GaWx

12Z UKMET: first landfall Apalachicola; then would be potential disaster rainfall potential-wise, especially for SC/NC coasts due to a crawl up the coast CHS N and then back inland into coastal NC: this is to the left of the 0Z run, which was offshoreNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 24.8N 84.2WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 04.08.2024 48 25.5N 84.6W 1006 350000UTC 05.08.2024 60 27.4N 85.0W 1005 411200UTC 05.08.2024 72 29.2N 84.8W 1005 420000UTC 06.08.2024 84 30.3N 83.6W 1005 301200UTC 06.08.2024 96 31.7N 82.0W 1003 430000UTC 07.08.2024 108 32.4N 80.9W 999 371200UTC 07.08.2024 120 32.6N 80.0W 995 350000UTC 08.08.2024 132 33.1N 79.0W 993 411200UTC 08.08.2024 144 33.9N 78.4W 993 440000UTC 09.08.2024 156 34.1N 78.3W 994 451200UTC 09.08.2024 168 35.1N 78.3W 996 38

I had just over 12” in July, which is ~200% of normal with 9” of that just during just the last 2 weeks. All of GA/SC/NC was dominated by well above normal rainfall in July mainly from PM thunderstorms. Torrential rainfall from this next week, should it materialize, could be a more serious problem for the SE just due to how wet it has been.

then turns back W w/CHS landfall 228. Torrential rainfall upper GA/SC coasts.

Please post August 2024 obs here. Thanks.

12Z UKMET: slow mover (huge rainfall potential) that moves NNE with a landfall FL panhandle; turns E through N FL and then deepens offshore NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 27.9N 85.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 05.08.2024 96 28.9N 86.2W 1010 33 0000UTC 06.08.2024 108 29.2N 85.5W 1009 29 1200UTC 06.08.2024 120 31.2N 85.1W 1009 29 0000UTC 07.08.2024 132 30.1N 83.8W 1006 26 1200UTC 07.08.2024 144 30.8N 82.5W 1003 34 0000UTC 08.08.2024 156 31.0N 80.4W 997 46 1200UTC 08.08.2024 168 30.8N 79.5W 994 43

Yesterday’s thunderstorm could easily have qualified as severe imho due to high winds near the start. I can’t recall the last time I had a puddle just inside the foyer due to the wind blowing so hard (evidently right toward the door) allowing it to sneak underneath a despite it being a pretty tight space. Also, whereas I didn’t lose power, I saw a good number of traffic lights that were still out a couple of hours after the storm not too far from me. Yesterday’s rainfall at my place ended up at ~1”. That gave me a grand total of ~12.25” for July. What a stormy and wet month! This was the wettest month here since the similar 13.25" during August of 2022 (not that long ago). Just since July 19th, I got ~9.25”! The last time it was this wet here during that short a period was the 10” I got Sept. 1-10, 2022. June through Sept. 10 of 2022 was incredibly wet here, pushing the water table all of the way up, which lead to AC condensation drainage line backup. Inside the house I had a hottest of ~88 for the month and probably for all-time due to no AC for a couple of days.

0Z EPS: another further W shift with almost all in Gulf; most of these landfall NE Gulf but some go to NW Gulf

0Z Euro: stays in Gulf through end of run as a weak system; extreme rainfall just off W coast of FL 0Z UKMET: TC into Mississippi that then turns E

I’m in favor of you starting it since Normandy prefers not to. But I’m just one person. Regardless, I’m confident nobody would object.

You wouldn’t have to worry. The titles usually end up getting changed by others with the power to do so, especially when they get stronger.

I’m in favor of you starting a new thread. This system has been dominating this general ATL tropics thread for several days. The 18Z EPS mean track shifted west a lot from the 12Z with the vast majority of tracks in the E half of the GOM with most pretty weak.

From potential very slow movement I’d be more worried about extreme flooding from very heavy rainfall than dramatic intensification.

Due to much faster movement than recent storms, the strong effects from this one lasted only ~15 minutes. However, the wind from this at the start was probably the strongest yet of the many July thunderstorms here. The rain was torrential and the combo of that with wind strength/direction actually blew in some water under the door into the foyer, highly unusual. The short duration prevented major street flooding. I’ll check my rainfall later. Edit: It appears that despite the short duration that I got 1”+.

Here we go again!GAZ116>119-SCZ047-048-051-312115- COASTAL CHATHAM-INLAND CHATHAM-INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND JASPER-COASTAL JASPER-BEAUFORT- 434 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2024 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BRYAN, CHATHAM, BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES... AT 434 PM EDT, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR GODLEY STATION TO FORT MCALLISTER, AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...STRONG WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT, UNSECURED OBJECTS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... POOLER, BLUFFTON, RICHMOND HILL, TYBEE ISLAND, WILMINGTON ISLAND, FORT PULASKI NATIONAL MONUMENT, BELLINGER HILL AREA, AND MIDTOWN SAVANNAH.

Finally a bounce of OISST 3.4 (may just be dead-cat):

12Z UKMET: way west (TCG 150 miles S of LA tip and moves NNW into LA) and pretty weak: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 27.0N 89.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 05.08.2024 120 27.0N 89.3W 1011 31 0000UTC 06.08.2024 132 28.6N 90.2W 1009 29 1200UTC 06.08.2024 144 30.0N 90.5W 1011 30 0000UTC 07.08.2024 156 30.8N 91.0W 1009 27 1200UTC 07.08.2024 168 31.5N 90.7W 1010 28

The 12Z JMA was also NE Gulf with landfall of weak low in FL panhandle. 0Z GFS a H in AL/W FL panhandle. So, 3 of 6 latest models’ runs in NE Gulf: UK, JMA, and GFS. My gut says this will end up an exclusively Gulf storm.

0Z UKMET: well W of 12Z run with it stalling in NE Gulf 50 miles S of Destin: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 24.2N 85.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.08.2024 108 24.2N 85.0W 1009 30 0000UTC 05.08.2024 120 25.9N 86.0W 1008 29 1200UTC 05.08.2024 132 28.1N 86.3W 1008 34 0000UTC 06.08.2024 144 28.8N 86.3W 1007 39 1200UTC 06.08.2024 156 29.5N 86.6W 1007 38 0000UTC 07.08.2024 168 29.7N 86.5W 1005 28

OISST based Nino 3.4 anomaly is still in a free fall. It just dropped another 0.1 and has now dropped a whopping 0.5C over the last 4 days to -0.33! That’s the fastest 4 day drop back to at least 2022! The equivalent RONI snapshot is quite possibly already approaching moderate Niña territory.

12Z Euro: forms at/near FL and turns NE/becomes a H; hits no land til Newfoundland.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas: A large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower activity due to environmental dry air. Conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi

12Z UKMET: similar to 0Z but weaker (TD vs TS) with trip from Key West vicinity into far E Gulf followed by turn into N FL; run ends with it near Jacksonville NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 25.0N 81.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.08.2024 108 25.0N 81.8W 1008 29 1200UTC 04.08.2024 120 26.8N 83.2W 1007 30 0000UTC 05.08.2024 132 28.0N 83.4W 1007 26 1200UTC 05.08.2024 144 29.2N 83.3W 1010 24 0000UTC 06.08.2024 156 30.2N 81.6W 1011 26 1200UTC 06.08.2024 168 30.0N 80.9W 1012 30

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas: A large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing limited shower activity due to dry air aloft. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

0Z Euro has a weak low on E coast of FL that moves offshore NE FL and strengthens to 1006 (possible TD) off SC moving toward NC at 240. So, Euro is closer to CMC/ICON than UKMET and nothing like GFS.

For C MDR system: 1) 0Z GFS turns left into Galveston as a H! 2) 0Z CMC forms off SE coast, center stays a little offshore SC/NC, and then becomes a H well offshore; ends run just off NE Nova Scotia as significant storm 3) 0Z ICON similar track to CMC but faster