s going to be an island country hit and I’m stuck there, I’d want it to be Bermuda (which is actually made up of multiple islands). That’s because their building requirements are extremely strict. Also, most of the these islands are quite elevated just inland well above any potential storm surge. So, one just has to evacuate inland away from the beaches and other low spots and get inside. The island with the airport is quite vulnerable to surge and is one exception. One more thing that helps is that Bermuda has natural protection because much of it is surrounded by reefs. I’ve been there before (not during a storm). I’d actually feel much safer there than here. Here I’d have to evacuate in most cases from a direct hit.

My first pop up since Debby is about to start. Last pop-up was 8 days ago (8/3). There was one very close CTG lightning strike. The rain is very light now after being heavy for awhile. Thankfully, it didn’t last too long. It looks like I got at least 0.5”+, just what the doctor didn’t order. I’ll know more later about the amount. Edit: Ended up 0.65”

12Z CMC also hits Bermuda hard with center passing just to the W. That’s a big shift W for it 12Z GEFS mean shifts E significantly with virtually none near the CONUS and the mean centered on Bermuda. Some brush SE Canada. 12Z UKMET passes 150 miles W of Bermuda while moving NW. *Edit: 12Z Euro passes 150 miles SE of Bermuda with little effect on Bermuda. Then passes well SE of Canada. 12Z EPS centered around Bermuda with only a few W outliers near CONUS.

The models are suggesting a shot at the highest daily SOIs in 2 yrs with +35+ possible in 7-10 days. This is largely due to strong HP S of Tahiti. The GFS suite is saying there could be a 1019+ mb peak there though others are ~1018. There’s some lagging correlation between SOI and Atlantic activity/US landfalls. I fear that this in combo with the near record warm MDR and the very active early season leading indicator could mean a very active and dangerous late Aug and Sept. are on the way.

The models are suggesting a shot at the highest daily SOIs in 2 yrs with +35+ possible in 7-10 days. This is largely due to strong HP S of Tahiti. The GFS suite is saying there could be a 1019+ peak there though others are ~1018.

Other 12Z: ICON: TC PR on 8/14, recurves 69W, heading NE S of Berm at 180 CMC: misses Caribb, recurves 64W, no land hit Euro: TS E PR, recurve 67W, just SE of Berm. as cat 2, goes SE of Canada UK: recurve 69W; turns NW at 28N NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 20.8N 68.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.08.2024 108 20.8N 68.7W 1009 32 1200UTC 15.08.2024 120 24.0N 68.7W 1008 40 0000UTC 16.08.2024 132 25.4N 68.4W 1005 48 1200UTC 16.08.2024 144 26.7N 67.5W 1003 44 0000UTC 17.08.2024 156 28.0N 67.2W 1001 44 1200UTC 17.08.2024 168 28.7N 67.9W 1001 41

These are the seasons with 25+ ACE through 8/8 along with their ACE through 8/8 and their 8/9+ ACE: 2024 41 ? 2008 40 106 2005 74 171 1980 40 109 1966 34 111 1934 28 51 1933 54 205 1926 47 183 1916 42 102 1899 25 126 1887 34 147 1886 36 130 -Avg ACE 8/9+ is ~~105 since 1950 but only ~70 1900-50. Longtime avg likely ~85 -These 11 seasons averaged 140, 55 above longtime 8/9+ avg -Of these only 1934’s 8/9+ was BN -3 were NN. 7 were AN (including 1916 since NN 8/9+ was only ~70 then). 6 were MAN (50+ AN for their time) -So, a fast start like 2024 favors a strong rest of season. These years suggest range of total ACE centered near 200 for the complete 2024!

For record-keeping purposes, here are a few 12Z operational runs (most I had posted in the main thread) fwiw: -12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading in direction of SE Canada. -12Z CMC: recurve E of Bermuda -12Z JMA recurve and moving N near 70W -12Z UKMET: forms NE of SE Bahamas moving N but shortly after turns NW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 23.1N 71.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 16.08.2024 156 23.9N 71.7W 1007 37 1200UTC 16.08.2024 168 24.7N 72.5W 1005 36

12Z EPS: more spread out than 0Z but with mean path a little to the left of 0Z. The operational was fairly close to the EPS mean path. There’s still very little in the Gulf, a few at or near SE FL, some that hit further up the US E coast, and the majority still staying offshore the E US. A decent % of those, however, later hit SE Canada. Still a long way to go and lots of uncertainty this far out.

12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading in direction of SE Canada.

12Z CMC: recurve E of Bermuda 12Z UKMET: forms NE of SE Bahamas moving N but shortly after turns NW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 23.1N 71.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 16.08.2024 156 23.9N 71.7W 1007 37 1200UTC 16.08.2024 168 24.7N 72.5W 1005 36

12Z ICON: recurve from SE Bahamas at 71-2W.

Taking its sweet time: