GaWx

I’m currently thinking 2/3 chance of a TCG by next week. Due largely to this AEW, I expect the first uptick (as long as I’ve been tracking this daily) on the Euro Weeklies, especially for the week of 9/2-8. Probably some uptick on 9/9-15 as well just due to the end of this.

12Z EPS: notable uptick in members active with this E Atlantic AEW vs earlier runs.

12Z Euro: from main AEW being tracked has a TS just SW of PR moving WNW at 240 hrs

But it would still almost certainly end up a weak to borderline moderate Niña for all practical purposes including on RONI.

Regarding the AEW/activity in the far E ATL on the 12Z runs: 1. ICON at 180 has a TS at 19N/59W moving WNW aimed N of the Leewards. It has had a sfc low from this since the 12Z 8/23 run. 2. GFS has it but doesn’t develop it til it gets to the Gulf on 9/9. It then ends the run as a H just offshore from Apalachicola, FL, about to landfall near there. 3. GEFS: active like 6Z with the lead wave along with some members developing the followup MDR wave. 4. CMC: has a weak reflection of this same AEW at the surface (stronger than 0Z run) that moves WNW to S Bahamas at 240. 5. UKMET: no TCG 6. Euro: not out yet

1. Agreed it will very likely be closer to avg on Sept 1. However, the 3 main 0Z ensembles as well as 6Z GEFS agree that the highest concentration of members with a TCG is in the MDR 45-60W between 8/31 and 9/3. Overall concentration looks a bit higher vs most earlier runs. This is pretty close to when/where 23 AI-Euro runs in a row had TCG as well as TCGs on recent ICON runs. Chances seem pretty good for the next TCG during the first few days of Sept. even though the AI-Euro ironically abandoned its near Leeward Island TCG two days ago. So, we’ll see. If there is a TCG then when considering the near record warmth in many parts of the W basin, that would have the potential to be a big ACE producer. Unfortunately, it could threaten the CONUS. I’ve been enjoying the lowered stress resulting from this recent quiet. The party may be over. We’ll see. 2. I believe that this season will end up backloaded as well as concentrated in the W part of the basin due to less favorable conditions in the E basin due to a variety of reasons, some unknown.

Lol, we were both posting about ATL Niña at same time. I think that this combo of factors (ATL Nino, record warm higher latitude ATL warmth, and other factors including unknown) along with considering the near record warm Caribbean/Gulf, the Pacific Niña, and history/analog seasons suggests two things to me to likely occur: 1. Most intense activity/most of remaining ACE will be in W part of basin. 2. A tendency toward a backloaded season

This and other possible factors have been discussed heavily in recent days over at that favorite other BB. The quick answer is that nobody really knows as there’s disagreement even among pro-mets but that it is probably a combo of factors, some unknown: 1. Your link is referring to an Atlantic La Niña. The record cooling refers to the fastest cooling on record (back to 1982) in the E Atlantic along and near the equator. Keep in mind that on a RONI type of basis, the level of cool there is probably ~0.5C cooler than what the following graph shows. The graph shows something akin to the Pacific ONI, which doesn’t take into account very warm surrounding tropical waters. Anyway, it cooled from Mar to July from an Atlantic Nino +1.15C anom (~+0.65C on RONI type of basis) to on the border of Atlantic Niña -0.5C anom (~-1.0C on RONI type of basis) meaning that it cooled ~1.65C (record pace for 4 month period): More great stuff on Atlantic La Niña that Webb referred to (this from 2021): https://cpaess.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/meetings/2020/presentations/kim-presentation.pdf 2. Another possible contributing factor is the record heat in higher latitudes of the Atlantic: This tweet from late yesterday is from a New Orleans pro-met who specializes in tropical:

The 3 main 0Z ensemble agree that the highest concentration of members with a TCG is in the MDR 45-60W between 8/31 and 9/3. Overall concentration looks a bit higher vs most earlier runs. This is pretty close to when/where 21 AI-Euro runs in a row had TCG as well as TCGs on recent ICON runs. Chances seem pretty good but we’ll see.

Euro Weeklies are still not giving in to more active. Sunday’s had member mean of 27 ACE for the next 4 weeks vs 1991-2020 avg of 58. If relative quiet were to verify, they’d deserve major kudos for being so persistent. Regardless, they’re still calling for some activity and not anywhere near dead.

You’re off on the month with the freezes that absolutely devastated the 2023 GA peach crop. It was March, not May. This was the mid-March cold snap that resulted about a month after the 2/16/23 major SSWE. After “one of the warmest Februarys on record for Georgia,” Knox said, those varieties came out of dormancy early and prepared to bloom just in time for mercilessly freezing weather in March. https://www.gpb.org/news/2023/07/05/dire-situation-what-caused-georgias-catastrophic-peach-crop-failure Most of GA’s peaches are grown just SW of Macon. Macon had freezes on 3/15, 16, 20, and 21. Those were the last freezes of the season: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ffc

Thanks, Charlie. I just figured out the reason for the misleading info. I just found a link in Hawkins’ article to this article written by James Dinneen, a science and environmental reporter: https://www.new-scientist.com/article/2444394-part-of-the-atlantic-is-cooling-at-record-speed-and-nobody-knows-why/ From this: “Part of the Atlantic is cooling at record speed and nobody knows why” is the headline “After over a year of record-high global sea temperatures, the equatorial Atlantic is cooling off more quickly than ever recorded, which could impact weather around the world. Over the past three months, the shift from hot to cool temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean has happened at record speed. This emerging ‘Atlantic Niña’ pattern comes just ahead of an expected transition to a cooler La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, and these back-to-back events could have ripple effects on weather worldwide.” Then within the article I saw this very important note: “Article amended on 22 August 2024. We clarified that warming is happening in part of the Atlantic and that long-term warming signals are not covered in the graph” The rest of the article there is paywalled. But then I found another link to the original article that isn’t paywalled: https://archive.ph/2024.08.20-103704/https://www.newscientist.com/article/2444394-the-atlantic-is-cooling-at-record-speed-and-nobody-knows-why/ From this: “We are starting to see that the global mean ocean temperatures are going down a bit,” says Pedro DiNezio at the University of Colorado Boulder. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), global sea surface temperatures this past July were slightly cooler than in July 2023 – ending a 15-month streak of record-high average ocean temperatures.” Then further down is this graph, which seems to be the key to the miscommunication and thus lead to the amendment note in the paywalled link that I bolded above. Focus on the far right, where 2024 is shown with a rapid cooling of anomalies from ~+1.15C in Mar to ~-0.5C in July or an anom. cooling of ~1.65C in just 4 months. So, evidently JB, himself, or someone else JB read misinterpreted that the entire or at least a large portion of the Atlantic cooled by 1.65C in just 4 months when in reality that was the case for just the (Nino portion of the?) eq. Atlantic. Then that lead to the need to amend the Dinneen article. But unfortunately there remains a huge problem. I’m not expecting JB to clarify because the misinterpretation of “record cooling of the Atlantic” fits his narrative of the recent underwater seismic activity drop leading to significant ocean/global cooling. @roardog@donsutherland1

Hey snowman, FYI, I couldn’t see what’s at your Facebook link. This may be because I don’t have a FB account. Are you able to copy and paste it?

Today on his free Saturday Summary, JB reiterated that not only is the Atlantic cooling, the entire globe is cooling due to a lagged response to reduced underwater seismic activity. Does anyone have any reliable data source that actually shows this “record” speed of cooling?

The tropics look like they may get active again in just over a week. If so, that would mean the quiet period would end up under 2 weeks long. Not long at all unfortunately.

The SE had one notably cold week in early to mid-March largely attributed to the -NAO/-AO caused by the 2/16/23 major SSW. The -NAO started 2/26 and the -AO started 3/4. The cold took its sweet time to get here due to the stubborn RNA and was also shortlived. But it still got here within 3 weeks.

But the CONUS has already had 2 H landfalls and it’s still pretty early. That’s pretty rare for this early. Since 1950 only 2020, 2005, 2004, 1986, 1985, and 1959 had 2+ CONUS H landfalls by Aug 31st.

Regarding high solar/W for all ENSO, there are 9 winters since 1948 as I listed earlier today. Of those nine, seven had at least one major SSW and two of those seven had two: 57-8: 1/31 59-60: 1/17 78-9: 2/22 80-1: 2/6 and 3/4 90-1: none listed 99-00: 3/20 01-02: 12/31 and 2/18 13-14: none listed 22-23: 2/16

On what are you basing it taking at least 1-2 months for blocking pattern to come after a major SSW? Per @Stormchaserchuck1 it takes less time especially later in the season.

It’s crucial what years Joe is including. I see that his high solar/W map has a BN SE….hmm. Since 1948 there are only two Niña/W winters with high solar (though not necessarily right at max): 99-00 (Roni -1.7)(NN SE) and 22-3 (Roni -0.8)(warm SE). Also, both had strong -PDO. Thus, these are the 2 best analogs for QBO/solar. But Joe undoubtedly included others in his set because those two alone averaged mild in SE. The other high solar/W have these Roni’s/PDO: 57-8: +2.0/+ terrible analog/very cold SE 59-60: 0/+ poor/cool SE 78-9: +0.2/mod - fair at best/cool SE 80-1: 0/+ poor/cool SE 90-1: +0.6/strong - fair at best/warm SE 01-02: -0.2/strong - pretty good/mild SE 13-14: -0.5/mod - pretty good/cool SE So, best analogs: 1999-0, 2022-3 Next best analogs: 2001-2, 2013-4 No telling what of these Joe included. He may have included ~all of these to come up with his high solar/W, which if so would imho be misleading for 2024-5 forecasting. With the cool El Ninoish look in the SE on his map, I’m suspecting he’s also including some or all of 57-8, 59-60, 78-9, and 13-4. The only of those I’d consider a decent analog is 13-4. @40/70 Benchmark

GT!!!!! Wooooo! Ooops, wx thread…PC and warm.

The 6Z Euro-AIFS has a TC that originates from a TCG in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands ~Sept 2nd. This makes it the 21st run in a row with a TCG near the Leewards ~9/2. This goes all of the way back to the 6Z 8/19 run! You can still see all of these runs on Tropical Tidbits.

Thanks. JB putting a lot of weight on this article isn’t surprising because it fits his narrative of cooling oceans after a drop in underwater seismic levels. 1. But and this isn’t directed at you: who’s Joshua Hawkins? Not a met/climatologist: “Josh Hawkins has been writing for over a decade, covering science, gaming, and tech culture. He also is a top-rated product reviewer with experience in extensively researched product comparisons, headphones, and gaming devices. Whenever he isn’t busy writing about tech or gadgets, he can usually be found enjoying a new world in a video game, or tinkering with something on his computer.” https://bgr.com/author/joshua-hawkins/ 2. Hawkins says this: “The Atlantic Ocean is cooling at an exponential rate, and nobody is sure why. It's been more than a year of record-high global sea temperatures, including being close to the collapse of the AMOC. Despite those troubles, though, the Atlantic is now experiencing something quite baffling-temperatures are cooling, and scientists are scrambling to figure out what's going on.” Where is the evidence that the Atlantic is cooling at an exponential rate? Again, not directed at you, roardog.

JB has been harping on a significant cooling of oceans overall in recent months. He’s implying this is due to reduced underwater seismic activity and is thus very excited. But the problem I have is finding this cooldown! I’m still seeing near record warmth in many areas. Thus I’m confused. Does anyone here know about a significant worldwide averaged ocean cooling? If so please post any links.

Thanks for pointing this out. By the way, note that same warm anom spot that’s on most of the WB CFS over N Mich/N L Mich (+1C) while just 200 mi S (where it is almost always much colder on these WB CFS) it is -7C. So, a whopping 8C difference! And then note the cold to the N of the warm spot. Like clockwork. Keep in mind that the bogus map is merely a control run. To compare, here’s a much more believable Jan CFS map from TT, the avg of the last 12 runs: