GaWx

For Bermuda’s sake, I’m hopeful it continues to struggle even though they handle storms relatively well. One thing that ACE and SS scale don’t reflect on well is diameter of strong winds/size of storm. Ernesto may not make it to cat 3 or possibly even cat 2 though that’s only a small chance. Regardless, it being large a large cat 2 can be more impactful than a small cat 3, for example. Highest winds are normally just in a very small area, a small portion of the storm. Joe Bastardi has a “Power and Impact Scale” that is better reflective of impact than the SS scale. I’m saying that even though I’m not a big fan of his due to cold/snowy E US winter bias and not believing in AGW as significant. But on this I think he’s 100% right.

I savor autumn and especially winter for having much lower dewpoints than summer as much as for any other reason like being cooler. The winter could be the warmest on record and it would still be way more pleasant as well as way cooler than summer. Regarding snow or any wintry precip, that (even just a trace) is a relative rarity this far SE/near coast. So, I never expect any and thus not having any doesn’t make a winter unenjoyable. If it did, most would be unenjoyable. But fwiw, there hasn’t been even a T of wintry precip in this area since early Jan of 2018. So, it has been over 6.5 years. Even for way down here that is a record long period without even a T of wintry with records going back ~150 years. Old record is closer to 5 years.

1. Yes, 1966 was one of the most skewed of active (ACE of 140+) FULL seasons with ~61% of the 15 storm ACE from just Inez and Faith. However, we don’t yet know how skewed, if at all, 2024 will turn out since the vast majority of the season is still ahead of us ACE climowise (85%). If 2024 ends up near 200, Beryl and Ernesto combined would have no more than 25-30%. And what would the significance of skewed even mean, if anything, if it were to occur? 2. I agree that 1968 can’t reasonably be used as an analog. 3. Yeah, I agree that 2024 is not headed for being another 2005. 4. 1995-6 isn’t a good analog at all due to it having had a +PDO vs the projected strong -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave, it being near solar min vs 2024-25 near max, the strong early winter -AO/-NAO of 1995-6 vs +AO/+NAO expected for 2024-5, and the significant amount of GW since 1995-6. edit: 1995-6 QBO was slightly E vs projected W of 2024-5.

1) 0Z Euro: 100 miles W of Bermuda to SE Newfoundland 2) 0Z UKMET: 25 miles W of Bermuda then misses Canada HURRICANE ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 68.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.08.2024 0 22.3N 68.7W 993 48 1200UTC 15.08.2024 12 24.5N 69.4W 989 52 0000UTC 16.08.2024 24 26.4N 68.7W 984 50 1200UTC 16.08.2024 36 28.6N 67.5W 984 54 0000UTC 17.08.2024 48 30.6N 65.9W 980 55 1200UTC 17.08.2024 60 32.1N 65.2W 975 57 0000UTC 18.08.2024 72 33.0N 65.1W 977 58 1200UTC 18.08.2024 84 34.4N 65.0W 980 56 0000UTC 19.08.2024 96 36.9N 64.0W 972 64 1200UTC 19.08.2024 108 40.3N 61.7W 967 67 0000UTC 20.08.2024 120 43.8N 57.2W 971 66 1200UTC 20.08.2024 132 46.7N 49.5W 987 47 0000UTC 21.08.2024 144 49.8N 39.6W 989 43 1200UTC 21.08.2024 156 53.6N 28.1W 977 42 0000UTC 22.08.2024 168 POST-TROPICAL

Again the ICON (0Z) has a huge hit on Bermuda with the eye barely missing it to the W. SLP of center again drops to the low 940s and rainfall is 16”, which I think would be a big record-breaker. Hopefully it won’t be this extreme there. It then turns NE and skims far SE Newfoundland.

Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE APPROACHING BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 68.9W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 The satellite structure of Ernesto has somewhat improved tonight. A series of earlier SSMI/S 91 GHz passive microwave images showed the formation of a mid-level eye, and there have been recent hints of an eye trying to emerge in proxy-visible satellite images. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has fallen to 982 mb, and the aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 76 kt in the northeast quadrant. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 70 kt. The wind field remains quite broad and asymmetric, with the strongest aircraft winds well to the northeast of the center. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission into Ernesto is scheduled for tomorrow morning. Ernesto is now moving north-northwestward at 330/14 kt. The hurricane will continue on a north-northwestward to northward motion during the next day or so while moving through a break in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. The global models agree the upper trough that weakened the ridge will not capture Ernesto. As a result, Ernesto will move slower to the north-northeast and north while the hurricane approaches and moves near Bermuda Friday night and Saturday. Later this weekend, a second trough will move across the eastern U.S., and Ernesto should accelerate northeastward early next week within the deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, as the track guidance remains in good overall agreement. It is still too soon to know exactly how close Ernesto's center will move to Bermuda this weekend, but warnings will likely be required for the island on Thursday. While there is still evidence of some drier air nearby Ernesto, the very warm ocean waters and weak to moderate shear should promote some strengthening during the next couple of days. This is supported by the bulk of the intensity guidance, and the regional hurricane models still favor Ernesto reaching major hurricane intensity on Friday. The latest NHC prediction remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP corrected consensus. Some gradual weakening is forecast thereafter as Ernesto moves into a drier, more sheared environment. There are some indications that positive interaction with the second upper trough could cause Ernesto's intensity to level off or even slightly increase during the 60-96 h time period while still over warm waters. By 120 h, the model fields suggest Ernesto will be on the verge of losing tropical characteristics while accelerating over cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 23.0N 68.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 24.7N 69.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 26.8N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 28.6N 67.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 30.5N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 32.2N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 34.0N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 38.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

18Z GEFS has a moderate signal for potential increased activity 15-25N, 50-70W on 8/29 from an AEW that leaves Africa ~8/24. PWAT is above avg and mean SLP is below avg. Shear is ~avg. SSTs are ~85F, which are ~2-3F warmer than longterm normal. 12Z EPS has something fairly similar.

18Z Euro: 100 miles W of Bermuda giving them 9” of rainfall. SLP is 968 mb, but the run has SLP at 990 mb at 8PM EDT, 10 mb too high.

This appears to be strengthening steadily as has been expected and there could end up being a more rapid strengthening tonight, all pretty much expected for the most part. The 18Z ICON is brutal for Bermuda with 940 mb lowest SLP just to the east and 16-17” of rain due to it slowing near there. Hopefully both of these are way overdone. The 18Z GFS is also a near direct hit but with a not nearly as strong 966 mb just E. It has ~12” of rainfall. Hopefully rainfall like this, which I believe would be record breaking, won’t occur.

12Z EPS: centered around the operational with most members in the 970s to 960s near Bermuda

12Z Euro: slightly W of 6Z but well E of the 0Z that had shifted so far W from yesterday’s 12Z: this run blasts Bermuda with a cat 2 and 9-13” of rainfall (heaviest W end) with center passing ~50 miles W of W end. Then crosses SE Newfoundland followed by ET transition and a move into W Norway.

Getting afternoon pop-up early today as it started just after 1PM. Moving in a somewhat unusual SW direction. Second PM pop up since Debby and first in 3 days. Already letting up after a short heavy period. Edit: I ended up with only ~0.18”. MTD is 13.48”.

12Z UKMET: 50 miles SW of Bermuda (similar to 0Z) then moves ENE in N. Atlantic without threat to land (0Z had crossed Newfoundland): TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 67.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 14.08.2024 0 20.1N 67.3W 998 51 0000UTC 15.08.2024 12 22.5N 68.5W 995 51 1200UTC 15.08.2024 24 24.8N 68.9W 992 51 0000UTC 16.08.2024 36 26.9N 67.7W 989 50 1200UTC 16.08.2024 48 29.0N 66.1W 987 53 0000UTC 17.08.2024 60 31.2N 64.5W 981 62 1200UTC 17.08.2024 72 32.6N 63.7W 980 51 0000UTC 18.08.2024 84 33.0N 63.5W 979 56 1200UTC 18.08.2024 96 34.4N 63.0W 980 58 0000UTC 19.08.2024 108 36.4N 62.3W 975 64 1200UTC 19.08.2024 120 38.9N 60.3W 971 64 0000UTC 20.08.2024 132 41.7N 56.1W 967 72 1200UTC 20.08.2024 144 44.3N 49.0W 973 63 0000UTC 21.08.2024 156 46.9N 39.3W 978 54 1200UTC 21.08.2024 168 50.9N 28.6W 973 50

The ship sailed a few weeks ago on upper 20s+ NS predictions. But I feel that my 21 NS still has a shot though that’s likely near the high end of reasonable possibilities. I also think my 10H/5MH is very much still alive. Also, Aug 8th analogs suggested near 200 ACE.

0Z Euro: unlike 12Z which went 150 miles E of Bermuda, this run swerves W and misses Bermuda W by 175 miles followed by a LF on E Nova Scotia and SW Newfoundland!

Here are the 5 most skewed I could find for the full season of the active seasons (140+ ACE): 2021’s full season 146 ACE: ~59% of that (~86) from just 2 of the 21 storms! 2003’s full season 176 ACE: ~60% of that (~105) from just 2 of the 16 storms! 1966’s full season 145 ACE: ~61% of that (~88) from just 2 of the 15 storms 1899’s full season 151 ACE: ~70% of that (106) from just 2 of the 10 storms 1980’s full season 149 ACE: ~58% of that (~87) from just 2 of the 11 storms 2016’s full season 141 ACE: ~64% of that (~90) from just 3 of the 15 storms Edit: If Ernesto ends up with 24, that would mean 59 from just 2. But if 2024 ends up with ~200 ACE, the ACE from those two would be only ~30% of the total.

Good question. I have no idea. Here’s the level of early season skew vs that for the other very active early seasons: 2024 projected ACE thru 8/20: very skewed with 59 of 65 (91%) of ACE from 2 of 5 storms 2005: Dennis ~15; Emily ~29; so, 44 ACE between those 2 out of 85 ACE from first 9 storms; that’s not that skewed early 1933: not skewed early 1899: 60 of 69 ACE (87%) from 1 of 3; only of these seasons with a comparable early season skew to 2024 1886: not skewed early 1893: not skewed early So, 1899 is the only other highly skewed early on of the early very active seasons. But we don’t know how 2024 will end up skew-wise. I’m expecting still ~135 more ACE after Ernesto. If that’s well spread out, the season as a whole wouldn’t end up that skewed. By the way, 1899 for the season as a whole ended up highly skewed with ~106 (70%) of its entire season’s ACE of 151 from just 2 storms out of 10 total!

One more thing: having 65 ACE as of 8/20 would be vs a 1991-2020 avg of only 18.9. If we get 24 ACE during just 8/13-20, that would be a whopping 4 times the very active era’s 1991-2020 normal of only a mere 6 during that period!

By the way, having 65 ACE as of 8/20 would be vs a 1991-2020 avg of only 18.9: If we get 24 ACE during 8/13-20, that would be vs a 1991-2020 avg of a mere 6! So, that would be 4 times the average of a very active era.

Projected Aug 20 ACE W of 60W: 2024 could rank as high as 5th if total ACE gets to 65 1) 2005: 78 of 85 (92%) 2) 1886: 69 of 75 (92%) 3) 1899: 69 of 77 (90%) 4) 1933: 63 of 80 (79%) 5) 2024: 55 of 65 (85%) 1893 is way back with only 41 of 67 (61%) W of 60W

Projected Aug 20 ACE W of 60W: 2024 could rank as high as 5th if total ACE gets to 65 1) 2005: 78 of 85 (92%) 2) 1886: 69 of 75 (92%) 3) 1899: 69 of 77 (90%) 4) 1933: 63 of 80 (79%) 5) 2024: 55 of 65 (85%) 1893 is way back with only 41 of 67 (61%) W of 60W

Aug 8th ACE back to 1851 was from this: Aug 20th ACE back to 1851 came from me by projecting ahead from the Aug 8th ACE table. I was so curious that it was well worth the several hours of time to do it. I estimated ACE for Aug 9-20 for all years by looking at TS+ activity during that period. Though time consuming, it wasn’t all that hard to do once you know the ACE formula. It was actually fun!

I’m not at all trying to rush you. But since ACE is an important component from your perspective, I thought you might find this interesting (I just posted this in the main tropical thread): Based on model/NHC progs and considering how warm the SSTs are way up above Bermuda, it is a reasonable possibility that Ernesto could bring 2024 season to date ACE to ~65 as of Aug 20th. If 2024 is at 65 then, it would still be in 6th place, just one back of the 5th place as of Aug 8th: As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42). If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 6th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67). One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations.

Based on model/NHC progs and considering how warm the SSTs are way up above Bermuda, it is a reasonable possibility that Ernesto could bring 2024 season to date ACE to ~65 as of Aug 20th. If 2024 is at 65 then, it would still be in 6th place, just one back of the 5th place as of Aug 8th: As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42). If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 6th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67). One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations.